The 188 Day Cycle

[Skwink]

Has anyone else heard of this thing? Are these earthquakes a strange set of coincidence s are something else? Here's a link to a site that discusses it: Link

Here's a video from March 7th that called an earthquake for March 21-22, based on the cycle. On March 20th there was a large earthquake in Mexico.
Link to video.

Normally I don't believe in these things but I'm sure gonna be ready in late September this year. What do you think about it?

 

[emzie]

This whole thing reeks of a Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

From USGS:

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year, which includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 38 years, from 1973 through 2011, our records show that we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes only 8 times, in 1976, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

The year with the largest total was 2010, with 24 earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude 7.0. In other years the total was well below the 16 per year expected based on the long-term average: 1989 only saw 6, while 1988 saw only 7 major earthquakes.

So I'd first like to see why they're including New Zealand and Fiji but not other 7.0+ quakes from the same time period. Without a reason to include only 2 of a larger subset, you are picking and choosing your data. That is bad science. As for the prediction of the Mexico City quake, if you have 16 earthquakes a year of 7.0+ then they're dispersed roughly once every 4 weeks. If you set a 4 day window, your chances of getting lucky are 1-in-7. Just to be clear, I didn't work out the math beyond a back of an envelope there.

Edit: once every 23 days, so a 4-day window has a better than 1-in-6 chance of correctly predicting a 7.0+ quake.

 

[Cutlass]

Based on the first 20 seconds of that vid the guy looks like a quack.

There is no regular cycle like that in major geological events.

 

[Skwink]

This whole thing reeks of a Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

From USGS:

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year, which includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 38 years, from 1973 through 2011, our records show that we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes only 8 times, in 1976, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

The year with the largest total was 2010, with 24 earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude 7.0. In other years the total was well below the 16 per year expected based on the long-term average: 1989 only saw 6, while 1988 saw only 7 major earthquakes.

So I'd first like to see why they're including New Zealand and Fiji but not other 7.0+ quakes from the same time period. Without a reason to include only 2 of a larger subset, you are picking and choosing your data. That is bad science. As for the prediction of the Mexico City quake, if you have 16 earthquakes a year of 7.0+ then they're dispersed roughly once every 4 weeks. If you set a 4 day window, your chances of getting lucky are 1-in-7. Just to be clear, I didn't work out the math beyond a back of an envelope there.

Edit: once every 23 days, so a 4-day window has a better than 1-in-6 chance of correctly predicting a 7.0+ quake.

As a person who lives on a convergent boundary I like hearing this.

 

[innonimatu]

Based on the first 20 seconds of that vid the guy looks like a quack.

There is no regular cycle like that in major geological events.

There is no predictable cycle. No cycles as such, actually. But there are long-term patterns. Under the current understanding of plate tectonics it becomes increasingly likely for a powerful earthquake to happen (in an area prone to earthquakes) as stress builds up. But this will be on a scale of decades or even centuries and in the same general area. Certainly not days!

 

[Mr. Dictator]

If its true, and New Madrid's turn comes up, then I'm gonna be MIA on the forums a bit.

 

[ArneHD]

Potholer54 does the honours, and kills this myth.


Link to video.

 

[kramerfan86]

Come on man, how can you worry about this clown? he is trying to blame earthquakes on a solar flare, ignoring how many small earthquakes are constantly happening. March 20th isnt March 21-22, his 188 day prediction failed and his "which hemisphere" doesnt save it this time.

 

[Core Imposter]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-03-21-18-05-14

But he might be right yet. Its 3-22.

 

[mrt144]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-03-21-18-05-14

But he might be right yet. Its 3-22.

How ridiculous.

 

[warpus]

Okay so this guy sounds pretty crazy right off the bat, but then

"The Bible says it is"

Yep

 

[Antilogic]

Potholer54 does the honours, and kills this myth.


Link to video.

Thanks for the link. I watched both vids at lunch today, had a pretty good laugh at the first half of the show.

 

[sophie]

lol, nevermind the fact that "large earthquake" is an entirely arbitrary distinction and earthquakes actually happen every couple hours just here in California alone.

 

[Antilogic]

lol, nevermind the fact that "large earthquake" is an entirely arbitrary distinction and earthquakes actually happen every couple hours just here in California alone.

How dare you bother his theory with these inconvenient facts!?