OK, I’ve run through some simulations. Assuming we attack only with our 62 healthy cavalry, we can expect to lose 17 cavalry, have 5 retreat, and kill 40 Nuts - definitely better than trying to defend against that many units.
I have assumed we would take off 33 hps with our 39 artillery (some of our shots should be at 2 hp infantry, so we will lose our rate of fire of 2). I assumed 6 of our units were hit with defensive bombard. I actually meant to assume that defensive bombard was 100% successful, but I forgot about the guerilla – in any case, 6/7 should be a conservative assumption from our perspective.
If we do this, we can expect the Nuts to have 15 units survive. We could possibly continue the attack with injured cavalry or conscript infantry depending on what the Nuts’ top defender is, but that’s impossible to plan ahead if that will be worthwhile.
15 units is a manageable number. We should still have 45 cavalry in various stages of health plus our 7 infantry and 12 hoplites which will leave no danger of the Nuts taking a town and make it very easy to kill their remaining units next turn (assuming they leave them and can’t add another 40 units next turn).
Here is what I would do:
1. Obviously bombard with our artillery first. Since we expect the Nuts to end with about 15 units left, I would move the artillery before bombarding – 15 in Ithaca, 15 in Rhodes, and 9 on the mountain.
2. Attack with healthy cavalry. Wake up all units but be careful how you move them. Don’t move any units past the Nut’s stack where the Nuts can use their ZoC fire. The ones on the mountain attack from where they are, and the ones in Ithaca attack from where they are. Others just be careful not to let them pass the stack before attacking – probably just attack from the west.
3. Any surviving units, just hit (w)ait temporarily so you retain their movement points until we know how many survivors we each have.
4. Generally, I would attack with veterans, then regulars, then elites. However, in this case, consider attacking with 53 of our vets, then the regulars, then the elites, then the remaining 3 vets. The reason is that if all 4 of our elites win, then we have over a 20% chance of a leader. If we get a leader, then he should form an army, load it with the 3 vet cavalry who have not moved, and attack the Nut stack with the army 4 times (attack from Ithaca, so the army will be there to defend after its last movement point is exhausted).
5. Consider attacking with injured cavalry and conscript infantry if it is high percentage. Be careful attacking cavalry with infantry since we don’t want them to retreat closer to Ephebe. You will have to use your judgment whether it is worth pressing the attack or not depending on what Nuts are left.
6. Rearrange for defense. The towns are more important than the mountain, but if we are keeping some artillery on the mountain, then we need to defend it pretty carefully. However, if they have 15 units, and we have 64, then we can hold everything comfortably. We need serious units in Ithaca, Rhodes, and Hindus River, and don’t forget to put 2 units each in Antville and Ephebe to protect against a potential cavalry army. Units that are ¼ or 2/5, prefer to put in Hindus River since the barracks will accelerated their healing. Other than that, make sure all towns have healthy defensive units on top.
EDIT - I would also like to block a potential KISS landing in the northwest if we can spare the units.
There is also at least 1 KISS frigate that can be bombarded and attacked. I didn’t look closely to see if we could reach any pirates. Obviously all boats should continue scouting, bombarding if available, and ending in port if possible.
I have assumed we would take off 33 hps with our 39 artillery (some of our shots should be at 2 hp infantry, so we will lose our rate of fire of 2). I assumed 6 of our units were hit with defensive bombard. I actually meant to assume that defensive bombard was 100% successful, but I forgot about the guerilla – in any case, 6/7 should be a conservative assumption from our perspective.
If we do this, we can expect the Nuts to have 15 units survive. We could possibly continue the attack with injured cavalry or conscript infantry depending on what the Nuts’ top defender is, but that’s impossible to plan ahead if that will be worthwhile.
15 units is a manageable number. We should still have 45 cavalry in various stages of health plus our 7 infantry and 12 hoplites which will leave no danger of the Nuts taking a town and make it very easy to kill their remaining units next turn (assuming they leave them and can’t add another 40 units next turn).
Here is what I would do:
1. Obviously bombard with our artillery first. Since we expect the Nuts to end with about 15 units left, I would move the artillery before bombarding – 15 in Ithaca, 15 in Rhodes, and 9 on the mountain.
2. Attack with healthy cavalry. Wake up all units but be careful how you move them. Don’t move any units past the Nut’s stack where the Nuts can use their ZoC fire. The ones on the mountain attack from where they are, and the ones in Ithaca attack from where they are. Others just be careful not to let them pass the stack before attacking – probably just attack from the west.
3. Any surviving units, just hit (w)ait temporarily so you retain their movement points until we know how many survivors we each have.
4. Generally, I would attack with veterans, then regulars, then elites. However, in this case, consider attacking with 53 of our vets, then the regulars, then the elites, then the remaining 3 vets. The reason is that if all 4 of our elites win, then we have over a 20% chance of a leader. If we get a leader, then he should form an army, load it with the 3 vet cavalry who have not moved, and attack the Nut stack with the army 4 times (attack from Ithaca, so the army will be there to defend after its last movement point is exhausted).
5. Consider attacking with injured cavalry and conscript infantry if it is high percentage. Be careful attacking cavalry with infantry since we don’t want them to retreat closer to Ephebe. You will have to use your judgment whether it is worth pressing the attack or not depending on what Nuts are left.
6. Rearrange for defense. The towns are more important than the mountain, but if we are keeping some artillery on the mountain, then we need to defend it pretty carefully. However, if they have 15 units, and we have 64, then we can hold everything comfortably. We need serious units in Ithaca, Rhodes, and Hindus River, and don’t forget to put 2 units each in Antville and Ephebe to protect against a potential cavalry army. Units that are ¼ or 2/5, prefer to put in Hindus River since the barracks will accelerated their healing. Other than that, make sure all towns have healthy defensive units on top.
EDIT - I would also like to block a potential KISS landing in the northwest if we can spare the units.
There is also at least 1 KISS frigate that can be bombarded and attacked. I didn’t look closely to see if we could reach any pirates. Obviously all boats should continue scouting, bombarding if available, and ending in port if possible.
), then I'm sure peter grimes would really appreciate it 
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