SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[WastinTime]

My conclusion for our best plan of action:

1. Give Hatty Currency for closing borders with Toku. Do not ask for 50 gold.
2. Liberate GatewayCity
3. Beg for 10 gold for 10 turns of peace.

Alternatively, if we can't beg for gold:

1. Give Hatty Currency for closing borders with Toku. Do not ask for 50 gold.
2. Liberate GatewayCity
3. If she won't grant us peace, close borders with Hatty

When, in your plan, are you giving away Gateway City? I don't see either of these plans being viable if you're planning to give it away before it builds a boat. I think we can watch Hatty troop movements and hold off forcing peace as long as possible...or never. She may never DoW us if we give away Gateway after the boat and then give away Corn/coastal after the caravel upgrade. Closing borders w/ Hatty seems like a worst case scenario.

 

[shulec]

When, in your plan, are you giving away Gateway City? I don't see either of these plans being viable if you're planning to give it away before it builds a boat. I think we can watch Hatty troop movements and hold off forcing peace as long as possible...or never. She may never DoW us if we give away Gateway after the boat and then give away Corn/coastal after the caravel upgrade. Closing borders w/ Hatty seems like a worst case scenario.

This all happens on T121. Testing suggests we will lose the city no matter what. The first option allows us to keep OB. The second doesn't, but hopefully keeps us from getting dogpiled.

It doesn't look very good all around.

Edit: The worst case scenario is Hatty declares on us and gets Genghis to join in. We lose Gateway City, we lose OB, it makes it that much harder to get hinduism into Gengisgawa's lands.

If we can maintain peace, we will be at pleased with Hatty and she will eventually open borders with us.

 

[DanF5771]

Away from the game so can't contribute with tests.

What happens if we liberate Gateway and beg for gold to get the peace treaty but not let Hatse close borders with Toku?

Has nobody else found the switch of war target + nearly instant DoW on other AIs after getting a last minute peace treaty?
Could Hatse DoW Toku instead that way?

We will not be able to liberate Gateway to Hatse for +diplo if we keep it long enough to let it build a boat first due to Stonehenge city culture.

 

[shulec]

Away from the game so can't contribute with tests.

What happens if we liberate Gateway and beg for gold to get the peace treaty but not let Hatse close borders with Toku?

Has nobody else found the switch of war target + nearly instant DoW on other AIs after getting a last minute peace treaty?
Could Hatse DoW Toku instead that way?

We will not be able to liberate Gateway to Hatse for +diplo if we keep it long enough to let it build a boat first due to Stonehenge city culture.

Test 7: Liberate Gateway City, beg for 10 gold: Next turn simulated Hatty declares on Toku, even at Friendly.

In this scenario, Hatty shows 110 gold before the liberation and after liberation, zero gold on the trade screen. I had to give 50 gold to get her to have 10 gold for which I could beg.

If this works, it is looking like our best scenario.

In the real game, Hatsegawa is pleased with Toku. We also have 80 gold available (60 gold from Genghigawa for Theology and 20 gold from Cyrusgawa for Theology) if we need to give Hatty gold to get her to give us gold.

 

[WastinTime]

Isn't it a huge gamble that Hatty will even give us 10 gold? Seems like I can never get the AI to do this when I need it. And even if that did work, I still don't like that plan, not even a little bit.

I see the best case scenario includes getting a boat t127. The plan you suggest immediately gives away the grand prize...the boat. It pins our hopes on the corn/coastal city to build a boat which it probably can't do until well after t134. Which means we would not get Genghis a vote in time for anything until t155.

I thought we had a good plan based on Kaitzilla's testing. He's already shown that we can have this play out the way we want. I think we should go for the best case.

 

[shulec]

Isn't it a huge gamble that Hatty will even give us 10 gold? Seems like I can never get the AI to do this when I need it. And even if that did work, I still don't like that plan, not even a little bit.

I see the best case scenario includes getting a boat t127. The plan you suggest immediately gives away the grand prize...the boat. It pins our hopes on the corn/coastal city to build a boat which it probably can't do until well after t134. Which means we would not get Genghis a vote in time for anything until t155.

I thought we had a good plan based on Kaitzilla's testing. He's already shown that we can have this play out the way we want. I think we should go for the best case.

Kaitzilla's game is flawed in that he doesn't have OB with Joao/Hatty when he gets borders to close. We have open borders with Hatty in the real game, and when we close borders, the troops are teleported to the Corn in our lands.

Download both saves and see for yourself.

 

[shulec]

I did another test with DanF's suggestion, but on Kaitzilla's save.

I liberated a city to Joao, then begged for peace, and he attacked Mansa(Toku) the next turn.

I think this is our best option.

 

[shulec]

Here is what I propose we do:

1. Liberate Gateway City to Hatty.

2. Beg for 10 gold if she will offer it.

• If she says yes, she should declare on Toku the next turn.
• If she doesn't offer gold, trade theology to get 80 gold to give to Hatty to try to get her allow us to beg.
• If she declines our beg, Bribe her to close borders with Toku, then Close borders with her.

 

[WastinTime]

[*]If she declines our beg, Bribe her to close borders with Toku, then Close borders with her.

I could not be more against this result. The only thing worse than giving away Gateway is closed borders w/ Hatty.

 

[WastinTime]

I did another test with DanF's suggestion, but on Kaitzilla's save.

I liberated a city to Joao, then begged for peace, and he attacked Mansa(Toku) the next turn.

I think this is our best option.

What happens if our Corn is in the fog for Hatty and her units teleport back to her land?
I tested this. It seems likely that hatty has not revealed our corn, true? So that would mean we have until the stack can get all the way up to Gateway City to make peace.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Kaitzilla's game is flawed in that he doesn't have OB with Joao/Hatty when he gets borders to close. We have open borders with Hatty in the real game, and when we close borders, the troops are teleported to the Corn in our lands.

Download both saves and see for yourself.

I forgot to have open borders with Joao! doh. Yes, the SoD will teleport onto our corn when the embargo happens if they have vision of our lands. Great work Shulec!

I pressed next turn to see what would happen, and Joao both declared war while inside our borders and took simulated BridgeTown with a war chariot I think.


I'm definitely leaning towards (Liberate) and 10 gold beg for peace treaty now. Will 80 gold be enough to enable a 10 gold beg? Gifting a city does appear to send the AI's gold down to 0.

Hopefully Hatty who is much more aggressive than Joao will attack Tokugawa.

Otherwise we have until T131 (peace treaty expires) to get the new corn city settled (with axes guarding it?) and a trireme chopped out of it. Since it will take until T127 to settle it, we might want to steal Code of Laws as our 3rd tech after Machinery and Compasss so we can run a Caste artist in our new city to try and quickly steal some forests from Hatty.

 

[WastinTime]

I've found another flaw in the testing. If you remove Joao's (Hattys) western cities and put in a few in more correct locations, the SoD will now teleport to the tile 3E1S of Satsuma! (instead of near Hatstown) From there it looks like 10 turns before the SoD can get to Gateway City. Maybe 9 if they build a road.

I'm going out for the rest of the day. I might check in from my phone.

Don't do anything I wouldn't do ;-)

 

[Kaitzilla]

Here is what I propose we do:

1. Liberate Gateway City to Hatty.

2. Beg for 10 gold if she will offer it.

• If she says yes, she should declare on Toku the next turn.
• If she doesn't offer gold, trade theology to get 80 gold to give to Hatty to try to get her allow us to beg.
• If she declines our beg, Bribe her to close borders with Toku, then Close borders with her.

We cannot close borders with Hatty because I signed an open borders treaty with her on T116

I guess what it all comes down to is, has Hatty explored our eastern lands yet?

 

[Kaitzilla]

I've found another flaw in the testing. If you remove Joao's (Hattys) western cities and put in a few in more correct locations, the SoD will now teleport to the tile 3E1S of Satsuma! (instead of near Hatstown) From there it looks like 10 turns before the SoD can get to Gateway City. Maybe 9 if they build a road.

I'm going out for the rest of the day. I might check in from my phone.

Don't do anything I wouldn't do ;-)

Gah. We need a PhD in civ 4 teleportation mechanics. Joao's western city locations influenced where the SoD went?

 

[WastinTime]

Gah. We need a PhD in civ 4 teleportation mechanics. Joao's western city locations influenced where the SoD went?

Yep, I tried moving the capital. No effect.
But moving the cites east did.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Meh, I suppose we could always do the embargo first and decide on the peace treaty once we see where the stack ends up.

On the other hand, DanF mentioned that signing the peace treaty first and NOT signing the embargo might get Hatty to attack Toku instead. This would be very good for us would allow us to take our time settling corn and building a boat without being under the gun.

Also, in the test game teleporting Joao's stack back to his lands gave simulated BridgeTown time until the stack got there. If we do the same thing with Hatty's stack, how sure are we that she will do the same thing with her stack? She has a bigger military and is more aggressive than Joao was and might not wait for her SoD to reach BridgeTown to attack it.

Thanks goodness we have that settler/hindu combo up north searching for another boat building site. This might all go badly no matter what we decide.


This is why I don't usually play diplo games.

My questions always vastly exceed my ability to answer them. A massive army simplifies all questions!

 

[WastinTime]

Seems like with shulec's plan, if the beg fails, we are doomed.

Here's a thought.

We do the embargo and hope the units don't go to our Corn. If they're not on the Corn, we hold on to Gateway until the boat comes out t127.
(cross post w/ Kaitzilla)

If they do move to the corn, we beg at 'cautious' and take a -1 diplo hit. If it works, we keep GatewayCity and Hats DOWs Toku.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Seems like with shulec's plan, if the beg fails, we are doomed.

Here's a thought.

We do the embargo and hope the units don't go to our Corn. If they're not on the Corn, we hold on to Gateway until the boat comes out t127.
(cross post w/ Kaitzilla)

If they do move to the corn, we beg at 'cautious' and take a -1 diplo hit. If it works, we keep GatewayCity and Hats DOWs Toku.

Begs at cautious are demands aren't they? I thought AI's giving into demands were based on their power ratio to yours. Hatty's got such a strong military that she might reject it out of hand if that is the case.

I think if the stack ends up on our corn, we should (Liberate) Bridgetown to Hatty and try for the 10 gold beg at pleased. I think the corn city T127 has a good chance to steal the 2 forests south of it if we infect it with Hindu and run an artist with a lucky Code of Laws steal. Then again, the hammer might fall T131 when the peace treaty expires and we might not have Optics or the boat finished by then.

**Edit**
I've thought about it more, and I like the 10 gold demand after the embargo if Hatty's units get teleported home. We get a shot at a 10 turn peace treaty without giving up our boat building city on top of the chance that we get a grace period for the SoD walking up to take the city. We don't have to risk Hatty not having enough gold after the liberation either. We don't really care about the -1 diplo hit, and if it fails it hardly makes war more likely.

If the stack is teleported onto our corn, a wardec by Hatty on us is nearly 100% certain T122. BridgeTown will be captured on T122 also. If we demand 10 gold and succeed, then BridgeTown is safe. If we fail, our best option is probably to gift BridgeTown to Ghenghis and move our army towards taking a Hatty city(maybe her southmost unseen city is coastal?). If she defies the AP resolution to stop war with us, we can keep warring with her until we take hilltop Heliopolis deep in her territory. That would be close enough to Ghenghis BridgeTown to gift a Hindu Heliopolis to him. Would an AP forced peace and shared war with Liz be enough to get Hatty to open borders with us again?

Any way you cut it, a war dec by Hatty would be very bad. We would lose the settler and both Hindu missionaries and might face war with Ghenghis too if she brings him in. (Liberate) and 10 gold beg might be the best odds for avoiding war with Hatty and getting a Hindu gift city to Ghenghis, but it probably won't get us a boat on the eastern ocean.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Tested some 10 gold demands and begs on various AI in the test game.

2 out of 7 demands for 10 gold were successful.
6 out of 7 begs for 10 gold were successful.

AI who had 0 gold sometimes had 10-50 gold to beg after being gifted 1gpt.

In the Shulec modified test game, Joao attacked Mansa after we got a 10 turn peace treaty beg, didn't do the embargo, and the SoD was transported onto our corn.

 

[shulec]

What happens if our Corn is in the fog for Hatty and her units teleport back to her land?
I tested this. It seems likely that hatty has not revealed our corn, true? So that would mean we have until the stack can get all the way up to Gateway City to make peace.

There are a few chariots in the city 3 tiles from GatewayCity. That city will die in about 2 turns of war.