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SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 15, 2012.

  1. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    I disagree. We are potentially a War target of the AI Team (at least someone is their target). Why would we invite a DoW from the AI Team? Also, if at least one of the AI Team doesn't have a Hindu city, they will not become part of the Holy War on our side against Shakagawa and more importantly we lose out on the Holy War enforced Open Borders. We don't really known when the AI Team will adopt Mercantilism, but it will allow Open Border at best 10t later when net Diplomacy hits +5 with the AI Team.

    Also, the Hindu Missionary on our 7 move Caravel is intended to use used for the city given to Huayanagawa, regardless of whether its the Moses city 7-E of Thebes or captured Akhetaten.



    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  2. mabraham

    mabraham Deity

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    There's been talk of getting a missionary through Shaka territory to SBB in readiness for the galley play. If this is workable, it needs to be planned out carefully with respect to the two closures of borders that can matter to it.

    An alternative is to send two missionaries for Bulawayo with the main stack, and a third one started T146 in SheepTown (after Moses gift) to move to EastPort to board Patton to move to Karakorum to anticipate OB with Genghis from Shaka Holy War (which is a requirement of the SBB boat plan), so that the missionary can walk safely over Genghis land to the SBB boat. This makes the micro in the east independent of the SBB missionary, as far as I can see.
     
  3. mabraham

    mabraham Deity

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    It would be nice if you said why you think this would invite a DOW from the AI team, instead of leaving us to guess... You think they'd DOW us because they now have a land target? If so, then that's a good reason to do the Moses gift the turn we settle it, lest their war with us make them unprepared to accept Bulawayo from us later.

    The logic here is a bit circular. For our main plan, we don't need OB with the Team if they've accepted the Moses gift, unless they're at war with Shaka and we'll need to defend Bulawayo for them, which will only happen if they've accepted the Moses gift and are in the holy war. If Moses does not succeed, then we need OB with the team for spreading to South - but in this case the Team will not DOW us because they have no valid land target.

    Getting OB with the Team is a relevant concern if the Bulawayo plan fails and the SBB boat plan can work. However if Moses succeeds then Holy War should work for OB, and if Moses fails then we already needed to get OB.
     
  4. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    I propose to teleport one turn earlier from 1-SW of Shaka's Copper Mine with .3 moves of the stack left, so they can move one plot after the teleport. I do believe we would need to keep Hummuragawa's borders closed for a full turn and we may not want to do that or risk the longer distance teleport. I thought the target plot would be Silk, but I don't understand teleport prediction to know for certain the target plot of any teleport.

    I'm now planning to adjust my PPP with the SoD arriving in Babylon at the end of turn 150. This will mean no upgrades for units, unless we can do it while riding our Galley chain in our culture (such units do not move for a full turn which can be used to do the upgrade).

    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  5. bcool

    bcool Deity

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    Re: begs
    The Hammuragawa beg was T139, the Toku beg was T137 I believe (the turns left on the peace treaty will tell you)

    If you run an engineer you should be able to build a catapult in 1 turn after the mace that will be able to catch up on the galley with the crossbow from CowTown
    Settling Settler 17 on the Island will be a net gain to our economy I believe. It will give a second +2 trade route to each city (as well as increasing our maintenance). I suspect it will be a positive outcome.


    Also, adopting Vassalage might be worth more to us then Bureaucracy. Are 10? free units * inflation > +50% commerce +50% hammers in Delhi... maybe not. I thought it might be even if there are few units that would benefit from Vassalage.
    Genghis finally has a bit of gold to trade for resources this turn, he had 0 for awhile after I cancelled most of our trades with him. I don't see any problem renewing these trades.

    Also I think we can renew trade for +1 gold with several AI. I don't think we will be needed resources to get more diplo bonuses with anyone in the next 10 turns.

    I rather get the units to Babylon on T150, but if you are sure of the teleport to cyrusgawa's lands with the DoW then I'm okay with delaying the stack if it helps in a significant way.
    argos can be disbanded. I would move traveler up the coast hopping from our culture to the next patch of our culture. He might be needed to accelerate a missionary's movement.

    Can traveler be used to get a spy to Bulawaya before T156? that would be a good way to use him if so.
    could also pick up a catapult from Delhi after its first macemen
    ok, he could be used once we get OB with Genghisgawa, but probably not worth the gold.
    settle him, he gets us another +2 trade route with all of our cities.
    I would send Eiffel home and build farms or chop forests. He is useless up by Settler 16 because we will not be settling Settler 16 for 10+ turns.

    Island worker should build sheep pasture for new Island city, then farms perhaps. cottages won't grow in time to be useful, but a few more population might help.
    I think we should be ready in a city to replace missionary on George Patton the next turn, use whip OF in DeerGold, send replacement missionary with SoD
    we have OB with Hastegawa and she is still at war with Liz, so we will be able reopen them after the Moses trick. Spy 5 can come back and hang out in LizTown (decent chance we can steal astronomy from Liz)


    Can the spy make to Bulawayo by T156? I wouldn't bother sending him if he can't make it by the time our stack is expected. I would send him to LizTown. We could easily steal Astronomy from her or paper/education/philosophy
    After engineering, I want slider used first to get espionage on Shaka for his religious conversion
    then I want to see what Liz is researching. If she is researching astronomy set up to steal it from her.

    Research Astronomy only if Liz is not going for it herself.
    this is the election isn't it?
    okay I see you have espionage here. I think passive espionage should go to Shaka now, then some slider espionage on him until we can afford the expected cost of converting him with a 50% stationary spy. Then espionage using the slider should go to Liz until we can see her research, then we should decide what to research or if we should just go heavy espionage to steal astronomy from her for example.
     
  6. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    The AI Team has been in war preparation mode for a long time and still is and we do not know who their target is. It could be us. The Moses city makes a juicy target in my opinion.

    Let's ignore the method of getting Open Borders; I realize now that either method will get it at about the same time. The AI Team being in on the Holy War allows us to also accumulate +1 Shared War and another +1 8 turns later. More Diplomacy is better, even when not strictly needed and there's no risk. I predict that the AI Team will not have Astronomy significantly before t164, so how does their being war allies hurt us when they can't reach anyone militarily? At least early enough to matter?

    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  7. bcool

    bcool Deity

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    The Team AI entered WHEOOHRN during my turnset and we were the only civilization that was cautious with them at the time(the rest were pleased or better). So I think there is a good chance that we are the target. If this is the case I think it makes sense to gift them the city right away and convert them to being Hindu.

    This does bring them into Hinduism and the holy war with Shaka. Which means we will have to defend the Bulawaya from Shaka after we gift it to the north team AI.
    Conceivably we will be able to negotiate peace between Shaka and the north team AI... theocracy might be enough.

    This is not ideal though. Perhaps we want to build more military and threaten Shaka's SoD in the south if we can so that we will have less to deal with if he counter attacks. I'm not sure there is much military that we can muster and threaten Shaka with in time.

    Hopefully Shaka will have Hammuragawa or Cyrusgawa units to keep him busy (a bit wishful thinking here)
     
  8. bcool

    bcool Deity

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    Units built in PigsGems and DeerGold could delay their completion to T146 and thus benefit from the switch to theocracy and/or vassalage.
     
  9. bcool

    bcool Deity

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    The alternative missionary plan is appealing but the missionary would take at least 3 turns to reach SBB so it would be there by T158. I think it is quite conceivable we could steal astronomy from liz before that. So I prefer sending the missionary up through Shaka to get to SBB before the DoW with him.

    Patton can not reach the city that Moses hopes to found until T147. I would like to found the city, spread hinduism and gift it to the Incan Gawa all on the same turn. I would hate to see our plans destroyed by the team AI DoW on T147, or to see the borders pop T146-7 if we delayed Moses another turn for the missionary on Patton.

    So I think mabrahams plan to use a missionary on Patton for SBB is the way to go, but in this scenario the existing missionary on the boat just goes north and waits for OB with Genghisgawa.

    Teleport Missionary 9 together with the Moses stack across
    Missionary 10 goes with SoD headed to Shaka
    Missionary 11 (built after missionary 9 does his job) joins SoD
     
  10. mabraham

    mabraham Deity

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    I think this is best - hopefully STW sees it before his work on PPP #2 advances too far.

    I'll be around to give feedback on it when it arrives.
     
  11. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    Oops, I thought George Patton still had movement left.

    Ok, changes to PPP Draft #2 done, except Missionary built in PigsGems, but Missionary still gets to Babylon by t150 easily.

    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  12. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    t143 - t153 PPP: Draft #2

    Changes from Draft #1 are in this DarkRed font.

    Cities (F1):

    Delhi (hires Engineer):

    t143-t144: builds Macemen organically in 2t
    t145: builds Catapult
    t146-t153: builds Wealth

    I'm sure we need the Wealth to complete Engineering in 3t, so the following is safer:

    t143: start Macemen organically
    t144: builds Wealth
    t145: complete Macemen organically
    t146-t153: builds Wealth

    Deergold City:

    t143: starts Crossbowman
    t144: builds Wealth
    t145: completes Crossbowman
    t146-t147: starts Spy using OF from CB build
    t148-t153: builds Wealth

    SheepTown:

    t143-t153: builds Wealth

    CowTown:

    t143-t144: builds/whips Crossbowman
    t145-t153: builds Wealth

    PigsGem:

    t143: starts Catapult[/COLOR]
    t144: builds Wealth
    t145: completes Catapult
    t146-t147: start/whip Hindu Missionary
    t148-t153: builds Wealth

    It may be safer to just build Wealth t143-146; I'm afraid to cut it too close; we need Engineering on t146 to keep our SoD time table; its that close!

    Crabsville:

    t143-t153: builds Wealth

    Island:

    t143-t153: builds Wealth

    Hamsville:

    t143: starts Catapult[/COLOR]
    t144: builds Wealth
    t145: completes Catapult
    t146-t153: builds Wealth

    FishTown:

    t143-t153: builds Wealth

    Shaka Bacon Bit:

    t143-t153: builds Galley

    LizTown:

    t143-t153: builds Wealth

    Financial (F2) - Currently:

    Unit Cost: 28
    Unit Supply: 9
    City Maintenance: 63
    Civic Upkeep: 45
    Inflation: 23
    Total Expenses: 168

    We will be adding 5 units in 2t, so Unit Cost will increase by 5 to 33. Our SoD will leave our culture by about t148-149 and its 21 units will cost us 10-11 more Unit Supply, increasing from 9 to 19-20. We plan to regrow citizens whipped in 2t, so City Maintenance and Civic Upkeep should stay about the same, ignoring Civics changes.

    Civics (F3):

    Switch to Caste System (low Commerce citizens -> Merchants) and Theocracy (+2 XP) in t145. Vassalage doesn't provide an extra promotion and its 10 Wpt savings doesn't match +15 Cpt and 11.5 Hpt of Bureaucracy.

    Foreign (F4):

    All Civs except Mansagawa, Huayanagawa, Cyrusgawa, Shakagawa and Genghigawa are involved in a Holy War against Elizagawa.

    Genghigawa is at war with Tokugawa.

    We will perform small low probababity begs from Hammuragawa (when was last beg), Mansagawa (10-20W) and Huayanagawa (20W) turn 143 or 144, so the Peace Treaty ends before our proposed t145 Holy War vote.

    Resource Trades: Will trade extra resources for best Wpt. Will not cancel trades until we get +2 sharing resources bonus, keep one trade to prevent Diplomacy decay.

    None of the x-gawas have adopted Mercantilism

    None of the x-gawas have Engineering yet. Mansagawa and Huayanagawa do not yet have Theology. Hammuragawa will trade Aesthetics and Horseback Riding.

    Military (F5):

    All military units (5 Macemen, 2 Crossbowmen, 3 Spearmen -> Pikemen, 1 Swordsman, 3 Axemen and 7 Catapults) in our main cultural area (including those built in 2t) will immediately move to Babylon with ETA of t150 or t151.

    2 Axemen at 1S+2W of Thebes will await the arrival of Moses for the Moses Teleport Maneuver in t146.

    All military units near Akhataten, except 2 XP Swordsman and 2 XP Axeman, will wait in Satsuma until the Moses Teleport Maneuver. If it fails, these units will capture Akhetaten as a Hindu city gift to Huayanagawa.

    2 XP Swordsman and 2 XP Axeman will move to recapture GhostTown and Hammsville respectively (arriving no later than t152, capturing t154 unopposed).

    Alternative: Rather than use 2 XP Swordsman and 2 XP Axeman above, just build a couple Archers; use one for Deergold City MP; GhostTown and Hammsville should be undefended.

    Caravels:

    George Patton and loaded Hindu Missionary wait for open border with Genghisgawa and Hindu Missionary moves to Shaka Bacon Bit.

    Traveler?

    Trireme Argos disbands!

    2 Galleys form Galley chain between PigsGems and Nippur for laggard Crossbowman built t145 in CowTown and Maceman or Catpult built t146 in Delhi.

    Scout: disbands.

    Settlers:

    Settler 16 will remain in position (possibly the only access to Elizagawa for military victories) until just before trying the Galley teleport.

    Moses moves to 1-S+2-E of Thebes, teleports to 7-E of Thebes and settles there t146.

    Settler 17 will found City to provide +2 Cpt in every city.

    Workers:

    Fritz: moves to Shaka Bacon Bit to build Grassland Mine and chop Forest and possibly build Fort 1-SE of Shaka Bacon Bit as Galley canal teleoprt launch pad.

    Karl: Shadows Shakagawa's SoD until the DoW.

    Eiffel: Moves home to build farms, chop forests, etc.

    Hoover: builds Road 1-N of FishTown, builds Grassland Hill Mine 1-NW of FishTown.

    Faraday: builds Banana Planatation, 2 Grassland Hill Mines near Crabsville.

    Island Worker: builds sheep Pasture and four Farms.

    Hindu Missionaries:

    One aboard George Patton, see Caravel George Patton above.

    9 attaches to Moses for teleport.

    10 follows and attaches to SoD.

    New (PigsGems) 11 follows and attaches to SoD. Gets to Babylon by t150 easily.

    Spies:

    1 explores GenghisGawa's unrevealed Culture.

    5 moves to LizTown and waits.

    7 waits in GhostTown until needed to convert Shakagawa to Hinduism just before the DoW (priority 1).

    8 moves to Bulawayo as primary Spy for Support City Revolt mission t164 or earlier (Spy arrives on t152).

    4 moves to Bulawayo as secondary Spy for Support City Revolt mission t164 or earlier (Spy arrives on t152).

    Technolgy (F6):

    Complete Engineering in 3t (t146) via turns of 00% Research, 100% Research and 80% Research.

    Next: Paper -> Education? or Astronomy?

    Religion (F7):

    Shaka Bacon bit and Island are only cities lacking Hinduism.

    Victory Conditions (F8):

    RL DV ASAP:

    Gandhi: 96
    Hatsegawa: 9
    Cyrusgawa: 8
    Tokugawa: 7
    Hammuragawa: 3 (Will vote for us)
    Shakagawa: 1
    Genghisgawa: 1
    Mansagawa: none
    Huayanagawa: none
    Elizagawa: none

    Ratio is already 96/125 = we exceed 75% by a few percent. After spreading Hinduism to Mansagawa, Huayanagawa, and Elizagawa we should be well under 75%, not including the planned whips in 2t.

    Resolutions:

    t145: The Apostolic Palace Resident Election

    t155: Declare war on the infidels (Shakagawa).

    t165: RL DV.

    Corporation (Shift-F7): Coporation not completed yet by any Civ.

    Espionage (CRTL-E):

    t143-t146: 4 Ept -> Shakagawa

    t146-t153: 100% Commerce -> Espionage (100% Wealth on turns when not possible); All Espionage -> Elizagawa until see see her Research goal, then switch to Shakagawa until we have enough for "Switch to Hinduism" and Bulwayo "Support City Revolt" (expensive < 800E base) missions; switch back to Elizagawa for stealing Technologies like Astronomy.


    Please let me know of any corrections or additions. Since this is the second draft of the PPP, there should be fewer isssues with it, but please speak your mind about it anyway.

    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  13. bcool

    bcool Deity

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    A spy in Hammsville gifted to Shaka would have a significant discount compared to a spy doing the Hindu conversion in GhostTown.

    In Hammsville the spies would a bit closer and have a 50% culural discount.

    So in Hammsville the mission to convert to Hinduism would be about...
    600 * 0.5 cultural * 0.5 spy * 0.6 religion * 0.85 (spending) * 1.15 (?) distance

    or about 87 espionage

    Might make sense to take the spy out of GhostTown and just have 2 waiting in Hammsville. Since the mission in GhostTown will be at least twice as expensive in terms of espionage. It is true that the first spy would have a higher mission failure rate, but that is okay I think. A 70% chance then a 90%+ chance is good enough for me. And commerce seems to be more precious than spies.
     
  14. mabraham

    mabraham Deity

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    OK I've done some extensive checking of the teleport mechanics.

    Per DanF's post 2721 and my own reading of the code, when deciding where a teleport will go, the initial location determines the location of the "nearest city". The code then loops over all legal tiles (i.e. that are accessible and visible) and chooses the destination tile that minimises

    2*JumpDistance + DistanceToNearestCity

    where both distances are measured with 1 tile orthogonally to the grid and 1.5 along diagonals. The nearest city is *not* calculated separately for each possible destination tile. This last point is critically important for us.

    The Hammurabi->Shaka teleport

    The anchor city will be Hammsville, no question. SBB is far too far away. Assuming a teleport from somewhere W or NW of Akkad and OB with Shaka, valid destinations include 1W of Nobamba and 1W of GhostTown. Any initial location on the Akkad row at or west of Akkad will teleport to 1W of GhostTown (results not shown), so we must start further north.

    1W of GhostTown is 8 JumpDistance from 1NW of Akkad, and is 5.5 from the anchor (Hammsville) = 2*8 + 5.5 = 21.5

    1W of Nobamba is 3 JumpDistance from 1NW of Akkad, and is 14.5 from the anchor (Hammsville) = 2*3 + 14.5 = 20.5

    So the jump from 1NW of Akkad will be to 1W of Nobamba. Great.

    The Shaka->Cyrus teleport

    Here, SBB is the anchor city for a teleport from either
    • the copper tile 1W of Shaka's uMung city (Hammsville is 17.5, SBB is 15), or
    • the tile 1SW of that copper (Hammsville is 17, SBB is 16.5)
    Of course, if we've given away Hammsville to Shaka pre-war then SBB is even more clearly the winner in the anchor city determination - DeerGold is 4.5 further away than Hammsville.

    There are four destination locations worth considering. Tabulated below are their jump and anchor distances for two conceivable starting locations

    From Shaka Copper:
    [pre]Teleport destinations JumpDist AnchorDist TotalDist
    2W1S of Numidian 4.5 11.5 20.5
    1W2S of Numidian 5.0 10.0 20.0
    2N1W of Borsippa 6.5 17.0 30.0
    1W2N of Akkad 7.0 21.5 35.5
    [/pre]

    From 1SW of Shaka Copper:
    [pre]Teleport destinations JumpDist AnchorDist TotalDist
    2W1S of Numidian 6.0 11.5 23.5
    1W2S of Numidian 6.5 10.0 23.0
    2N1W of Borsippa 6.0 17.0 29.0
    1W2N of Akkad 5.5 21.5 32.5
    [/pre]

    From either starting location, 1W2S of Numidian will be the teleport destination location, regardless of our OB status with Hammu. So we can close and reopen with him on the same turn, which will be useful for positioning to re-capture GhostTown and Hammsville ASAP.

    Working backwards, a T154 DOW with movement still remaining on the stack requires that the stack start T154 at least 1N of Nobamba, i.e. that it had movement on T153 after the first teleport. So at the start of T153 the stack must be at least 2N1E of Babylon. So 1-movement units that are still 1 tile short of Babylon at the end of T151 are still in time to join the assault on Bulawayo - which is roughly what STW suggested in http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=11489949&postcount=3459.

    As far as I can see, the details of the T153 Hammsville gift to Shaka and the T154 Shaka flip to Hinduism before the DOW work fine with the above. We'll have to plan for some maces to re-position near GT and Hammsville after we re-open borders T153. If Liz goes to peace with Hammu, this might be a pain?

    Below are screenshots describing my suggested plan
     

    Attached Files:

  15. mabraham

    mabraham Deity

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    PPP draft 2 looks great.

    There's an axe in Shaka culture that should probably scout to Bulawayo and back to uMung and join the stack when the stack arrives.

    IIRC Island worker is still in Island city. If so, it should temporise one turn on a farm 1NW of the new city, en route to the sheep pasture. This starts the pasture at the same time, of course. Then I suggest improving a Gmine north of the sheep, which provides a faster return than working a plain Gfarm.

    Suggest Genghis spy 1 head for Bulawayo. Not sure if he arrives in time, but his scouting might be useful.

    Spy 7 back to Hammsville, which provides cheaper espionage flip to Hinduism, now that we have decided to gift this to Shaka before the war. Hope Shaka doesn't get into economic difficulty!

    Tech choice probably immaterial. We have a few beakers on Paper already, so a few more won't hurt. I can't see us getting Astro any time soon unless we steal it from Liz.

    You can use the espionage display to measure how many EPs we need to see Liz research, and perhaps juggle accordingly. A little extra is OK, because she's doubtless spending on us, too.

    Stopping Criteria:
    Team DOWs us.
    Hammu goes to peace with Liz.
    Shaka DOWs someone
    Shaka closes OB with us
    Someone DOWs us
    Axes near Thebes see Vilcabamba pop its borders (need at least to re-plan the military to take Akhe and still be able to re-take GT and Hammsville on schedule; also re-plan missionaries)
    Moses gift fails somehow

    I'm happy for STW to play at least up to T146-7 once's he's considered and either rejected or included the above. In practice, if all goes to plan by then, we probably want a couple more military units started T145ish, since units arriving Babylon end T151 are in time for the later double-teleport per post 3474.
     
  16. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    Yes, I'm building a Spy in Deergold City that will move to Hammsville. It will get a 40% discount though. Can't get 50% discount in both cities.

    OK, I can leave both Spies in Hammsville, but the second Spy greatly reduces the chance of success for the first Spy.

    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  17. WastinTime

    WastinTime Deity Supporter

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    Great work guys. I've been keeping up on reading the thread, but I have nothing else to add. Good Luck!
     
  18. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    Thanks for the great work on the teleport analysis on post #3474.

    I can make your requested changes to the PPP in the morning (Draft #3). Trying to build more units t145 will delay Engineering another turn which is probably OK, since nearly all units started turn 145 will be whipped turn 146 and ready to move t147 (whereas the deadline to Babylon was end of t150, with mabraham's teleport results, it is now end of t151). Thus delaying Engineering 1t and delaying last call for unit movement to Babylon 1t are both OK with respect to our teleporting and DoW time table.

    Sun Tzu Wu
     
  19. mabraham

    mabraham Deity

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    OK. I presume you know the distances and can work out when new units have to leave to reach the Babylon region in time.
     
  20. Sun Tzu Wu

    Sun Tzu Wu Deity Supporter

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    From Babylon:
    1) On t152, SoD moves to 1-W of Akkad
    2) On t153, SoD moves to 1-NW of Akkad with .7 movement remaining
    3) Still t153, we close (and open) Borders with Hammuragawa, teleporting SoD to 1-W of Nobamba
    4) Still t153, with .7 movement left, SoD moves to 2-N of Nabamba
    5) On t154, SoD moves to 1-SW of Shakagawa's Copper with .7 movement remaining
    6) Still t154, perform DoW of Shakagawa, teleporting SoD to 2-S+1-W of Numidian
    7) Still t154, with Roads on 2-S+1-W and 1-S+2-W of Numidian, move 2-W (without Roads it takes two turns) onto Grassland
    8) On t155, SoD moves onto PH 1-S+2-E of Bulawayo
    9) On t156, SoD moves onto GHF 1-E of Bulawayo
    10) On t157, Spy in Bulawayo performs "Support City Revolt" mission (2 attempts).
    11) Still t157, SoD bombards?/barrages/captures Bulawayo.

    Sun Tzu Wu
     

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