The Tunisia Effect - Continuing Coverage of the Revolutions of 2011

[Formaldehyde]

Google is your friend

Well, that doesn't really answer the question. It just hints that my worst fears are likely at least partially true.

Hundreds of unidentified bodies have shown up at hospitals around the country, says the Front for the Defense of Egyptian Protesters, deepening the uncertainty. On Wednesday, Egypt’s Health Ministry reported that 365 had died during the uprising and that 5,500 were injured.

For 18 days Mohamed Aboul Hassan, 51, Ramadan’s eldest brother, worked the phones, each call introducing him to a new lieutenant or government bureaucrat offering a different story about the men’s whereabouts and counseling a different course of action.

The family combed hospitals and police stations and begged military officials they managed to get on the phone. They asked the national prison authority if the men’s names were in the country’s database of inmates, and were told they were nowhere to be found.

Early Tuesday afternoon, a contact in the military told the Aboul Hassan family that the three men had been released from Wadi Gedid maximum security prison in a distant southern province and put on a military train bound for Cairo. A short while later a cousin with friends working in the train station told them no such train existed, and an official at Wadi Gedid said the prison had no record of them.

On Wednesday, Rabie hired a taxi and made the 400-mile journey to Wadi Gedid prison to ask about the men himself. He found them awaiting release with several hundred others, and said they bore the physical and psychological scars of torture.

The men had been detained at Hikestep Military Base, in the desert outside Cairo, before being sent to Wadi Gedid. They were beaten, whipped, exposed to electric shocks and suspended from the door frames of their cells, Rabie said. They were offered bread doused in gasoline and had guns held to their heads, he asserted. “They treated them like a herd of sheep,” he said.

I bet if the local sheep are actually treated that way that they must really hate their owners.

 

[Tee Kay]

Well, that doesn't really answer the question. It just hints that my worst fears are likely at least partially true.

What question. You asked whether there are any news of them. So some appeared to have been released, some of them appeared to have been tortured. Old habits die hard, I guess.

Unidentified bodies are, well, unidentified. Not necessarily victims of extrajudicial executions.

The protesters will be right not to trust the Army, but it's still too early to call the Revolution a failure. The military, or whoever's behind all these disappearances, are probably hoping they could get away with torturing a couple of thousand people and intimidate the hoi polloi so they could amend the system to suit themselves. But that doesn't mean it will work as intended.

 

[Formaldehyde]

I'm not claiming you didn't google some recent news on the matter. I'm claiming you gave the appearance of dismissing my question with a peremptory "google is your friend". At least we now know of a handful who were actually released.

 

[Silurian]

Price of Oil in Saudi Arabia: SR 0.25-0.50, roughly less than a fifty cent penny.

I really doubt Saudi Arabia would end up in turmoil, well, there's Mecca.

Saudi Arabia faces the same problem as Bahrain in the eastern province which is where the oil comes from.

Interesting article from Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia has a Shiite minority concentrated in its eastern oil-producing hub that also complains of discrimination. Any spread of unrest into the country, which holds one-fifth of the world’s oil, risks pushing crude prices above the 2 1/2-year high reached this past week. Authorities arrested 38 people after clashes involving Shiite pilgrims in the holy city of Medina two months ago.

A member of the Saudi royal family, Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz, warned in an interview with BBC Arabic TV that unless King Abdullah introduces more political participation and human rights, Saudi Arabia may also see protests.

................

It has a Shiite minority estimated at between 10 percent and 15 percent of the population, according to Human Rights Watch. Most live in the Eastern Province, where state-owned Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco is based, and in which they constitute 75 percent of the population.

‘Significant Discrimination’
The U.S. State Department noted in a human rights report on Saudi Arabia published in 2009 that Shiites in the kingdom face “significant political, economic, legal, social and religious discrimination condoned by the government.”

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&so...z-nsDg&usg=AFQjCNGsmGmLms9vx23ut_C5qje9W02ZnA

 

[Tee Kay]

I'm not claiming you didn't googling some recent news on the matter. I'm claiming you gave the appearance of dismissing my question with a peremptory "google is your friend". At least we now know of a handful who were actually released.

Well, it was an easily googled question. I assumed you were only asking for a straightforward update on the situation, which I gave. Unfortunately, ultimately we don't really know much it. The article mentioned a few hundred people were released (after "interrogation"), which I would describe as being more than a handful, but then again we don't know how many were actually detained.

To be honest I'm a bit irritated with your persistent pessimism, when I'm trying to look upon the current revolutionary wave as the start of something better. I don't blame you though, there are a lot of valid reasons to be pessimistic. But the revolution is not yet doomed is what I want to say, I guess. That there are people who speak out against such abuses is a hopeful sign, that autocrats' intimidation tactics might no longer work as it did in the past, and that people are now more prepared to stand up for their rights.

On a slightly lighter note, some funny signs at anti-Gaddafi's rallies.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Well, it was an easily googled question.

Not really. As I already stated, it really just raises even more questions while confirming that many were brutally tortured.

but then again we don't know how many were actually detained.

Exactly. Since there were reports from apparently legitimate sources that perhaps as many as a thousand had allegedly been detained by the military in just one incident.

To be honest I'm a bit irritated with your persistent pessimism....

That's OK. I find your persistent optimism, especially in the cases involving some brutal autocratic governments but apparently not all, to be occasionally irritating.

But the revolution is not yet doomed is what I want to say, I guess.

Are you actually trying to insinuate that I am claiming that, being a "pessimist" and all?

 

[Tee Kay]

That's OK. I find your persistent optimism, especially in the cases involving brutal autocratic governments, to be quite irritating.

I'm not usually an optimist. I've got to savour the rare moments I'm optimistic and I'm really irritated by people who get in the way of that.

It's been two weeks. There are still strikes, protest marches, arsonists and looters running amok. The junta is not so much a government as a placeholder. Anything can happen.

 

[Oishi]

Saudi Arabia faces the same problem as Bahrain in the eastern province which is where the oil comes from.

It's in the eastern province, and Saudi Arabia has 4 (or five, correct me if I'm wrong) provinces. The central region is loyal to the government, where Riyadh is located. Saudi Arabia is a strict follower of the ways of Islam, unlike Bahrain where the populace is exposed to drugs, booze, hoes, and pork.

And, there's Mecca and Aramco.

 

[Tee Kay]

And, there's Mecca

Free Hejaz!

 

[Formaldehyde]

I'm not usually an optimist. I've got to savour the rare moments I'm optimistic and I'm really irritated by people who get in the way of that.

It's been two weeks. There are still strikes, protest marches, arsonists and looters running amok.

And the military continues to crack open the heads of anybody who has the temerity to even disagree with them. I sure hope someone is jotting down the names of those who are now being detained so we can assure a warm human body comes out the opposite end, with or without being tortured.

But I also remain "optimistic" that the people of Egypt can soon be completely free of the shackles of Egyptian military and the US government.

 

[Oishi]

Free Hejaz!

But the royal bloodline died 34 years ago. The only eligible relative is a clown livin' the life in the big apple.

nvm.

 

[Monsterzuma]

Is there any chance at all this will spill over to China is some form?

Or does a recession due to economic overheating have to happen first before it does?

 

[carmen510]

Is there any chance at all this will spill over to China is some form?

Or does a recession due to economic overheating have to happen first before it does?

There were some calls for protests on the internet, and some small-scale ones have already popped up. However, all of that was pretty much quashed by the Chinese government.

 

[Silurian]

It's in the eastern province, and Saudi Arabia has 4 (or five, correct me if I'm wrong) provinces. The central region is loyal to the government, where Riyadh is located. Saudi Arabia is a strict follower of the ways of Islam, unlike Bahrain where the populace is exposed to drugs, booze, hoes, and pork.

And, there's Mecca and Aramco.

There are 13 provinces.

From The Guardian

Despite its oil wealth, Saudi Arabia features many of the underlying demographics that have helped spark rebellions in other Arab nations. Almost half the population is under the age of 18 and, unlike in other Gulf states, some of which boast close to full employment, 40% of 20- to 24-year-old Saudis are out of work.

Many young people are turning to online social media sites to exchange information and ideas."The level to which young people in Saudi Arabia are connected to the rest of the world, and particularly the Arab world, is staggering," Mai Yamani, a prominent Saudi author, told the Guardian.

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&so...htGhDw&usg=AFQjCNGgzwsdLqRNBnwi1ClCw8hcoK_BkA

But in a kingdom where the current laws and social mores work predominantly to the benefit of ethnically Saudi males following the Sunni branch of Islam, some analysts have estimated that up to 20 million of the kingdom's 27 million people – including women, Shia Muslims and some 7.5 million guest workers from Asia – feel dangerously detached from the state, amounting to a potentially potent groundswell of opposition.

How big is the actual support for the Saudi monarchy outside of the monarchy?

When I worked in Bahrain the Saudis came across the causeway to drink etc.

I occasionally had a drink with a son of a Saudi brigadier based in Eastern Province.

 

[Formaldehyde]

When I worked in Bahrain the Saudis came across the causeway to drink etc.

This is why the Saudis are so afraid of what is occurring in Bahrain, and how easily it could spread to their own country.

And it appears to not only be a rift between the Sunnis and the Shi'a. The issue appears to really be more a matter of continuing to be able to buy their loyalty:

How a broken social contract sparked Bahrain protests

The longstanding social contract among many countries in the Persian Gulf is simple: the ruling monarchy offers free housing, health care, education, food subsidies, and a government job for life. In return, the people defer to a system of tribal autocracy that gives little or no political representation to the masses.

In short, lucre begets loyalty, and vice-versa.

But the current protests in Bahrain indicate that, in the eyes of much of the population, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa has failed to keep his side of the unwritten social contract that binds the Gulf Cooperation Council's six sheikhdoms of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Today, the "river to the people" is no longer flowing to all segments of society, with powerful consequences for the region. An estimated 10,000 Shiite protesters packed into Pearl Square in the capital Monday, continuing a week of deadly protests calling for democratic reforms from the Al Khalifa ruling family, who have ruled the Arab world’s smallest nation for more than two centuries. Neighboring Saudi Arabia has called for calm, even as its own Shiite population appears restless.

Indeed, the cause of the ongoing unrest in Bahrain goes beyond the narrow sectarian prism of Sunni versus Shiite through which politics in the Persian Gulf is generally refracted. Although the Shiite protesters demanding constitutional reform were beaten and killed on the streets of their capital by Sunni hands wielding clubs and guns, the reason was not religious.

Saudi Arabia sees the opposite happening, but to the same effect. The world’s largest oil exporter (earning some $150 billion in 2009) has witnessed a population explosion in the past 35 years – from 7 million people in 1975 to 25 million people today. As a result, there is increased competition for the resources of the state, and the Shiite minority has been excluded somewhat.

Shiites, however, are swiftly accused of sectarianism if they question the social order. Sunni rulers questioning the loyalty of their Shiite subjects is not an unheard-of tactic to counter accusations of internal religious bias.

 

[innonimatu]

The saudis and the arab emirates are armed to the teeth, and made sure that those weapons are in the hands of the groups which profit from the current social order. There's no way that they're going to allow themselves to be overthrown. They'd fight back against any rebellion, and win.
They probably welcomed the descent of Libya into civil war - it has been a convenient warning to would-be rebels in arabia, so far. But if the libyans succeed (unlikely) in getting some kind of united, democratic government in place, it can turn from warning to encouragement, and then things would get interesting in Arabia.

My point: the libyans are probably screwed...

 

[Silurian]

The saudis and the arab emirates are armed to the teeth, and made sure that those weapons are in the hands of the groups which profit from the current social order. There's no way that they're going to allow themselves to be overthrown. They'd fight back against any rebellion, and win.
They probably welcomed the descent of Libya into civil war - it has been a convenient warning to would-be rebels in arabia, so far. But if the libyans succeed (unlikely) in getting some kind of united, democratic government in place, it can turn from warning to encouragement, and then things would get interesting in Arabia.

My point: the libyans are probably screwed...

So why did the government of Bahrain back down if

There's no way that they're going to allow themselves to be overthrown. They'd fight back against any rebellion, and win.

 

[innonimatu]

So why did the government of Bahrain back down if

Because that's a tiny country with no real military, with an economy which depends on trade and tourism. Civil war is bad for that. It's atypical in the region. The UAE and Qatar are larger and better armed, not to mention Saudi Arabia.
And street protests haven't yet tried to overthrown the regime in Bahrain. I don't even think they made any concessions.

Remember those buddhist monks in Burma, 2007?

 

[Silurian]

Because that's a tiny country with no real military, with an economy which depends on trade and tourism. Civil war is bad for that. It's atypical in the region. The UAE and Qatar are larger and better armed, not to mention Saudi Arabia.
And street protests haven't yet tried to overthrown the regime in Bahrain. I don't even think they made any concessions.

Remember those buddhist monks in Burma, 2007?

All the Gulf states have small militaries.
from Wiki

Bahrain 9000
Qatar 11800
Seven emirates that make up the UAE have 65000 combined

So they are all about the same size.

They trade oil , aluminium, etc. Tourism makes up about 12% of GDP.

Civil war is bad for the economy of any country.

So how is Bahrain different from all seven emirates of the UAE and Qatar?

No concessions?

From the BBC

Concessions

The government's decision to drop charges against Mr Mushaima is one of the concessions that it has offered the opposition in the hope of securing its participation in a process of national dialogue.

King Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa also sacked the ministers responsible for housing, electricity and water, health, and cabinet affairs. They include two members of the royal family.

The question now is whether the government is willing to offer enough to heal the deepening rifts in Bahraini society, our correspondent says

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&so...1fCIAQ&usg=AFQjCNF5hHj4Lxr6SWZlMmpg53gLn4SK7A

 

[Tee Kay]

But the royal bloodline died 34 years ago. The only eligible relative is a clown livin' the life in the big apple.

We could give Abdullah II the throne of Hejaz after he's overthrown in Jordan.

And street protests haven't yet tried to overthrown the regime in Bahrain. I don't even think they made any concessions.

Police and military stopped using violence
Royal willingness to negotiate
Pledge to free political prisoners
Opposition leader allowed to return from exile, govt cabinet reshuffled