The thread for space cadets!

[hobbsyoyo]

It may not help the case, but it very likely furthers the mission. I'd be very surprised if anyone admits to seeing or hearing from this satellite ever again...but that hardly means that it isn't working.

Yup, that's my point. It's just really frustrating to see to journalists jump to wild conclusions that are not supported by anything more than unsubstantiated rumors without bothering to ask anyone who has a clue about rocketry what might be going on. There are a ton of possible scenarios that could be at play here and only a subset involve launch vehicle failure. And those scenarios that point to launch vehicle failure are directly contradicted by the limited evidence we have. At the same time, journalists are completely looking over the very real possibility that the government is intentionally gaslighting everyone to keep their cover.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

So the government agency that tracks satellites de-listed the Northrup bird. They typically only do that if it has de-orbited - most 'black' birds stay on the books as long as they are up.

So that points to a genuine failure with the satellite and not secret machinations going on behind the scenes.

In any case Falcon appears vindicated - a launch vehicle failure would have forced a shutdown in launch operations while they figure things out. Instead they are moving ahead with other launches, including Falcon Heavy. That fact hasn't stopped journalists from conflating a mission failure with failure of the launch vehicle though as many of my friends have pointed out, SpaceX has brought that on themselves. If you spend all your time in the limelight you're going to get burned eventually.

 

[red_elk]

IIRC, Bloomberg reported that the satellite crashed into the ocean after failing to separate from 2-nd stage.
They referred to their sources in Defense Department.

TBH, I don't see a point in publishing disorienting messages in press. Anyway, specialists know what they are supposed to, and general public doesn't care that much.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

IIRC, Bloomberg reported that the satellite crashed into the ocean after failing to separate from 2-nd stage.
They referred to their sources in Defense Department.

TBH, I don't see a point in publishing disorienting messages in press. Anyway, specialists know what they are supposed to, and general public doesn't care that much.

Yes, unnamed sources have said a lot of contradictory and vague things about this mission. That doesn't mean we should take them at face value. Upthread I've explained my misgivings with that particular explanation but I have no special insider information.

In any case, the payload adapter (which separates the vehicle from the satellite) was provided by Northrup for this mission so if that failed then it's not a problem with Falcon, which generally uses a SpaceX PAF which has never failed.

I actually am having trouble seeing how you can't see the point in publishing/leaking disinformation. It's a government black-ops asset and this whole episode would be a fantastic cover story. Also, it's worth pointing out that due to the lighting conditions this bird was launched into, ground observers cannot visually track it for the next few weeks. That's the perfect opportunity for the government to say, Well it failed and de-orbited, sorry guys, while covertly maneuvering the satellite into a different orbit while no one can see it. I don't know that happened but it would be absolutely perfect if this happened.

Another possibility - this was a hypersonic near-space vehicle that wasn't meant for a long-term orbit to begin with. It could very easily have done its job and de-orbit as planned and the government then can claim it was a failure again to throw people off what really happened.

 

[Samson]

Another possibility - this was a hypersonic near-space vehicle that wasn't meant for a long-term orbit to begin with. It could very easily have done its job and de-orbit as planned and the government then can claim it was a failure again to throw people off what really happened.

By "hypersonic near-space vehicle" you mean a plane / missile / other weapon that flies around where there is some atmosphere but not enough for conventional planes? It took a bit of googling to get that, and it is a bit of a guess.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Yeah sorry, that's exactly what I meant. This satellite went to a super-low orbit which meant it would have either had to have a propulsion system on board to continually fight drag or it was never meant for a very long life.

A vehicle that is meant to demonstrate advanced hypersonic scramjet-type propulsion could fit either bill. A re-entry technology demonstrator would fit also fit the 'not meant to live long' bill.

There is actually lots of very useful science you can do in the exosphere (which is what the atmosphere above ~100 km is generally referred to) and this could easily be a black-ops science experiment to hone some technologies the government deems useful. Those types of missions do not always require long shelf-lives and spreading rumors of being a complete failure would help maintain cover.

 

[Broken_Erika]

And then it lands on some blonde kid with an orange hooded-jacket in some small mountain town in Colorado....

 

[red_elk]

I actually am having trouble seeing how you can't see the point in publishing/leaking disinformation. It's a government black-ops asset and this whole episode would be a fantastic cover story. Also, it's worth pointing out that due to the lighting conditions this bird was launched into, ground observers cannot visually track it for the next few weeks. That's the perfect opportunity for the government to say, Well it failed and de-orbited, sorry guys, while covertly maneuvering the satellite into a different orbit while no one can see it. I don't know that happened but it would be absolutely perfect if this happened.

I mean it is probably not so good cover story if even laymen on gaming forum don't take it at face value.

 

[uppi]

I mean it is probably not so good cover story if even laymen on gaming forum don't take it at face value.

I wouldn't call hobbs a layman on this issue, though.

Cover stories that raise no questions at all are hard to do. You cannot just conceal a rocket launch to (almost) orbit. The cover story needs to be good enough so that it isn't outright disprovable and the government can stick to their version without sounding ridiculous.

 

[red_elk]

Cover story usually needed when you want to save face or divert attention from something. Controversial media reports serve neither purpose, only create impression that something fishy is going on and draw attention.
IMO either the thing they are covering is completely unrelated to the satellite, or something wrong indeed happened and they don't want to share details.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Every SpaceX launch draws a lot of speculation and media attention. In this way they are victims of their own sex appeal. It's cost their image some because every headline on the issue is being crafted in a way to portray the failure (if any) as somehow their own despite no evidence of this and lots of evidence to the contrary. In any case, even if everything went without a hitch, this launch already had much more attention than say, the classified Delta IV launch that was scrubbed yesterday and today. No one cares about Delta IV's but Reddit and half the internet is in love with SpaceX and Falcon 9.

After reading more reports I do sort of believe there was a failure of the satellite but can't rule out a cover story meant to counter all the attention that SpaceX brought to the launch with another successful landing and the launch of the largest rocket in the world by them just on the horizon.

Any ways SpaceX hasn't slowed down their launch cadence which they absolutely would do if the rocket screwed up so it's a fair bet to write off Falcon 9 as the cause of whatever went down.

Also, there was this confusing press conference by the government on the launch.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

India is getting back in the saddle. Today they return the PSLV to flight after a failure (PSLV's first in 30 launches IIRC) last year. They flew some sort of non-standard fairing on that mission and it failed to separate properly. The Indians really showed their metal when they fired up the satellite's engines and attempted to ram their way out of the fairing. I would have killed to have been in mission control that day!

I put this in the raves thread too but 2 of my company's satellites are going up on this vehicle.

GO ISRO! GO PSLV!

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...tech-with-4th-launch/articleshow/62451093.cms

 

[hobbsyoyo]

The livestream is, er, live:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/01/12/pslv-c-40-coverage/

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Scientists discovered buried ice glaciers at mid-latitudes on Mars. They are only shallow-ly buried and could therefore be easily exploited.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-thick-sheets-of-ice-just-below-the-surface/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-thick-sheets-of-ice-just-below-the-surface/
This is great news for colonization efforts!

 

[Broken_Erika]

Let's just hope they don't cheap out on the domes.
Or try building some dimensional transporter to visit another dimension..... and if they do, make sure to have some marines stationed there.

 

[Takhisis]

And then it lands on some blonde kid with an orange hooded-jacket in some small mountain town in Colorado....

You made me laugh, you bastard.

 

[r16]

okay , people . Let's see the hands ; who still disbelieves in North Korean SLBMs ? With the fake news alarm in Hawaii , one can also assume the vaunted American stealth is not as cloaked as it used to be . It's "nazar" , something like evil eye , after Disney's disgrace in the latest Star Wars movie ! Like , if Zuma is operational . If not , one can certainly feel Elon Musk feeling some heat or something . Like the probability of Zuma having failed might moved a milimeter into reality with his coming out that that he has been in those Silicon Valley parties . American "security" tradition ... You know , really important posts and duties and stuff in the US will definitely go such party people , knowing how to have fun and like not "ashamed" of it . A different sort of a moral compass if you will ... In effect since 50s , when the really dangerous Commie spy was taken to be that brainy family type . So , the guy is one of the "boys" , right ?

 

[Broken_Erika]

You made me laugh, you bastard.

What did poor Kenny ever do to you?

 

[GinandTonic]

Sorry if this has already been posted.

Reaction Engines, the people behind Skylon, seem to be storming ahead. Press releases from the last month show - DARPA has kicked in for their US subsidiary to build a facility to test the precooler at 1800f, 1000c. They're building a big new assembly and test facility in the uk. They are investing more in their fabrication side.

Wow, DARPA on board as well as ESA and BAE!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Sorry if this has already been posted.

Reaction Engines, the people behind Skylon, seem to be storming ahead. Press releases from the last month show - DARPA has kicked in for their US subsidiary to build a facility to test the precooler at 1800f, 1000c. They're building a big new assembly and test facility in the uk. They are investing more in their fabrication side.

Wow, DARPA on board as well as ESA and BAE!

This is great news! Here's hoping they get the funding they need to follow through. This is one of those technologies that seem brilliant on paper but are also very, very difficult to pull off technically. If it works reliably and the Skylon goes into service then it is potentially an even bigger breakthrough than re-usable rockets.