[BTS] SGOTM 25 - Home Slices

[Kaitzilla]

The map was really great.

USA overseas, barbs pressuring pop score, England with Redcoats and colony threat, started with Great Prophet so AP fast was an option.
Bomber was a hero, scouting open borders, pumping up power for rapid Cease Fires, crashing border defenses, crippling stacks, scouting war zones.

Our capital going without improvements could argue for early Hagia Sophia.
But the shrine and +4 points felt so right at the time.

We twisted round and round over what the right path was.
It was really fun.
I'd like to unfog the whole map once everything is over, get a good look around.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Hurray!

Killing Korea got England to capitulate.

Normally distant island civs are hard to capitulate.

That is because double land, 40 war success, and a high power rating aren't enough.

You also have to have a city I think on their landmass.
Or they have to have a city on yours.

This is a pain because Deity AI usually have 4 cities by the time you meet them, so you have to send a settler to their crowded island or conquer one of their island cities.

I think that is right.

Ok, I tested this and it is not true.

Island civs on the other side of the map capitulated just fine after being nuked 4 times.
False alarm!

 

[Deckhand]

Congrats.
Great game.

Yes, this might be the last SGOTM ever with participation going down like it is.
Everyone is moving on to newer things.

Hope not.
We have the next one ready to announce soon.

 

[WastinTime]

I'd like to unfog the whole map once everything is over, get a good look around.

if you load up our T73 and press enter you can see the replay and get an overview.

crippling stacks

stacks? what was the biggest 'stack', 3?

Map was very fun. Deity save was by far the easiest (due to bomber, and Kremlin!). Without bomber, conquest would have been so slow to start and England probably would have made a colony.

This team was one of my favorite. I don't recall ever having 4 big contributors (& Mitchum). I wasn't sure I was going to get to play more then 10 turns.

@bbp: really enjoyed playing with you/meeting you. A very good addition to the team! People are giving me and Kait credit for bringing it home, but you were quite the workhorse during the first half of the game. Hope to see you next SG.
@Kait & LC : as usual, my two favorite players. Always great support for other's turnsets. Each put in more work than bbp and I.

We have the next one ready to announce soon.

Sweet! Which Home Slices are returning?

 

[LowtherCastle]

AWESOME!!!! Well done everyone. So glad you were able to bring this home, Kait and WT! I've been rocking and rolling in RL so we were doomed without you two. That deadline sure came up fast. Bbp, it was GREAT having you back. You were a fantastic addition. Four is so much better than three. You especially added your unique perspective. Kaitzilla, first time I've played with you. WOW! You are a POWERHOUSE! Now I understand how you can produce such amazing results in the HOF. I think this was maybe the hardest SG we've ever had, in terms of combining all sorts of factors and having to win in such a short number of turns. It's very easy to screw that up on the first time through and then regret missing opportunities.

Great game, folks!!!

I'm up for another one. Hope it's a bit easier, though.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Not exactly easy deciphering PR's plans but I think they're going to beat us. Oh well...

 

[WastinTime]

Not exactly easy deciphering PR's plans but I think they're going to beat us. Oh well...

Yea, sounds like they're going to take less risks since they know we played beyond their target. That's one thing I don't like about the graphs.

 

[WastinTime]

I'm excited to see what they did. Looks like they're doing what I would expect with spy-culture. (not what we did.) They're talking about 11,000 EPs giving them 71K culture. Maybe they have the OB discount working? or another discount, cus I wouldn't think you'd get 71K for 11K EPs. Maybe I'm reading they're situation wrong. Probably includes seed culture.

I expect they did all 25 wonders, but that's only 4 more than us: 16 points

They're currently having trouble gifting cities and getting capitulations. Sounds like they'll end with several AI alive.

So they maybe finished a 2nd era of tech? Otherwise can't think how they made up the points we have on them in culture. We did 125k. Isn't that like ~35 more points than they would have in culture ministry?

I suppose we just have way over 420 and they're going to just barely get there. They musta played a great game.

 

[WastinTime]

It's a shame the game wasn't to 450+. What would our score have been on T76?

 

[babybluepants]

I assume they are also getting a religious win for +8pts. Together with the extra wonders and our overshooting the target by 26, that should be enough.

 

[WastinTime]

I assume they are also getting a religious win for +8pts. Together with the extra wonders and our overshooting the target by 26, that should be enough.

Yea, I think they are...maybe. And they figured out how to get #1 in imports/exports.

 

[Kaitzilla]

It looks like PR is going for the 8 AP points.

Their game looks very competitive with ours!
I think they built 62 spies vs. our 54

Based off my understanding of power mechanics, they are right at the limit of Soldiers needed to cap England if the game had Player + 2AI.
But, they are talking about vassalizing France? Did France settle 1 city overseas?
Vassaling France would be a bad idea, making England harder to cap.
I think they might be under the impression that civs capitulate if under world's average power, when in fact it is under 1.4 * world's average power (for most civs)
It will be teeth-clenchingly-close unless my understanding is off.

x3 power rating is only good for grabbing Peace Vassals anywhere on the map right?

Also, their spy plans don't appear to have enough cushion in my opinion for what they are planning.
8000 and 45 successful spy missions with open borders japan. (OB means like 2 or 3% detection rate instead of 10% )
But they only have 58? or 62? spies to do it with?
Perhaps they already did a lot of low cost spy missions already, got a shared war open borders with Japan, and now they are going to do the more expensive missions with full -50% wait bonus.

This part I still haven't pieced together.
For 11,477 to pay for 71,892-8000 = 63,892, it would require a ratio of 5.56 per espionage spent, which is much better than the 4.1 ish we were getting.
It requires the -20% Trade Route bonus I think, which I've never actually engineered a way to get 100% of the time.
Oh interesting, their post 1354 talks about this issue.
25 turns of sustained peace, then island city will form trade route with spy city? >_>
Is that the secret sauce I've always been missing all these years?
If they've solved how to get -20% Spy bonus every time, we should carry them on our shoulders!

Maybe they got a Great Spy (extra +3000) on the way to help out their 11,477 pool?

I would be quite stressed out attempting this!
85% successful mission rate always played out like 80% successful mission rate for me.
If I was handed 60 spies, I'd complete right around 45 successful missions.

If they reach 70k plus without using Colonies, that would be a huge achievement!

Did they notice barb population messing with pop score yet?

Also, those 8AP points are a bit stressful, making sure all vassals get 1 tao city and certain cities are whipped down enough.

Why tech Paper?
It is a Medieval tech isn't it?


They appear to have played an amazing game.
Can they bring it together at the end to beat us?


**Edit**
I've seen mentioned a clever city gift trying to get England to be Land Target to make it easier to capitulate.
Never did test to see exactly how much it affected capitulation thresholds.
If done and it works , and their spy luck isn't bad, and all their point assumptions work out, they can beat us by 2 turns I think.

I still can't tell if they are going for AP win or Conquest win.
Need to read their thread more.

 

[WastinTime]

Yes, I saw those same risks when I scanned. They may need some luck with spy success and have to figure out the capitulation puzzle. There is usually a way to make it happen. Like gift a stack of warriors or archers to your vassal and give them feudalism and civil service. They'll upgrade the units and average power jumps.

 

[WastinTime]

It looks like PR is going for the 8 AP points.

yea, we woulda won T72 if they wouldn't have changed the rules mid-game. Hopefully PR will either beat T72 or go past T74.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'm gonna update my assessment.
They are definitely going for conquest win.


Looks like they got capitulation figured out.
Mean old Roosevelt will only talk peace in 2 turns, and England will indeed cap with a lot less power needed if Land Target is activated. (their testing seems to indicate this)

They do seem to either have 20% trade route bonus already, or solid test data they will get it.
Their spy venture seems much more likely to work in that case.

I still can't puzzle out exactly what they are doing.
Gift an 8k culture city to Japan with open borders and try to get 45 successful missions in one go?
That reduces detection losses to the absolute minimum, but I've always felt the 84% or 85% mission success odds was lying to me.
I'd stress over falling a hair short here, because where are more points gonna come from?

Have not seen any chatter on the 100 military points.
Maybe their barbs have less population than ours did?
Or they have already bashed some?
Getting BOTH 100 military points and 8 AP points would be a great achievement!

Hold onto your butts, it's gonna be close

 

[babybluepants]

Why tech Paper?
It is a Medieval tech isn't it?

I'm only just catching up, but it seems they were going to use it to somehow trade maps for TRs, to increase imports/exports rating. Judging by one of Fippy's screenshots, they haven't explored as much of the map as we have, and can't even see England.

elitetroops seems to have found a different way to get top rating in imports/exports, though. Having a vassal with two island cities that don't have a trade connection to any of that vassal's other, but do have a connection to two of the player's cities, including ToA. That, in conjunction with no AIs having OBs with each other.

It sounds to me like they should win comfortably 1t ahead of us.

 

[babybluepants]

This team was one of my favorite. I don't recall ever having 4 big contributors (& Mitchum). I wasn't sure I was going to get to play more then 10 turns.
@bbp: really enjoyed playing with you/meeting you. A very good addition to the team! People are giving me and Kait credit for bringing it home, but you were quite the workhorse during the first half of the game. Hope to see you next SG.

Ditto. I really enjoyed playing with you and Kait for the first time. I've been completely away from Civ4 for almost 5 years, and the game play has changed quite a bit. I barely remember ever giving away a city before. You guys make it seem like an entirely new game now, and the it's really exciting to witness all of your ingenuity. LC was always my favourite teammate, and he hasn't changed.

@Kait: it's a real shame that we had to leave you on your own for a while, during the most complex planning stage. You're a beast!

I'll join the team for the next one, but we'll have to wait and see how my time is over the next few months. I might have to pull a Mitchum...

I thought the scenario was fantastic, though it could have used a few tweaks to make the game play more variable. I wish the economy ministry wasn't so useless on our win timeline. Also, it might have been better to just give something like 1pt per tech, rather than 14pts per era. But that's just nitpicking. It's so hard to balance all of this, and it's impossible to predict how the top teams will play!

 

[WastinTime]

It sure was a fun/complex game, but the more I think about it, the less impressed I am with the ministries. Maybe balancing would have made it great.
Econ ministry was non-existent and military/civil were basically a free 100 each. Diplo was pretty much 50.
Tech could only realistically be 14-42. Wonders. pretty much 80-100. So the whole game was just getting culture to make up the shortages. You had some flexibility on whether you were going short on tech or short on wonders, but meh.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I've calculated our mission success rate for our Spies.

We had 54 mission successes out of 64 tries.

That is 84.3% success rate , a lot higher than I thought!

The oodles of deaths were from detection rounds and spies completing missions while dying in the proccess.

Applying this success rate to PR's plan with 60 Spies gives 2 deaths from Open Borders, then 58*.843=48.8 mission successes.
They only need 45.

Since they probably made a bit more than 60 spies, I'm changing to agreeing their plan will work if they have enough espionage points and -20% trade route bonus.

I wish I could see their world population %.
If it is higher than 51% on T72, and they grab 100 points from demo screen, we are beaten.

 

[Kaitzilla]

AWESOME!!!! Well done everyone. So glad you were able to bring this home, Kait and WT! I've been rocking and rolling in RL so we were doomed without you two. That deadline sure came up fast. Bbp, it was GREAT having you back. You were a fantastic addition. Four is so much better than three. You especially added your unique perspective. Kaitzilla, first time I've played with you. WOW! You are a POWERHOUSE! Now I understand how you can produce such amazing results in the HOF. I think this was maybe the hardest SG we've ever had, in terms of combining all sorts of factors and having to win in such a short number of turns. It's very easy to screw that up on the first time through and then regret missing opportunities.

Great game, folks!!!

I'm up for another one. Hope it's a bit easier, though.

1 more game with you guys would be great.