YossarianLives
Deity
Spreadsheet updated, analysis/commentary later. Two quick notes: Rival Worst Land is 20,000, so everyone except Spanish Poly have that one-tile lake in the BFC; and Power went up by 2000!
Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking
- Thread starter YossarianLives
- Start date
YossarianLives
Deity
As usual, let’s start with what we know for sure. 7 of 8 rivals have 20 land tiles in their BFC, with a 1-tile lake adjacent to the capital. Spanish Poly, who settled on T0, have 21 land tiles in their BFC, and no water tiles.
In the Soldiers category, we know that overall Power went up by 2000 points (Average went up by 250, and 250*8 = 2000). This must have been a warrior build, but we don’t know who built it. It could not have been Poly or RB because Rival Best did not increase. We’ve been able to keep a close eye on which tiles Civfr have been working (FP T0-T2, Deer T3-T5), and it appears they have not yet produced enough hammers to complete a warrior. Also, since Civfr did not grow this turn, they are almost certainly building a worker.
So let’s look at everyone else. Everything from this point on is pure speculation, but I will rule out the Exp teams immediately (Civforum.de & Uciv), since their trait screams Worker First. That leaves WPC, Spanish Poly, and CivPlayers. The math seems to fit best if a team that settled on T1 has been building the warrior for 5 turns with 3 hammers per turn, so that means Spanish Poly is out. As for motivation, there are a couple things that might make a team want to start with a warrior, instead of the more obvious worker. The most logical would be going for a religion, and therefore not having the techs necessary for a worker to improve anything. Or maybe one of the teams that started with a scout is concerned about their undefended capital. This fits CivPlayers pretty well, since they start with a Scout and Myst. On the spreadsheet, I’m going to pencil them in for a warrior, but we’ll know for sure when a religion is founded or someone grows before anyone else (on T11-T13 if they don't go worker or settler next, depending on what tiles are worked from this point forward).
Edit: One other minor thing to mention, is that Rival Average Mfg went up from 2 to 3. This corresponds with all the teams that settled on T1 getting their border pops. This could be the Deer tile coming into play for all of them, increasing average Mfg without decreasing average food.
In the Soldiers category, we know that overall Power went up by 2000 points (Average went up by 250, and 250*8 = 2000). This must have been a warrior build, but we don’t know who built it. It could not have been Poly or RB because Rival Best did not increase. We’ve been able to keep a close eye on which tiles Civfr have been working (FP T0-T2, Deer T3-T5), and it appears they have not yet produced enough hammers to complete a warrior. Also, since Civfr did not grow this turn, they are almost certainly building a worker.
So let’s look at everyone else. Everything from this point on is pure speculation, but I will rule out the Exp teams immediately (Civforum.de & Uciv), since their trait screams Worker First. That leaves WPC, Spanish Poly, and CivPlayers. The math seems to fit best if a team that settled on T1 has been building the warrior for 5 turns with 3 hammers per turn, so that means Spanish Poly is out. As for motivation, there are a couple things that might make a team want to start with a warrior, instead of the more obvious worker. The most logical would be going for a religion, and therefore not having the techs necessary for a worker to improve anything. Or maybe one of the teams that started with a scout is concerned about their undefended capital. This fits CivPlayers pretty well, since they start with a Scout and Myst. On the spreadsheet, I’m going to pencil them in for a warrior, but we’ll know for sure when a religion is founded or someone grows before anyone else (on T11-T13 if they don't go worker or settler next, depending on what tiles are worked from this point forward).
Edit: One other minor thing to mention, is that Rival Average Mfg went up from 2 to 3. This corresponds with all the teams that settled on T1 getting their border pops. This could be the Deer tile coming into play for all of them, increasing average Mfg without decreasing average food.
YossarianLives
Deity
Spreadsheet is updated, but nothing to report. There were no changes in the demos between T6 & T7. 
The warrior build is still intriguing to me. If anyone has any ideas why someone would pump out a warrior at this point, I'm all ears.
The warrior build is still intriguing to me. If anyone has any ideas why someone would pump out a warrior at this point, I'm all ears.
I think your theory about the early religion makes the most sense for the explanation of that warrior. And I agree that it makes the most sense that CivPlayers would go for it. Starting with Hunting and Mysticism, worker first would leave them stuck waiting for something to build unless they do have a deer forest in their borders. If they committed to an early religion, going warrior first makes sense.
The other idea that might make sense is someone going for AH first. I haven't run the numbers on it, but I wonder if with any of these starts, a team would conclude that they could get a warrior and a worker out before AH finished. (or close to it) Again the only reason to go warrior first would be if the worker was left with nothing to do if it finished early, the only reasonable set of techs that would lead to that situation are again Hunting and Mysticism. Otherwise the worker would have something worthwhile to do and would be worth finishing first. Again that points to CivPlayers. Or maybe Universe Civilization, I'd be surprised to see an expansive civ not go worker first though.
I expect that the correct answer is that the team who built the warrior is going for a religion, but if we don't see a religion founded, maybe it's someone looking for horses?
The other idea that might make sense is someone going for AH first. I haven't run the numbers on it, but I wonder if with any of these starts, a team would conclude that they could get a warrior and a worker out before AH finished. (or close to it) Again the only reason to go warrior first would be if the worker was left with nothing to do if it finished early, the only reasonable set of techs that would lead to that situation are again Hunting and Mysticism. Otherwise the worker would have something worthwhile to do and would be worth finishing first. Again that points to CivPlayers. Or maybe Universe Civilization, I'd be surprised to see an expansive civ not go worker first though.
I expect that the correct answer is that the team who built the warrior is going for a religion, but if we don't see a religion founded, maybe it's someone looking for horses?
YossarianLives
Deity
Thanks for the input grant. That makes a lot of sense about AH.
The spreadsheets updated, and we have another 2k power increase! At this point you guys know the drill. Couldnt be RB or Poly because Rival Best didnt go up, couldnt be Civfr because were tracking their tiles worked, and they wouldve grown by now if they werent building a worker. Ruling out Exp teams because thats just too
That leaves us with WPC, Spanish Poly and CivPlayers. Theres no way one team could have built both warriors, so now were looking at 2 out of 3. We just need to guess whos NOT building a warrior!
What really throws me off is the lack of a pop growth. You can time it to get both a pop and a warrior in 8 turns if you can produce +3 food and 2 hammers. Heres what Im guessing happened. WPC settled on their equivalent of our PH on T1, and started building a warrior while working a 3 food tile (equivalent to our corn or banana). That puts them on track with the food and hammers to grow and finish their worker on T9. Then their borders pop on T6, opening up access to their Deer, letting them work an extra hammer for two turns. This pushes the warrior up one turn. If this is correct, then they should grow next turn, and presumably switch to a worker. Perhaps they are researching AH as grant2004 suggested.
So my guess is that the two warriors are from CivPlayers (T6) and WePlayCiv (T8). But again, this is all pure speculation, based on some unproven and sometimes contradictory assumptions (if WPC really has wet corn, why on earth would they be teching AH before Agri???)
The spreadsheets updated, and we have another 2k power increase! At this point you guys know the drill. Couldnt be RB or Poly because Rival Best didnt go up, couldnt be Civfr because were tracking their tiles worked, and they wouldve grown by now if they werent building a worker. Ruling out Exp teams because thats just too
That leaves us with WPC, Spanish Poly and CivPlayers. Theres no way one team could have built both warriors, so now were looking at 2 out of 3. We just need to guess whos NOT building a warrior!
What really throws me off is the lack of a pop growth. You can time it to get both a pop and a warrior in 8 turns if you can produce +3 food and 2 hammers. Heres what Im guessing happened. WPC settled on their equivalent of our PH on T1, and started building a warrior while working a 3 food tile (equivalent to our corn or banana). That puts them on track with the food and hammers to grow and finish their worker on T9. Then their borders pop on T6, opening up access to their Deer, letting them work an extra hammer for two turns. This pushes the warrior up one turn. If this is correct, then they should grow next turn, and presumably switch to a worker. Perhaps they are researching AH as grant2004 suggested.
So my guess is that the two warriors are from CivPlayers (T6) and WePlayCiv (T8). But again, this is all pure speculation, based on some unproven and sometimes contradictory assumptions (if WPC really has wet corn, why on earth would they be teching AH before Agri???)
2metraninja
Defender of Nabaxica
Although I have nothing constructive to add to the discussion, I wanted to pop in and say your work is highly appreciated.
Another warrior? That's strange... I would've bet on both WPC and Spanish Poly to build a worker first. They both started with agriculture and should therefore have something very worthwhile to do with their worker. I doubt that the map has some teams with a starting agriculture resource and some without.
Spanish Poly is not doing an AH first strategy, if they were the rival best GDP would be a minimum of 20 because of their pre-req bonus. It's still possible that WPC is doing AH first, if they are then they have a GDP of 18. I just ran a quick hot seat to check how the game rounds the rival average GDP. With 2 civs at 18 GDP (1 cultural civ and WPC?) and 6 at 16 the average GDP is 16.5, but that doesn't round up to 17, so it would display as 16 if one civ were going for AH, or if zero are.
The best I can say about this new warrior is that it doesn't seem optimal.
Spanish Poly is not doing an AH first strategy, if they were the rival best GDP would be a minimum of 20 because of their pre-req bonus. It's still possible that WPC is doing AH first, if they are then they have a GDP of 18. I just ran a quick hot seat to check how the game rounds the rival average GDP. With 2 civs at 18 GDP (1 cultural civ and WPC?) and 6 at 16 the average GDP is 16.5, but that doesn't round up to 17, so it would display as 16 if one civ were going for AH, or if zero are.
The best I can say about this new warrior is that it doesn't seem optimal.
YossarianLives
Deity
Hi 2metra, it's great to see that you're following along here. I know a lot of this info is pretty insignificant in the greater scheme of things, but I'm having fun, so I'll keep right on doing it! We'll get to the good stuff soon as teams start finishing techs, growing, and planting new cities.
I'd say this is a very accurate assessment! We'll continue keeping an eye on these power increases, but it's nothing that should threaten us so far, and it just keeps setting these teams further back if they're not building a worker to improve their resources. Good news for us, I think.
2metraninja
Defender of Nabaxica
Now think about it, what is the chance that maybe some teams have pigs instead of corn? Does it then makes more sense if they build warrior first?
I'm following along too, and don't have anything to add in terms of analysis. But I'll be quite happy to throw out speculations. 
Did any of the teams seem especially worried about barbs in the planning discussion? A team who are paranoid about defenses might build a warrior first.
Another possibility is a team which wants to grow before worker, like we were talking about growing before settler. Maybe the sequence warrior, worker finishes both units slightly faster than worker, warrior? If the total food/hammer/gold of working two tiles while the worker builds is higher than working one improved tile while the warrior builds, this could be optimal play. Though I don't really know for sure.
Did any of the teams seem especially worried about barbs in the planning discussion? A team who are paranoid about defenses might build a warrior first.
Another possibility is a team which wants to grow before worker, like we were talking about growing before settler. Maybe the sequence warrior, worker finishes both units slightly faster than worker, warrior? If the total food/hammer/gold of working two tiles while the worker builds is higher than working one improved tile while the warrior builds, this could be optimal play. Though I don't really know for sure.
talonschild
Drive-By NESer
Lastly, if any team is used to playing ridiculous barbarian levels, the warrior first might just be a matter of habit.
YossarianLives
Deity
Excellent points, and lots of possibilities I hadn't thought of. Thanks for all the input!
YossarianLives
Deity
Wow!!! Turn has flipped and there are score increases all over the place. I'm at work now so don't have lots of time, but here's a quick rundown:
WPC 37, score increase of 8, equals tech + 1 pop growth
Poly 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
RB 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
Spanish Poly 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
civforum.de 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
UCiv: 31, score increase of 2, equals +1 pop growth
One quick thing to note is that the two pop increases means that almost certainly the teams that built warriors were WPC, and (Expansive) UCiv. Huh???
WPC 37, score increase of 8, equals tech + 1 pop growth
Poly 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
RB 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
Spanish Poly 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
civforum.de 35, score increase of 6, equals tech
UCiv: 31, score increase of 2, equals +1 pop growth
One quick thing to note is that the two pop increases means that almost certainly the teams that built warriors were WPC, and (Expansive) UCiv. Huh???
YossarianLives
Deity
Ok, lets puzzle this one out. We saw 5(!) techs researched on Turn 9. The minimum gold towards research right now would be 10 / turn (8 Palace, 1 City Center tile, 1 free research). I think fishing and hunting are out of the question because theyre too cheap at 67. The 100 cost techs also seem out of reach in 9 turns, as we can attest. Myst and Mining make sense at 84. Mining makes the most sense there as it leads to BW for whips, chops and copper. The great thing is well know for sure how many teams researched Mining as soon as we get the Demos screenshot because it comes with a 2k power increase. Of course, a warrior build could obscure this, but there cant be ANOTHER team building a warrior, can there? AH (168), Hunting (67) and Sailing (168) also give 2k power, but only Mining makes sense on T9.
Of the five tech increases, we had two teams who settled on T0 (RB & Spanish Poly) and three who settled on T1 (WPC, civforum.de & Poly). That means RB and Spanish Poly were working 0 commerce for at least six of the first nine turns. RB is definitely working a forested PH for the Exp bonus on a worker, so that makes sense. Im sure theyre going Mining-->BW. Spanish Poly could have conceivably researched Myst for SH since theyre Cha, but I doubt it. WPC, civforum.de and Poly settled on T1, so to get the 84 research, they must have been working at least one commerce tile for at least four turns. This is interesting, as it implies that some of the teams that moved before settling went towards a river. For us, moving would have taken us off the river and onto a lake. All these teams definitely still have a lake in their starting nine tiles, but maybe they have a river within their radius, too.
Of the five tech increases, we had two teams who settled on T0 (RB & Spanish Poly) and three who settled on T1 (WPC, civforum.de & Poly). That means RB and Spanish Poly were working 0 commerce for at least six of the first nine turns. RB is definitely working a forested PH for the Exp bonus on a worker, so that makes sense. Im sure theyre going Mining-->BW. Spanish Poly could have conceivably researched Myst for SH since theyre Cha, but I doubt it. WPC, civforum.de and Poly settled on T1, so to get the 84 research, they must have been working at least one commerce tile for at least four turns. This is interesting, as it implies that some of the teams that moved before settling went towards a river. For us, moving would have taken us off the river and onto a lake. All these teams definitely still have a lake in their starting nine tiles, but maybe they have a river within their radius, too.
YossarianLives
Deity
Thanks for the screenshots Caledorn. Spreadsheet is updated.
So, there was a significant soldier increase this turn. Rival Best went up from 6000 to 8000, and Rival Average went up from 3750 to 5250. Thats an average increase of 1500, which is a total increase of 12,000. WPC and Uciv each got 1k power for growing, so that leaves 10,000 from techs. That has to be 2,000 for each team, so every team researched Mining. The only way I can think of where this wouldnt be the case is if someone somehow researched TW for 4k soldiers, and someone else researched something without any soldier points (Myst?). Everyone researching Mining seems much more likely, so thats what I put in the spreadsheet.
Rival Best Food went up to 8, so at least one of the teams that grew this turn is probably working two 3-food tiles (or thats what the governor assigned them to, if they havent logged in yet).
Uciv could be researching a religion. If this is right, they should be founding Buddhism in 3 or 4 turns.
So, there was a significant soldier increase this turn. Rival Best went up from 6000 to 8000, and Rival Average went up from 3750 to 5250. Thats an average increase of 1500, which is a total increase of 12,000. WPC and Uciv each got 1k power for growing, so that leaves 10,000 from techs. That has to be 2,000 for each team, so every team researched Mining. The only way I can think of where this wouldnt be the case is if someone somehow researched TW for 4k soldiers, and someone else researched something without any soldier points (Myst?). Everyone researching Mining seems much more likely, so thats what I put in the spreadsheet.
Rival Best Food went up to 8, so at least one of the teams that grew this turn is probably working two 3-food tiles (or thats what the governor assigned them to, if they havent logged in yet).
Uciv could be researching a religion. If this is right, they should be founding Buddhism in 3 or 4 turns.
2metraninja
Defender of Nabaxica
Great analyzes, keep them comming 
Arkipeller
Ancient of Lore
Great analyzes, keep them comming
How much power does Archery provide? I could not find the overview I've seen somewhere
YossarianLives
Deity
Archery gives 6000 and requires hunting. Only Spanish Poly started with hunting. They started with 2000 power so it's possible they got Archery and two other teams got techs without power (myst?). We'll have to keep that in mind as a possibility.
If you want access to the spreadsheet (where I got all this info at a glance), just give me your email or log onto our diplo.civfanatics at gmail account and give yourself access. This applies to anyone.
If you want access to the spreadsheet (where I got all this info at a glance), just give me your email or log onto our diplo.civfanatics at gmail account and give yourself access. This applies to anyone.
talonschild
Drive-By NESer
Just looking at the spreadsheet - it says "Remember to push back second ring if team goes into anarchy."
How do we tell if that happens?
How do we tell if that happens?
YossarianLives
Deity
If we've met a team, we'll get an announcement that they've gone into Slavery. If we haven't met a team, it works conversely. The land score will be delayed by one turn, showing us that at some point the team went into anarchy (slavery). This will help us verify who got BW, too.
But you know what, thinking about it, that's not actually true. Anarchy will only affect the score if it delays the culture expansion, so it won't affect anything before the T50 border pop, which shows up on the scoreboard at T70. But by that time teams will have second and third cities so there's a lot more that goes into it and we can't really predict anything that far ahead yet. I'll delete the note.
And this is exactly why others should be looking over the spreadsheet!
But you know what, thinking about it, that's not actually true. Anarchy will only affect the score if it delays the culture expansion, so it won't affect anything before the T50 border pop, which shows up on the scoreboard at T70. But by that time teams will have second and third cities so there's a lot more that goes into it and we can't really predict anything that far ahead yet. I'll delete the note.
And this is exactly why others should be looking over the spreadsheet!
