The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Kyriakos]

With so much enthusiastic fragmentation on the socio-economic left, it will be difficult for any leftish coalition to take control of the government and pursue a coherent line of actions for many years deep.
Somehow an "inimicus" is a bigger issue than a "hostis".
(I have to translate that ofc: inimicus is ingroup enemy and hostis outgroup enemy)

Post capitulation Syriza isn't left in the first place; it has little to no ideology and seems to be just a group of people who wanted to stay in power for as long as possible.
Had they not been obliterated with a 10% difference from ND, they would have remained in power till the end.
I didn't plan to go vote, but in the end i did, and just voted for ND. Not because i regard them as a good party (they aren't), but due to nothing else being there to be the next government (all other parties have very small percentages).

 

[Hrothbern]

Post capitulation Syriza isn't left in the first place; it has little to no ideology and seems to be just a group of people who wanted to stay in power for as long as possible.
Had they not been obliterated with a 10% difference from ND, they would have remained in power till the end.
I didn't plan to go vote, but in the end i did, and just voted for ND. Not because i regard them as a good party (they aren't), but due to nothing else being there to be the next government (all other parties have very small percentages).

As theoretical question:
What would happen if a new political party would make no ideological promises at all, would only keep things in steady state development, but be completely sincere and succesfull in wiping out corruption only in 5 years time ?
(and giving that money back to the people in the most simple fashion possible: a monthly allowance of the total amount corruption money "saved" divided by the number of people)

 

[Kyriakos]

As theoretical question:
What would happen if a new political party would make no ideological promises at all, would only keep things in steady state development, but be completely sincere and succesfull in wiping out corruption only in 5 years time ?
(and giving that money back to the people in the most simple fashion possible: a monthly allowance of the total amount corruption money "saved" divided by the number of people)

Mostly that is Varou's line. I would have no issue with that. It's not as if the vast majority of greek voters are ideological; recall that Syriza got from 3% to 30% due to austerity and how the Eu destroyed Greece.

And i am against "allowances", we aren't beggars or living in Venezuela. What must happen is to cancel a number of ridiculous taxes. (eg) The 2014- tax on owning property (eg apartments etc) is beyond ridiculous, and is NOT tied to what income one has out of said property. Income-based tax for low income is also a travesty. Tax the rich and super-rich, not those who make beyond-living wage.

 

[Hrothbern]

And i am against "allowances", we aren't beggars or living in Venezuela. What must happen is to cancel a number of ridiculous taxes. The 2014- tax on owning property (eg apartments etc) is beyond ridiculous, and is NOT tied to what income one has out of said property.

ok
I did not know about those taxes.
I was first inclined to say tax reduction as pathway, but I guessed that that would not benefit the unemployed, the poor pensioneers, the disabled, etc.

 

[Kyriakos]

ok
I did not know about those taxes.
I was first inclined to say tax reduction as pathway, but I guessed that that would not benefit the unemployed, the poor pensioneers, the disabled, etc.

Tax reduction is the only thing which will help. Allowances and gifts are for the third world.

 

[Hrothbern]

Allowances and gifts are for the third world.

My personal drive to be selfresponsible, my "pride" did forbid me to be dependent on any allowance I was entitled to, could have had (except for the child allowance and 2 months social security when there was 10% unemployed when I got out of my 18 months turn of the army).
As secondary school kid I earned my own pocket money, as student I earned my own money. When I set up my own small business, I worked at night as security (for the bank loans), etc, etc.

"Pride" on being independent is not an easy companion.

But it is good that you said this, also regarding the EU.
Getting a loan as country is and a fair room to earn your own existence incl paying back is more fair and rewarding than getting "beggars" money.

 

[Hrothbern]

On that EU

Orban has decided not to join the EU party of Salvini.

IDK what his real motives are...
does he prefer to be kicked out from the EPP... or does he see more benefits from sitting on the fence free for any opportunistic media action... or does he not like to be a second violin of Salvini ???

Salvini will not like it.
He is getting isolated.

We get more and more ambiguous positioning

However, in a potential goodwill gesture to the EPP, Hungary will indefinitely postpone the judicial restructuring that fueled Brussels' fears of further undermining judicial independence in the country.
https://www.politico.eu/article/hun...-matteo-salvini-alliance-european-parliament/

 

[Kyriakos]

But it is good that you said this, also regarding the EU.
Getting a loan as country is and a fair room to earn your own existence incl paying back is more fair and rewarding than getting "beggars" money.

Nice; only that the Eu isn't a bank in this parallelism; it is a criminal pawn broker

And Orban is closer to Le Pen than Salvini, given he likes nazier stuff.

 

[Hrothbern]

Nice; only that the Eu isn't a bank in this parallelism; it is a criminal pawn broker

And Orban is closer to Le Pen than Salvini, given he likes nazier stuff.

Yes Orban Le Pen.
Though I must say I do not really understand that massive support for Le Pen.
Many say it is related to the unemployment in France. But France has since the mid 80ies a roughly constant 10% (official) unemployment and 15% Le Pen votes.
Why is Le Pen support since 2010 going up so much ? Sudden nazism ? Or a traditional Social Democratic party failing to stay connected with their base ? IDK.

If you look at the voting behaviour of Orban and put that besides that of the UK (in the EU or UN) you get some interesting overlaps.
Trump allowing that recent WH visit for Orban no surprise.
Let's see how much Cameron is going to disclose in his new book on "their special" relationship.

 

[AdrienIer]

Yes Orban Le Pen.
Though I must say I do not really understand that massive support for Le Pen.
Many say it is related to the unemployment in France. But France has since the mid 80ies a roughly constant 10% (official) unemployment and 15% Le Pen votes.
Why is Le Pen support since 2010 going up so much ? Sudden nazism ? Or a traditional Social Democratic party failing to stay connected with their base ? IDK.

In most countries there is a surge in anti-migrant sentiment, fueled by lower wages for workers, and Le Pen has benefited from that. In addition to that, she has managed to lose the status of political outcast, with the complicity of the media (mostly TV), that has treated her as a normal candidate. That made many people looking for a "F this things need to change" vote actually vote for her despite not agreeing with her on most issues.
Also the number of people looking for such a protest vote rose with the failures of Sarkozy (leading hard right voters to look for an even harder right) and Hollande (leading some working class voters to look outside of the political left).

And finally, I'm still surprised at how her incompetence on economical issues has actually been a bonus for her. She's sprouted some left wing ideas (state needs to do more for rural areas and poor people) and some right wing ideas (companies need to be taxed less) without any coherence, but instead of people realizing she doesn't have a clue it made them project their own ideas on her program. If you're from the left you can find leftist stuff you support in there, and if you're from the right likewise.

 

[Akka]

Well, she's a populist even more than she is a nationalist, and tell people whatever they want to hear. Some people are obviously idiots who don't realize just how scatter-brained her program is (as Adrien said, it's just a big kitchen sink without any actual plan, competence or knowledge) and just find some things they like in it without realizing it's contradicting half the rest.

More deeply though, the far-right has been the only party actually talking about immigration. There is a weird taboo about immigration, and I remember already in the 90, people were warning that if only the far-right was raising the problem, they would end up getting angry voters about it.
Samely, there is an growing tiredness about corporate globalization and how wealth is funneled into the hands of a few multinationals. Nationalists don't give good answers (small countries going their own way are MORE vulnerable to world market, obviously) but they are, again, the only ones actually speaking loudly about it. So, hey, see above.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Voters for Salvini in Italy, Le Pen in France and Farage in Britain have exactly the same profile. Those are mostly popular/rural classes right-wing voters.

In the 3 countries, the same thing basically happened. A far right has rised (mainly against immigration/Europe), then the regular right attempted to copy it in order to take their voters, but this only contributed to make the original far right look even more legitimate. The reasoning is the following: "if respected politicians like Boris Johnson, Nicolas Sarkozy or Silvio Berlusconi tells the same thing than the far right, that means the far right is not as extremists as the leftist corrupted media tell us, so I can vote for it".

What is really new, and still similar in those 3 countries, is that this hunt from the conservatives in far right territories is starting to repel pro-business voters, who are the other traditional component of the right wing and who are usually more favourable to Europe. We can see that with the LibDems in the UK, Macron's "En Marche" party in France, and an expected resurrection of the Democratic Party in Italy, all those having clear unambiguous pro-European agenda.

In the end, this completely crushes the traditional right-wing of those 3 countries which all had catasrophic resuts at the European elections:
- United Kingdom: 8,85% for the Tories
- Italy: 8.79% for Forza Italia
- France: 8.48% for the Republicans


Interestingly enough, the right-wing collapse is a lot better contained in Germany (CDU) and Spain (PP). In both countries, the conservatives have made no ideological concession towards the far right (AfD, Vox) and even if they lose seats, they maintain themselves at a much higher level:
- Germany: 28.9% for the CDU/CSU
- Spain: 20.13% for the PP

 

[innonimatu]

There is no such connection between those 5 countries. Each came to its situation through a distinct path.

In the UK the conservatives are failing only due to not doing brexit. What passes for far-right in the UK was the UKIP, not the brexit party which apart from what type of brexit to do is indistinguishable from the tories.
Spain and Germany are only starting the process of political decomposition that Italy started in the 1990s, and France a few years later. Give them time.

The common thread I see between those 4 countries is the EU and the voiding of national political choices offered by the "mainstream" parties. People wanting a choice outside the ruling clique have to vote for others. The so-called populists, left or right or whatever. Whoever can explain how being popular in a democratic regime is bad? It would be bad in an oligarchic one, hint hint...

 

[mitsho]

Yes, context matterd and yada yada yada...

I can see both sides of the argument. On one hand, there are clear signs for this being the peak of right wing (protest) populism, on the other hand, Germany‘s position is mainly due to a Chancellor being no-nonsense against the radical right since she personally experienced that side during the cold war. But there are others within the ruling conservative party in Bavaria and the rest of Germany who would like to go more radical. It will not help them.

I can‘t talk about Spain, but in Switzerland, we had that wave starting in the mid-nineties and then peaking around 2013 or so. The right wing radicals have been polling at around 30% here, and my take-away is that the Swiss system of concordance (all-encompassing coalition) kept them out of real power, thereby allowing them to keep their opposition path and their 30% occasionally rising up to 55% depending on the voting issue and how active their opposition is. But if they (mainly the civil society) invest enough energy in fighting them, they can‘t really do anything.

So that‘s why I see both. The clue maybe lies not in a decomposition but in a change our society itself. From a People‘s Party you joined to get up the ranks and where you could have to a degree your own opinions to „service parties“ that cater to the (believed) opinions of the voters in a market of ideas due to the alienization of voters from the political discourse and from political engagement in general. This makes everything more volatile and more populistic and that allows the rise of right wing populists saying one thing and doing another by offering simple solutions.

It‘s a small distinction, but I feel it‘s a sign that everything‘s pretty good at the moment. Without a major crisis coming, nothing will change. Maybe the Climate Crisis will provide this, making the youth more engaged?

 

[Kyriakos]

Yes, context matterd and yada yada yada...

I can see both sides of the argument. On one hand, there are clear signs for this being the peak of right wing (protest) populism, on the other hand, Germany‘s position is mainly due to a Chancellor being no-nonsense against the radical right since she personally experienced that side during the cold war. But there are others within the ruling conservative party in Bavaria and the rest of Germany who would like to go more radical. It will not help them.

I can‘t talk about Spain, but in Switzerland, we had that wave starting in the mid-nineties and then peaking around 2013 or so. The right wing radicals have been polling at around 30% here, and my take-away is that the Swiss system of concordance (all-encompassing coalition) kept them out of real power, thereby allowing them to keep their opposition path and their 30% occasionally rising up to 55% depending on the voting issue and how active their opposition is. But if they (mainly the civil society) invest enough energy in fighting them, they can‘t really do anything.

So that‘s why I see both. The clue maybe lies not in a decomposition but in a change our society itself. From a People‘s Party you joined to get up the ranks and where you could have to a degree your own opinions to „service parties“ that cater to the (believed) opinions of the voters in a market of ideas due to the alienization of voters from the political discourse and from political engagement in general. This makes everything more volatile and more populistic and that allows the rise of right wing populists saying one thing and doing another by offering simple solutions.

It‘s a small distinction, but I feel it‘s a sign that everything‘s pretty good at the moment. Without a major crisis coming, nothing will change. Maybe the Climate Crisis will provide this, making the youth more engaged?

Far right at 30% (and occasionally at 55%) sounds "pretty good" indeed

 

[mitsho]

Well, that's Switzerland here. The peak at 30% is parliamentary elections, the 55% depends on low turn-out at one of the 4 votes per year. They never (rarely) manage to win a big 1-on-1 election for a executive seat. So that's what I mean by peak. Maybe we've become accustomed over 25 years now...

 

[innonimatu]

I don't think things are stable at all. Things are rotten, and apathy comes out of that sense of rottenness. Nobody believes in the current system we're living under is the best possible world as it is sold, but nobody believes in political alternatives either. This has described the last decades of several empires before their "sudden" collapse. From the french ancient regime after the 1770s to the USSR after in the 1970s.
I'll risk a guess and say that it takes a new generation growing up under these terms for things to collapse. People still seek meaning for their lives, and in these rotten regimes the young tend to feel screwed by the older generations who (they believe) have found some acceptable accommodation within the regime. So they rebel - those will take up political alternatives, and take risks with them. And while with the current demographics these rebellions should not be particularly dangerous, you have to factor in that the older generations are not so much accommodated as consenting to the status quo out of apathy. Faced with a violent rebellion, they won't fight in to defend it.

In short: expect coups and revolutions to start overthrowing apparently stable democracies. Not mass movements and protests, but actual paramilitary groups or military coups just marching in and taking power. Or even just "strongmen" who got elected into executive power to use it to entrench themselves there and dismiss the "democratic formalities" of the regime. Who is going to bother defending those when it had become evident already that these democracies worked as oligarchies without real choices in elections? Hungary may be a template. All they need is a minority fiery base acting on their behalf.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think that some kind of large-ish war is also looming. In the case of Eu, not with Russia obviously (cause that would cause mutual annihilation) but with the natural gas drilling in Cyprus/Greece, and Erdogan.
So i suppose it is cool Greece has 3000 tanks or something like that. At least Thessalonike won't see any warfare with so much metal in the Evros river border

 

[innonimatu]

No one is prepared or preparing for a major war. If a serious one happens within the next decade my guess is that it will be out of miscalculation/impatience from China. Far away from Europe though with nuclear weapons that would still be a very bad thing for the whole world.

In Europe even the Balkans seem settled for now. I think we'll see dictatorships long before wars. Feels more like the 1920s before the parties ended. Talk of war comes after that.

 

[Kyriakos]

No one is prepared or preparing for a major war. If a serious one happens within the next decade my guess is that it will be out of miscalculation/impatience from China. Far away from Europe though with nuclear weapons that would still be a very bad thing for the whole world.

In Europe even the Balkans seem settled for now. I think we'll see dictatorships long before wars. Feels more like the 1920s before the parties ended. Talk of war comes after that.

Well, Fyronm (the state formerly known as Fyrom) is to have albanians go over 50% of the population in 1,5 decade or 2, and that isn't even required for a civil war there (one happened in the mid 2000s already).