SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

I take it you didn't bring the medic?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Did Churchill suicide his axe?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Maybe just kill the new archer this turn? with 6.8 CRIII mace

Yes, try this first, and see what the odds are for the next one...

 

[bcool]

Churchill attacked my chariot on the hill 1SW of Paris, killing the chariot. I killed his axe with the medic Macemen. The medic macemen waits on the hill 1SW of Paris but there is a swordsmen coming from Lyons.

I've uploaded again

Spoiler :

Turn 155, 900 AD: The enemy has been spotted near Paris!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Moscow has grown to size 16.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Fish has grown to size 7.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Fish can hurry Maceman for 2? with 25? overflow and +1? for 43 turns.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Siberia has grown to size 6.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Pigs has grown to size 9.
Turn 155, 900 AD: GP Farm has grown to size 8.
Turn 155, 900 AD: GP Farm can hurry Confucian Missionary for 2? with 32? overflow, 2? added to the treasury, and +1? for 44 turns.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Cuba has grown to size 4.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bahamas has grown to size 5.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bahamas can hurry Galley for 1? with 12? overflow and +1? for 49 turns.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bermuda has grown to size 6.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Rheims has grown to size 5.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Rheims can hurry Courthouse for 2? with 12? overflow and +1? for 18 turns.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bananas has grown to size 3.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Churchill has 100 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Roosevelt has 110 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Pigs are about to expand.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Paris are about to expand.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) (8.00) vs De Gaulle's Archer (5.92)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Combat Odds: 83.4%
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Plot Defense: +27%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Fortify: +20%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Hills Defense: +75%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 22 (65/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 22 (43/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 22 (21/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) is hit for 17 (49/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) is hit for 17 (32/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) is hit for 17 (15/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow) is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer has defeated Catherine's Maceman 6 (Moscow)!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Your Maceman 6 (Moscow) has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 5 (Moscow) (8.00) vs De Gaulle's Archer (5.01)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Combat Odds: 94.1%
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Plot Defense: +27%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Hills Defense: +25%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 5 (Moscow) is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 5 (Moscow) is hit for 15 (70/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Archer is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 5 (Moscow) has defeated De Gaulle's Archer!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Your Maceman 5 (Moscow) has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 7 (Fish) (8.00) vs De Gaulle's Swordsman (4.87)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Combat Odds: 96.0%
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Extra Combat: +20%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Plot Defense: +27%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 7 (Fish) is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 7 (Fish) is hit for 15 (70/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 7 (Fish) is hit for 15 (55/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 7 (Fish) is hit for 15 (40/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 7 (Fish) has defeated De Gaulle's Swordsman!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Your Maceman 7 (Fish) has destroyed a Swordsman!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 3 (Fish) (6.88) vs De Gaulle's Swordsman (4.51)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Combat Odds: 90.6%
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Plot Defense: +27%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 3 (Fish) is hit for 15 (71/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Swordsman is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 3 (Fish) has defeated De Gaulle's Swordsman!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Your Maceman 3 (Fish) has destroyed a Swordsman!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Your Catapult 1 (Fish) has reduced the defenses of Orleans to 0%!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 2 (Fish) (8.80) vs De Gaulle's Axeman (2.16)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Combat Odds: 100.0%
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Plot Defense: +25%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Axeman is hit for 27 (5/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 2 (Fish) is hit for 14 (86/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle's Axeman is hit for 27 (0/100HP)
Turn 155, 900 AD: Catherine's Maceman 2 (Fish) has defeated De Gaulle's Axeman!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Your Maceman 2 (Fish) has destroyed a Axeman!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bermuda will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Churchill has 100 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Roosevelt has 110 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Gandhi has 70 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: You are the worst enemy of De Gaulle, Mao Zedong, Stalin the Despicable.
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle is the worst enemy of Churchill, Gandhi.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Pigs are about to expand.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Paris are about to expand.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Roosevelt will trade Feudalism
Turn 155, 900 AD: Gandhi will trade Feudalism
Turn 155, 900 AD: Will Trade Map: De Gaulle, Gandhi, Roosevelt
Turn 155, 900 AD: Will Sign Peace Treaty: De Gaulle
Turn 155, 900 AD: You have plundered 15? from the Cottage!
Turn 155, 900 AD: Fish will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Siberia will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: GP Farm will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bahamas will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bermuda will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bananas will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Churchill has 100 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Roosevelt has 110 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Gandhi has 70 gold available for trade.
Turn 155, 900 AD: You are the worst enemy of De Gaulle, Mao Zedong, Stalin the Despicable.
Turn 155, 900 AD: De Gaulle is the worst enemy of Churchill, Gandhi.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Pigs are about to expand.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Paris are about to expand.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Roosevelt will trade Feudalism
Turn 155, 900 AD: Gandhi will trade Feudalism
Turn 155, 900 AD: Will Trade Map: De Gaulle, Gandhi, Roosevelt
Turn 155, 900 AD: Will Sign Peace Treaty: De Gaulle
Turn 155, 900 AD: Fish will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Siberia will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: GP Farm will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bahamas will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bermuda will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: Bananas will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 155, 900 AD: You have discovered Engineering!
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Pigs have expanded!
Turn 155, 900 AD: You have trained Confucian Missionary in GP Farm. Work has now begun on a Spy.
Turn 155, 900 AD: The borders of Paris have expanded!

Turn 156, 920 AD: Fish has grown to size 6.
Turn 156, 920 AD: Siberia has grown to size 7.
Turn 156, 920 AD: GP Farm has grown to size 7.
Turn 156, 920 AD: GP Farm can hurry Spy for 2? with 32? overflow, 2? added to the treasury, and +1? for 53 turns.
Turn 156, 920 AD: Bahamas has grown to size 5.
Turn 156, 920 AD: Bermuda has grown to size 7.
Turn 156, 920 AD: Bananas has grown to size 4.
Turn 156, 920 AD: Paris can hurry Trireme for 2? with 26? overflow and +1? for 18 turns.

 

[babybluepants]

NVM
Edit: holy crap, what a x-post!

 

[babybluepants]

I think we should sacrifice the cats right now, take the city and sign a CF.

 

[bcool]

We killed the archer newly produced macemen down to 3.4 health. 84.29% vs axe. catapult has 10.38% vs. swordsman.

 

[bcool]

I honestly don't know if we can take the city even with sacrificing both.

 

[babybluepants]

I think we should be able to. The first will cause some damage, the second a lot more. Don't take my word for it, though. The problem is we may need to clean up spears with chariots in the end, which would suck.

Maybe we should just pause and get more opinions? This is tricky.

Edit: was the settler in Bahamas part of the plan. I missed that. Where is it for? Should we just put the OF into Moai instead?

 

[bcool]

This is the best chance plan that I can come up with. Hit him with 1 catapult now. Swordsmen would likely be hurt significantly. Kill axe and maybe swordsmen with remaining 2 somewhat healthy macemen. Hit the spear with the 2nd catapult. Use the swordsmen to kill 2 spearmen. Then Use chariots to kill severely (hopefully) wounded spearmen from catapult, and Use 2nd chariot to kill heavily wounded archer. (severely wounded macemen is a backup)

 

[babybluepants]

That sounds reasonably ok. I think we need to hit the sword with a cat in any case, and see what happens...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Let me study this for a few minutes. I had to reboot my computer.

 

[bcool]

The other option is to move the 3rd catapult and wait for barrage until next turn. I'll get at least one more opioion. I'll wait a few hours for it. I'll have dinner unless the 2nd opinion comes quickly.

x-post

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay. These are the odds.

You can see the first one versus the archer.
The second mace will have 98.88 odds versus the axe.
The third mace will drop to 75% versus the sword. Unfortunately. I was hoping we could throw both cats against spears ehre they might have really good odds.

Anyway, I'd take it one by one. First our best mace versus the archer. Then our next best versus the axe. If both those go, then suicide a cat. This should give our thrid mace winnable odds. Then I'm not sure if its better to suicide another cat first or go with the swords next. It depends on the odds which I didn't calculate. We'll suicide the cat if the sword don't have close to 95% odds, I guess.

That's what I do.

Edit:

Okay, the swords versus the spears this turn will be about 90%. After the suicide it will go up to 96%.

If you can win the first two battles, we should have this.

Hold on just a minute more and I'll check about suiciding the cat at the very beginning, to see how that looks.

-------------

Okay, suiciding the cat at teh beginning only gives us 90% odds between teh third mace and the sword, unless the cat beats the archer down so bad that the archer is third. BUt I don't trust that solution. I'd go for the top solution.

mace-archer
mace-axe
cat
mace-sword
cat
sword-spear
sword-spear
chariot-spear
...

 

[bcool]

The archer is dead. The axe odds 84.29%. You don't think a catapult vs the sword is a good idea? It would wound the axe...

 

[LowtherCastle]

There's another problem with suiciding the cat first: it might not do damage to all of the healthy units. It can be selected to damage the lame archer, but do no damage because it's too lame.

 

[LowtherCastle]

The archer is dead. The axe odds 84.29%. You don't think a catapult vs the sword is a good idea? It would wound the axe...

Hmmm... that's worse than I thought. I guess suicide now. Are you sure you clicked on the CRIII mace against the axe?

 

[bcool]

yes it was the CRIII

 

[LowtherCastle]

I can't understand that, but whatever. Suicide the cat. Those odds are too risky.

 

[bcool]

suicided the catapult, sword down to 3.8, macemen CRIII killed axe