SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

By the way, what are our post-Great-Person-Generation thoughts on City builds?

Are we going to put Forges in most Cities? What about Barracks?

If yes to either or both, are we going to consider switching into Organized Religion for a little while?


I ask because a potential Golden Age might be of use in terms of reducing the number of turns of Anarchy:
Representation -> Police State
Caste System -> Slavery
Pacifism -> Organized Religion
Maybe, if the timing works out (but don't count on it): Barbarism -> Bureaucracy (or Vassalage if the world has Feudalism by that point, ugh)
 
Alright, well here is what I plan to do:

- Revolt into Organized Religion
- Set Gold City to building a Confucian Missionary. Out of our two Confucian Cities, this City is the only one that can get sufficient base Hammers placed into a Missionary in order to make it a 1-pop-whip in time for a minimum-5-turn Civic period
- Mine and Road the Iron ASAP using both Workers
- The Trireme will stay near Pig City's Fish in its relatively centralized location. If it can respond to Barb Galleys, then it can respond to Ragnar's Galleys
- Our Galley should aim to pick up the existing Confucian Missionary and probably send him to Stone City's area, so that it can be used in Pig City. That way, we'll have the shortest distance to travel for our second Missionary (from Gold City to Paris)
- Our Work Boat Explorer will work its way to being stationed between our area and any of Ragnar's Cities
- Once we pick up Math, we'll probably gift it around to everyone that isn't someone else's Worst Enemy but then will have to decide what to do about others
- The tentative plan (but I'll wait for feedback) is to NOT take Hunting (and thus not Archery) when we give away Math, since we still are building Warriors and we also want to connect our Iron
- Since we are intetionally being "fair" to other teams by not trying to hide what we're going to do on the Submission Page's Graphs, I will aim to complete The Pyramids (although we'll pause before then since we'll learn Math before then), instead of stopping play 1 turn before completing this Wonder
- We will aim to NOT switch Civics after completing The Pyramids, so that we'll still have the flexibility to pick different Civics, to wait a couple of turns before switching, or whatever other plan we come up with... we know that we'll want Representation, Caste System, and Pacifism, by why make the switch at the end of a turnset when we leave more flexibility for the next player by allowing that Civic switch to be one of their first actions?!
 
Well, over on the Strategy & Tips forum, I found someone on the team who recently claimed that they were in support of the idea of building Barracks Buildings before building Military Units:
The rax also helps with your whipping micromanagement (pre built rax makes for a nice 2 pop whip)
 
Okay, we Revolted into Organized Religion and I set the build queue in Gold City to a Confucian Missionary, so that I would not forget on the following turn.

Both Workers started Mining the Iron. I figured that if anyone wanted to object to connecting-up the Iron, they'd object to the Road instead of the Mine, so I'll build the Road last, giving people a tiny bit more time to still object, if they so choose.


Anyway, we advanced the turn, since, with Anarchy in place, there wasn't much to do after the units had been pushed around and after I'd checked all of the AI-related screens and found no new info.


So, it's Turn 139, 525 BC and I had a little bit of a scare. A Barb Galley appeared out of a completely unexpected area: north of Iron City.
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Either it spawned there, it snuck in there and stayed up there between the time of landing our units on the Iron City's Island and now, or else there is another connection from this island to a different island that doesn't exist in our test game.

Anyway, our Trireme will have sufficient time to position itself on Iron City's Clam, so I'm not really all that worried.

In the absolute worst case, the Barb Galley wins and gets like 2 or 3 promos, so maybe the Galley will stay relatively close just in case (inside of Pig City looks like a good spot)... I don't see why we can't pick up BOTH Confucian Missionaries later as part of the same trip, particularly, as was pointed out earlier, we still have the turns of Anarchy in which to transport the Confucian Missionaries around. Thus, we might as well play things safely and keep our own Galley in the neighbourhood.
 
I still haven't figured out the best way to deal with Math, but one possibility that I have just thought of is as follows:
- The Iron will be Mined and Roaded within 1 turn of completion. Each turn, we will have a Worker that hasn't completed its action for that turn which will be ready to Road the Iron at a moment's notice but won't actually Road it
- Take Hunting from an AI that won't trade Math around, such as Isabella
- Gift Math to everyone else except for Cathy
- Trade Math to Cathy for Archery. This way, it will be the smallest-valued trade possible in terms of angering Isabella for having traded with her Worst Enemy. I have no clue how much of a negative Diplo modifier that we'll get, but certainly it will be 3 times less than what we'd get if we straight-up gifted Math to Cathy

This way, we will avoid creating a "tech trade deficit" between AIs that could be exploited for an AI-AI tech swap.
 
It is Turn 140, 500 BC.

The Barb Galley "took the bait" and came towards our Trireme. Since the Barb Galley cannot reach any Seafood from here, I plan to just leave the Trireme where it is, which, if we win, leaves our Trireme in a centralized location. In the unlikely even that we lose, then hopefully, our Galley will be able to clean up.
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Gold City just went back to being Happy and will grow to City Size 9 in 2 turns. This situation will temporarily change once we grow again shortly, after which we will 1-pop-whip and will still be Unhappy, but then we'll switch into Representation, so it will be all good.
 
When the Barb Galley dies, another one will appear somewhere... hopefully not near us.


We do have the possibility (the possibilty will still exist next turn, so we can wait until then) of 2-pop-whipping the Confucian Missionary in Gold City and overflowing into an early Trireme 2. It's not a possibility that I want to push for, but it is a possibility that will exist in case of an emergency.

Anyway, next turn we'll learn Math, so we'll need to pause things anyway.
 
I forgot to say that I hired the Engineer in Paris... actually... it was done automatically... I guess the game "remembered" that we'd done so previously or else decided via some other means, like seeing that we were getting close to completing a Wonder and actually being "intelligent" about its Specialist-assignments for a change.
 
Vicky will Open Borders with us again, whenever we want to do so. I won't wait to see if we want to do so on this turn (we can always do so in the future and I don't think that we really want to do so anyway), as there's not much else left to do this turn except to hope that we'll win versus the Barb Galley.
 
It is now Turn 141, 485 BC.

The silly Barb Galley did not take the bait and snookered me by walking on top of Iron City's Clam. Haha, I should have seen that one coming. Oh well, we still get 88%+ odds of winning, so I'm not really worried.


As for Math... I also forgot that Isabella doesn't have Hunting. Anyway, even if she had have had Hunting, she made my idea moot by learning Math herself this turn. I know that she did, because I checked last turn and she didn't have Math... but she does have it now.

Not to worry... she and Ragnar both knowing Math would NOT have been sufficient for us to have gotten it in trade, so we don't have to feel bad... we made the right choice by self-teching it.


Anyway, my NEW proposal is:
- Don't connect up the Iron's Road (we can do so EXACTLY on this turn but I have not moved the 2nd Worker yet--the first one brought the Iron's Road to being 1-Worker-turn-away from completion)
- Trade Math to Vicky for Hunting, since she doesn't really know anyone but the Unknown AI and we can't control what goes on with the Unknown AI anyway... plus, they can't trade unless the Unknown AI already knows Alphabet
- On the following turn, Gift Math to Willem, then trade Math to Cathy for Archery. Doing so has the least impact on angering Isabella, although we'll probably still end up becoming Isabella's Worst Enemy, since we're only one -1 negative Diplo point away from tying Cathy for Isabella's most hated rival
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Anyway, Research has been set to Currency at a 100% Science Rate.


We got our Great Scientist and the 2 Scientist Specialists have been fired. Actually, since we are about to grow into Unhappiness in Gold City, we certainly could consider 2-pop-whipping the Confucian Missionary there, as then we'd be growing at a rate of +2 Food per turn (but would have to make up for an additional population point). I'd rather stick to the plan and just 1-pop-whip there, but the option of a 2-pop-whip exists.
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Where's our WB spy right now?
To the NW of the Horse. It has yet to move, so on this turn, it will arrive at the location that I had previously marked for spawn-busting.
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I'm thinking that that location is just as good as any for spotting Ragnar's boats, but if you have a better suggestion of where we'd like the Work Boat to end up, let me know.
 
Could you attack the barb galley with the trieme, so we will know whether we need to build a replacement?

I'm OK with your tech trading plan.

Vicky will Open Borders with us again, whenever we want to do so. I won't wait to see if we want to do so on this turn (we can always do so in the future and I don't think that we really want to do so anyway), as there's not much else left to do this turn except to hope that we'll win versus the Barb Galley.

Why would we not want open borders with her? As we want to trade for a couple of techs with the AI speeding up her research would be a good thing.

I have never seen an AI amphibious force at this stage of the game with more than 2 galleys, so 2 centrally positioned triemes+scout should be OK for defense against Ragnar.

Is there any chance we could scout the north of iron island sometime in the near future?

If we did a 2 pop whip in gold city, would we still be at size 9 when we planned to make the big revolt?
 
In my experience, 4 units on 2 galleys seems right. According to bestsss, an attack force is ready once (Number of cities + Total population)/4 = Number of attack units (which are CR, C1 Archer/HA). This is specifically for Max War - I have no idea what this one is, nor how to find out, nor what the attack force for others is. Ragnar currently has 3 cities with 13 pop visible, which returns 4 units, but could be up to 5. That sounds right - I think we're looking at 2 galleys most probably.

2 triremes could be ok, unless one of them happens to lose at 67% and a barb galley heads for Pig city at the same moment. In that case, we're two triremes too short. I'm ok taking the risk, if you guys are, but I would play this safer given how tight our empire management is supposed to be for the GP stage.

Sign OB with Victoria.

Kill the barb galley.

We're obviously gonna build forges and barracks everywhere. As our cities pop their GP's they should get on those immediately. IMHO, there's no need for further infrastructure, beyond Gran/LH > Forge/Rax.
 
Agree kill the galley.

I'm neutral on OB.

Isn't it better to just throw a few hammers into a forge and barracks for whipping purposes? We can do a whipping cycle of forge --> catapult (for bombarding only) --> barracks --> mace.

Also, if it looks like Ragnar is going to attack us, we should declare on him rather than vice versa so that the "refuse to talk" time frame is shorter.

edit: as for who is up next -- does anybody have time to pick up the save next?
 
Also, if it looks like Ragnar is going to attack us, we should declare on him rather than vice versa so that the "refuse to talk" time frame is shorter.

I agree, but mainly because if we didn't Ragnar might be able to land his troops by marble city if we didn't. I doubt Ragnar would get to gather a second strike force before he was willing to talk to us.

2 triremes could be ok, unless one of them happens to lose at 67% and a barb galley heads for Pig city at the same moment. In that case, we're two triremes too short. I'm ok taking the risk, if you guys are, but I would play this safer given how tight our empire management is supposed to be for the GP stage.

2 unpromoted triemes actually have a 77.7% chance of winning. Hopefully one of our triemes will be promoted to combat 1 when it destroys the galley near iron city which would improve our odds to 80.1% We should also be able to keep a galley in the area most of the time to deal with any survivors, so I think we should be OK.



edit: as for who is up next -- does anybody have time to pick up the save next?

I now have plenty of time to play if need be.
 
Could you attack the barb galley with the trieme, so we will know whether we need to build a replacement?
Sure.


Why would we not want open borders with her? As we want to trade for a couple of techs with the AI speeding up her research would be a good thing.
Well, until Vicky meets others, she isn't going to be trading us techs, unless, say, Ragnar knows them, too, and then maybe only if Ragnar and the Unknown AI know them... so, there is a chance.

The possible downside to speeding-up AI Research is when any AI that chooses to go after Monarchy and/or Feudalism.

But sure, I'll Open Borders with Vicky.


I have never seen an AI amphibious force at this stage of the game with more than 2 galleys, so 2 centrally positioned triemes+scout should be OK for defense against Ragnar.
Where to amphibious attacks "form up"? The capital, if it is coastal? Anywhere? I've only ever seen Amphibious Assaults from AIs launched from a STACK of boats. Maybe it's worth sending the Work Boat Explorer right to the capital now, just to see if we see a stack of boats and how big it is?

If we don't see any, then I don't know what to think... either we're not the target or else the boats could be forming-up in a different City.


Is there any chance we could scout the north of iron island sometime in the near future?
Sure: I can move a Worker onto the Silk Resource.


If we did a 2 pop whip in gold city, would we still be at size 9 when we planned to make the big revolt?
I don't know and we don't have an accurately-updated test game, but let me fake this scenario using a test game.

A minor note about the screenshots:
Spoiler :
Note that I had to "fake" these screenshots quite a bit, so most of the detail is removed. For example, I started from the Turn 142 test game and then whipped and regrew and added a Happiness building in order to give us the correct relative values... but that means that we're starting with 9 Happiness / 9 Unhappiness... but don't worry, as the results will be the same.


So here's where we are now: 51/54 Food and about to grow into Unhappiness.
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2-pop-whipping: If we were to avoid working the Gold square and avoid hiring Scientists, here's where we could be maximally Food-wise in 3 turns, the turn on which The Pyramids should be completed:
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2-pop-whipping: If we were to work the Gold every turn, as well as Coast squares instead of Scientists, here's where we would be after 3 turns, at which point we will have The Pyramids built:
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The difference is +4 Food for the first scenario versus +3 turns of working the Gold Resource (+9 Hammers and +21 Commerce) for the second scenario. The first scenario is only ahead by 4 Food instead of 6 Food because we "efficiently" regrow 2 population points in 2 turns in the first scenario, but then we are punished with 1 turn of "working" an Unhappy person.

Therefore, if we were to 2-pop-whip, the ideal Food-based scenario would be to work the Gold Resource for 1 turn, then stop working the Gold Resouce for 2 turns, so that we'd have the same final Food as the first scenario but with 1 extra turn of having worked a Gold Resource in place of having "worked" an Unhappy person.


1-pop-whipping: Now, let's compare things to the planned case, which has us growing into Unhappiness next turn and then 1-pop-whipping 2 turns later:
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Thus, if we 2-pop-whip now and then work the Gold for 2 turn and stop working the Gold for 2 turns, on Turn 144, we will have:
35/54 Food (growth in 2 turns to Size 9)
1 turn of working the Gold
90 Hammers from whipping

If we do not 2-pop-whip now but instead wait for 2 turns and 1-pop-whip, then on Turn 144, we will have:
50/54 (growth in 1 turn to Size 9)
3 turns of working the Gold (an additional 6 Hammers and 14 Commerce)
45 Hammers from whipping


So, we'd lose out on 6 Hammers + 14 Commerce, but would gain a 45 Hammer whip, but would be behind on population growth.

How far behind would we be on population growth?

The 2-pop-whip scenario would take 2 turns to grow to Size 9
The 2-pop-whip scenario would take 3 turns to grow to Size 10


The 1-pop-whip scenario would take 1 turn to grow to Size 9
The 1-pop-whip scenario would take 3 turns to grow to Size 10
However, the 1-pop-whip scenario could reduce the growth to size 10 to 2 turns if we skipped working the Gold square for those 2 turns. The 2-pop-whip scenario cannot get this similar savings


We, however, seemed to be capped at 9 Health in Gold City. So, we'd probably only grow to Size 9, meaning a difference of 1 turn of growth.

That 1 turn of growth would mean 1 less turn of hiring 6 Scientists, in exchange for working 4 Coasts and 1 Gold for 1 turn, so:
8 Food + 3 Hammers + 15 Commerce
versus
36 Flasks + 36 Scientist GPP

As long as we're only growing to Size 9 in both scenarios (which we will be limited to, since we don't have 10 Healthiness in Gold City), then the difference in Food does not matter... otherwise, it can matter in terms of the 2-pop-whip scenario working the Gold more and the 1-pop-whip scenario working more turns of Scientists (but not quite as many, since the 1-pop-whip scenario would have a bit of extra overflow Food that would get "eaten up" at a deficit by additional turns of hiring 7 Scientists). Yet, this point is meaningless since we are unlikely to get +1 Health anytime soon (no one has offered up Resources for trading for a long time and no one has expanded to new Cities, so you have to assume that all AI Resources are hooked-up).


Thus, the 2-pop-whip gains us 42 Hammers and 1 Commerce, but loses us 36 Flasks and 36 Scientist GPP.
EDIT: I just saw Mitchum's message below... so... we might not actually "gain" the Flasks and Scientist GPP if we don't want to hire Scientists right away. In that case, then we're probably better off 2-pop-whipping since we are going to delay hiring Scientists for a couple of turns (apparently) anyway.
 
I'd peak peek at Nidaros. If you do that, note the unit promos.

Definitely better to DOW him, esp. as we'll know for sure once his galleys start moving.
 
Regarding Gold City, I thought we were going to throttle GPP there on purpose so that Paris and Marble pop the 2nd and 3rd GPs. I don't think Gold City HAS to be at size 9 when the 'Mids are in, right?
 
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