The Young Turks--Precursor to the Arab Spring?

mghani

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Helfferich of the Deustche Bank once said of the rivalry between 19th century Germany and Great Britian, which led to world war 1:

Ever since Germany became the politically and economically strongest Continental power, did England feel threatened more from Germany than any other land in its global economic position and its naval supremacy. Since that point, the English-German differences were unbridgeable, and susceptible to no agreement in any one single question.


Today Germany no longer looks as if it were on the verge of achieving global dominance as was the case in the late 19th century and early 20th century; neither is Great Britian now the world's superpower. Global rivalry in the 21st century has evolved into a subtle and complex rivalry between the US/UK and China/ Russia. FW Ergdhal points out in his essay oil and WW1 that the 1st world war between Germany and Great Britain was more about oil than most people would like to think. This is much clearer in the rivalry between the Chinese and Americans, especially in regard to the rush for oil among other natural resources on the African continent. The so called Arab Spring which has been featured by the Western media as some kind of spontaneous democratic revolution sprouting from the fustrated hopes, dreams and ambitions of fustrated Arab youth oppressed by evil tyrants can be more honestly compared to the political turmoil of the Ottoman Empire especially in the Balkans which led to the rise of the Young Turks to power in Turkey in 1908. This political turmoil was due ofcourse to the natural decay of a decadent Turkish Ottoman civilization; but alot of it was, as with the case of the completely engineered Arab Spring, the crafty manipulations of British intelligence, employed on behalf of empire.

By the late 19th century, the British Empire was in decline. Great Britain however remained supreme in its dominance of world banking and its navy which was the largest in the world. It was in the area of industrial growth which the Germans were able to completely outdo the British. The death of Brithish Empire was a slow and painful one; it begun around the 1850s and accellerated with The Great Depression, a period of Economic stagnation which lasted 25 years, ending only in 1896. During the period of Decline the Germans were making remarkable advancements in industrial growth and output, advancements which even today remain apparent, especially compared to the British who today still remain an economy based largely on Finance rather than industrial output:

From 1850 to 1913, German total domestic output increased five-fold. Per capita output increased in the same period by 250%. The population began to experience a steady increase in its living standard, as real industrial wages doubled between 1871 and 1913.

In the decades before 1914, in terms of fuelling world industry and transportation, coal was king. In 1890, Germany produced 88 million tons of coal while Britain, produced more than double as much at 182 million tons. By 1910, the German output of coal had climbed to 219 million tons, while Britain had only a slight lead at 264 million tons. Steel was at the center of Germany's growth, with the rapidly-merging electrical power and chemicals industries close behind. Using the innovation of the Gilchrist Thomas steel-making process, which capitalized on the high-phosphorus ores of Lorraine, German steel output increased 1,000% in the twenty years from 1880 to 1900, leaving British steel output far behind. At the same time the cost of making Germany's steel dropped to one -tenth the cost of the 1860's. By 1913 Germany was smelting almost two times the amount of pig iron as British foundries.


The Alarm within Great Britain at the German threat only increased when the Germans through Admiral von Tirpitz embarked on a plan to build a German Dreadnaught-class blue water navy to challenge British sea supremacy. The British reacted by trying to modernise their Navy through switching from engines powered by coal to those powered by oil, which at the time had little commercial value. This idea was the brainchild of the British admiral Lord Fisher, who argued that oil technology was cheaper and more efficient. This was a dangerous plan as Britain had an abundance of coal but were unaware of any oil within their island territories at the time. The British Admiral Lord Fisher had made an address stressing on the need to switch from coal technology to oil technology in September 1882; he was made Britain's First Sea Lord ( supreme naval commander) by 1904; by 1912 under his recommendation the first British battleship using only oil fuel, the Queen Elizabeth, was begun. Winston Churchhill who had replaced Fisher as supreme naval commander said:

We must become the owners or at any rate the controllers at the source of at least a proportion of the oil which we require.

In 1899 the British had secured oil rights in Kuwait; by 1909 they had secured oilrights in Iran. However their plans to secure oil supplies for the oil powered naval fleet for the leaner and meaner British empire of the future were endangered by the German Rail Revolution. The Germans between 1870 to 1913 had doubled their kilometres of track in its bid to become one of the world's greatest Industrial powers. And apparently it worked as:

The German electrical industry grew to dominate half of all international trade in electrical goods by 1913. German chemical industry became the world's leader in analine dye production, pharmaceuticals and chemical fertilizers

But it did not stop there; the Germans had intentions of expanding this industrial growth by securing external sources for raw materials for their national industries and also by securing overseas markets for their industrial ouput. This they attempted to carry out with an ambitious railway plan meant to link Berlin to the Ottoman empire of the Turks. The Ottoman Empire at the time was known as the Sick man of Europe, and was seen as the last frontier for colonial exploitation after the world had been carved up between the Colonial European powers, mostly the Spanish, French and British. By November 27 1899, the Turkish Sultan Abdul Hamid II had awarded the Deustche Bank a concession for a railway from Konia to Baghdad and to the Persian Gulf.This ofcourse would mean the British supply of oil in Kuwait and Persia would have been under threat; as such a railway network would make it easy for the Germans to deploy their military in an attempt to sabotage the British supply of oil to nearby kuwait or Persia.

Berlin-Baghdad Railway

The British immediately went to work to defeat the German plan. They arranged peace agremments with other rival powers, Russia and France--The Triple Entente, in an attempt to isolate the Germans, who were left with only the Austria-Hungary empire as an ally. And then come in the Young Turk Revolution which ousted the Abdul Hamid II. It was ofcourse supposedly a democratic revolution started by youth whose hopes and dreams and ambitions were being continually thwarted by a decadent sultan. Well, maybe the Sultan & his empire were really decadent; maybe the emerging educated elites of Turkey as represented by the Young Turks were really fustrated, but there is more to the story than that says F W Engdahl:

The success of the so-called Young Turk revolution of 1908-9 in forcing the Sultan to reinstate a constitutional monarchy with a parliament unleashed a series of destabilizing revolts in the Balkan provinces of the empire. British intelligence was actively engaged in pushing events along. The Young Turk revolutions of 1908 and 1909, which ended the reign of Abdul Hamid in the Ottoman Empire, offered France and Great Britain an unprecedented opportunity to assume moral and political leadership in the Near East. Many members of the Committee of Union and Progress, the revolutionary party, had been educated in western European universities--chiefly in Paris--and had come to be staunch admirers of French and English institutions.[28] In 1908, as Constantinople was under the chaotic rule of the secular Young Turk Committee of Union and Progress (CUP), Anglo-Turkish relations were quite warm. The British Ambassador, Sir Gerald Lowther, at least in the initial days after the takeover in 1908, extended unlimited British support for the revolution. He told the Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Grey, “Things have gone as well as they could.” [29] The role of the Yung Turks, most of whom were members of various European freemason lodges, is a rich and important story beyond the scope of this brief essay. Initially at least the Young Turk regime viewed the agreements between the Sultan and the Germans on the Baghdad Railway and oil rights to be a symbol of the corruption and destruction of Turkish national resources.

So with the rise of the Young Turks came an acceleration of the events which destablised the Balkan part of the Ottoman empire. It eventually led to the Turkish loss of the Balkans; which meant the German railway could not be realised. In the case of the so called Arab Spring we see something quite similar. British and American intelligence fomenting supposed democratic revolutions in a strategic oilweathy region where they vie for power with rivals such as the Russians and the Chinese. In the case of Libya ( where China and Russia were the biggest players), this resulted in a Barbaric war which culminated with the deliberate and gruesome lynching of Qaddafi, directed by Western intelligence. The 1st important victim of the revolution was Egypt. There, groups of young activists many of whose leaders were trained and funded by the USA through the National Endowment for Democracy gathered in Tahrir Square demanding democracy. They were mostly middle class and educated youth with access to the social media; They had no program of Systematic demands which would inspire the rest of Egyptian Society, just the Western media and Aljazeera wasting precious tv time on them, making them look like something relevant or representative of all the Egyptian people. But they were able to achieve what they wantedthe Ousting of Mubarak, a leader far from perfect but very strong who seemed more and more intent on seeking closer relations with Iran which is in the Bulls Eye of the Anglo-Americans. Unsurprisingly these same used and manipulated crowds of protestors are now back on the streets asking the Military Regime they begged to oust Mubarak to oust itself.

In both Egypt and Libya (which supplies 3% of the world's oil supply), however the stated objectives of the Anglo-americans have been achieved. The Strong Independent and in the case of libya hostile, regime has been replaced with an unstable or puppet regime. In the case of Libya the new Prime Minister, Abdurrahim el-Keib, surprise surprise isa Big Oil-Goon with numerous ties to Western Oil Corporations. In other words a pathetic puppet. No matter how evil one cannot help sometimes but admire or at least respect the sheer genius of this demoniacal Anglo-American Imperialist elite. But something that ought to worry us is the fact that the Balkans accelerated by Bristish manipulations led to world war I. With Anglo-Amercan plans to strike out against Iran and Syria, it won't be too imprudent to wonder if this Arab Spring is a precursor to World War III?
 
I think they can only be deemed a real precursor to the arab spring when the latter commits a couple of mass genocides ;)

you seem to have a very specific defintion of the word precursor. Then again maybe we dont have too wait too long for the massacres to begin.
 
So the British and French intelligence services were responsible for the rise of the Young Turks? Could've fooled me. I imagine that's why the British and French rejected alliances with the CUP-led Ottoman state on the eve of war in 1914, then, huh?
 
I imagine that's why the British and French rejected alliances with the CUP-led Ottoman state on the eve of war in 1914
The Ottomans attempted an alliance with Britain and France shortly before war? Please elaborate.
 
The Ottomans attempted an alliance with Britain and France shortly before war? Please elaborate.
You didn't know that? Realizing that they were likely to get caught up in a general European war whether they liked it or not, they made an alliance offer to the British and French and only offered the Germans when they were rebuffed. Came the to Germans as a pleasant surprise.
 
I guess that only proves the cynicism of the British and French manipulators, how they were willing to completely discard the Young Turks after they served their purpose.
 
Well, one things which is an old truth is that instability in a country benefits the external powers with the ability to play "king-maker", to back this or that faction and play them against each other. The theory of it goes back at least to the "circle of kings" scenarios described by Kautilya in his 3rd century BC Arthasastra.
What complicates such strategies is that there is not necessarily a single king-maker, several can play that game, and in that case promoting instability may backfire, benefiting a rival.

In our modern world, we called "superpowers" to those players with the ability to reach almost anywhere in the world and influence who ruled those unstable countries. While there were tho, at least the threat of instability backfiring remained and could rein interventionist impulses. Now...

Stability, otoh, allows for independent policy to be carried out. Which may be good (in the case of allies) or not good at all (in the case of enemies or chosen targets for exploitation).
 
So the British and French intelligence services were responsible for the rise of the Young Turks? Could've fooled me. I imagine that's why the British and French rejected alliances with the CUP-led Ottoman state on the eve of war in 1914, then, huh?

The destabilization of the Balkans is what the French and the British sought by helping the Young Turks rise to power. By the eve of world war I, this had already been achieved. The French and the British had no need for the Turks then. There are parallels in more recent history you know. In the case of Saddam, the US provided weapons and support in their war against Iran, which just had a revolution which ousted the pro-american Shah, but did not hesitate to turn on Sadam over the fictitious weapons of mass destruction. There is even the belief that the US prevented the United Nations from speaking out against the mustard gas being used by Saddan against the Iranians during the war.
 
I guess that only proves the cynicism of the British and French manipulators, how they were willing to completely discard the Young Turks after they served their purpose.
:lol: :goodjob:
The destabilization of the Balkans is what the French and the British sought by helping the Young Turks rise to power. By the eve of world war I, this had already been achieved. The French and the British had no need for the Turks then.
You act as though the British and French actually wanted to destabilize the Balkans and that they had accomplished anything whatsoever by getting the Young Turks into power. Your sole evidence for doing so rests on the fact that many of the student elements of the CUP received schooling in Western Europe - not coincidentally, where most of the good universities were - and therefore Western European diplomats used that opportunity to brainwash them into destroying their native government? Or something? Plus Freemasons, which are usually only involved in conspiracy theories in Russia and the US?

In reality, historians of the Ottoman Empire recognize a couple of things that make this stupid Libya-Turkey analogy nonsense.

Thing 1: The 1908 revolution was an army mutiny over pay and poor conditions. It was not actually started by the CUP dilettantes in Paris and London. Elements of a loosely-CUP-affiliated organization, the OFS, did kinda ish hijack the mutiny in the sense that some of the officers leading it were also members of the OFS. But not really. At any rate, the CUP certainly didn't gain power in 1908; it didn't even want to, and did not exercise influence on state policy until 1913.

Thing 2: The British and French gained exactly nothing by the 1908 mutiny or even the 1909 deposition of Abdulhamid II, and arguably lost ground in the Balkans because of it. While there was disarray in the Balkans, it benefited Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria (neither of which were British allies) and might potentially have benefited Russia in ways that the British would have been unable to agree with (namely, Izvolsky's crazy Straits project). The British and French liked the old Ottoman regime of Abdulhamid: the sultan had given Britain effective control of the Ottoman navy, massively indebted his state to British and French investors in the name of freeing it from the control of Western powers by industrialization, and was too ineffective to pose a threat to British control of Cyprus and Egypt. Britain and France's foreign services did not appreciate the new regime, but had to work with it regardless, and due to public approval of la jeune Turquie in the West were forced to limit their public response to "hooray for democracy" even though the whole thing had cock all to do with democracy.

Thing 3: The mutiny certainly did not impact the actual Turkish policy vis a vis the Berlin-Baghdad Railway. Even if it would have done, the British and French had zero reason to stop the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, because the consortium that funded it employed more Anglo-French investors than German; on the board of the company sat not only Germans, British, and French, but gratuitous Russians. It was not, in reality, an imperialistic German project to control Iraq or some BS like that, and the British and French were not, in fact, interested in blocking it - although they were interested in pretending to feel threatened by it so they could get more Brits and French on the board after the project started to show some small signs of potential success. (Initially, British and French investors had passed on the grounds that the Ottomans were a terrible bet, and an Ottoman railroad project across some pretty horrible terrain was an even worse bet.)

So we don't have motive. We also don't have opportunity, because it was a goddamn revolt over pay that started all of this (should be an immutable Law of History or something: soldiers mutiny over pay and conditions, not revolutionary ideals, 90% of the time). We're left with the fact that people who did not cause the mutiny went to school in the West, so clearly this was all a Western conspiracy. Excellent reasoning!
 
you seem to have a very specific defintion of the word precursor. Then again maybe we dont have too wait too long for the massacres to begin.

They already have. Ask the Coptic Christians what they think of the Arab Spring.
 
:lol: :goodjob:

You act as though the British and French actually wanted to destabilize the Balkans and that they had accomplished anything whatsoever by getting the Young Turks into power. Your sole evidence for doing so rests on the fact that many of the student elements of the CUP received schooling in Western Europe - not coincidentally, where most of the good universities were - and therefore Western European diplomats used that opportunity to brainwash them into destroying their native government? Or something? Plus Freemasons, which are usually only involved in conspiracy theories in Russia and the US?

In reality, historians of the Ottoman Empire recognize a couple of things that make this stupid Libya-Turkey analogy nonsense.

Thing 1: The 1908 revolution was an army mutiny over pay and poor conditions. It was not actually started by the CUP dilettantes in Paris and London. Elements of a loosely-CUP-affiliated organization, the OFS, did kinda ish hijack the mutiny in the sense that some of the officers leading it were also members of the OFS. But not really. At any rate, the CUP certainly didn't gain power in 1908; it didn't even want to, and did not exercise influence on state policy until 1913.


You weaken, contradict and confuse your point in Thing 1 with this:

Elements of a loosely-CUP-affiliated organization, the OFS, did kinda ish hijack the mutiny in the sense that some of the officers leading it were also members of the OFS. But not really

What are you trying to say here? Do you agree or not that the young Turks led the revolt of 1908? Because there are those who are much more clear, much less confused on the issue:

It was thus in 1891 in Geneva that the exiled Ottomans formed the Committee of Union and Progress (the official name behind the Young Turk movement). However, on the territory of the Ottoman Empire the CUP established itself as a clandestine organization in Salonika in 1906. It was these Macedonian branches of the CUP that had had a decisive role in the revolution of July 1908, which started in fact in the Macedonian town of Resen near Lake Prespa.

Dejan Stjepanovic

Why the hell does everybody call it the Young Turk Revolution, if the young Turks had almost nothing to do with it? What do the historians from whose consensus your analysis is based on call the Young Turk revolution? Am gonna deal with your two other things soon enough.
 
You weaken, contradict and confuse your point in Thing 1 with this:

Elements of a loosely-CUP-affiliated organization, the OFS, did kinda ish hijack the mutiny in the sense that some of the officers leading it were also members of the OFS. But not really

What are you trying to say here? Do you agree or not that the young Turks led the revolt of 1908?
I thought I did make that clear: while elements of the OFS also led the mutiny, they did not cause it. They managed to convince the rest of the mutineers to adopt some of the more minor elements of the CUP platform, but by and large the 1908 mutiny was organized around issues of pay. It did not change anything at all in substantive terms in Ottoman politics. Abdulhamid was still in charge. The same people that had run his autocracy ran the new legislature. The CUP's members did not sniff power.

The most critical of the OFS members' 1908 demands that was implemented had nothing to do with the CUP. Kemal and others like him were products of military academies and harbored a general dislike of Abdulhamid's practice of promoting ex-rankers into the officer corps. So the mutineers demanded the discharge of many of these mustangs, who by 1909 were loitering around Constantinople angry about their changed circumstances. Combined with a good dose of proto-Islamic fundamentalism, they staged a countermutiny with some of the Constantinople guard battalions, whereupon Kemal and Mahmud Sevket formed an "Action Army" out of elements of the 1908 mutineers, marched on Constantinople, and used the countermutiny as an excuse to force Abdulhamid to abdicate and to enact wide-ranging changes in the political system.

Even then, the CUP did not control much of anything in the Ottoman state. For some of its members, like Kemal, this was because they wanted to act disinterested to promote their qualities as "neutral" arbiters and hold the balance of authority. As it happened, this did not actually work. In concrete terms, one CUP affiliate, Sevket, did get into government in 1909 as war minister, but he had little influence on policy vis-a-vis, say, railroads, let alone foreign policy or finances.

It was not until 1913 that Enver's coup d'etat put the CUP into real power, giving it control of both the civilian government and the grand vezirate. So Britain and France's Cunning Plan to destabilize the Balkans and control the Ottomans from the shadows (to make what amounted to nonexistent gains) took some five years to reach fruition, and did so at the hands of one of the few rabidly pro-German (!) members of the CUP as a result of circumstances that were virtually impossible to predict in 1908 (namely, Enver's reputation gained from his role in fighting the Italians in Libya).

What a brilliant conspiracy the Anglo-French ran. Really. Sheer genius.
mghani said:
Because there are those who are much more clear, much less confused on the issue:

It was thus in 1891 in Geneva that the exiled Ottomans formed the Committee of Union and Progress (the official name behind the Young Turk movement). However, on the territory of the Ottoman Empire the CUP established itself as a clandestine organization in Salonika in 1906. It was these Macedonian branches of the CUP that had had a decisive role in the revolution of July 1908, which started in fact in the Macedonian town of Resen near Lake Prespa.

Dejan Stjepanovic
I am sorry if you consider all explanations that are not short, pat, and overly simplistic to be "confused". Some of us actually care about the facts, though.
mghani said:
Why the hell does everybody call it the Young Turk Revolution, if the young Turks had almost nothing to do with it? What do the historians from whose consensus your analysis is based on call the Young Turk revolution?
Why does everybody call the Nazis and Falange "Fascist" when they were in fact not Fascist at all? Why does everybody, in discussing German war planning in World War I, refer to a "Schlieffen Plan" that did not exist? Obviously because "everybody" is not well informed about they things they talk about.

Most modern historians would deny that the Young Turk "revolution" took place, or at the very least that it took place in 1908. Some might extend the timeline, saying that the mutiny of 1908 was the opening act in a Young Turk Revolution that went all the way up to 1920. Some would move the revolution back to Kemal and Sevket's "Action Army" of 1909, or to Enver's coup in 1913. They would certainly not say that it happened in 1908 and was done with in the same year and woohoo the Young Turks had firm and certain political control of the Ottoman state from that point onward.
 
Why does everybody call the Nazis and Falange "Fascist" when they were in fact not Fascist at all?
I'm pretty comfortable calling the Falange (that is the Spanish Phalanx of the Assemblies of the National Syndicalist Offensive) Fascist. In fact, outside of Italy, it's probably the group I'm most comfortable calling Fascist. The real issue is why we call Franco's Spain Falangist when the Falangists were completely marginalized when he forced them into the Spanish Traditionalist Phalanx of the Assemblies of National-Syndicalist Offensive, perhaps in an effort to win the "Most contradictory party name ever" Award.
 
Depends on your definition of "fascist", I guess.
 
Wide definitions of terms like "Fascist" and "Communist" are the main reason popular political science sucks. Stick with the real ones.
I'm pretty comfortable calling the Falange (that is the Spanish Phalanx of the Assemblies of the National Syndicalist Offensive) Fascist. In fact, outside of Italy, it's probably the group I'm most comfortable calling Fascist. The real issue is why we call Franco's Spain Falangist when the Falangists were completely marginalized when he forced them into the Spanish Traditionalist Phalanx of the Assemblies of National-Syndicalist Offensive, perhaps in an effort to win the "Most contradictory party name ever" Award.
I approve of this slightly modified formula since it doesn't really change my argument, replacing "Falange" with "Francoist Spain".
 
Must be language issues again. Nobody in Russia uses the term "fascism" to refer solely to "classical" Italian-style Fascism.
 
Depends on your definition of "fascist", I guess.

It more has to do with your definition of Falangist. In the 1930s the Falangist party was showing all the signs and more importantly ideas of Fascism. It was on the Fascist Left even. It was definitely a radically nationalist third way totalitarian system. Like I said, if you strike these guys out, Fascism probably never formed a party outside of Italy.

However they did terrible in the 1936 election, and their focus on extra-parliamentary action didn't get much farther then unionizing the taxi-drivers of Madrid. In fact they lost even more support in the lead up to the war. This kind of helped them a little though, because their party was left with an ultra-dedicated kernel that was prepared to use violence, so they played a disproportionate role to a party of a few thousand people.

Still, the vast bulk of the "Nationalists" were either Carlists or Royalists. Franco becomes the strong man leading them, mainly because of his military credibility and his perception as an outsider, uninterested in politics who could "fairly arbitrate" between the factions. Of course, Franco was very interested in politics so he forced these groups to join into a 'Traditionalist-Falangist' party, a Frankenstein monster specifically designed so that it could not function and act coherently without Franco, because it combined the most wildly contradictory of members. Obviously the Falangists, who numbered a few thousand before the war, were very good at looking for firefighter and would have fit in just as well with the Republicans was more then anyone else, were even weaker now, and Franco had zero sympathy for them.
 
It's fascism, but only one type of it.

Anyway, let's all agree that you may use any term, as long as you explain what do you mean by it.
 
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