SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

[Revent]

Here is a new test game.

No, I don't think there is any minimum number of forests and/or resources. I do know the map script has minimums for food/hammers/commerce in the BFC (though it may not be minimums for each type, but rather a minimum total), which generally means you'll get resources and/or floodplains, and that it's next to impossible to get a really bad site.

What is the minimum total though for resources? I BELIEVE it was 4, but I might be wrong.

I'm trying to work out some stuff. Does a floodplain count as a resource site?Only issue is, there can be no certainty with EXP AI. We will not know if an EXP AI is on the map by probability alone and the information we can determine about AI is vague at best. However, any interoperation based on fact may be helpful.

Oh and you forgot river access as well.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Sorry, I don't know of any such guides and a quick search didn't turn up anything.

One thing you could do to empirically test is worldbuilder a non-expansionist AI so they have all forests in their BFC, and compare that to an expansionist AI that has zero forests available. You could do the same with all floodplains setups too.

 

[Revent]

That is what I am currently doing.

I've currently deduced the health and sickness of the rival worst. That was a pretty tricky one to figure.
To note that I may be completely wrong with this and there may be another solution that gets us to a better answer than 8 health and 3 sickness. The formula I used to determine the health and sickness of the city was 100x/(x+n)=72 where 72 has been rounded down, x is the health and n is the sickness. Feel free to try a combination that will get to 72 rounded down!

That comes at 6(+2 for diff) health and 2 (+1 from pop) sickness! Meaning 6-8 floodplains in the BFC.
6 health can be obtained via many ways.
Exp + Fresh Water + 4-5 forests
Exp + 8-9 forests
Fresh Water + 8-9 forests
12-13 forests

So in this case, it is LIKELY that the AI will be EXP. 12-13 forests along with 6-8 flood plains is unlikely bearing in mind that all starts NORMALLY have at least three resources. I think from these options that I listed, the most feasible and likely are Exp with fresh water and 4-5 forests or fresh water with 8-9 forests. With 6-8 floodplains, it is very likely that the AI has river access. Floodplains and forests don't generally go together on maps after all which is why I think Exp is a safe guess.

With the rival best, with 91 expectancy, there are a lot of options as well, for the sake of simplicity, I will be assuming 2 or less floodplains as these combinations become more surreal and difficult to come up with and are very very unlikely

91 expectancy means 9 (+2) health with 1 sickness from pop.
18-19 forests
Fresh water + 14-15 forests
Exp + 14-15 forests
Exp + Fresh Water + 10-11 forests.

With this, it is also likely the AI is expansive. Out of the four options above, 18-19 forests is very unlikely. This leaves us with three (relatively reasonable) options and from them, two include Exp which I think is a reasonable guess.


As for averages, those will take a lot more time than what I've spent on this
Hopefully tomorrow after work because I have Wednesday off

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Does it take into account the entire BFC, or does it only account for the portion that is currently in your cultural borders? In other words, can you see a change in health when borders pop the first time?

 

[Revent]

Forests and floodplains don't need to be in our cultures borders to provide the health effect. They only need to be in the BFC. This takes into account the entire BFC. Alas, no change in health at the border pop.

However, a border pop does tell us about the kind of land an AI has. For example, if an AI in the inner ring has it's best tile being a grassland forest which is being worked, at the border pop, it will most likely switch over to a food tile which SHOULD be in the outer ring. That would bring down its production and increase the food in demographics.


Edit: There are FAR too many variables when it comes to working out the likely healths of the AI! I don't think it is something I will be able to do! However, the life expectancy of each AI (excluding the largest and smallest) add up to 347, giving an average of 86.75. This is higher than the overall average of the total six AI (which is lowered by that 72) so it is safe to assume that the AI's are fairly healthy and should be notably higher than 72.

 

[Revent]

Regarding Turn 5 Border Pops

Three AI are fully landlocked. All tiles in the BFC are land tiles.
One AI has a total of two water tiles in the inner ring and four water tiles in the outer ring.
The remaining two AI cannot be determined for sure. However, I have limited it down to one of two options:
One AI has a lone tile lake in the inner ring (very well possible on a hemispheres map) and one AI has 4 water tiles in total with one in the inner ring and three in the outer.
One AI has three water tiles in the BFC whilst the other has two water tiles in the BFC.

Both are statistically speaking equally likely, so to be safe, it is best to assume we have three coastal AI rather than two which is what the first option suggests.


All AI except for one are working a three foods tile at the border pop. That means that the remaining AI is either working a plains cow (I think 2F1H) or a forested grassland tile.

That's about all I can figure off the top of my head now


Edit: Chris, would it be possible for me to get a look at the victory screen conditions anytime after you met Brennus (but before he gets his third border pop)? I think the turn you meet him should do the trick I SHOULD be able to work out if he is coastal or not or if he has any water tiles in the BFC using the screen! Thanks!

 

[Deckhand]

...

We are at 113% espionage vs. Brennus, which means he has met someone else. We can see Brennus' graphs.

Spoiler :

[/SPOILER]

Doesn't the 113% reflect our cost? So, Brennus is putting all his espionage against us and has done so for one more turn than us?

Spoiler :

He finds us, IBT spends espionage on us, we have our turn and are one turn of spending behind

So, I think we and Brennus are alone on our mini continent. No tech trading.

Spoiler :

Or, hopefully, there is a lot of space between Brennus and AI to the south.

My first thought for the NW city was one south, to get the flood plain and plains hill. (but iT misses the deer)

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Being alone with Brennus wouldn't be a bad thing. Can someone confirm Deckhand's interpretation?

1S picks up the incense too, which isn't bad. I'd like to see some more/alternate dotmaps!

 

[neilmeister]

OK, just catching up on the 3 pages added overnight.

First reactions:
- I am really glad we did not SIP, I assumed Copper would be in the BFC.
- The land is very brown, but full of resources
- Blue city will be very nice commerce city
- Red to the north is the GP farm

Where does the settler go?
- Green to the south has Clams & 2 grass hills. So it will be productive even without AH or IW. It has the added benefit of being in the direction of Brennus.
- Red to the north will make a great GP farm (3 great food resources and enough hills to build NE)
- Blue will be a great long term commerce city, best candidate so far for future cap.
- Red to the west looks very nice and could be production or commerce or a hybrid.

IMO, the best candidates are Red to the north & Green to the south.
Both have a seafood resource and several hills and will therefore be reasonably productive early on.

I think I am leaning towards Green, but I will test the scenarios out and post some results

edit: Great analysis Revent!
@ dotmaps, i think green and red (north) are ideal and cannot be improved upon. Blue is looking good for now and we need more info regarding red (west)

edit: oh and another thing. Brennus is only beaten by DeGaulle in his ability to make everyone hate him. So it is a terrible 'buddy' to have next door and share a religion with.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

What more info do we need for red-west? Either where I proposed it or 1S or 1SW to get incense/fp/hills, right? I agree it might be better south of my proposed location, but don't see that there's any more information to be gathered to decide its placement.

 

[neilmeister]

I like where it is now, much better getting the deer than not.

What might make a difference is the unknown green area. For instance, we might prefer a city getting Fish & Wine and another to get deer/sheep.

Incense in the BFC is not desirable IMO, it is a sucky tile.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Fish and Wine can't be in the same city. That city center would be under water. Either way, we're agreed it's not the right spot for our second city.

 

[neilmeister]

Hehe, well spotted.

 

[neilmeister]

Maple Sporks didn't settle on turn 0 either.


edit: what about techs? We are surrounded by Hunting & AH reources.

What if we went Hunting->AH first, or maybe skip Hunting and go straight for AH. The deer at each site is the worst resource, so there is no hurry to improve them.

If we settle Green to the south, we should probably press on with sailing, but if we settle Red to the north, I think a switch to AH would be a good idea.
Red with Pigs & coastal Fish and several PH's, will be a production monster quite early.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Oh, to be a fly on the wall... but then I wouldn't be able to play. Sigh.

 

[neilmeister]

Oh, to be a fly on the wall... but then I wouldn't be able to play. Sigh.

Thats what I struggled with.

It is fun following the teams, and even better when you occasionally get to mock them (I'm right, aren't I kcd?), but then you don't get to play.

 

[neilmeister]

This is what I am currently testing:

1- Research AH->Sailing. Settle Red north. After settler, build WB until grow to pop 4, then switch to another settler. Worker roads/chops. City 2 build WB, then lighthouse...

2- Research Sailing->AH. Settle Green south. After settler, build WB until finished, then build settler. City 2 builds Warrior, then lighthouse....


edit: Red north is a monster. I will refine my best micro on it and publish the results in the spreadsheets..... but I am telling you now that Red north will be hard to beat.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

I am comfortable with that. I like monsters. Will your city 3 go south to green or west to blue?

We have the significant problem that we want to steal Iron Working by espionage, yet we need it for green south. What shall we do about that?

 

[Trystero]

We have the significant problem that we want to steal Iron Working by espionage, yet we need it for green south. What shall we do about that?

That is in addition to the fact that we would probably have to research Alphabet much earlier than we normally would. Green does have the fish clams tile which would let us grow the city prior to IW. We need to scout Brennus' location to see how much we need to prioritize that site. The AI usually doesn't cross jungle to settle early in the game.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

I think you mean clams - it has clams + 2 grass hills. Still, 3 tiles isn't a lot to base an early city on.