Yom said:
@superisis: I don't know enough about macroeconomics to disprove or support your arguments, but I was under the impression that Ebitdadada was suggesting that demand-side economics was horribly wrong, and that supply-side economics was the way to go, which it most certainly is not.
I think you're confusing supply side economics (endorced by Larry Kudlow, possibly the Bush administration and not too many real economists) with neo-clasical economcis (the University of Chicago). Supply side economics has its basis on the assumption that you can increase tax revenue by decreasing the tax rate. This is basically like eating the cake and having it too. It's also emprically wrong (because of the behavior of the real world behavior of the supply curve of labor, that is increasing people's take home pay by decreasing the tax rate doesn't increase the supply of labor, therefore, the economy doesn't really grow and provide the predicted (by supply siders) increase tax revenue). The Neo-Clasical school by enlarge thinks this is bs.
As far as why I beleive Kenyes was wrong. Kenyes beleived the government could get rid of the business cycle by spending money when the economy was down (running a deficit) and saving money when the economy was up (running a surpluss). This effect works according to Kenyesians because of the multiplirer effect (which pretty much everyone agrees on) which means if you have an increase in autnomous spending of say $2, the economy grows by $8 if the multiplier is 4. So being GDP = Private Sector Consuption + Private Sector Investment + Government Spending (investment and consuption) +(Exports - Imports) an increase in Government spending also triggers an increase in consuption, theoretically growing the economy. This is all good and well but it ignores that pesky little Investment part of the equation. The thing is that like everything else, the cost of capital (intrest rates) is subject to supply and demand. If the government runs a defficit, it "demands" loanable funds. This means the demand for loanable funds increases and like any good, when demand increases, its price must increase so interest rates go up. Now, if intrest rates incease, that means that investment gets more expensive and thus spending on investment goes down mostly canceling out any good the Kenysian policy did to correct the economy so in effect, the policy ends up not really doing alot to tame the business cycle but it does end up transfering resources from private sector investment to government investment. Because private sector investment is subject to price mechanisms, private sector is usualy much more efficient than government investment. So if you follow Keynsian economics for a long time, you'll create some big problems.
That said Keynes did contribute some good theories but he's kind of like a scientist who used to say the sun revolved around the earth but still did some usefull stuff in trying to prove that. I spose he was a briliant guy but he was still wrong.
Anyway that's my opinion and what's in vouge with economists now but who knows, Keynes may someday be proven to be right and everyone who's supposed to know whats going on now is wrong. I doubt it though.