SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[Dhoomstriker]

If both barb galleys decide to attack our trieme it is dead,

Well, they both can't attack on the first turn, but if the one Galley DOES NOT attack on the first turn, then yes, likely, they will be able to double-team us on the following turn.

We could consider attacking immediately. We would have a 75% chance of winning, and if we won it could shelter in iron city, gain a promotion which should hopefully leave it in a position to defend the clams next turn.

Do the combat odds say that we'll get 3 Experience Points if we win? If so, then yeah, that's a pretty reasonable option, since we need 3 more Experience Points for our next promotion.


I'll comment on the PPP later. Do you have a target date/time in mind for when you'd like to start playing? I.e. A time that we should aim to give you feedback prior to?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

If we lost this trieme then our galley should be in a position to pick of the wounded galley.

Do you mean that our Galley would eventually kill the Barb Galley? I ask because our Galley is actually shuttling 2 Confucian Missionaries right now and it is to the west of Paris, so it will be a while before it reaches the eastern edge of our empire where the 2 Barb Galleys are currently located.


Worst case, though, we'll probably:
1. Lose our Trireme
2. Lose Iron City's Netted Clam
3. Hopefully, that will be it, when the Barb Galleys continue to chase Joao's Work Boat.


Also, although we haven't talked about it much, I understood from babybluepants that we would want to build Forges and Barracks. It looks like you're mostly focusing on Barracks.

Are we going to skip buiding Forges in several Cities? I mean, Forges work not only on base-input Hammers from squares worked but also from whipped Hammers. Assuming that they get whipped while using Organized Religion, they won't cost the full amount, eitiher.

Pigs:
T148 grow to size 6. Work mine.

Okay, I will trust your plan, but it seems weird that we're working a Mine instead of a Coast in a City that needs to produce one of our later Great People. I guess you have worked out the timing and found that this approach works out?

Marble:
T148 Grow size 7. Hire 3 scientists, work 1 coast
T149 Hire 4th scientist instead of working coast.

Do I understand things right in thinking that we're hiring the Specialists a bit slowly (i.e. not 4 Specialists on Turn 148) because we need to ensure that another City "beats" this one to generating a Great Person? Or is there some other reason?

Gold:
T147 Work gold, 3 seafood, 1 coast, and hire 3 scientists.
T148 Grow size 9. Hire 5 scientists, work gold+3 seafood
T151 Stop working 2 seafood and hire a scientist
T153 Build Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire scientist instead of working gold
T156 Generates GP2 100% GS for optics. Work gold, 3 seafood, hire 5 scientists. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T167 work 2 seafood+7 specialists
T175 Generates GP6 at 100% for astro

This City is the weirdest one... why spend turns not working Seafood Resources? Doesn't doing so cost us a lot of Food?

For example, on Turn 147, you have us working 1 Coast, but we don't need to work 1 Coast in order to grow to Size 9. Thus, couldn't you hire an extra Scientist right away and then later, when you planned to switch a Seafood to a Scientist, you won't need to do so?

Also, wouldn't it possibly make sense to spend 2 turns growing to Size 10 if we plan to
hire 7 Scientists at one point? Even with 1 Unhealthiness (although Netting the Crab should take care of that), we'd probably save Food compared to "not working" Seafood Resources for a period of time, wouldn't we?

Capital:
T161 Generates GP3. This will be used for engineering.

Am I right in assuming that once we generate a Great Person, we'll focus more on working the Mines? Or do we keep the Specialists hired simply because they give us a reasonably-high amount of Flasks?

As the result of this battle would have a significan effect on our plans I would like to make this move before planning further.

If we can earn 3 Experience Points from a win, it's fine by me if you want to try to attack the Barb Galley.

If we can't get 3 Experience Points, it might be better to just Heal in place, see if we get attacked, and if not, then consider sacrificing our Netted Clam by sending the Trireme to the west (to avoid being attacked by 2 Barb Galleys on the same turn). Then, Joao's Work Boat could still have a chance to lure the Barb Galleys away, but if not, we could probably fight them one-at-a-time when they chase us to the west. Presumably, we'd only lose the Netted Clam.

Currency-Machinery-Civil Service

So, we're not going to research Compass? Are we going to hope that a second AI Researches it and thus see if we can get it in trade from Willem?

Also, should we consider keeping our options open for possibly Lightbulbing Machinery? Hmmm, it looks like you have earmarked the capital's Great Person for Engineering. Fine by me, if you think that we'll be able to research the needed techs (Compass and Machinery) on time.

I guess that we're relying on getting Calendar in trade, right? Or can we get by if we have to self-tech it, too?

 

[Mitchum]

I don't think we should attack the barb galley either. I think we'll only get +2 experience points, not the needed +3.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

attack Joao's work boat since it can't get away

It looks like Joao's Work Boat should be able to continue 1W (1S of the Clam), 1NW (1W of the Clam).

From there, it could choose to go either:
1NW (1NE of the GPig), 1W (1N of the GPig), which would mean getting itself trapped
or:
1N (NW of the Clam), 1N (1W of the Plains Hills square), in which case it could continue on around Iron Island.


So, it's hard to say for certain whether the Work Boat will die, but if it does, that puts a Barb Galley precariously close to Pig City's Magical Fish.

 

[mdy]

don't think we should attack the barb galley either. I think we'll only get +2 experience points, not the needed +3. There is a good chance that one of the barb galleys will attack Joao's work boat since it can't get away, which would weaken it enough for us to finish off later.

We would get 3XP, however as we are charismatic wo would only need 2 to get another promotion.

Do you mean that our Galley would eventually kill the Barb Galley? I ask because our Galley is actually shuttling 2 Confucian Missionaries right now and it is to the west of Paris, so it will be a while before it reaches the eastern edge of our empire where the 2 Barb Galleys are currently located.

Yes, we would not attack an injured barb galley until after it had dropped the missionaries off.

Okay, I will trust your plan, but it seems weird that we're working a Mine instead of a Coast in a City that needs to produce one of our later Great People. I guess you have worked out the timing and found that this approach works out?

Working a coast would not actually make us grow faster, and we could use that extra warrior earlier.

Do I understand things right in thinking that we're hiring the Specialists a bit slowly (i.e. not 4 Specialists on Turn 148) because we need to ensure that another City "beats" this one to generating a Great Person? Or is there some other reason?

Yes, if we didn't marble city would generate GP number 2.

This City is the weirdest one... why spend turns not working Seafood Resources? Doesn't doing so cost us a lot of Food?

Yes it does, but we don't lose any population, and we need the extra GPP points in order to generate the final GP on time. We could work the seafood for longer at the expense of the gold, but I think we need the hammers to get the trieme being built there in a reasonably timely manner.

Am I right in assuming that once we generate a Great Person, we'll focus more on working the Mines? Or do we keep the Specialists hired simply because they give us a reasonably-high amount of Flasks?

I was thinking of keeping the specialists hired until it became clear how many beakers we would need in order to complete our research, and switch them to mines if it becomes clear we will have surplus beakers.

If we can't get 3 Experience Points, it might be better to just Heal in place, see if we get attacked, and if not, then consider sacrificing our Netted Clam by sending the Trireme to the west (to avoid being attacked by 2 Barb Galleys on the same turn). Then, Joao's Work Boat could still have a chance to lure the Barb Galleys away, but if not, we could probably fight them one-at-a-time when they chase us to the west. Presumably, we'd only lose the Netted Clam.

This would only be possible if the trieme was not too badly damaged in the battle. Depending on what Jaos workboat does it is conceivable that we could lose the pigs seafood as well which would be a disaster. Fortunately we can move our galley into a position to defend the fish in time.

So, we're not going to research Compass? Are we going to hope that a second AI Researches it and thus see if we can get it in trade from Willem?

Also, should we consider keeping our options open for possibly Lightbulbing Machinery? Hmmm, it looks like you have earmarked the capital's Great Person for Engineering. Fine by me, if you think that we'll be able to research the needed techs (Compass and Machinery) on time.

I guess that we're relying on getting Calendar in trade, right? Or can we get by if we have to self-tech it, too?

We will obviously need compass, I left it off the list because we may be able to trade for it. We only need to be able to trade for one of compass/calendar/construction. We have enough beakers to research the other 2 ourselves, though if we can trade for two we could pick up theology easily as a bonus.

Given that the capital will probably generate a GS we probably won't be able to bulb machinery, and if we got a GE we would still get marginally more beakers if we bulbed engineering.


I'll look at your idea for growing gold to size 10.

 

[mdy]

One thin has just occurred to me: If we got a GE in the capital we could use it to bulb machinery, self tech optics, and use the GS which we allocated to that to enginerring instead which would gain us a little under 200 beakers. If we did this we would tech aesthetics instead of machinery.

I'll comment on the PPP later. Do you have a target date/time in mind for when you'd like to start playing? I.e. A time that we should aim to give you feedback prior to?

I will have enough time to play on any day over the next couple of weeks, however given the deadline we don't want to spend too long discussing our strategy. I will attack the barb galley in around 10 hours if there are no objections before then.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Working a coast would not actually make us grow faster, and we could use that extra warrior earlier.

Sure, it makes sense. It's just that since I haven' (and probably most of us haven't) played with the numbers, I was just asking for a bit more visibility in terms of why certain citizen allocations were being made. It seems like you have a decent handle on the reasoning behind them.

Yes it does, but we don't lose any population, and we need the extra GPP points in order to generate the final GP on time. We could work the seafood for longer at the expense of the gold, but I think we need the hammers to get the trieme being built there in a reasonably timely manner.

I'll look at your idea for growing gold to size 10.

It may or may not work out for the better. I have a feeling that growing to Size 10 will work if we can get +1 Health, but without that +1 Health, it'll be a lot closer, with us basically weighing the Food needed to grow 1 population point versus the Food differential lost each turn between the cost of a Coast versus the cost of a Seafood (3 Food per turn).

I was thinking of keeping the specialists hired until it became clear how many beakers we would need in order to complete our research, and switch them to mines if it becomes clear we will have surplus beakers.

Sure, that approach is fine. I was more looking to know what the plan was than to give an opinion either way.

Are we still considering building Moai Statues in the capital? I forget what the result of that discussion turned out to be.

One thin has just occurred to me: If we got a GE in the capital we could use it to bulb machinery, self tech optics, and use the GS which we allocated to that to enginerring instead which would gain us a little under 200 beakers. If we did this we would tech aesthetics instead of machinery.

It looks like you are right about a Great Scientist being able to Lightbulb Engineering once we've gotten Astronomy, Aesthetics (which comes up as a Lightbulb preference before Engineering), and have not unlocked Paper (i.e. have not learned Theology or Civil Service). That's just me visually-inspecting the Great Person Tech Preferences list of techs from a text file, so I haven't confirmed it via in-game Lightbulbing, but the reasoning sounds correct.

I'm not sure what you're going to do for Research in the interim time between learning Currency and waiting to see what type of Great Person we will get... set Research to a 0% Science Rate while teching Compass?

I will have enough time to play on any day over the next couple of weeks, however given the deadline we don't want to spend too long discussing our strategy. I will attack the barb galley in around 10 hours if there are no objections before then.

My biggest objection was whether or not we'd earn sufficient Experience Points from a win in order to Heal half of our wounded hitpoint. Since we will (ha, I forgot about being Charismatic, but apparently that fact won't matter if we're getting 3 Experience Points anyway), so I'm fine with you attacking, but I'm also fine with you staying in place if you change your mind.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

T147 Gold works gold, 3 seafood, 1 coast, and hire 3 scientists.
T148 Gold grows size 9. Hire 5 scientists, work gold+3 seafood
T153 Gold build's Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire scientist instead of working gold
T156 Gold generates GP2 100% GS for optics. Work gold, 3 seafood, hire 5 scientists. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists

The "grow to Size 10" possibility is for Gold City's 3rd Great Person, so that decision won't affect many of the details for Gold City's 2nd Great Person.

However, since I already spent 1 turn working a Coast instead of the Gold, we don't need to work a Coast on Turn 147 in order to grow to Size 9... from what I recall, on turn 147, we can turn that Coast into a Scientist.

As a quick double-check:
City Centre = 2 Food
Fish = 6 Food
Clam 1 = 5 Food
Clam 2 = 5 Food
Total = 18 Food
Size 8 = 16 Food required
Thus we have the needed 2 Food surplus to grow without needing to work that Coast square


Of course, this tradeoff will likely be meaningless in terms of altering details like getting our Trireme faster or getting Great Person 2 faster, so it would only really apply if we weren't going to try to grow to Size 10 (better to get 1 turn of additional GPP at the cost of 1 turn working a Coast square than to later get 1 additional turn of GPP at the cost of working a Seafood square). If we are going to try to grow to Size 10, then we'll need to swap some Scientists for Coast squares anyway, thus it doesn't matter when you work the Coast square (it could be on Turn 147), as long as the difference won't alter the date of Great Person 2.


So, yeah... 1 Coast on Turn 147 is fine if you plan to eventually grow to Size 10, but it's probably going to cost us 3 Food later from not working a Seafood, meaning that if you aren't going to grow to Size 10, then you probably shouldn't work that Coast on Turn 147. Of course, it could be that you're only working Scientists in favour of Seafood Resources during a Golden Age, which would make a difference of 3 GPP, but it's still costly (grow 2 Food now, lose 5 Food later = lose 3 Food overall).

 

[Mitchum]

I'd still be inclined to have the barb galley attack our trireme, which could heal this turn to give it an even better chance. Don't we get a bonus for defending while on a coastal tile? Add to that the fact that we'll get another 0.2? experience points and out odds should be much better and we'll survive with more HP.

Maybe you're trying to protect against having both galleys attack us, not this IBT but the next one. Is that what we're doing? I would guess that the first galley would attack us but I'm not sure... checking test game...

I tried several tests and I couldn't get the barbs to attack a coastal trireme. Maybe they just know that the odds are bad and avoid the battle. So the risk of not attacking is that they galleys just go around our trireme and into the heart of our empire...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I tried several tests and I couldn't get the barbs to attack a coastal trireme. Maybe they just know that the odds are bad and avoid the battle. So the risk of not attacking is that they galleys just go around our trireme and into the heart of our empire...

Were you able to do any testing with a wounded unit? That's one annoying part about the World Builder...it's hard to get a unit to the right Health level... but you can always simiulate a fight and then Heal either inside or outside of a City so as to get different Healing rates and hopefully the right amount of hitpoints. Then it's just a matter of moving that unit into position and saving the game.


The "courage" factor (how willing a player is to attack against bad odds) is high for the Barbs and it might be high enough to attack a wounded Trireme.


From anecdotal evidence, Barb units and enemy AI units will always attack a wounded unit of mine in the open, but this fact could just be a result of them having improved odds and not necessarily because the unit was wounded... but if there is a rule about attacking wounded units, then we could use it to our advantage. I have no proof of such a rule, though.

 

[mdy]

I think I remember someone saying that barb galleys only attack if they have > 25% chance of winning. Can someone confirm this? If so it means our trieme is safe where it is.

 

[Mitchum]

In my testing, the trireme was at full strength. I didn't take the time to wound him properly.

I just ran the test again. The trireme had 1.7 strength (in our game it will have 1.8 if it stays where it is and heals) and the barb galley attacked at 20.2% odds. So maybe there is something to a barb attacking wounded units. The other barb galley turned around and went the other way back into the fog.

In trying to wound the trireme, I lost an 80% battle with a healthy trireme vs. a healthy barb galley. 80% battles are very easy to lose... I'd still prefer to heal 1 turn plus get the 10% bonus rather than letting the barb get said bonus.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I did some testing with fully-healthy Triremes.

A Barb Galley would be willing to attack an unpromoted, fully-healthy Trireme.

Then I got a Barb Galley to chase a Work Boat past an unpromoted, fully-healthy Trireme. The Barb Galley just sailed on past. So I chased the Barb Galley with the Trireme while the Work Boat led the Barb Galley on a wild goose chase. I did so for a very long time. Not once did the Barb Galley stop to attack the Trireme.


I repeated the same testing with 3 different wounded Triremes (each one had 1.7 Health and Combat I) chasing 2 different Barb Galleys. The Barb Galleys were chasing my 2 Work Boats. The 2 Triremes that were chasing the same Barb Galley never ended their turns on the same square as each other, so some turns only 2 Triremes could be attacked, sometimes 3, depending upon the Coastal layout in the area.


Well, the same results held: the Barb Galleys kept chasing the Work Boats forever and ever.


Then, I tried replacing my Work Boats with AI Work Boats, but I had to change the AI "Mission" for the Work Boats otherwise they just sat there. I only did this testing with the wounded Triremes, but the same results seemed to hold: the Barb Galleys would "choose to attack" and would "try to attack the weakest unit," which just happened to be a Work Boat.


So, I think that a very safe approach will to be just to leave the Trireme where it is and "do nothing."

We can certainly get some Experience Points if we attack and win, but if we attack and lose, it'll be a pretty disasterous blow to us.

I think I remember someone saying that barb galleys only attack if they have > 25% chance of winning.

Also, at the end, when I let the Work Boats die and the Triremes stay in place, the Combat I Triremes ended up healing themselves. Barb Galleys were still willing to attack these fully-healthy, Combat I Triremes, which give the Barb Galleys absolutely terrible odds of success.

So, the Barbs' "courage factor" can definitely get them to attack at crazy odds--but given two targets, they'll pick the easier one, which means that they'll ignore our Trireme.

 

[mdy]

Can the AI see units 2 tiles away when it is chasing a unit. I so the above arguments make a convincing case for leaving the trieme where it is. If not the galley would be likely to attack our trieme instead.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Yes, a Barb Galley can see units 2 squares away... in fact, it can target units 4 squares away.

AI boats will consider any unit that is within attacking distance on this turn or on the following turn.

Since Barb Galleys have 2 movement points, that means that any boat that is 4 squares away or less is a valid target. That's how I was able to "lead" the Barb Galleys around using a Work Boat when I was testing, just like what Joao II is doing in the real game.

If you're still not convinced, then read this link about Barbarians, which is one of the links that comes from the third message in this thread. The same info is described, but it is backed with code-reading instead of just test-game play.

 

[mdy]

OK, I'm convinced.

We might be able to build the Maori in the capital after it has generated it's GP IF tech and gold trading with the AI's goes well, otherwise I can't see us having the production to build it as we would need the beakers from the scientist.

Forges are expensive to whip even with OR. I'm not sure delaying our first war would be worth whipping them, as such my plan only includes building the one in stone city which we can finish/come close to finishing by the end of our research phase.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I'm not necessarily sold on building Moai Statues (do you play a different language version where it is named "Maori" instead?) or Forges everywhere, but if we're going to build them, I would think that it would make sense to start building them soon...

I.e. If a City is going to build a Forge, we should probably start to build a Forge wherever you have listed that we'd be building a Barracks (unless the City already has a Forge). Similarly, if we're going to build Moai Statues, we'll probably want to start building it as the next build item in Paris.


I see what you are saying... Moai Statues makes more sense if we can spend some times working the GH Mines in Paris instead of hiring Specialists.


There is, of course, the option PLANNING to work the GH Mines. If we aren't done our Research, we could consider staying in Representation for a little while after the end of our Golden Age if our required Research isn't done, while we hire 2 Scientists instead of working Coast squares in some of our Cities... if we're building Forges and/or Barracks before Military Units, then we won't necessarily need Police State immediately.

Alternately, we can still switch into Police State and just get Commerce from Trade Routes and Coastal squares in order to finish off the remaining Research... nothing says that we HAVE to be done our Research in order to be able to switch Civics and start whipping. All that we really care about is generating our Great People, right? If they have been generated, then they can be Lightbulbed a bit later, if needed, just like how we saved the Great Scientist for Philosophy for a while.



Ideally, you'll have worked out whether Gold City growing to Size 10 is going to work for you. If growing to Size 10 is going to work for you, then hopefully you will have figured out at least a rough date for when you'll want start hiring 7 Scientists (while working 3 Seafood squares) there (presumably several turns before launching the Golden Age).


Another thought: maybe we won't even need a Barracks in every single City, if one or two Cities will be dedicated to building boats.

 

[mdy]

I've been trying to get Dooms idea of growing gold to size 10 and I can't get it to work without delaying the final GP by 1T to T177, and losing several scientist turns in gold/capital. This would also mean delaying the golden age by 1T.

I thin we should therefore stick with the gold stays at size 9 plan, which I have tweked slightly:




Bulb philosophy with GP1 immediately.
Revolt to CS+pacifism+representation immediately.

By Turn:





By city:

Pigs:
T148 grow to size 6. Work mine.
T151 grow to size 7. Work 2 seafood 1 coast and 4 scientists.
T152 work 2 seafood and hire 5 scientists
T154 warrior built. Start Barracks. Use warrior for stone garrison.
T172 Generates GP5. 100%GS for astro


Marble:
T148 Grow size 7. Hire 3 scientists, work 1 coast
T149 Hire 4th scientist instead of working coast.
T154 Build warrior for exploration/barb warning. Start Barracks
T167 Generates GP4 for golden age.
T167 Start golden age.


Gold:
T147 Work gold, 3 seafood, gold, and hire 4 scientists.
T148 Grow size 9. Hire 5 scientists, work gold+3 seafood
T153 Build Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire 2 scientist instead of working gold and seafood
T156 Generates GP2 100% GS for astro. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T174 work 2 seafood+7 specialists
T176 Generates GP6 at 100% for engineering


Capital:
T147 work 3 seafood 2 mines, 2 coasts. Start Barracks.
T148 work 3 seafood 1 mine 1 coast, hire 2 scientists
T149 grow to size 8, work 3 seafood, hire 5 scientist
T161 Generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.
T175 Finish barracks. Start axe (will be converted to mace)

Stone:
T152 grow to size 4, work desert hill
T155 Finish trieme.
T167 grow to size 5, work workshop
T170 Build forge. Start Barracks
T174 Finish barracks. Start galley(to be converted into galleon)

Iron:
granary-lighthouse-warrior-barracks
I haven't planned this city out in more detail because it depends on what the barb galleys do.

Barb/Ragnar Defense:



Keep the trieme fortified on the clam until it is healed, pick off barb galleys when possible at 100% health.

In the long one I propose keeping 1 trieme 1S of the gold fish, 1 3W of the fish south of gold, and one to protect the iron nets. As we don't need the extra health from the crabs the WB near Ragnar can be used to net the second iron clams eventually. This would leave us in a position to cover barb attacks from all angles, and to DOW Ragnar if it looks like he is going to attack us, and attack 2 of his galleys before he could land any troops anywhere. Given that he does not currently have any offensive units in his capital this should not be for a while.

The workboat near Ragnar's capital will head back to gold, so it will be available for luring barb galleys away from our seafood, as our barb defense in that area is currently non existent. Once both the triemes have been build the WB will net the remaining iron-clams.

After dropping the Confunican missionaries off the galley will temporarily stay on the pigs fish until the barb situation has been cleared up before picking up the warrior being built in marble and send it to explore William/Catherines landmass.

Espionage:

Keep the minimum espionage on William in order to see his research. Divert the rest to try to get access to Victoria's demographics again.

Research:

Currency-aesthetics-Civil Service(stop 1T before completion). What we tech next depends on what we think we can get from the AI's in trade, and what GP we get in Paris.


This leaves us in a position to finish our research, GP generation, and revolt on T176.

By Date:

T147 Capital works 3 seafood 2 mines, 2 coasts. Start Barracks.
T147 Gold works gold, 3 seafood, gold, and hire 4 scientists.
T148 Gold grows size 9. Hire 5 scientists, work gold+3 seafood
T148 Pigs grows to size 6. Work mine.
T148 Marble grows to size 7. Hire 3 scientists, work 1 coast
T148 Capital works 3 seafood 1 mine 1 coast, hire 2 scientists
T149 Capital grows to size 8, work 3 seafood, hire 5 scientist
T149 Marble hires 4th scientist instead of working coast.
T151 Pigs grows to size 7. Work 2 seafood 1 coast and 4 scientists.
T152 Pigs works 2 seafood and hire 5 scientists
T152 Stone grows to size 4, work desert hill
T153 Gold builds Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire 2 scientist instead of working gold and seafood
T154 Pigs builds warrior. Start Barracks. Use warrior for stone garrison.
T154 Marble builds warrior for exploration.
T155 Stone builds trieme.
T156 Gold generates GP2 100% GS for astro. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T161 Capital generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.
T167 Marble generates GP4 for golden age.
T167 Stone grows to size 5, work workshop
T167 Start golden age.
T170 Stone builds forge. Start Barracks
T172 Pigs generates GP5. 100%GS for astro
T174 Gold works 2 seafood+7 specialists
T174 Stone builds barracks. Start galley(to be converted into galleon)
T175 Capital finishes barracks. Start axe (will be converted to mace)
T176 Gold generates GP6 at 100%GS for engineering

 

[mdy]

I.e. If a City is going to build a Forge, we should probably start to build a Forge wherever you have listed that we'd be building a Barracks (unless the City already has a Forge). Similarly, if we're going to build Moai Statues, we'll probably want to start building it as the next build item in Paris.

pigs and gold would only make 1 hammer per turn, and marble 2, so we wouldn't make much progress on a forge whenever we started on it. Even if we did a 3 pop whip under OR it would take another 4-5 whips for the forge to break even in these low production cities. Whilst we will clearly do more whips than this, so the total hammer put into militarty units would be greater with forges, there is one big drawback: It would delay our first war by several turns. I don't think extra units later can overcome this disadvantage.

nothing says that we HAVE to be done our Research in order to be able to switch Civics and start whipping. All that we really care about is generating our Great People, right?

This is true, however as our research rate would drop dramatically after we leave representation/CS it could only handle a relatively small shortfall.

I could play as far as currency (T150) this evening. If we did decide to go with forges we would not have the spare production to start before then, so we can keep this option open for now.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

pigs and gold would only make 1 hammer per turn, and marble 2, so we wouldn't make much progress on a forge whenever we started on it. Even if we did a 3 pop whip under OR it would take another 4-5 whips for the forge to break even in these low production cities. Whilst we will clearly do more whips than this, so the total hammer put into militarty units would be greater with forges, there is one big drawback: It would delay our first war by several turns. I don't think extra units later can overcome this disadvantage.

Well, seeing as we're going up against a team that probably built 0 Forges, I'm okay with you skipping Forges in several Cities.

Delaying our first war is going to be a very bad thing, as we're going to have a short enough window between getting our techs and capturing the world as it is.


So, on that note, Moai Statues should probably not be built, either. I did some thinking about them: they are pretty expensive (at half of the cost of The Pyramids) and the City that we'd build them in (Paris) is better off whipping... but, if it is whipping, then it doesn't have a lot of Coast squares to work.

And, if we're running Police State, we won't have a lot of population points. Since Paris already has 3 non-Coastal "good squares" that it would work before working Coast squares (the Corn plus the 2 GH Mines) and since we'd probably stay around Size 5 or 6 due to Unhappiness from whipping and not having a high Happines cap after Representation limiting us, it would take a while for Moai Statues to pay itself off.

Similar to the Forges in the low-production Cities, Moai Statues would EVENTUALLY pay itself off, but we want to be able to pump out a ton of units shortly after the Great-Person-Generation time period, and buidling Moai Statues would delay this Military-Unit-spamming effort.


So, sure: let's forget about Moai Statues. Let's forget about building Forges in any City that you don't think will be able to make productive use out of a Forge.

One more consideration about the Forges not being very useful:
1. Forges are an ADDITIVE bonus, not a multiplicative bonus, for when we are using Organinzed Religion to build Buildings, such as a Barracks
AND
2. Forges are an ADDITIVE bonus, not a multiplicative bonus, for when we are using Police State to building Military Units


Thus, while Forges are nice, their bonuses can "come for free" with Civics, thus saving a lot more of our population for being whipped into Military Units instead of into Buildings. Buildings can't go out and capture Cities, after all!