The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Kyriakos]

Barnier is a hardline right winger, and probably the "best" PM the far right can hope for. So they'll settle for him I think, knowing that after the budget is passed they can throw him out at any time of their choosing.

And in what way would this be a win for Le Pen? She isn't obligated to have the budget pass, that'd be Macron's failure if it doesn't.
Wouldn't it for her make much more sense to want a left PM so that inevitably the left and (regular) right will fight when they can't agree on common ground? One year from now she can have a comfortable majority.

 

[AdrienIer]

The two main goals for her to get closer to the presidency are :
-Keep closing the "respectability" gap so she can continue converting the right wing electorate and more importantly the right wing financial backers and economic support.
-Stop the left from delivering anything to common workers in the regions that are economically struggling. Those are a good chunk of her voters, they used to vote for the left massively (40 years ago) and could be tempted to go back to their former voting habits if the left manages to get some things passed.

She needs the political landscape to look like the US's centrist liberals vs far right populists to have a chance, so any move that stops the left from becoming mainstream again is a win.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Well, I suppose 40% support is quite positive.

Thousands of leftwing protesters show anger as Michel Barnier made PM

Demonstrators accuse Emmanuel Macron of perpetrating ‘denial of democracy’ by choosing conservative politician

www.theguardian.com

 

[innonimatu]

The left can only have a head of government if the macronists vote for them. To not be thrown out you have to be either accepted by the left + the macronists, or by the macronists + the right + the far right. Macron decided to try the latter.

"The left" should have absolutely refused to stand down any candidate in the election, refused to taint itself with the liberals (right-wingers) in Macron's service.

 

[AdrienIer]

No. We haven't had a far right government since 1944 and no one with any sense will risk that. Without the left standing down for the macronists and the macronists standing down for the left the far right would be so close to a majority that they'd already have a PM.

 

[Gorbles]

"The left" would have absolutely refused to stand down any candidate in the election, refused to taint itself with the liberals (right-wingers) in Macron's service.

You really haven't been following this election cycle, huh?

 

[Marla_Singer]

The left can only have a head of government if the macronists vote for them. To not be thrown out you have to be either accepted by the left + the macronists, or by the macronists + the right + the far right. Macron decided to try the latter.

Considering the weight of the different forces at the National Assembly, the left bloc (NFP) having the most MPs yet no absolute majority, the only rational outcome would have been a coalition lead by NFP with the Centrist bloc Ensemble as the secondary partner. That would have made sense particularly considering that many MPs from both blocs were actually elected to prevent the far right (RN) from winning the elections.

That was the rational outcome. That would have allowed a left-wing government applying a left-wing platform. Yet the problem is that the barycenter of such an alliance would have been at Socialist Party (moderate left), therefore marginalizing France Unbowed (far left) which is currently the leading party among NFP. Mélenchon immediately understood that and didn't want of it. He considered that refusing that alliance with the Centrist bloc was a better outcome for himself and his party than being part of left-wing governement that would be lead by the Socialist Party.

Therefore the failure of a left-wing government is entirely Mélenchon's responsibility. No one else. He rejected a left-wing government so that he could remain the leader of the left. And in rejecting a left-wing government, the only other alternative was a right-wing government.

 

[Gorbles]

Mélenchon immediately understood that and didn't want of it. He considered that refusing that alliance with the Centrist bloc was a better outcome for himself and his party than being part of left-wing governement that would be lead by the Socialist Party.

Do you have a source for this?

 

[Marla_Singer]

Do you have a source for this?

He told it by himself on the evening of the election, 5 minutes after the results were officially announced: "NFP will apply its platform, nothing but its platform, its entire platform and without the Macronists." He closed the door for a coalition with the Centrist, arguing that NFP could rule the government all alone, looking for alliances bill by bill. He also argued that was the way the Centrist bloc, which also didn't have an absolute majority at the Assembly, ruled the government from 2022 to 2024.

Yet there is a major difference, which is that even if the Centrist bloc didn't have any majority then, it could still benefit of the informal support from the moderate Right, which refused to censor it (censorship means making fall the government with a majority vote against it at the Parliament). The problem is that NFP doesn't have such informal ally currently to prevent censorship. In such conditions, any NFP-only government would have fallen at the first Parliamentary session.

 

[AdrienIer]

That's the media's narrative. "Macron had no choice, the left insisted on having a left wing government so he had to turn to the far right". The truth is that there was room for negociation : when the centrists said that they would vote against any government that included ministers from Mélenchon's movement they immediately proposed to remain out of government if it meant there could be a left wing PM.

 

[Marla_Singer]

That's the media's narrative. "Macron had no choice, the left insisted on having a left wing government so he had to turn to the far right". The truth is that there was room for negociation : when the centrists said that they would vote against any government that included ministers from Mélenchon's movement they immediately proposed to remain out of government if it meant there could be a left wing PM.

That's not factual. That argument was made not to form a coalition with the Centrist bloc but to make Macron accept to call Lucie Castets as Prime Minister.

In return, Macron proposed Bernard Cazeneuve as Prime Minister, who was socialist François Hollande's last Prime Minister in 2016-2017, and NFP rejected him considering he wasn't left enough (even the socialists themselves). NFP was never, at any single moment, open to negociate on their government platform with anyone else but themselves. They clearly had the opportunity to have a left-wing Prime Minister, but they rejected it.

 

[AdrienIer]

Cazeneuve was never officially offered, so this is all guesswork. But even if it's true, the NFP rejected him because the guy literally left the socialist party some time ago because he was rejecting the NFP. The compromise person can't be the guy who literally just betrayed them. Bouamrane would have been a more fitting compromise but I don't think he was ever really considered.

 

[Gorbles]

He told it by himself on the evening of the election, 5 minutes after the results were officially announced: "NFP will apply its platform, nothing but its platform, its entire platform and without the Macronists." He closed the door for a coalition with the Centrist, arguing that NFP could rule the government all alone, looking for alliances bill by bill. He also argued that was the way the Centrist bloc, which also didn't have an absolute majority at the Assembly, ruled the government from 2022 to 2024.

Who said he closed the door? You? Macron?

This is speculation, in my opinion. Ultimately party perception is going to be coloured by own personal opinion of them, especially when it comes to political agreements that generally happen behind closed doors.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Who said he closed the door? You? Macron?

This is speculation, in my opinion. Ultimately party perception is going to be coloured by own personal opinion of them, especially when it comes to political agreements that generally happen behind closed doors.

No he told it himself, I was quoting Mélenchon's own words: "NFP will apply its platform, nothing but its platform, its entire platform and without the Macronists.".
In French : "NFP appliquera son programme, rien que son programme, tout son programme et sans les Macronistes".

 

[Gorbles]

No he told it himself, I was quoting Mélenchon's own words: "NFP will apply its platform, nothing but its platform, its entire platform and without the Macronists.".
In French : "NFP appliquera son programme, rien que son programme, tout son programme et sans les Macronistes".

I understand your quotation, but that isn't the same as what you read into it. I agree with Adrienler in that this seems like guesswork.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I understand your quotation, but that isn't the same as what you read into it. I agree with Adrienler in that this seems like guesswork.

What is guesswork? The idea that Mélenchon refused to negociate an alliance with the Centrist bloc in order to keep leadership of the left? I agree that's up to anyone's interpretation, but that certainly looks a lot like it.

Now the facts are that Cazeneuve was proposed by Macron and rejected by NFP, that no coalition with the Centrist was ever considered by NFP, that they wanted instead to look for a majority bill by bill, notably in allying with Le Pen's Far Right to cancel Macron's pension reform. Now interpret things the way you want.

 

[AdrienIer]

Now the facts are

We seem to have a very different definition of what that means. "Pundits are saying this" =/= the facts.

 

[Marla_Singer]

We seem to have a very different definition of what that means. "Pundits are saying this" =/= the facts.

I'm not basing this on what pundits are saying, but on what NFP members told by themselves:

• Socialist Olivier Faure rejected Bernard Cazeneuve, that's a fact.
  
  

  Nouveau Premier ministre : le PS refuse de parrainer Bernard Cazeneuve

  Le premier secrétaire du Parti socialiste a estimé ce mercredi matin que la nomination de Bernard Cazeneuve à Matignon serait « une forme d'anomalie ». Mardi soir, le bureau national du PS avait fermé la porte à un soutien inconditionnel à un gouvernement Cazeneuve.

  www.lesechos.fr
• France Unbowed Jean-Luc Mélenchon told no alliance with the Macronists (i.e. Centrist bloc), that's a fact.
  
  

  Jean-Luc Mélenchon annonce déjà son refus de mener une alliance avec Emmanuel Macron

  Jean-Luc Mélenchon dénonce la décision d'Emmanuel Macron de repousser la nomination d'un nouveau Premier ministre après les Jeux Olympiques, rejetant par la même occasion l'idée d'une alliance du camp présidentiel avec la gauche.

  www.lejdd.fr
• France Unbowed Mathilde Panot proposed a majority bill by bill, notably an alliance with Le Pen's National Rally to cancel Macron's pension reforms, that's a fact.
  
  

  Retraites: LFI va déposer une proposition de loi pour abroger la réforme, le RN affirme qu'il la votera

  La présidente du groupe de la France insoumise Mathilde Panot estime pouvoir trouver facilement une majorité à l’Assemblée pour revenir sur la loi adoptée par 49.3 en 2023. Le RN a annoncé être favorable à cette proposition.

  www.lefigaro.fr

 

[AdrienIer]

No one on the left wanted Cazeneuve as PM yes. If refusing one name (to our collective knowledge never officially offered by Macron) is refusing all compromise then ok, but in that case Macron is at fault for only offering one name (and that name the one of a guy who literally just had a fight with the left).
Mélenchon basically said that he wouldn't agree to a coalition with macronists, which can be interpreted as many things. Most likely interpretation is that macronist ministers in any agreement made was a red line.
And yes there's quite possibly a majority in parliament to take down the latest retirement age reform, if the far right is true to its words. Proposing a vote on that is a win win : either the left gets what it wants or the far right is shown to be liars.

Interesting choice of sources BTW.

 

[Marla_Singer]

No one on the left wanted Cazeneuve as PM yes. If refusing one name (to our collective knowledge never officially offered by Macron) is refusing all compromise then ok, but in that case Macron is at fault for only offering one name (and that name the one of a guy who literally just had a fight with the left).
Mélenchon basically said that he wouldn't agree to a coalition with macronists, which can be interpreted as many things. Most likely interpretation is that macronist ministers in any agreement made was a red line.
And yes there's quite possibly a majority in parliament to take down the latest retirement age reform, if the far right is true to its words. Proposing a vote on that is a win win : either the left gets what it wants or the far right is shown to be liars.

My initial point was that the left doesn't lead the government because it rejected an alliance with the Centrist bloc. Your answer is only proving it.

Interesting choice of sources BTW.

Blame Google News for it. I picked the first occurence each time.