The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Thorgalaeg]

I am beginning to understand trump's 'strategy' in Ukraine.
(spoiler: there's is not strategy, it is all for favouring Putin).

The rare earths thing is no a thing. Ukraine is not particularly rich in them (anyone has them in fact), any effective exploitation would take decades to begin (to build the huge polluting mines needed to process km^3 of soil) and US already have all the rare earths it needs from huge mines in China AND Australia.

So the rare earths deal was the excuse to pressure Ukraine to sign the 'ceasefire', which allows Trump to protect Russia's oil and gas exports from Ukraine increasingly effective attacks and return the black Sea to Russia.

 

[Kyriakos]

It wasn't so much an excuse as a way to argue that the US didn't lose (it got something out of it - despite "it" being giving Ukraine the impression it will not be left to lose the war). US would be getting such even with Biden or whoever else was potus at the time- just with less fanfare.
Eurogeosurveys map about minerals in Europe:

Homepage - EuroGeoSurveys

EuroGeoSurveys - Bridging Geoscience and Policy for the benefit of European Society through research and provision of geological data

eurogeosurveys.org

 

[Gorbles]

It wasn't so much an excuse as a way to argue that the US didn't lose (it got something out of it - despite "it" being giving Ukraine the impression it will not be left to lose the war). US would be getting such even with Biden or whoever else was potus at the time- just with less fanfare.
Eurogeosurveys map about minerals in Europe:

Homepage - EuroGeoSurveys

EuroGeoSurveys - Bridging Geoscience and Policy for the benefit of European Society through research and provision of geological data

eurogeosurveys.org

View attachment 728281

Graphite, coking cold and fluorite aren't what you'd call rare in general terms, and as has been said, typically come from elsewhere (China, Australia, etc).

Like, what's the relevance of "Biden" here? "the US would be getting stuff out of Ukraine regardless" has little bearing on an overt attempt at what could plausibly be considered extortion.

 

[Kyriakos]

Graphite, coking coal and fluorite aren't what you'd call rare in general terms, and as has been said, typically come from elsewhere (China, Australia, etc).

Like, what's the relevance of "Biden" here? "the US would be getting stuff out of Ukraine regardless" has little bearing on an overt attempt at what could plausibly be considered extortion.

The point is that US would certainly be getting its pound of flesh out of Ukraine regardless of who was potus. It's only that with Trump this is promoted as a declaration. Any reason to think a different US government would not get the war-help paid back one way or other?
As for the map, perhaps the term (by Trump etc) is used more loosely or there are updated/different maps.

 

[soundjata]

I am beginning to understand trump's 'strategy' in Ukraine.
(spoiler: there's is not strategy, it is all for favouring Putin).

The rare earths thing is no a thing. Ukraine is not particularly rich in them (anyone has them in fact), any effective exploitation would take decades to begin (to build the huge polluting mines needed to process km^3 of soil) and US already have all the rare earths it needs from huge mines in China AND Australia.

So the rare earths deal was the excuse to pressure Ukraine to sign the 'ceasefire', which allows Trump to protect Russia's oil and gas exports from Ukraine increasingly effective attacks and return the black Sea to Russia.

Yes I am keen to look for sense in this mess too. (conspiration? constipation?)

Thinking about Signalgate:

On that day you got a band of international mafia wannabees (trump bureau of negotiators) going on a tour to Ryad and meet Saudi and Russian envoys.
And what is the cartel of oil producers talking about?

Peace in Ukraine!

That was the official version.
The real agenda? We don't know. There are little secrets not for everyone to hear.
But obviously they were talking about the oil oligopoly they share, and maybe testing wether trump (new kid in the club) was a trustable fellow.
Why not surgically strike some designated location in Yemen to show your goodwill? (Houtis were killed by uncle Sam.)

This is how the signalgate buzz makes sense to me. A big smoke screen hiding the crude reality of the oil mafia


Europe?
You got no oil bro

 

[Gorbles]

The point is that US would certainly be getting its pound of flesh out of Ukraine regardless of who was potus. It's only that with Trump this is promoted as a declaration. Any reason to think a different US government would not get the war-help paid back one way or other?
As for the map, perhaps the term (by Trump etc) is used more loosely or there are updated/different maps.

But that's not a real point, because Trump is doing something above and beyond what the administration does by default.

Unless you evidence to suggest otherwise?

 

[Kyriakos]

But that's not a real point, because Trump is doing something above and beyond what the administration does by default.

Unless you evidence to suggest otherwise?

Imo only on the surface - by making it so public. The rest is what always happens: those powers don't help out of kindness or ethics, but for profit.

 

[Gorbles]

Imo only on the surface - by making it so public. The rest is what always happens: those powers don't help out of kindness or ethics, but for profit.

And the geopolitical advantage wasn't profit enough?

It really is a certain look when anything the Trump admin does is talked down as nothing worse than what came before.

Usually, when that's the case, there is evidence. And I'm not denying the overlap on other subjects. So, to repeat my question: do you have any evidence that the Biden administration in any way pressured Ukraine for its mined resources?

I'm not asking for "open your eyes", or "you'd be a fool to not expect it", or for what "always happens". I'm asking for evidence, plain and simple.

 

[Verbose]

Europe?
You got no oil bro

Only relatively. In absolute terms Europe extracts about as much oil as Brazil, or the UEA.

 

[Kyriakos]

And the geopolitical advantage wasn't profit enough?

It really is a certain look when anything the Trump admin does is talked down as nothing worse than what came before.

Usually, when that's the case, there is evidence. And I'm not denying the overlap on other subjects. So, to repeat my question: do you have any evidence that the Biden administration in any way pressured Ukraine for its mined resources?

I'm not asking for "open your eyes", or "you'd be a fool to not expect it", or for what "always happens". I'm asking for evidence, plain and simple.

Of course I don't have more information than you. I am indeed of the view that the changes are by and large cosmetic, the overall strategy being the same. Biden clearly wanted to break the Eu-Russia energy deals - and he did. US now is in the position to demand pretty much anything from those dependent on it; it is among the winners of this war.

 

[innonimatu]

Only relatively. In absolute terms Europe extracts about as much oil as Brazil, or the UEA.

If your "Europe" is now so flexible that you include Norway and the UK, both out of the European Suicide Pact, then you may as well include Russia and claim "Europe" is the largest ooil produce in the world

I am beginning to understand trump's 'strategy' in Ukraine.
(spoiler: there's is not strategy, it is all for favouring Putin).

The rare earths thing is no a thing. Ukraine is not particularly rich in them (anyone has them in fact), any effective exploitation would take decades to begin (to build the huge polluting mines needed to process km^3 of soil) and US already have all the rare earths it needs from huge mines in China AND Australia.

So the rare earths deal was the excuse to pressure Ukraine to sign the 'ceasefire', which allows Trump to protect Russia's oil and gas exports from Ukraine increasingly effective attacks and return the black Sea to Russia.

Pissed that the US will not fight "your" pet wars for you? You somehow got into your head that the vassal-patron relationship was inverted?

In fact the US has no excuse to "pressure" Ukraine to do anything. The US government's only leverage on Ukraine was cutting off its weapons flow there but that was already inevitable and inbuilt for now due to industrial incapacity and low stocks. War doens't run on finance so much as on industrial capacity. The US has none to spare and "Europe" deindustrialized 20 years ago in the relevant industries. In fact it's still shuting industry down. Those sanctions against Ruissia: lots of chemical and steel industries shut down as a consequence. Last week the UK let its last steel smelting plant shut down. Pray tell, how does one fight a war without industry? Ask daddy US to do it for you?

Perhaps it would have been smarter not go get involved in a war in the first place, seeing as "you" have no ability to fight onw? Oh, wait, Spain is not officialy involved in any war. Lucky you. Better keep things that way then.

 

[Kyriakos]

I am not even sure how many times - maybe more than ten - I had mentioned the prospect of the war rapidly turning into a disaster, exactly due to the US not sending any more crucial help. You are always in a very fickle position when you rely on another country (itself not locked in war with your enemy) for your future. But curiously there was the sense in the Eu that the US would simply never do that, as if we are dealing with a metaphysical issue about reliance on angels.
One needs only to look at who is (nominally or not, doesn't matter at this stage...) the head of the Eu (a corrupt former defense minister who was plagued by scandal and then enthroned in the Eu) to not feel good at all about where we are being lead.
And yes, imagining that we can win a war with no industrial self-reliance, and mistaking opportunistic money-grabs by weapons companies in the Eu for actual military independence, is another terrible sign of our times.
Peace talks will happen - sadly not at all for a good peace, only to maim and bury - and the Eu will again be irrelevant there; they will happen between the US (not even Ukraine) and Russia. Eu companies will only try to get the "rebuilding" contracts for what remains of Ukraine (maybe they will fail there too, who knows), out of humanism of course.
Serious polities have long-term strategies. Here we react to slogans and phobias- maybe no one could have predicted how soon the collapse would come after the 2004 expansion to the east (because 2008 had first to happen), but in retrospect it was very quick; when Eu had no border to Russia (even Finland joined only in the mid 1990s- and back then it was by force neutral towards Russia, but clearly the change came with the former soviet-block countries virtually all of which literally hate Russia) it was geopolically an entirely different and more stable entity.

 

[Snowygerry]

The war was a disaster the moment the invasion started.

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

Over 121,500 deaths confirmed by August 1

en.zona.media

We do not count military losses of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR republics. However, if a Russian citizen voluntarily went to war and joined the armies of these republics (or was sent there after mobilisation), we will count them.

Land of the Great Sacrifice: How Russia Defies Western Logic – MO*

www.mo.be

Dr. Joris Van Bladel, Senior Associate Fellow at the Egmont Institute, explores why—unpacking the historical continuity of Russian military culture, its deeply ingrained logic of sacrifice, and the paradox of a state where victory is the guiding principle, yet wars seem endless. Rather than prioritizing efficiency, the Russian state emphasizes effectiveness—often leading to prolonged conflicts where endurance becomes a necessity rather than a choice.

Arguably the Russian state's entire existence is one continuing disaster for everybody in or near it.

 

[Kyriakos]

The war was a disaster the moment the invasion started.

We are in a virtual reality planetarium, I am pointing at Phobos and you are (out of conscious choice, not error) looking at the finger instead

 

[Snowygerry]

Opinions of opinions are uninteresting.

Situated on the vast European plain, Poland often fell prey to its larger neighbours’ territorial ambitions throughout history. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 all but confirmed to Poland that the place on the map it had long fought for cannot be taken for granted.
(...)
These cracks within the western alliance will only embolden the Kremlin to intensify its hybrid aggression – particularly as the US retreats from Europe and support for the far right continues to grow across the EU. In this new security situation, joint EU action is needed more than ever to bolster stability on the European continent.

Poland is defending Europe from Russia’s hybrid war - New Eastern Europe

Poland has positioned itself at the forefront of European resilience to Russian hybrid warfare by investing in its security.

neweasterneurope.eu

 

[innonimatu]

The poles can't resist acting ridiculous, I see. Poland is a military pigmy and will remain a military pigmy. Announcing an intention to buy weapons from South Korea with money they don't have doesn't make them powerful. Expecting Germany to finance the arming of Poland means that the government of poland is high on probably several drugs. "joind EU action" is code for "Germany give us money". Won't happen, especially as the intent would be to use it to create a further threat to Germany. The germans are still resentful over the lost eastern territories.

I am not even sure how many times - maybe more than ten - I had mentioned the prospect of the war rapidly turning into a disaster, exactly due to the US not sending any more crucial help. You are always in a very fickle position when you rely on another country (itself not locked in war with your enemy) for your future. But curiously there was the sense in the Eu that the US would simply never do that, as if we are dealing with a metaphysical issue about reliance on angels.
One needs only to look at who is (nominally or not, doesn't matter at this stage...) the head of the Eu (a corrupt former defense minister who was plagued by scandal and then enthroned in the Eu) to not feel good at all about where we are being lead.
And yes, imagining that we can win a war with no industrial self-reliance, and mistaking opportunistic money-grabs by weapons companies in the Eu for actual military independence, is another terrible sign of our times.
Peace talks will happen - sadly not at all for a good peace, only to maim and bury - and the Eu will again be irrelevant there; they will happen between the US (not even Ukraine) and Russia. Eu companies will only try to get the "rebuilding" contracts for what remains of Ukraine (maybe they will fail there too, who knows), out of humanism of course.
Serious polities have long-term strategies. Here we react to slogans and phobias- maybe no one could have predicted how soon the collapse would come after the 2004 expansion to the east (because 2008 had first to happen), but in retrospect it was very quick; when Eu had no border to Russia (even Finland joined only in the mid 1990s- and back then it was by force neutral towards Russia, but clearly the change came with the former soviet-block countries virtually all of which literally hate Russia) it was geopolically an entirely different and more stable entity.

Irrelevant is the key word there. The EU has too many internal contradictions to carry on functioning. No one will move forward to dissolve it without some near-catastrophe happening (look back at how the HRE ended) but it's just a stage for bickering national goverments deflecting from internal problems ("the EU made us do it"). Useful for politicnas but not for member countries. Some easterners still thing they can extract advantages from other states in the EU, I think their time just ended. Would be-queen Ursula and the bureaucracy behing it put all their chips on the war in Ukraine and lost. There won't be further joint debt or budget increases.

Good riddance. I would rather put a stake through the heart of the thing and move on, France or Germany will eventually do that, but it's a zombie now.

 

[Ordnael]

The germans are still resentful over the lost eastern territories.

!? Am I to understand you are referring to Nazi Germany!?
Utter nonsense!
I think you might be "high on probably several drugs".

Good riddance. I would rather put a stake through the heart of the thing and move on,

Are you from a EU member country?
What is your problem with it?
Just because a very vocal minority is against the deepening of the EU doesn't mean everyone thinks the same!

 

[Snowygerry]

The EU re-arming program is gaining speed, not just in in Poland, everywhere but the most remote western corners of Europe,

Greece to spend €25 billion on hi-tech overhaul of military

The initiative comes as European countries ramp up military spending in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and indications that the Trump administration wants to reduce the United States’ commitment to European defence. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

The initiative comes as European countries ramp up military spending in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and indications that the Trump administration wants to reduce the United States’ commitment to European defence.​

Greece will spend €25 billion over the next decade to adapt its military to evolving high-tech warfare technologies, officials have said.

Of course in itself the Greek army is fairly useless - it spends most of its time watching the Turks, but taken together they form a sizeable strategic buffer against Russia and what lies beyond.

The two NATO members have long-standing disputes over boundaries in the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean that have brought them close to war several times in recent decades.

Dendias said Greece plans to shift from traditional defence systems to a high-tech, networked strategy centreed on mobile, AI-powered missile systems, drone technologies, and advanced command units, reducing reliance on conventional fleets.

 

[r16]

another EU BS . That's 25 billions to fight us . In addition to the 12 billions the EU cobbled to bribe the Turkics to get them out of Russian influence but the Greeks threatened to veto it , so 3 Central Asia states are now to recognize South Cyprus as the authority on the island . Something also that follows the Indian-Israeli trade route to the EU , but that's selling gas to EU anyhow .

 

[Thorgalaeg]

The EU re-arming program is gaining speed, not just in in Poland, everywhere but the most remote western corners of Europe

Sánchez's government is in minority. He depends on a little far-left populist party financed by Iran, Russia and such (curiously same as rhe pro-trump far-right populist party) that is against increasing defense spending, his own party and everybody else is favorable but Sanchez depends on those traitors to keep his seat.