SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

mdy, could I see your ~300-400BC save for your Philo plan?

 

[mdy]

That save was for an Oracle-machinery game which I no longer support. I will try to find the time tomorrow to play a game out that far which involves Oracling philosophy.


LC what is the point at which your MM for an early Oracle-metal casting diverges from a game emphasising research. We could play up to that point before deciding what tech to try for from the Oracle. An extra few turns of info might make a difference.

 

[LowtherCastle]

From the beginning, it I'm not mistaken, because I'm reseaching mysticism-masnry-meditation-PH-wtg. Except that I keep the slider at 0% until T75.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

From the beginning, it I'm not mistaken, because I'm reseaching mysticism-masnry-meditation-PH-wtg. Except that I keep the slider at 0% until T75.

Having tried to play out this tech path while trying to Oracle Philosophy, I wound tend to agree that we'd want to get Writing first... Code of Laws just takes too long to research without Libraries to help us out and even a tiny bit of extra Commerce from Foreign Trade Routes would be welcome.


One thought is: how much would a middle-of-the-road approach cost/hurt us?


For example, could we follow LC's Oracle Metal Casting approach, still whipping the Forge, but then completing Paris' Library before Settler 5?

Could we also delay Animal Husbandry (still get Hunting) and then go for Code of Laws after Writing -> Hunting -> Code of Laws, to try for the Religion?

We would then settle Fur City ahead of M.Fish + Pig.


If we find that we're ready to settle the M.Fish + Pig location as our 6th City before Code of Laws is complete, we could instead settle the eastern 2-Clam location, saving M.Fish + Pig for our 7th City location, which means, honestly, that the M.Fish + Pig City probably won't come out in time to hire any/many Specialists during our Caste System run.


Then, if we aren't first to Confucianism, we can temporarily abandon research on Code of Laws, assuming that we felt that doing so migiht help, and even consider getting Alphabet instead of Animal Husbandry... Alphabet = free Animal Husbandry since the AIs do not consider Animal Husbandry to be a monopoly tech, so even if we have only met Vicky, she will trade it to us (she should certainly know it herself by that late date).


After Alphabet, we'd commit to racing towards Philosophy, since we'd missed out on Confucianism, and thus would complete Code of Laws next and would start manual Research on Math with the hopes that we might be able to get all of it or at least part of it in trade before finishing research on it.


However, our Great Scientist won't quite be ready... so, could we also consider sacrificing some optimal growth in Gold City in order to just focus on pumping out that Great Scientist? If we manage to found Confucianism, then we can temporarily fire the 2 Scientists and can go back to growing the City, so that, closer to LC's PPP, we'll be able to grow AND work both Scientists simultaneously, while still getting the Great Scientist at the same time that we will complete The Pyramids.

i.e. We would focus on getting an early Great Scientist at the cost of some early growth in Gold as a means to ensure that we get a Religion, but as soon as we find that we managed to get Confucianism, we'll go back to growing Gold City as much as possible such that we'll still complete the Great Scientist at the same time as building The Pyramids.


In other words, rather than trying to plan for the ideal circumstances, can we build in some redundancy into the plan, as well as some compromises (slower-growing Gold City, delaying or even skipping for a long time the M.Fish + Pig City location)?

Note that we never know when our plans might need to shift anyway, due to having whip an anti-Barb defender, for example.


So, we've seen a close-to-deal situation of what the PPP approach can pull off and I think that with some built-in compromises it can still be a very solid plan.



I mean, I do like the fact that Oracling Philosophy allows us to skip some techs for Lightbulbing and gives us great flexibility with Religions (and even early Temples for Happiness, should we choose to want them). That said, I also like the synergy of an early-whipped Forge from Oracling Metal Casting (Oracling Metal Casting looks less appealing to me if we delay building Forges for a long period of time).



As for settling 2-Clams instead of M.Fish + Pig, we DID say that we wanted to try and settle in Vicky's direction (and we know she came from that direction thanks to our hard-earned exploration of many dead-ends). It's still a decent City with 3 decent squares (2 Clams plus a PH Mine) that isn't QUITE as efficient as M.Fish + Pig + Des H (2 less Food but 1 more Hammer) but still makes for a reasonable Great Person Farm as well as a potentially-nice launching point to attack Vicky, depending upon how close she is to us.


Self-teching a late Animal Husbandry feels painful when it's not that far off in trade. I don't see how Horse Resources appearing would change our Fur City or M.Fish + Pig City locations, and if we're really paranoid, we can settle on a Desert square instead of a Plains square with the 2 Clams location. So, none of our early potential City locations would be affected by learning Animal Husbandry (and if it turns out that there is a Horse that our 2-Clam City misses, such as near the Silk, then we will at least have left room for a 2nd City up there). If our Fur City is settled ON a Horse, I don't think that we'd change its location... and we'd at least get +1 Hammer from the Horse Resource since it's a Plains square.


I'm also attaching a zipped Excel version of LC's PPP from message #859. Hopefully, the file doesn't lose too much or any info in the conversion process... I see the worksheet with just a white background and black text, evenly-spaced columns, and one yellow-background field that highlights the turn upon which the Great Scientist was born. LC will have to let us know if the file conversion process lost us any further details.

 

[mdy]

I've attached some saves from an Oracle-philosophy run.

In retrospect I made several sub optimal move during this game, most noticeably delaying stone city too long and not managing the whip overflow as efficiently as I should have so I'm sure this can be improved on.

In terms of time to research all important technologies I think this strategy would be roughly eqivalent to LC's(though astro would be noticeably later) if we went to priesthood via polytheism, ASSUMING that we don't get lucky with tech tradng with the AI's. If we can trade for 1-2 techs with them the Oracle-philosophy strategy would be noticeably quicker.

I'm wondering whether some kind of hybrid strategy might work: Oracle metal casting and build the pyramids a la LC, but then research writing-COL, generate at least 1 early GS to bulb philosophy for pacifism, whilst building GP points for a second prior to our switch to CS.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I'm wondering whether some kind of hybrid strategy might work: Oracle metal casting and build the pyramids a la LC, but then research writing-COL, generate at least 1 early GS to bulb philosophy for pacifism, whilst building GP points for a second prior to our switch to CS.

Well, if we plan to switch to Pacifism and a State Religion in order to generate this second Great Person, then we're only really looking at saving 1 turn of Anarchy when switching into Representation + Caste System (and/or just Caste System because we switched into Representation at the same time as Pacifism).

I would tend to think that Lightbulbing with such a Great Person would be better than running a Golden Age, as I rambled on about in message #841, so I don't think that we need to explicitly try for a Golden Age. The time delay to get a 2nd Great Person without Pacifism is such that you're almost doing a 2-Great-Person approach by the time that the 2nd Great Person comes out.

The Golden Age for Civic-switching idea works best where we manage to Oracle Philosophy, because it doesn't take too long to get our first Great Person and we can afford to generate 1 Great Person without the use of Pacifism, such that we'd then save on 1 turn of Anarchy for our swap into a State Religion and 1 turn of Anarchy for our swap into an early Pacifism, with the potential to dip in and out of Caste System during this Golden Age.


So, overall, I think that we will be better off not running a Golden Age unless it is from our first Great Person (which won't work if we need to Lightbulb Philosophy with our Great Person), and then only using a Golden Age as an "okay but not great" method of using an undesired Great Person, say, should we choose to take the risk of accidentally spawning a Great Prophet or should we built a Courthouse and have the City Governor accidentally give us a Great Spy or something.


Other than planning for a Golden Age, though, I think that what you suggested will work very well. The Golden Age is probably going to be inferior to Lightbulbing UNLESS the Golden Age is from our first Great Person (which only works with Oracling Philosophy), and even then we have to weigh the tradeoff that we might be launching the Golden Age "too early," in that we won't have that many Cities set up with sufficient population to hire a lot of Specialsits during the Golden Age time period.


Another consideration with going for and getting The Pyramids is that it's a Wonder that keeps on giving... we are unlikely to make it to Constitution, Democracy, and Fascism, so we will get flexibility with Civic choices that we won't otherwise see anytime during the rest of the game. Unlike looking at the timing of the Great People for Ligihtbulbing, when we look at The Pyramids, we also need to consider that we might want to switch into Police State in the future for better Military Unit production and for anti-war weariness. It's hard to quantify the value, but it seems that we can still REX a decent amount with LC's approach, to the point that if we were to REX too much more (by skipping The Pyramids and getting a couple of more Settlers), we would be running the risk of over-expanding too early on.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Comparing the two empires. This includes pushing the Philo test forward 4t to equalize for the 4t of revolt the MC/Mids route will pay for CS+Pac+Rep+Religion (not that we would actually push the Philo forward):

         Philo  MC/Pyramids
         -----  -----------
beakers            +814
GSes      +1
Hammers            +540
(forges)             +1
Cities               +1
Used TRs  yes        no
bpt                 +75
GP farms             +1
Happies              +3 (5 cities)
Religion             +1  

1 GS @2400b/65bpt = 37t

1. Interestingly, the MC/Mids is ahead in actual beakers produced by ~814b, roughly +5bpt, even though it built the Paris library much later and my save didn't use trade routes. Evidently, that's the power of REX (+ an early forge = fewer turns building settlers = faster regrowth = more turns spent working coastal tiles.)
2. The MC/Route is ahead 540h, not surprisingly.
3. The MC/Route is +1 city and +1 forge ahead in terms of expansion. (Actually 2 forges, but I'm assuming Gold City would build a monastery and 2 missionaries instead of the forge.)
4. The Philo route is ahead a GS which the MC/Mids route bulbs into Philo.
5. The MC/Mids route recoups the +1 GS beakers in 37t.
6. The Philo route is +1 religion spread, but MC/Mids GOld City would exchange the forge for monastery+2missionaries to end up +1 religion spread.
7. The MC/Mids route has +3 in 5 cities.

If we can trade for 1-2 techs with them the Oracle-philosophy strategy would be noticeably quicker.

I don't understand how you're drawing this conclusion. My understanding is the opposite:

Spoiler :

Assuming we get Alpha+Math+IW in trade:

            Philo   MC/Mid
            110bpt  175bpt
            ------  ------
revolt                4
Mach(1635)   10       0 
Comp (936)    8.5     5.5 
Calen(819)    7.5     4.5
Optc(1404)    0       8   (if not bulbed)
             -----   ----
Total        26t     22t
Delta                +4t

-----------------------------------------

Assuming only ALpha in trade:

            Philo   MC/Mid
            110bpt  175bpt
            ------  ------
revolt                4
Math (585)    5.5     0
Mach(1635)   10       3.5 (1030b already in it) 
Comp (936)    8.5     5.5 
Calen(819)    7.5     4.5
Optc(1404)    0       8   (if not bulbed)
             -----   ----
Total        31.5t   25.5t
Delta                +6t

-----------------------------------------

Assuming no trades:

            Philo   MC/Mid
            110bpt  175bpt
            ------  ------
revolt                4
Alpha(703)    6.5     0         
Math (585)    5.5     0
Mach(1635)   10       7.5 (330b already in it) 
Comp (936)    8.5     5.5 
Calen(819)    7.5     4.5
Optc(1404)    0       8   (if not bulbed)
             -----   ----
Total        38t     29.5t
Delta                +8.5t

I threw in MC/Mids researching Optics as a bonus for the Philo path, but we probably wouldn't do that. Anyway, it would recoup the +1 GS.

As for math+iw+alpha, our exploration should tell us what we might get in trade before the MC/Mids path finishes CoL, so we'll know whether to research them or machinery or something else. Vicky should trade alpha, if she researches it. We'll see what she's researching by then.

Bottom line, I don't see any strong advantage for the Philo slingshot and it's risky as all get out on Emporer + one AI starting with GLH (even though he didn't get a religion) + one religion founder having its 2nd city already + possibly one industrious AI. Furthermore, getting Taoism and COnfucianism at almost the same time risks getting mixed spread, thus forcing us to build monastery+missionary.

I'm wondering whether some kind of hybrid strategy might work: Oracle metal casting and build the pyramids a la LC, but then research writing-COL, generate at least 1 early GS to bulb philosophy for pacifism, whilst building GP points for a second prior to our switch to CS.

You're getting wtg+ph 2t after I get ph, so that shouldn't delay the Oracle more than 2t or so, I think. We're also settling City4 on the same turn, so that handles Stone City. The main difference is you're poprushing the library, whereas I'm building the second worker together with City4, to immediately quarry the stone, and then poprushing the Paris forge. So the question is, how much would wtg-ph slow down the quarry and the forge, thus the Pyramids. Additional delays would be settling Pigs and Furs.

Trying to spam a GS in Paris would slow all of that down even more. Basically, the key factors I used to REX and get the Pyramids so fast was exchanging a forge for the early lib AND building a GS in Paris.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Note of further explanation:

Obviously, the Philo route should also be credited with the 1872b for Philo. I didn't include that in the above calculations because I'm assuming that I would have bulbed that in the MC/Mids test, if I had researched ALpha instead of setting the slider to 0%.

Then, obviously, that leaves the Philo with +2 GSes, in the actual save. Well, to me that's only really +1GS because the MC/Mids route has +1 GP Farms so it will catch up on GPs eventually, since their cost continually rises, and because the early second GS doesn't give an advantage if we're not planning to run a GA.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Assuming we get Alpha+Math+IW in trade:

I'm not really certain where the numbers in this table came from... are we talking Research rate at a 100% Science Slider or are you just going by the dates that techs were researched in your test run vs mdy's test run?

What does the "0" value for Machinery and Math at the start of each table, respectively, represent? The fact that by the date that you started comparing the test runs, both of those techs had already been manually-researched in the MC/Mid test run? I'm thinking that that's the answer, but at first I thought you were indicating that you were Lightbulbing techs or something.

7. The MC/Mids route has +3 in 5 cities.

That's before Whipping Unhappiness is factored in, right? Still, I guess even if you were to have whipped 2 more times on average than mdy did, having +3 Happiness still comes out ahead Happiness-wise, after that period of Anarchy.

Vicky should trade alpha, if she researches it.

Is Alphabet a non-Monopoly tech, similar to techs like Animal Husbandry and Monarchy? Is this some special behaviour limited to some AIs like Vicky? I suppose that I end up researching Alphabet in most of my games and when I do get it in trade, usually a few AIs already have Alphabet, so I'm not really sure how this situation of getting Alpha in trade occurs.

You're getting wtg+ph 2t after I get ph

Is this situation because of going for 1 or 2 early Libraries? i.e. We wouldn't want Writing first if we aren't going to be building the Libraries, say, in the MC/Mids test run, since we'd then just be putting The Oracle's date at greater risk, right?

i.e. Without building Libraries, we're going to say that +1 Commerce per Trade Route (the best that Writing could offer besides an early +1 Diplo modifier with Vicky, and we might only get this +1 Commerce in a single City if Vicky stays small, but assuming all Cities get it) is still probably roughly the same as our bonus to research on Writing by getting Priesthood, or at least close enough?

Then I guess you have to consider the fact that we seem to be whipping a Forge as soon as possible after Oracling Metal Casting, so ANY delay on building The Oracle just cuts into our production. So, even if Research is a tiny bit behind by putting Writing after Priesthood + Masonry, as per the MC/Midstest run, then we'd lose out far more by trying to sneak Writing back in before these techs, right?


If it sounds like I'm asking questions with relatively obvious answers, then you can blame Erkon's influence from me having read over some Murky Waters' old messages--someone's got to ask the silly questions (the questions with nearly obvious answers) so that everyone is fully on board with what's being discussed and so that the rest of you can look a whole lot smarter!


Also, LC, what are your thoughts on alternting your MC/Mids run? Specifically my thoughts on skipping manual research on Animal Husbandry for a faster Code of Laws (and a better chance at an earlier Religion), in exchange for delaying Magical Fish + Pig (perhaps settling the eastern 2-Clam location instead?) as well as trying more aggressively to get our first Great Scientist in Gold City (working the Clams less or not at all for some time in there) until we see that we got or missed Confucianism, so that we'll hopefully be the first to Philosophy if we need Taoism?

I think that we can all agree that not founding a Religion would, at best, allow 1 AI-founded Religion to spread to one of our Cities, meaning that we'd definitely need a Monastery and a ton of Missionaries before Pacifism could be put to use, meaning a definite delay in all Great People after the first one. Unlike with a Religion founded close to our Cities (i.e. in one of our Cities), a Foreign Religion couldn't be counted on to auto-spread.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@Dhoom
1. I take into account prior research, as relevant.
2. I believe Alpha is a tech AIs freely trade.
3. AH takes ~4t iirc when we research it. That's not a decision we need to make now. Pigs will require ~32t to build its granary+lh. Not something we want to delay beyond a certain point if so we can use it as a GP Farm, but who knows when we actually start farming GPs.
4. In the second test I posted, I very aggressively spam the Gold GS. I doubt we can save more turns, because we can only run 2 sci per turn. I doubt there's much risk of losing out on Taoism, but who knows.

 

[shyuhe]

How are people feeling about MC vs. philo at this point? I don't have enough time to do testing for this so I have no strong opinion in either direction.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

How are people feeling about MC vs. philo at this point? I don't have enough time to do testing for this so I have no strong opinion in either direction.

I think that we're basically at a point where we're allowing mdy to either:
1. continue making his case for a Philosophy Oracle approach. If he does so, it may result in any one of us doing more test runs based upon what he has to say or where he'd like us to try to further improve upon his plan
OR
2. accept LC's MC/Mids approach
OR
3. keep pushing for compromises to LC's MC/Mids approach

I am happy waiting until he makes his case.


Once we are decided, then I'd like a bit of time to run through the chosen path, to see if there are any optimizations that I can find for the first 20 or so turns of play.

After that amount of time, game conditions can change enough for such optimizations to not really matter. For example, if we were to map a path to Vicky and she were to research Writing (for Open Borders), then all Research-based optimization calculations would be thrown off, so there's not much point in trying to optimize too far into the future.

If anything, such optimizations would be relatively minor, like changing a Science Slider to a different value on a different turn or altering a Worker action or a citizen's assigned square minorly in order to try for some kind of a savings. LC's got a relatively-optimized-looking game anyway, so there's probably not too much that I could contribute, but I wouldn't mind trying.

I don't want to try optimization until we are agreed on a plan, though... for example, I had started to optimize Science Slider rates for a Writing-first approach, but LC's current plan doesn't even have us researching Writing first anymore, so those numbers may just be thrown away.

 

[Mitchum]

How are people feeling about MC vs. philo at this point? I don't have enough time to do testing for this so I have no strong opinion in either direction.

I'm in the same boat as shyuhe. I'm back from my trips but I don't have a lot of time to test at the moment (I'm hoping my schedule opens up a bit in the near future).

Based on the arguments presented so far, I'm leaning toward LC's MC/Pyramids approach. LC has a way of presenting compelling arguments.

So, like Dhoomstriker, I'd like to hear mdy's rebuttal to LC's comparison of the two approaches. It sounds like Dhoom, mdy and LC have already looked at and tested this from all angles, but mdy may be able to shed some new light on his proposed plan.

@LC Is the PPP file you posted (post #859) still your current plan? If so, can you summarize the high-level plan (i.e. tech path, settling order, builds) in a post. The spreadsheet has all of the detailed info but it's hard to pull out the salient points. City MM, whipping cycles, worker actions, etc. can be left in the spreadsheet.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I am happy waiting until mdy makes his case.

Same here. I'm thoroughly burnt out on testing, but I'd be delighted if mdy can reaise it to a new level.

Based on the arguments presented so far, I'm leaning toward LC's MC/Pyramids approach. LC has a way of presenting compelling arguments.

@LC Is the PPP file you posted (post #859) still your current plan? If so, can you summarize the high-level plan (i.e. tech path, settling order, builds) in a post. The spreadsheet has all of the detailed info but it's hard to pull out the salient points. City MM, whipping cycles, worker actions, etc. can be left in the spreadsheet.

I'm not wedded to either approach. Just trying to be as real as I can. Even if they're equal, I'd rather take the safer Oracle, though, that's for sure. But I've also got enough golds in my back pocket that I'm game for a gamble too. The thing is, I'm not convinced Philo is better, even as a gamble, because the REX is weaker and no Mids. Of course, MC/Mids is also a gamble in that the timing of trading Alpha from AIs might be better with Philo than with Mids.

Post 859 is my current edition. Here's the basic idea:

1. Primary focus on REX = settle all six cities and create 4 GP Farms asap.
2. Beeline Oracle/MC+Pyramids.
3. Pop Philo GS in Gold, freeing Paris to REX and build the Pyramids.
4. Oracle worker optimization:
4a. Chop into the GOld granary because it needs granary-lh-library asap to pop a GS asap.
4b. Beeline PH so that worker chop goes straight into Oracle (no waiting).
5. Writing next so lh whip OF goes into Gold Library for quick 2pop.
6. Settle Stone next with OF building 2nd wkr next turn to connect stone in time for Paris forge whip OF into Pyramids.
7. Whip forge in Paris asap.
8. Htg-AH next to get Pigs settled in time for Oracle wkr and as a GP Farm later.

 

[Emperor Peter]

I'm sorry, I haven't been posting but I'm really ill and not able to contribute atm.
I will tune in again when things get better.

 

[shyuhe]

Ok, I just wanted to make sure the game doesn't stall out on endless testing since I can't contribute any myself Since the next set will take us through the oracle, I think we're still on a good pace with the game.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I suppose there's one untested possibility for Philo+Pyramids, that I don't intend to try. Something like what mdy does, except settle Stone before Marble. Then, the worker first chops the forest into the GOld granary (Gold could just follow my PPP), then moves down to quarry the stone.

Paris would have to produce a second worker with the Marble settler, I suppose.

I have no idea if this is feasible. Not having the forge in Paris would probably slow down the Pyramids quite a bit.

 

[babybluepants]

Haven't been able to keep up with the discussion or test. I'm still in favour of Oracle MC in Marble, as before. LC's PPP looks great to that point - haven't tested further.

 

[mdy]

The reason the rex looks weaker in the philo save is because of some mistakes I made which I didn't realise until too late and I did not have time to go back and play again yesterday. This is a result of a couple of poor decisions I made and not something intrinsic to the Oracle metal casting plan.

I don't understand how you're drawing this conclusion. My understanding is the opposite:

Possibly because I was including engineering in the list of major techs we want for trebs. That's another 2340 beakers that the philosophy path can bulb which the MC route would have to research by hand.

The MC/Route is ahead 540h, not surprisingly.

Does this include the bonus hammers we get for building the pyramids with stone?

1. Interestingly, the MC/Mids is ahead in actual beakers produced by ~814b, roughly +5bpt, even though it built the Paris library much later and my save didn't use trade routes. Evidently, that's the power of REX (+ an early forge = fewer turns building settlers = faster regrowth = more turns spent working coastal tiles.)

Maybe because I made absolutely 0 trades by this point in the game. Maths and ironworking I could easily trade for before we need them, so these should not be counted against the philo route. I also self teched animal husbandry and hunting which might also make a difference. Even then the only way I can see that you can conclude that MC is ahead of philo by around 800 beakers is if you neglect philosophy the beakers gained by Oracling philosophy but include those gained by Oracling metal casting which isn't really a fair comparison.

I will also point out that whilst the risk of losing the Oracle is obviuolsy significantly lower with a MC shot, LC's save does have an additional risk which the philo shot doesn't: Losing the pyramids. Whilst the chance of this are not that high I have seen the mids go earlier before. Had we lost the Oracle and failed to Oracle philosophy it would have taken us approximately 8 turns to research all the major techs. How much would this have set us back in LC's plan?

On balance I think both my save and LC's save are roughly equal, and that given the uncertainties involved it is probably impossible to say for sure which would be better.

However I do think that a hybrid strategy involving the building the pyramids, but setting things up in such a way that we could more easily generate GP's would be significantly stronger than either.

I think this can be done with only 1 early GS from gold, leaving the capital free to build the Pyramids, provided we research writing-COL directly after MC, and we succede in founding Confunicism. LC's save then indicates we would be in a position to generate 3-4GP's relatively quickly.

2GS in pigs/gold for astronomy, a GS/GE in Paris for engineering, and a GP/GS in the Oracle city for optics/golden age.

 

[LowtherCastle]

The reason the rex looks weaker in the philo save is because of some mistakes I made which I didn't realise until too late and I did not have time to go back and play again yesterday. This is a result of a couple of poor decisions I made and not something intrinsic to the Oracle metal casting plan.

Okay. I think there must also be somewhat of an intrinsic difference though, because the MC/Mids is free to focus on REX rather than beakers, starting with Priesthood. Then of course, there's also the early forge, which helps REXing cities 5 and 6.

Possibly because I was including engineering in the list of major techs we want for trebs. That's another 2340 beakers that the philosophy path can bulb which the MC route would have to research by hand.

The MC/Mids can bulb it too.

Does this include the bonus hammers we get for building the pyramids with stone?

No, but it does include the forge bonus.

Maybe because I made absolutely 0 trades by this point in the game. Maths and ironworking I could easily trade for before we need them, so these should not be counted against the philo route. I also self teched animal husbandry and hunting which might also make a difference. Even then the only way I can see that you can conclude that MC is ahead of philo by around 800 beakers is if you neglect philosophy the beakers gained by Oracling philosophy but include those gained by Oracling metal casting which isn't really a fair comparison.

I made no trades either. Also, I actually run 0% research for three extended periods: 1) right now (short period), 2) after writing, but before the Gold library, and 3) before the Paris library. So this also helps a lot. MC/Mids can do this, because there's never any research pressure.

MC/Mids bulbs Philo. My comparison works (whether you want to call it fair or not ), because it just follows what happens. Those 800b are real. They happen in the MC/Mids route, but not in the Philo route. So at 410BC, the Philo route has 2 GSes (waiting, not usable yet) in hand, whereas MC/Mids has none, but has bulbed Philo. Then, because we're about to run CS+Pacifism, the MC/Mids will start producing GPs in 4 GP Farms. So the question is, will it produce them fast enough? I assume so, based on the calcs some of us were doing earlier, but I haven't done any calcs myself. But meanwhile, MC/Mids is also producing 65bpt (including the 20% bonus, btw) more. That's the calcs I showed. The Philo path still has a lot of research to do just to be able to bulb Optics.

I will also point out that whilst the risk of losing the Oracle is obviuolsy significantly lower with a MC shot, LC's save does have an additional risk which the philo shot doesn't: Losing the pyramids. Whilst the chance of this are not that high I have seen the mids go earlier before. Had we lost the Oracle and failed to Oracle philosophy it would have taken us approximately 8 turns to research all the major techs. How much would this have set us back in LC's plan?

While you're completely right, somehow, that just doesn't concern me at all. The Oracle does. All it takes is a chop or two and Izzy's got it. The Pyramids aren't so vulnerable to a random chop or three. We're attacking it all out with a forge and stone.

On balance I think both my save and LC's save are roughly equal, and that given the uncertainties involved it is probably impossible to say for sure which would be better.

That's why I prefer an earlier Oracle, just to play it safe. In my tests, sometimes Izzy builds Stonehenge, sometimes, Oracle. Obviously, there's a random factor in there. Whenever she builds the Oracle, I have to retrace my steps back to 1500BC and nuke her city, because she finishes it in the 1400s. It's a testing PITA.

However I do think that a hybrid strategy involving the building the pyramids, but setting things up in such a way that we could more easily generate GP's would be significantly stronger than either.

I think this can be done with only 1 early GS from gold, leaving the capital free to build the Pyramids, provided we research writing-COL directly after MC, and we succede in founding Confunicism. LC's save then indicates we would be in a position to generate 3-4GP's relatively quickly.

2GS in pigs/gold for astronomy, a GS/GE in Paris for engineering, and a GP/GS in the Oracle city for optics/golden age.

In my PPP, on T103 we finish writing and I go to 0% research (on hunting). I could play to that point, I suppose.