The Africa Thread

[Zardnaar]

That is about all that happens. It gets harder to get foreign loans for a while. Now the sums I did above would make much more sense if they were actually still borrowing more than they were spending in servicing the debt, and in that case they probably should keep taking the money for as long as they can.

If however they are currently sending more money out than they are getting in cutting off both seems like it would be positive.

I am pretty sure that is not the Kenyan states biggest problem right now.

It is true that North Korea deliberately defaulted on loans. It is also true that now no one will lend them money. Those are not totally directly causally related.that now no one will lend them money. Those are not totally directly causally related.

We got ourselves into a bad debt situation back in the 1980s.

Took almost two decades to fix it. Hence why I'm big on paying things back. And don't do it again.

Debts fine for emergencies eg earthquakes, war, covid but you need to keep an eye on income and debt repayments as well.

 

[Samson]

Took almost two decades to fix it. Hence why I'm big on paying things back. And don't do it again.

Can you explain the hence?

 

[Zardnaar]

Can you explain the hence?

I see countries that bationalize stuff or default on debt often for populist reasons.

And governments that run up the credit card for populist reasons. Eg Greece or Argentina.

Things usually end badly. NZ had lavish social programs but we couldn't afford them. But we went to far the other way with tax cuts and the rest of it.

Pay your bills or suffer the consequences then go from there.

 

[Samson]

I see countries that bationalize stuff or default on debt often for populist reasons.

And governments that run up the credit card for populist reasons. Eg Greece or Argentina.

Things usually end badly. NZ had lavish social programs but we couldn't afford them. But we went to far the other way with tax cuts and the rest of it.

Pay your bills or suffer the consequences then go from there.

I still do not see how you go from that to "therefore it is better to pay your way out of a debt trap than default".

 

[Zardnaar]

I still do not see how you go from that to "therefore it is better to pay your way out of a debt trap than default".

Because one can look at the countries that default. They often become Basket cases or just delay austerity.
In some cases they're capable of paying the government doesn't want to.

 

[Samson]

Because one can look at the countries that default. They often become Basket cases or just delay austerity.
In some cases they're capable of paying the government doesn't want to.

That analysis strategy seems inherently susceptible to self selection bias. As in, the countries that default had a higher probability of turning into "basket cases" that those that did not whatever they did. But fair enough, that answers my question.

 

[Zardnaar]

That analysis strategy seems inherently susceptible to self selection bias. As in, the countries that default had a higher probability of turning into "basket cases" that those that did not whatever they did. But fair enough, that answers my question.

Just what I'm seeing.

North Korea for example bcame dependent on the USSR foreign aid. Which was fine until it wasn't and people starved.

Greece is another example. Government spent l8ke mad until the couldn't. They had a choice of austerity or default/no more German money.

 

[r16]

africa has become some hard battleground for CIA operatives . Meaning if the Kenyan President tells Xi to jump off some cliff , because he won't pay and the Chinese can go and complain to Washington , those China dudes who are taking out them CIA assets can also slit the Kenyan President's throat from one ear to the other . Like a band of robbers , sorry , brothers the Western way of governing your country to financial meltdown through your secret bank accounts in Switzerland ; China is taking more of the same [Western] way according to little reading ı made but nobody wants to become exception to new rules , ending up dead .

 

[Birdjaguar]

Take money from the overseas bank accounts of the oligarchs.

 

[Zardnaar]

10% is high what's Kenyas credit rating?

Looks like they've spent about a decade running up the credit card. And then borrowing more to pay the credit card.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

UK ‘tried to suppress criticism’ of alleged UAE role in arming Sudan’s RSF militia

Exclusive UK accused of trying to head off condemnation of Gulf ally over alleged aid to forces accused of genocide in Darfur

www.theguardian.com

Diamond, a senior legal counsel at the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, said: “They told me that the UK was discouraging states from criticising the UAE.”

It prompted accusations among diplomats that the UK had prioritised its relationship with the UAE over the fate of civilians trapped in El Fasher, home to 1.8 million people.

Diamond’s talks in Addis Ababa involved officials from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an eight-country east African trade bloc, along with other diplomats.

He said: “We were looking to build support for a civilian protection mechanism [in Darfur] and moves to hold the UAE accountable in the international court of justice or elsewhere in the region.”

Diamond, who co-chaired an independent inquiry that found “clear and convincing evidence” the RSF was committing genocide in Darfur, said: “We were following on from the implications of those findings, breaches of the [UN] genocide convention and the need for states to comply with their obligations.”

 

[EnglishEdward]

Interesting term, penholder.

The Penholder System : Research Report : Security Council Report

www.securitycouncilreport.org

 

[Samson]

Will Paul Kagame win a landslide in Rwanda election?

After a low-key election campaign that featured just two parties, 9.7 million Rwandans are eligible to vote next week to choose a president and members of parliament who will serve for the next five years.

President Paul Kagame, who has led the country for the 30 years since the 1994 genocide, is largely unchallenged and is expected to once again win the election.

Despite polling dismally in the last presidential election, two opposition candidates with little support and weak campaign structures are again facing off against Kagame and his ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) coalition. Several other candidates were barred from running.

The vote is being held amid escalating tensions between Rwanda and the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Kinshasa accuses Kigali of sponsoring the M23 rebel group, which is waging war in the eastern DRC. Kigali denies this.

Voting is also taking place after an asylum seeker deportation deal that Kagame’s government has pursued with the United Kingdom collapsed. After the Labour Party won UK elections last week, new Prime Minster Keir Starmer announcing that the agreement would be scrapped.

Spoiler Barred candidates :

• Victoire Inagbire, 55: The opposition Democracy and Liberty For All candidate was barred by a court in March over a previous conviction. Inagbire, a fierce Kagame critic, served eight years in prison from 2010 to 2018 for threatening state security and “belittling” genocide after she questioned why a memorial in Kigali did not honour Hutu victims of the genocide. People who have served more than six months in jail are not eligible to run for president. Inagbire denounced the decision and said it was politically motivated.
• Diane Rigwara, 42: The National Electoral Commission rejected Rigwara’s candidacy for failing to obtain 600 endorsements from citizens – one of the requirements for running. The commission also said Rigwara, a member of the People Salvation Movement, failed to provide correct documentation showing she had been imprisoned. The high-profile Kagame critic was barred from the 2017 election on allegations of forging citizen signatures. She was then jailed for forgery and inciting insurrection before being acquitted in 2018.
• Bernard Ntaganda, 57: The leader of the Social Party was also barred over a previous conviction. In 2010, he was arrested and sentenced to a four-year term for “threatening state security, inciting ethnic divisions and planning unauthorised demonstrations”.

 

[Samson]

Bringing arrows to a gun fight

Tired of waiting for the authorities to come to their aid, young men in the Mayo-Kebbi Ouest region of south-west Chad are banding into vigilante groups, using bows, arrows and spears to fight gunmen who have turned kidnapping into a professional pastime.

“We guide the gendarmes in the bush, but we are also the first to go after the criminals after a kidnapping,” said Amos Nangyo, head of one of the units in Pala, capital of the region, which borders Cameroon, told Agence France-Presse earlier this month.

Chadian authorities say ransoms paid in the area amounted to 43 million Central African Francs (CFA) in 2022 and increased to 52.4 million CFA the following year.

In February, a Polish doctor and her Mexican colleague were abducted from the Tandjilé region but was freed a week later, after a combined rescue mission by Chadian and French forces.

Approximately 86 million CFA was paid in ransom in six incidents between February and May 2023 in Cameroon’s Northern Region, according to a recent report by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime.

The rise in abductions is happening alongside small arms trafficking, cattle rustling and drug trafficking. Economic interests, rather than ethnic or religious grudges, are driving kidnappings, according to experts.

In west and central Africa, porous borders are the norm, allowing terror groups such as Boko Haram, for example, to move along the diagonal from northern Nigeria to the Cameroon-Chad-CAR corridor to find possible victims as well as criminal allies to finance their jihadist ventures.

The Fulani, perceived as having a lot of money by virtue of having herds of cattle, have long been targets of kidnapping. But some herders, grieving the loss of their cattle and other belongings to rustling, or tired of being harassed by security personnel, have turned to kidnapping too.

There are also the zaraguinas, gangs of rampaging bandits and mercenary rebels who are active in the forests of northern CAR, some having migrated in from its neighbours such as Chad. With the presence of foreign counterparts like the Wagner group in CAR, some local mercenaries have moved to Chad.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

‘Smoking gun’ evidence points to UAE involvement in Sudan civil war

Exclusive: Discovery of Emirati passports in wreckage suggest covert boots on the ground, despite Gulf state’s denials

www.theguardian.com

The passports are claimed to have been recovered from Omdurman, the city across the Nile from the capital, Khartoum, in an area that was held by the RSF but recently reclaimed by the Sudanese army.

Analysts described the discovery as a “smoking gun” that challenged UAE denials and raised questions over what the US and UK know about the level of the Gulf state’s involvement in Sudan and whether the west has done enough to rein in backing of a militia accused of genocide.

The former Sudan adviser to the US government, Cameron Hudson, said the west would be obliged to act. “This will force Washington to acknowledge what it knows about this, and will force them to respond,” he said.

Some experts believe that, without the UAE’s alleged involvement, the conflict driving the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crisis would already be over.

The document, sent last month to the UN security council, also indicates that the Emirates has supplied the RSF with drones modified to drop controversial thermobaric bombs. These are more devastating than conventional explosives of similar size, and there have been calls to ban them.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Fascinating man

Tunisia's Saied 'pardons' critics, warns against 'Freemasonry'

As the election approaches, Tunisian President Saied 'pardons' his critics, likens himself to a prophet and blames the country's woes on 'Freemasonry'.

www.newarab.com

In his Republic Day speech, Saied also alluded to "betrayals, aligning with Zionism, and involvement in Masonic lodges in Tunisia." The Tunisian president did not elaborate on these allegations but insisted, in his usual manner, "I know what I am talking about."

In a more heartfelt tone, Saied likened himself to a prophet, saying he is "a stranger, like Salih among the Thamud... A stranger among those who were trusted and betrayed... A stranger to this system that has recently reformed and conspired."

According to the Quranic story, God sent the prophet Salih to guide the people of Thamud back to the righteous path, but Thamud rejected Salih's message and treated him as an outcast.

"(...) But I am not a stranger among my people," he added in his speech on Thursday, 25 July.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

And so it goes on

Sudan military chief Gen Burhan survives drone strike attack - army

The army blames the RSF for the assassination attempt, but the paramilitary group denies involvement.

www.bbc.com

 

[Samson]

Several killed in al-Shabab beach attack in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu

Several people have been killed and more wounded in an attack on a popular beach in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, according to officials.

Al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked armed group, claimed responsibility for attack on Lido beach late on Friday via an affiliated radio station.

Security forces rushed to the scene, the Somali National News Agency reported, saying that at least five attackers were shot dead while a sixth blew himself up on the spot. The explosion went off while residents were on the beach.

“We counted and confirmed eight dead people and 28 others injured. But other people also took casualties and so the figure is sure to rise,” Dr Abdikadir Abdirahmman, director of Aamin Ambulance service, told Reuters news agency.

Lido beach, a popular area in Mogadishu, is bustling on Friday nights as Somalis enjoy their weekend. The area has in the past been targeted by al-Shabab fighters.

Al-Shabab has been fighting to topple the fragile central government in Mogadishu for more than 17 years, carrying out numerous bombings and other attacks in the capital and other parts of the country.

Looks like a nice beach

 

[Samson]

Mali Rebels Say They Killed 131 Wagner, Army Soldiers in Clashes (avoiding paywall)

A Malian rebel group said it killed scores of soldiers and foreign fighters during battles with the West African nation’s Russian mercenary-backed army last month.

The Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad, a coalition of anti-government groups in northern Mali [at least potentially including Al Qaeda linked JIN Jihadists], said it killed 84 mercenaries from the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group and 47 Malian troops over three days of fighting. The pro-Kremlin Africa Initiative said on Monday that more than two dozen Wagner fighters and Malian soldiers were killed during the fight, which would have been the heaviest loss for the group since it deployed to Mali in 2021.

From youtube, this includes the contingent Commander and one of Russia's most popular military bloggers.

Spoiler Pro Wagner Protests :

 

[Samson]

Up to 200 people killed in attack in central Burkina Faso

An armed group linked to al-Qaeda, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), has claimed responsibility for what it says was an attack that killed up to 200 people and injured at least 140 in central Burkina Faso.

The attack took place on Saturday in the region of Barsalogho, about 40km (25 miles) north of the strategic town of Kaya, which analysts said is home to the last standing force protecting the capital, Ouagadougou.

Fighters opened fire on teams of people digging trenches designed to protect security outposts. Several soldiers were missing after the attack, and the attackers took weapons and a military ambulance.

“We see men, women and children laying inside the trenches they were digging themselves. Effectively, they have turned into mass graves,” he said, adding that the hospital in the area has called doctors, nurses and other medical staff from Kaya to treat those who have been injured in the attack.

Haque noted that the Burkina Faso army knew on Friday that an attack was going to happen and called on the population to dig trenches.
Haque said that recently the government had been calling on the help of Russian mercenary fighters to support it strategically but also to help stem the attacks.

“Despite that help, it seems that those attacks are getting closer and closer to the capital,” Haque said. He noted that the country’s military leaders, who came to power in a coup in 2022, have also had to face down several attempted coups due to discontent with the way it has struggled with the fight against armed groups.

The country has topped the recent Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) list of the world’s most neglected displacement crises.