SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

On stealing Communism: We'll need about 2300epps on Mao by ~T200 to steal it. And that's only if we have a city 4 tiles from MOscow that we gift to him, as I show in this post. We could put that city on the promontory south of Moscow. Not sure how likely it is we'll have 2300epps on him at that point.

Btw, Mao running Confucianism, that is, "the religion we're in at the time," loses us 15% off the cost. What we want is our religion in the city we gift to Mao, and Mao running a different religion.

 

[bcool]

re: worker steals

I'm not convinced your plan is safer. It gives De Gaulle 5 turns to bring a swordsman/spearmen down...

The warrior is either at risk or scares away the 2nd worker if we DON'T capture the 2nd worker.
So do we want to risk taking the worker and getting killed or play it safe (fortify in the forest) and scare the worker away?

The other solution which seems more risky that I can see is moving one chariot within 2 of Lyons 1NW (which will likely get it killed by a swordsman or spear) but it would block 3 of the unfogged tiles from getting at the warrior.

Not an easy question no matter how you look it, it seems to me.

 

[bcool]

Re: espionage

If we focused all of our ep at Mao, I would guess we would have about 1600 ep by the time we are ready to steal it. Might be worth focusing our ep at Mao.

I thought there was a discount if you had the holy city as well as shared a religion with the target city.

 

[LowtherCastle]

re: worker steals

I'm not convinced your plan is safer. It gives De Gaulle 5 turns to bring a swordsman/spearmen down...

The warrior is either at risk or scares away the 2nd worker if we DON'T capture the 2nd worker.
So do we want to risk taking the worker and getting killed or play it safe (fortify in the forest) and scare the worker away?

The other solution which seems more risky that I can see is moving one chariot within 2 of Lyons 1NW (which will likely get it killed by a swordsman or spear) but it would block 3 of the unfogged tiles from getting at the warrior.

Not an easy question no matter how you look it, it seems to me.

The warrior doesn't scare the worker if you DoW, capture the eastern worker with 2 chariots, then move the warrior 1S. Then next turn you move the warrior 1NE and the worker is free to move SW and continue roading. The only problem with that plan is if dG moves an archer 1NW from Rheims, in which case to escape, the warrior has to threaten the worker's 1SW tile or our warrier could simply disband. That's what I would do in that case, because the worker is worth more than the warrior.

Whether dG will send a sword or spear is part of the normal risk of worker stealing. We just take that as it comes. That doesn't really have anything to do with the warrior though. Most likely, dG is collecting his metal units in Orleans or Paris in a stack, so I'm not concerned about that. Furthermore, by DoWing and cease firing 2t later, we're going to discombobulate dG anyway and his units will be going willy nilly back and forth from his cities. That's the charm of the quick cease fire. It's over before he knows it, as long as we stay away from his units.

The main concern I see is a unit that's within reach of the western worker right now.

Re: espionage

If we focused all of our ep at Mao, I would guess we would have about 1600 ep by the time we are ready to steal it. Might be worth focusing our ep at Mao.

I thought there was a discount if you had the holy city as well as shared a religion with the target city.

Evidently it used to be that way, but not any more. I don't konw when it changed, but I tested it at the beginning of this SG and what I showed in the linked post is what we can get. That city also has the shrine, but no bonus.

 

[bcool]

sorry misread your plan, I thought we were at war for the full 5 turns. I see now that you ceasefire after 2 turns...

Edit: Go Giants!

 

[bcool]

Okay so I'll play tomorrow night (about 20-22 hours from now) with the plan posted, but I'll use Lc's plan to steal the workers.

disbanding the warrior if he ends up next to a french archer.]

I'll stop with major developments (war declarations etc) and I'll stop if I'm torn about any decisions.

I guess we need to decide to switch ep to mao or not too. I'm inclined to do it.

 

[Mitchum]

Edit: Go Giants!

Go Rangers... You beat my Padres.

Re worker steal, don't forget about the archer north of Pigs.

Re espionage, I put the possibility of stealing Communism from Mao above knowing what Gandhi is researching. Worst case would be to put the minimum epp on Gandhi to see what he is researching and the rest on Mao.

To not waste the epp that we do have invested on Gandhi, once the value of knowing what he is researching drops, should we build a spy and at least steal Theology or some other tech from him? IIRC, we already have enough epp to do it now...

 

[babybluepants]

I appreciate your openness, bbp. I think it's crucial that we express our concerns as well as our various ideas. Thanks.

Well, I disagreed with Oracle CS and pretty much every significant decision since. I got very frustrated around this point last game, though I wasn't as vocal. Was wrong then, so maybe I am now, too. It's just that it gets difficult to contribute after a certain point.

The Colossus can be far more valuable than either TGL or the Parthenon on this map, if we choose to take advantage of it. We have that choice because we know that all the key AIs (except Stalin) are within reach without Astro. Hence we don't need to obsolete the Colossus until after the entire Assembly Line and Mining, Inc, and Sushi, Inc. tech paths. I can tell you when we do finally obsolete it, it will HURT. BADLY. Like 1000cpt or something. That's just how anti-mediocre it can be, if we so choose.

Take for instance the Fish/Clams island (the awkward no-hammer one... ). It needs a granary, lh, and ch. Could also have a forge and poprush the lib/uni if we want. But at pop13, which is can easily reach with two food resources, with Colossus it will produce 13*3+1+4=44cpt. By comparison, our entire pop13 empire, as of T100, is producing...50cpt.

I never said we wouldn't settle that city nor that we wouldn't settle it very soon. You're grossly exaggerating, though. Your example is only 12-13c from Colossus in that city, and that won't happen until after we want Astro regardless of TR's, and our empire is 30+ cities. 1000cpt is something you'll have a hard time reaching across a massive empire, period, let alone from a +1c bonus per coast tile.

That said, obviously the Colossus is useful. Every wonder can be made a case for. If you guys wanna build it, go ahead. I still disagree with teching MC now and investing in forge-Col in Fish, as stated.

Edit: deleted my little rant...

 

[babybluepants]

Stealing Communism:
I guess, but it might be almost as much trouble as it's worth, assuming we can Lib it. More likely, we need to crush him around that time and simply extort it.
I really think we need to bulb Philo, if at all possible, to increase our potential return from Lib, btw.

 

[Mitchum]

Stealing Communism:
I guess, but it might be almost as much trouble as it's worth, assuming we can Lib it. More likely, we need to crush him around that time and simply extort it.

Good point. We could get Mao down to one city, get Communism for peace, gift him an ice ball, and then take his "last" city ten turns later.

Keep contributing, bbp. Your voice is always heard, even if it doesn't seem like it some times.

 

[Mitchum]

Double post. Dang 6" screen.

 

[LowtherCastle]

You're grossly exaggerating, though. Your example is only 12-13c from Colossus in that city, and that won't happen until after we want Astro regardless of TR's, and our empire is 30+ cities. 1000cpt is something you'll have a hard time reaching across a massive empire, period, let alone from a +1c bonus per coast tile.

Yes, of course we won't be working 1000 coastal tiles. I rounded up... The Colossus will pay back in a major way is my point. We plan to build forges in all our major cities anyway, for the +3 and because we'll be running a workshop economy, so the sooner we build them, the sooner we get the +25% hammer discount on all our remaining infrastructure. So we might as well also build the Colossus because it's so outrageously cheap for its return on investment (when you're not beelining Astro). That said, bbp, if you're point is that we're not in a big hurry to build it, I would agree. The AIs are not going to beat us to it and its benefit right now is modest.

But I don't understand why we would want Astro before Assembly Line + Mining,Inc + Sushi,Inc.? We'll be able to build observatories in a flash after that and we only really need them in a few research cities and later our space-parts cities. What am I missing?

Stealing Communism:
... More likely, we need to crush him around that time and simply extort it.

it's nearly impossible to get any kind of decent techs from DoP after the early game

 

[LowtherCastle]

To not waste the epp that we do have invested on Gandhi, once the value of knowing what he is researching drops, should we build a spy and at least steal Theology or some other tech from him? IIRC, we already have enough epp to do it now...

This is an intriguing idea. This would make building Hagia attractive. With Gandhi at 105% espionage rate, Theology would cost us about 554epps. That would take us a while to accumulate, even if we build a ch and work an espionage specialist. The question is, would Gandhi build Hagia that fast?

Btw, there seem to be some confusion about how espionage stealing works. It does not get any cheaper, the more people know Theology. We can minimize the cost by:

1. having a spy in the city 5t = -50%.
2. having our religion in the city when he's running a different religion = -15%
3. minimizing the distance cost. Galley City costs us +6%. (The absolute minimum is +4%.)
4. Maximinzing our total espionage points ever invested versus Gandhi's total espionage points ever invested = -50% max. (Right now this is +5% for Gandhi.)

The starting cost is 1.5X the tech cost, so the formula appears to be something like this for Theology (780):

steal tech cost (Theology) = (780*1.5)(.5)(.85)(1.06)(1.05) = 554epps​

I don't know the rounding factors, so this equation tends to be off somewhat from when I test it, but not by much.

Note that the "total espionage points ever invested" includes epps we've spent and includes all epps we've assigned toward any and all AIs.

 

[bcool]

Based on those numbers,
Theology ep could be achieved with 2 turns of 100% espionage. (maybe 1 turn as we build up)

Something to consider in coming turn sets...

 

[LowtherCastle]

GLib in Pigs looks good to me. Without the early Parthenon in MOscow probably, so the MOscow GP doesn't get speeded up too soon. We'd have to figure out when to run sci. Also, it might make snese to go Aesth-Lit in that case.

Msocw could use the hammers for other stuff instead then, plus we might make one of teh settlers in Fish Pigs. I also wouldn't mind delaying the Colossus a bit.

 

[babybluepants]

That said, bbp, if you're point is that we're not in a big hurry to build it, I would agree. The AIs are not going to beat us to it and its benefit right now is modest.

Yeah, I guess. I deleted most of my post, 'cause it was kinda mean-spirited, but the main thing I'm objecting to here is what I see as an apparent preference for complex maneuvering and maximizing commerce over stable growth & development. In other words, Fish should get LH and further tile improvements first - that kind of thing. I don't really see the mad rush to get forges and there is a possibility of trading (or stealing) techs in a little while, which is why I keep arguing for Aest-Lit first.

 

[babybluepants]

Extorting techs:
Hmmm... Why do I feel like I've done it? Maybe it's just that I typically cap them and take the tech in trade immediately after. I guess that's not an option here.

 

[bcool]

We are playing against several industrial AI (double production on forges and +50% on wonders) Are you sure we have plenty of time for the Colossus?

I wouldn't mind delaying or skipping the Parthenon, and building a few more workers and/or military units (good chance De Gaulle is coming at us either thru Gandhi or directly at us)

I think MC first gives us more options and gets us closer to macemen if we need them. Also beelining Literature won't speed up the the Great Library in Pigs.
If we want to build TGL there I don't think we want to build a settler there.

Edit: in the test game Rosey built the Colossus in 300 A.D.

 

[babybluepants]

MC or Lit first is not that big a deal, I guess, if we're getting both in the short term. Pigs won't be able to build it immediately anyway. If we're going for it there, though, we should really focus on getting it asap. We may need to invest a turn in walls at some point, just in case.

How many units do we really need in the short term? Are you guys hoping to actually steal Rheims? Doesn't seem likely to me. The chariots will give us some warning before DG's stack comes - hopefully we can spy on the stack ahead of time, too. Building a spy soonish might be good. I like the Theo steal plan, but we could maybe send it to France to observe the troop build-up for a while.

 

[LowtherCastle]

the main thing I'm objecting to here is what I see as an apparent preference for complex maneuvering and maximizing commerce over stable growth & development. In other words, Fish should get LH and further tile improvements first - that kind of thing. I don't really see the mad rush to get forges and there is a possibility of trading (or stealing) techs in a little while, which is why I keep arguing for Aest-Lit first.

I tested Gandhi trading MC and he wouldn't do it, even when he hadn't built a forge yet, so I'm skeptical, but I kind of prefer Aesth-Lit first now, because I think we want GLib asap if at all, to help beat the Moscow GP. Plus, Gandhi could even build it in his capital.

Forges usually make sense to build asap, but we should obviously be smart about it.

We are playing against several industrial AI (double production on forges and +50% on wonders) Are you sure we have plenty of time for the Colossus?

I wouldn't mind delaying or skipping the Parthenon, and building a few more workers and/or military units (good chance De Gaulle is coming at us either thru Gandhi or directly at us)

I think MC first gives us more options and gets us closer to macemen if we need them. Also beelining Literature won't speed up the the Great Library in Pigs.
If we want to build TGL there I don't think we want to build a settler there.

Edit: in the test game Rosey built the Colossus in 300 A.D.

My bad, I meant a settler in FIsh, but you make a good point about Roosy. I don't think we need to worry too much about dG attacking us. But do pay attention to his war plans after we cease fire. See if the WHEOOHRN gets canceled. I think it might. THen of course, it can restart on any turn...

MC or Lit first is not that big a deal, I guess, if we're getting both in the short term. Pigs won't be able to build it immediately anyway. If we're going for it there, though, we should really focus on getting it asap. We may need to invest a turn in walls at some point, just in case.

How many units do we really need in the short term? Are you guys hoping to actually steal Rheims? Doesn't seem likely to me. The chariots will give us some warning before DG's stack comes - hopefully we can spy on the stack ahead of time, too. Building a spy soonish might be good. I like the Theo steal plan, but we could maybe send it to France to observe the troop build-up for a while.

I definitely want to capture Rheims. Asap. That's why I don't think we should be pillaging the road any more, if he rebuilds it. We can pillage the road to Tours though.

Btw, I view Tours as a temporary iceball, when we get that far. Then we can replace it with the real one later on.