The European Project: the future of the EU.

People still seek meaning for their lives, and in these rotten regimes the young tend to feel screwed by the older generations who (they believe) have found some acceptable accommodation within the regime. So they rebel - those will take up political alternatives, and take risks with them. And while with the current demographics these rebellions should not be particularly dangerous, you have to factor in that the older generations are not so much accommodated as consenting to the status quo out of apathy. Faced with a violent rebellion, they won't fight in to defend it.

That's quite a bleak outlook and I don't believe one bit. While it is true that "the old" and "the elite" control politics to a large degree, the overweight of the first will take care of itself naturally while the power of the second is constantly addressed by reforms big and small. Not sure if it will work, but it don't matter.

My main counter-argument is another: You forget 50- 70% of the population. The biggest party in all elections all across Europe: the non-voters. For them, it doesn't matter what politics happens or not, so long as they can lead their own life happily. They still seek meaning for their lives, but they do it in entertainment, sports or by building their own company or start-up. As long as you allow that to happen, it really doesn't matter that much what happens in Syria, Moscow or Washington. And Europe looks quite stable, even Brexit couldn't disrupt the holiday plans of the British in the Mediterranean, no? :)

(and as we're obviously not going to agree on this topic, this'll probably be my last post in that regard here for now :))
 
My country used to be described as the country of Fado, Football and Fatima (religion). Entertainment promoted by the dictatorship ruling it for half a century. They only broke because a war led to the creation of a large group of malcontents (lower officers in the armed forces) they could not bribe as the had the top officers. The dictatorship relied on those more than half of the population consenting to it, and only having to repress a small fraction of malcontents. Most people disliked the regime but failed to organize to topple it, it seemed too hard. And they suffered way more in terms of poverty and labour repression than people now.

So I do not underestimate the power of alienation in keeping regimes "stable". It works. Until all of a sudden it stops working. It is a dangerous kind of stability! Granted, it usually takes a big crisis (economic or war or natural). The thing with this current regime is that it built in cyclical economic crisis...
 
https://news.yahoo.com/spanish-supr...06chhtOfTkWffw2fSMxMMJILyyTVJUKOqZ7vdx54WLnYc

Spanish supreme court blocks newly elected Catalan separatist MEP from taking seat


Jon Stone
,
The IndependentJune 14, 2019

Oriol Junqueras is one of a number of Catalan politicians in jail for
his role in Catalonia's 2017 unilateral declaration of independence.

The politician, from the left-wing ERC party, will not be given leave
of absence from prison to attend a swearing-in ceremony in Madrid
where he would pledge to uphold Spain's constitution
.

I suppose this will go to the ECJ.
 
This one will be interesting to watch. Where does the EU stand on political prisoners?
 
@Hrothbern , if you can understand french (I can't, but I can understand greek subtitles :D )


Jean-Luc Melenchon: "Tsipras is a traitor of the left and his country"

Is that good enough as translation ?

This was last year
 
I suspect that if Melenchon gets into power (which I don't expect) he will find as Tsipras did that it's impossible to fight against the EU without making a clean break....
 
Difference is that Melenchon won't get in power. His party just got wrecked in the EU election.
 
As EU we really need a member that leaves the EU
and implements a national policy that is either far right of the always average left-right EU, or on the far left of the always average left-right EU.
preferably on the geographical periphery of the EU as not to hinder logistical transport between EU members.

A member "only" leaving the Eurozone would also be great.
 
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I suspect that if Melenchon gets into power (which I don't expect) he will find as Tsipras did that it's impossible to fight against the EU without making a clean break....

France is too big and too central to be ignored. They would simply evict the EU if they had a government really pissed with it. The rump EU would become the little German Empire, and its members quickly scatter away because being an economic colony without others to screw over isn't funny.

Difference is that Melenchon won't get in power. His party just got wrecked in the EU election.

I agree that it is likely that he is spend politically. But politics is very unpredictable now.
 
France is too big and too central to be ignored. They would simply evict the EU if they had a government really pissed with it. The rump EU would become the little German Empire, and its members quickly scatter away because being an economic colony without others to screw over isn't funny.

Well, I don't disagree that France could simply evict the EU if it came to that...but I doubt it would be that simple or that a hypothetical Melenchon-led government would have a mandate to make a clean break with the EU.
 
Among all the circle-jerking, maybe there is also the fact that French people on the whole actually WANT the EU. Which is the reason why Marine backpedaled on the Euro and so on, because populist tell what people want to hear.

You can go back to your conspiracy theories now.
 
The rump EU would become the little German Empire, and its members quickly scatter away because being an economic colony without others to screw over isn't funny.

You are caught up in politics again.
There is not gonna shatter anything
(except your dreams)

Those small countries around Germany are primarily interested in frictionless trade with their direct neigbors, because the bulk of their trade is with direct neigbors. Can it be more plain than that ?
And why would that basic reality become less true when the EU would be smaller or splits up in 2-3 mini EU's ?
And because every country neighbors again with other countries, you get practical reasons for coordinating with countries at two borders and three borders away. => You get a continuum with sea borders (and for now Russia).
And the more countries you neighbour with, the higher economical advantages from frictionless trade under one system.... the less that relative regulation burden from one coordinated system becomes.
And dealing with the assertive big trading partners the US, China etc, and abusive global corporates based in US, China... do you really think small countries have a chance to get a fair deal ???
And would a small country like NL, or Denmark, etc really spend the resources to make comprehensive deals with Japan, Canada, etc, etc ?

The same applies to frictionless free movement of people, both long-distance as when they live near a border and have a job or many customers/suppliers on the other side of the border.
Total land country border lenght of Schengen is close to 16,500 kilometer. If you take only 10 km as depth of the economical small scale border area, a 20 km zone, this amounts to 330,000 km2. That's about the same as the land surface of Germany
(total European borders around 37,500 km)
https://www.esiweb.org/rumeliobserv...ers-in-europe-a-dramatic-story-in-three-acts/
Perhaps this big impact of going "borderless" is difficult to imagine if you live in a country with a lot of sea borders, or already in a big country.


The same applies for pooling overhead activities.
Would it really make sense that 28 countries investigate with their own cost the health effects of some pesticide, food additive, medicin, etc, etc ?
Would it really make sense when each of these 28 countries are going to write their own regulations based on those factual insights ?
Ending up over time basically with the same regulations but in Babylon style tweaked with small differences only coming from random national political coalition effects and not adding value to the content of the technical intention of that regulation.

The driving forces for cooperation are of a very practical nature
And much stronger than some side effects of politics.
 
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@Hrothbern.

It is a good argument, particularly for a smaller continental country such as the Netherlands.

It is less applicable to a non continental country such as the UK.

But more to the point the argument is for the EEC, and not for a centrally run European
Union super state that replaces nation states downgrading them into mere regions of itself.
 
@Hrothbern.

It is a good argument, particularly for a smaller continental country such as the Netherlands.

It is less applicable to a non continental country such as the UK.

yes
The UK combines geographical periphery, sea borders and big size
That gives another balance of natural practical advantages versus several kinds of "burden" indeed.
For France and Germany the situation is clearly differing, they have only their size, and Germany even less sea borders than France.
Italy somewhere closer to UK than France in this respect.

If you look at the following graph, the crossborder commuters (crossing national borders, with Nuts 2 size of region of home residence), you can see that the France->Swiss, the France<->Germany, the France<->Belgium borders are already disappearing.
If you know the national borders good enough you can see as well that for example the Voralberg-Inssbruck part of Austria, the western part of Poland and Czech, Slovakia, Estonia commute more to other countries.
This level, as % of residential jobs, is however still far lower than intra-national commuting between Nuts 2 sized areas, that involve similar commuting distances, shown in the second graph. A big potential left.

Schermopname (3085).png



the within nation inter-regional commuting:

Schermopname (3087).png



But more to the point the argument is for the EEC, and not for a centrally run European
Union super state that replaces nation states downgrading them into mere regions of itself.

I simply do not believe the EU will end up as a "super-state" in the traditional meaning of a (federal) state.
I think it will develop into an area of regions.
A balance between a "good enough" democratic identification and societal cohesion (driving smaller entities) on the one hand and a "good enough" utilising of scale size (by coordinating, pooling, sharing) on the other hand.
When the Capital of a nation is too far away and disconnected from too many national regions, and the performance of the Capital is not able to redistribute prosperity by capital investments, or domestic migrations, the drive for cohesion between a government and the governed is at the end of the day a drive for more local self-determination.
The better a Capital performs in this respect, the longer that nation-state will be stable. And instability is the final argument to make a Capital adapt.
The very fact that so many current nation-states need so much fear mongering from migrants, religions, terrorists, etc, etc to increase tribal nationalism, only underpins that they fear that they are fighting a lost battle.

I think it will not be the superstate that eats up the nations, but the regions eating up the nations.

The EU needs only to deliver those functions that need scale size and are basically pushed up from the regions towards the EU (Scotland prefers pushing up to the EU above Westminster control)
When Czechoslovakia became free, it was (for me) not a surprise it split up in two nations.

The concept of the federal state at nation-state level is imo already outdated, and transferring that concept to the future of the EU is not well thought through. We live in a completely other situation as in 1900.

And this all is besides the practical arguments that the overwhelming majority of EU members prefers a pro-EU future, but absolutely not the full treat of a federal EU (when they understand all the consequences)
And by lack of better words that pro-EU is often confused with the word federation.

Which is used by strong federalists to push for a traditional empire-like federation (like the US).
Which on its turn is used by strong nationalist to claim that "the EU" wants to be an empire.
 
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