I still think settling on the wet rice is the clear best move here!

I don't think you guys are valuing the extra 1 food in cap square enough ... or the advantage that comes from being able to skip agriculture and go straight for bronze... Esp on marathon when the barbs are just absurdly bad.
settle on Rice gives me worker 6 turns sooner, and then i can get a 17 turn growth without even improving any food tiles.
If i settle in place, it'll take 14 turns just to improve the rice, after which i'll be at 42/66 growth, and then i'll need 5 more at +5f/t. So 19 turn growth, in total, even rushing agriculture. So the rice saves 8 turns immediately (2 from growth, 6 from worker)...but thats not even the biggest advantage...
settling on the rice allows me to immediately tech bronze working for chops, while still working two very strong tiles (a grass hill mine is just as good as wet rice for settler gen with imp).
By getting bronze working ~20 turns sooner, i can chop two extra forests. The worker is coming 6 turns sooner and i don't have to use 15 worker turns on the rice, so these chops are more than free. This means i not only get my settler out a few turns early, i also get a 2nd worker basically at around turn 80 (depending on how many warriors i build... i built 2 this game). And my cap is still 1 hammer/turn more productive (at size 2) when making settlers than if i had settled in place. I'm also getting wheel and pottery ~20 turns faster too, and math sooner too, which (in this game) allowed me to chop my 6th settler and 5th worker faster and more efficiently.
the lack of food in cap does not really become relevant until at least turn 120 or so when I'm ready to consider growing it out past size 2. by then i'll have had about 40 extra worker turns (from the 2nd worker)... since the barbs were so bad, i used those worker turns to chop a bunch of axemen...
honestly with the barbs this bad, i think this map is unplayable if you don't settle on the rice... but even if the barbs weren't so bad, i still could have used those chops for an extra worker and settler. and that's in addition to the ~5 turns saved in 2nd city and the ~10 turns saved in capital.
in the long term---i'm getting my cottages out sooner, and i have more citizens available total to work cottages, so i'm going to end up with quite a lot more villages/towns by the mid-game than i could possibly have if i had settled in place--due to the extra chops and faster workers/settlers. So even if my cap is stunted in growth slightly and i'm behind on great people points, i'm making up for it mid game in pure beakers per turn.