Superpower(s) of 2100

[kronic]

Since the economic level of Turkey is really low I'm not much impressed by their current growth rates. And btw, in 1998-2002 they only had 1,0 % each year which means that they performed as bad as or even worse than most of the EU members in that period.

And just for understanding, Marla: are you not in favor of the EU being a political union or Turkey being part of the EU as political union?

I can see Turkey as a member of a common free trade area, but not more. I don't want them to join the common market or any European political union in the next 50 years.

 

[De Lorimier]

I thought the EU was just an economical union .

Just like Canada Sobieski, just like Canada...

 

[Milan's Warrior]

A)I want a european fedeal union and I have always wanted it; i dotn hink the EU shoudl be a "mere free trade zone", and thats you single handed bigges tmistake; you ALWAYS make the mistak of asumign Bush is America jhe isnt, and I have news for you; Americans resetn the french more for that trian fo through then any amount of Bu****e propaganda; to think that you can classify us so easilly under one banner, that we are all so simpel as that is utterlly offensive.

I think the recent round of enlargement spelled with finality the words "the end" to the EU as a federal state. No population would accept to be in the minority within such a heterogenous EU.
It is difficult to forsee whether the political union idea will start rolling again in the future. We'll see

B)Screw the netherlands. somtimes people have to tak eone for the team; thats why the US is a federated Union of states into one nation. I fthe majority of europe thinks that Turkey shoudl be in, then turkey shoudl be in; of the res to feurope decides that the EU can cont9ineu to becoem a full nation with turkey in it, then screw the netherlands, and continue intergration.

The Nederlands are a very important part of the EU. They are a founding member and (in my opinion) very socially advanced.

C) I dont see how the EU wouldnt want to share a border with north Korea; if Russia improves enough to joinl then let them join; and all the mor epower to them, and a federal europe. hopefully a Russian entrence could pave the way to a world Union.

Preposterous. Would you want to share a "one person, one vote" democracy with close to 200million of Russians?
I have nothing against the russian people per se, but I think democracy takes time to take roots.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

I suppose once we split up, Quebec will become the next superpower

 

[Marla_Singer]

The only one that will not make ths suerpower status is the EU. Too fragmented politically and military and far too diluted. Too heterogenous.
That does not mean the EU will be unimportant, just not quite in the club

Could you explain me how Europe is too heterogenous and India is not ?

There are 30 languages in India and 20 different alphabets !

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Since the economic level of Turkey is really low I'm not much impressed by their current growth rates. And btw, in 1998-2002 they only had 1,0 % each year which means that they performed as bad as or even worse than most of the EU members in that period.

And just for understanding, Marla: are you not in favor of the EU being a political union or Turkey being part of the EU as political union?

I can see Turkey as a member of a common free trade area, but not more. I don't want them to join the common market or any European political union in the next 50 years.

My point is simple. I'm strongly convinced that if Turkey joins the EU, there will be simply no political union. I generally agree with you by the way.

 

[Milan's Warrior]

Could you explain me how Europe is too heterogenous and India is not ?

There are 30 languages in India and 20 different alphabets !

True, but India is already a unitary state; the EU is not. In my opinion to be a unitary state is a prerequisite to become a superpower. The EU heterogeneity prevents it to become a unitary state which in turn prevents it to become powerful diplomatically and military.

 

[Marla_Singer]

True, but India is already a unitary state; the EU is not. In my opinion to be a unitary state is a prerequisite to become a superpower. The EU heterogeneity prevents it to become a unitary state which in turn prevents it to become powerful diplomatically and military.

Well, this thread is about 2100 right ?

Well at that time, in 2100, there are strong chance India and Europe will be very similar structurally speaking.

 

[kronic]

My point is simple. I'm strongly convinced that if Turkey joins the EU, there will be simply no political union.

Yes, that's my impression as well. I already think that the EU's expansion has gone too fast (not too far!) to head for any notable development in order to build a political union in the next 2 decades.

 

[gael]

The EU, potentialy, is a good political unifier, as well as economic, in a 'continent' that has been scared from centuries of war and imperalism, were many groups are looking for autonomy, violenty in some cases.

It could give those regions a more graceful and easier path to independence under one banner while simultaneously stopping the rise of radical nationalism.

I think its a positive thing in the long run.

 

[Ebitdadada]

This should have been a multiple options poll
I think US, China, Russia and India.
The Us does not seem in the mood to relinquish its position.

What if we're in a different mood in 100 years?

My List

Number One is China

Number 2 could be the US Europe or India

 

[gael]

Turkey is inevitable, but i don't follow politics enough to know if its good or bad right now.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Turkey is inevitable, but i don't follow politics enough to know if its good or bad right now.

How is Turkey inevitable ?

 

[PantheraTigris2]

'Turkey is inevitable', Marla... you know it, and I know it...

....deny it, thou cannot!

(hey, where did that smiley come from??)

 

[gael]

How is Turkey inevitable ?

Are they not trying to push reforms to get accepted?

Eventually they'll come around in time.

Why do you think it isn't inevitable when everything is pointing that direction?

 

[Marla_Singer]

Are they not trying to push reforms to get accepted?

Eventually they'll come around in time.

Why do you think it isn't inevitable when everything is pointing that direction?

Well, actually, I wonder why we pressure so much Europeans to accept Turkey in the EU. But what is true is that : first, it's not planned before 2020 at best ; and second, there is a strong resistance and many people opposing it.

It is avoidable of course. Many things can change from now to 2020. Maybe for instance, a Free Trade zone would be created for countries who don't want of the political union (UK, Sweden, Denmark, maybe Norway and Switzerland would join it), and in such a case, Turkey could join that zone then.

What is sure is that if Turkey is decided to join the EU without the consent of Europeans (who are in majority against it), it will be a very very bad news.

 

[gael]

Why are most europeans in the majority against it?

 

[Yaype]

Turkey hasn't been admitted. It's not Bush who decides for this.

If that isn't a cheap, completely off topic shot, I do not know what is.

As for the topic on hand, I think that the US is going to manage to hold onto to its top spot, but not without some seirous competition from China.

 

[Marla_Singer]

If that isn't a cheap, completely off topic shot, I do not know what is.

You've maybe not heard it but George Bush has made a speech in Istanbul where he has strongly "advised" Europe to welcome Turkey.

 

[jonatas]

It is avoidable of course. Many things can change from now to 2020. Maybe for instance, a Free Trade zone would be created for countries who don't want of the political union (UK, Sweden, Denmark, maybe Norway and Switzerland would join it), and in such a case, Turkey could join that zone then.

.

that would be a very unfortunate result for the EU... hopefully those countries will join

 

[Marla_Singer]

that would be a very unfortunate result for the EU... hopefully those countries will join

Well, I completely agree with you it would be unfortunate... but my illusions are falling one after the other when it's about Europe. Something must be done or we won't go forward.