SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[Andronicus]

I find myself confused by much of the discussion
Perhaps thats due to my state of mind , perhaps the time I've been away from civ3?

Anyway, I'd like to discuss the situation from a different perspective
I wonder if our priority shouldnt be getting more cities first, boost science second.
In the short term this slows science, but we will need to expand some time and the sooner we do it the sooner we can reap the benefits
I'm looking at the game trying to see how best to expand our empire.

I see
1) Aztec - Japan island
the obvious first target for conquering, neither has iron hooked up, both have horses, but only Aztecs have them connected
2) Roman island + ? land to W (beyond Aztecs are sea tiles)
- potential land for us - fertile, has iron, ? shared by another civ, poss 2nd target - needs exploration first
3) India - Portugal (the purple that's not Korea)
- support India in war v Portugal so they take over Portugal
? later take over for ourselves (low distance corruption)
4) Korea - Spain (connects Portugal - India)
- assist Korea take over Spain
5) Maya - Inca (the pink) - Ottomen (connects India - Portugal)
- assist Ottomen to take over Incans +/- Mayans - ? leave Chicken Itza for us.

These are all the islands we can see so far that we can trade lux with pre-Astronomy (some of the coastal trade routes we will need to be very careful with during wars).

6) Egypt - Persia
- support Persia
7) Babylon - Dutch (? connects with Egypt - Persia)
- support Babylon

Thats 14 civs we have met - 17 to go!
Importantly we want to meet and help the other scientifics - Germany, Russia, (I forgot the Greeks and Sumerians - had to look them up), as well as meeting French who appear to have a turbocharger in Paris.
(btw I note Babylonians dont even have Alpha - perhaps we should gift them)

So, the first step - how to get Japan and Aztec's land
As discussed we need to support a war between the 2. I dont think it matters too much which side we take other than logistics may make Aztecs better (since our dromons can deposit swords on forest tile 1NW of capital in 2 moves).
Giving both techs to allow them to be building 2 wonders each (ie SoZ, MoM or GLH, or poss even GLib) means they will not be rebuilding any more units once they expend initial surplus in first 4-6 turns. We need a min of embassy with our ally / 2nd victim - if Japan, this would give valuable info on countryside around capital. In our current fiscal lack 2 embassies may be overkill - 45g for Japan, 33g for Aztec).
We will require an army which will take us over the unit support limit so the shortest possible time from assembling our army to capture of first town the better. Once all 4 captured we can support an extra 20 units if less than size 6 - which I assume they will quickly be starved to.
I would see us landing an attack force from dromons onto a tile adjacent their capital and taking it the following turn. 6 swords would probably do the job, but we cannot afford probables (a failed attempt results in long delay till we could reassemble another force) so I would argue 8 or even 10. Whilst the more swords we have (with 1 dromon for every 2 swords) increases costs, any not required in initial battle are immed avail to take 2nd city (Teotihican?), then ship to Japanese capital. This should hopefully make for a very short actual war.
If Aztecs dont get to build SoZ it may be an option to wait to dow Japan until they build SoZ for us.
Disbanding the 3 warriors so we have no mp guarding our capital means 15 units plus 4 curraghs would be paying 21gpt in costs. Perhaps leaving a warrior in the capital with enough gold to upgrade would be prudent in case a unit gets dropped off on our grass cow - hopefully by then there are not many free units)

Working backwards - to get the max force I described (10 swords and 5 dromons) would take 24 turns from now, landing 25 turns from now, therefore arrange alliance and dow 18 turns from now.
If we go with 8 swords and 4 dromons that would be 6 turns earlier, if risk 6 swords and 3 dromons then we could dow in 6 turns, land in 13.
Of course all this neglects the worker and market. Slaves would do instead of workers - delays further development significantly but able to maintain size 12 with scientists and dont add to unit upkeep costs.
Once strike force built could immed go to infrastructure builds if have gone for larger force, otherwise probably need to keep building replacements for taking subsequent cities.
It would be unwise to have too much gap between fighting Aztecs and fighting Japanese unless we know they are only building wonders, otherwise they will get back up to deity numbers of units.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

This game is different than normal civ games. The Lib is cheaper. Our only city is size 12 and thus has great benefit from the Lib. Our enemies have many units in just 2 cities and thus are harder to conquer. All those things together make the library more important than units.

A market has value only if we run max tax for a while. To keep that option open, we need 2 workers.

The 2 workers would give us flexibility to delay build choises until after the turnset. Your suggestion not to build any could be interesting if the lower number of swords would be enough. If they don't kill a lot of eachothers troops, i doubt if even 10 is enough though. If 10 swords are needed, it would take 30 turns before the slaves are working and probably 40+ before they can make us 20spt. That is way too long imo.
If we can capture slaves 13 turns from now though, that sounds like a great alternative.
Do you guys think 6 or 8 is enough after they fight eachother?

 

[Paul#42]

We need to find the balance between research and expansion.
A marketplace in near future would slow down expansion too much (especially if combined with poprushing).

Getting a library quickly pays a great ROI bacause with a tech lead we can better push the rivals in our direction.

I would feel more comfortable attacking with 8 swords. Are those towns we already know on flat land or on hills? Anybody comfortable with Offa's combat simulator? How many spears do we expect?

 

[WackenOpenAir]

We need to find the balance between research and expansion.
A marketplace in near future would slow down expansion too much (especially if combined with poprushing).

Getting a library quickly pays a great ROI bacause with a tech lead we can better push the rivals in our direction.

I would feel more comfortable attacking with 8 swords. Are those towns we already know on flat land or on hills? Anybody comfortable with Offa's combat simulator? How many spears do we expect?

The pop rushing thing does not slow down our expansion at all. It was in fact KC's solution to prevent the market from slowing down our conquest too much. The poprushing will build the market in 2 instead of 5 turns, but it comes at the cost of science.

Of course, if we think about not even building any workers at all, then the marketplace costs 5 turns even with pop rushing. Every worker costs a turn to produce and saves a turn on the build time. If we choose to build 2 workers and not pop rush them into the market, it would cost an additional 2 turns.

If we build 2 workers now, we could finish both lib and market in about 20 turns.
If we build 1 worker now, we could start building lib and market in about 20 turns.
If we bulid no workers, we could start building them in about 40 turns. (somewhat rough estimate)

So i think we can sum up these options:

A) 2 workers, build lib and market, pop rush with the 2 workers. - Costs 7 turns on conquest and pop rush unhappyness worth 60g.
B) 2 workers, build lib and market, no pop rush. - Costs 9 turns on conquest.
C) 1 worker, build only lib. - Costs 3 turns on conquest. - Costs 20 turns on market.
D) Build nothing but units. - Fastest conquest. - Costs 20 turns on lib and market.
E) 2 worker, build only market with pop rush. Costs 5 turns on conquest and 60g unhappy. - Costs 20 turns on lib.*

Options that can be ruled out immeadiately as they are obviously worse:
-1 worker, build lib and market - Costs 7 turns on conquest - Costs ~ 9 turns on lib and market. (clearly worse than A)

*We could then run 20 turns of tax, getting 1000g in stack. Possibly allowing us to trade the 3 early MA techs and get an extra tech for free. The extra tech however has about 66% chance of being relatively useless. Invention is relatively useless because the AI is virtually sure to research this and it has all the time to do so while we research the top part of the tech three. Chivalry is optional and thus relatively useless. Therefore, i don't think running tax is very usefull if we do it for the free MA tech. It may however be usefull to kill some time while the AI is researching construction for us. It is not likely that we will then be waiting 20 turns though, so the library will likely be more important than the market anyway and IMO, option E could also be ruled out. I also don't like B when i compare it to A.

 

[killercane]

Well we cant build a library for some turns, anywhere from 10-20 turns, so troops are it for now and the next turnset. We only need a mine on the iron and one on ivory for 20 spt. 2 workers can have that done in 9 turns. I am on the Conquest boat. Lit comes in then on Mark's turns and we can decide on Library then. I think we only want it if we research CoL or Poly. If we do we can trade for HBR.

I propose:

Build 2 workers, mine iron and ivory.
Then 4 swords or dromons.

The Q is do we trade Currency for Maps and Poly/CoL adn then get gpt back from India? I am intrigued by the Great Lighthouse idea. We could also improve attack time by 4 turns by forgoing two dromons, land 6 and then land 4 the next turn. If Aztecs (or Japan too) are at war all their troops will be away from us.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

"The Q is do we trade Currency for Maps and Poly/CoL adn then get gpt back from India? ."
That is such a tough question, i think we should wait and see what to do when the first tech is out here as i posted on the former page..

Edit: I guess im slow to understand KC adds a new option. I just wanted to change one small thing and make it only 1 worker because buliding our attack force will surely take 18 turns, so 1 worker should be enough.

Build 1 worker to do the mining in 18 turns.
Build the smallest attack force that we think can conquer a city and attack with only turn lost to the worker. Possibly with sailing twice.
Then Build the Library in 2 turns and continue adding units to the attack.

 

[Paul#42]

The Q is do we trade Currency for Maps and Poly/CoL adn then get gpt back from India?

How much gpt is India willing to give back (eg for currency)?
My recent experience is you will get half of the gpt you just paid to an AI.
Don't know how this changes if you wait some turns between both trades...

Right now, I'd favor option C.

Getting some money however would also be nice to get some AI to demand it from us - but currency should also attract them...
I agree on raising tax if we have to wait for cons after we got lit. In that case rushing a market might be an option again.
But I doubt this will be necessary. I trust our partners

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I think we might get close to an agreement here.

KC's plan i just reposted with only 1 worker is pretty darn similar to option C, the only difference is. KC suggests we can attack with a small force before we build the library. I also agree we should seek it in this direction.

Right now, they are willing to pay us 13gpt and HBR for currency. I think this will change when they get too many units or when they give part of it to another AI when it gets Poly, MM or CoL and trades with India before we get to do anything about it.

 

[Paul#42]

Will eight swords be enough? If we take two turns for the landing, we might just need two dromons...

(I try to pull the attack into my turnset)

What resistance are we likely to face? archers, spears and Jags. Most archers and Jags should be heading towards Japan 5 turns after dow.
The first strike on our forces should not exceed two attack-2-units. Four swords on good terrain should stand that.

It would be good to see how the land north of Tenochtitlan looks like...

 

[killercane]

The WORST I would expect is 4 vet spears and maybe an archer (if their troops are way down south) in a city on a hill. Our chances are 24% if we bring 8 swords. If it is a town on flatland, with 3-4 regular spears, we are 99% sure of taking the town with 8 swords. We cant investigate if we are at war. Maybe we spare the gold to investigate the layout of Aztecs capital?

 

[Paul#42]

Maybe our first dromon drops any unit there before we dow?
I wonder where it ends up if it gets booted...
Maybe we should use a reg warrior for that mission?

edit: No problem, it should stay on that island in the swamps NW of Tenochtitlan. We should not have a unit there while we dow, that might distract some forces from our Japanese friends...

The Aztecs might enter their Golden Age before we attack - we migth face a stream of units coming from their capital.
I really want to know what it looks like there.

 

[Andronicus]

The Aztecs surely would be in GA by time we land (6-8 turns after dow / alliance), thats one of the reasons I suggest getting both their cities into wonder building mode before we dow.
With luck, in their GA, they might even build us a useful wonder or 2 (GLH or SoZ).
More importantly they would not be able to build more units and hence would have the min (? 3-4 spears) defending capital and would be unable to pop rush further defenders when we land.

edit - I realise I contradict myself here - if they build a wonder then they will be able to pop rush. Better to attack before the wonder is built.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

The Aztecs surely would be in GA, thats one of the reasons I suggest getting both their cities into wonder building mode before we dow.
With luck in their GA, they might even build us a useful wonder or 2 (GLH or SoZ).
More importantly they would not be able to build more units and hence would have the min (? 3-4 spears) defending capital and would be unable to pop rush further defenders when we land.

sounds very good, but for their golden age, they need to be at war. When they are at war, do you think they are gonna start a wonder?

 

[Andronicus]

The WORST I would expect is 4 vet spears and maybe an archer (if their troops are way down south) in a city on a hill. Our chances are 24% if we bring 8 swords. If it is a town on flatland, with 3-4 regular spears, we are 99% sure of taking the town with 8 swords. We cant investigate if we are at war. Maybe we spare the gold to investigate the layout of Aztecs capital?

Whilst this would give us info on the layout of land it wont give us much idea what units will still be there after 6-8 turns of war.
However 33g for embassy may be worthwhile to estimate how long they will remain on wonder build mode and where best landing spot is (if there is a hill to the south it may be too far as it would delay dromon landing by perhaps 3 turns - 3 extra turns of paying high unit upkeep costs, OTOH it may allow dromon bombardment).

 

[Andronicus]

sounds very good, but for their golden age, they need to be at war. When they are at war, do you think they are gonna start a wonder?

My idea is give / trade the techs for wonder builds then dow several turns after they commence wonder build(s). The AI will hopefully think it has so many units it wont think to waste shields and switch to units.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Oh, of course, we also start the war after they have started wonders.
I indeed don't think they will swich buids when they started making a wonder. I have fought 1 town empires in the past, and they don't end their wonder build.

I wouldn't like to give up our semi monopoly now though, So i think we should wait until a new tech is out for trade.

I assume it is the idea to let them have their GA and build the wonder while we first fight Japan and hope they finish the wonder right when we're done with Japan ?

 

[killercane]

Maybe our first dromon drops any unit there before we dow?
I wonder where it ends up if it gets booted...
Maybe we should use a reg warrior for that mission?

edit: No problem, it should stay on that island in the swamps NW of Tenochtitlan. We should not have a unit there while we dow, that might distract some forces from our Japanese friends...

The Aztecs might enter their Golden Age before we attack - we migth face a stream of units coming from their capital.
I really want to know what it looks like there.

If the dromon drops it off surely they will just ask us to leave first, then boot him next turn. So we can load him back up on a ship after his looksee of the capital. Sounds like a good idea to me.

 

[Andronicus]

Oh, of course, we also start the war after they have started wonders.
I indeed don't think they will swich buids when they started making a wonder. I have fought 1 town empires in the past, and they don't end their wonder build.

I wouldn't like to give up our semi monopoly now though, So i think we should wait until a new tech is out for trade.

I assume it is the idea to let them have their GA and build the wonder while we first fight Japan and hope they finish the wonder right when we're done with Japan ?

My thinking was
1) Trade gift maths +/- philo to Aztecs and Japan - wait till they start wonder builds
2) Embassy with Japan
3) dow Aztecs
4) ally Japan v Aztecs with tech (by this stage perhaps MM)
5) after 6-8 turns of war land adjacent Aztec capital with ? 8 swords
6) take Aztec capital next turn, then if sufficient healthy units immed move on their second city (reinforcing with new units)
7) once 2nd city taken unit support costs no longer a problem -> decide on timing for taking Japanese cities (ie is it worth delaying till useful wonder built?, but attack before they get chance to build up units again)

 

[killercane]

Turn 8 2630BC
Warrior3 -> Curragh3
Aztecs and Indians know writing but want too much for it. We’ll see if the price comes down as more civs learn it. We’re only 8 turns away by self-research.
First worker merge. Hire three scientists and the lux slider goes to zero.

Note that the Aztecs may be close to Mapmaking. They got writing along with India 13 turns ago. Teotihuacan had 2 citizens at 2550, assume the capital had 3 or 4. So they had 10-12 science or so at that point, and now Teo is size 3 and the capital is probably larger. They only pay 288 for Mapmaking at 60% deity cost, so they surely will get MM sometime in the next 10 turns.

 

[Andronicus]

Note that the Aztecs may be close to Mapmaking. They got writing along with India 13 turns ago.

Good point - they might build GLH for us

edit - they lack maths and phil, so if they discover MM first we should be in good position to trade without giving up currency

edit 2 - should we gift alpha to Babs and writing to Korea to promote good relations with scientificAIs and assist them to get researching?