TNT Files - Term 6

azzaman333 · Mar 31, 2006

fe3333au said:
April fool

It's just that you sounded like him as well

That's part of the fun.

classical_hero · Mar 31, 2006

fe3333au said:
April fool

It's just that you sounded like him as well

I would never say that about an ally.

Chamnix · Mar 31, 2006

Obviously everyone is awestruck by my thought of forgetting the GL Gambit, so I will continue the discussion by myself (either that or everyone missed it since it was on the previous page). I believe the ball is back in our court so we have to do something.

Option 1 – Continue with the gambit as planned. TNT requested some modifications to clauses 4 and 5 so they don’t go bankrupt. It should be easy enough – instead of saying MIA will give TNT all techs for 300 gold each, we say TNT has the option to buy any or all techs that MIA has completed at that point for 300 gold each. The techs will be given immediately upon request, payment must be provided within 30 turns of the abandonment of the plan.

Option 2 – Forget the whole idea. If we do this, it will probably have to be done with a chat. Fortunately Feaurius seems to be able to contact donsig fairly regularly. I would suggest we say that our beancounters have analyzed everyone's apparent economic abilities and have determined that it is extremely unlikely the Great Library will give more than 2 techs, and there is a good chance it will only give one. If they really want to go ahead with the Plan, then we will also (we’re not the ones wasting 400 shields), but if they want to reconsider we’ll understand (we have the alliance’s best interests at heart!). However, we definitely want to sign the peace portion regardless (and we’d also like to consider Theology and Chivalry for Engineering and 60 turns worth of gems).

After trying to analyze what is likely to be the result in 30 turns, I’ve come to the conclusion that the GL Gambit is very good for TNT and neutral for MIA if the Great Library provides Gunpowder. If it only provides Invention, then I think it is bad for both. So if we are going ahead with this plan, it is better for TNT to delay the Great Library as long as reasonably possible to maximize the chances that KISSNuts have traded Gunpowder. I think the target should be for TNT to complete the GL at very close to the same time as MIA completes Astronomy (after Education and Banking). Any beancounters want to estimate when that will be? The problem is I’m not even sure that will be a long enough delay. In the time it takes us to do 3 techs, do we think the Dnuts can do 2 1/2 (so that they have something to trade for Gunpowder)? I’m very skeptical.

Chamnix · Mar 31, 2006

Continuing my monologue…

The main basis for my conclusion I think is that TNT hopefully should be able to get Invention and Gunpowder in around 30-35 turns without the Great Library, so in either case, we will get those 2 techs. The only difference is how many techs we give TNT for them (the GL we give everything, without the GL it’s probably 1 for 1 with an occasionally tech for luxury deal thrown in). Since getting rid of the GL plan yields more certainty and gets us luxuries, I am in favor of trying to convince TNT that we think they are better off not using their shields on a wonder that will get at most 2 techs (and possibly only 1).

The downside of course is that means the Great Library is still out there for a KISSNut to build. That is certainly a concern, but if Dnuts research to Education, then presumably they will trade those techs to KISS for military techs, and the Great Library will become obsolete without ever being built.

peter grimes · Mar 31, 2006

I'm glad you took the time to flesh out some of the details of your thinking. I now see why you're so pessimistic about the utility of the GL.

But it seems like there is a lot resting on the past performance of KISS and DNUTs research regimens. I'm not convinced that KISS and DNUTs (the Agros) won't turn around in 5 turns, notice us, and then go flat out in conjunction with eachother.

KISS has a style that is very high-handed: "We know best, do what we want because we're not going to do what you want us to because that is, by definition, a poorer strategem since it came from you; and we already told you how we know best!"

It may not work on DNUTS, but Dnuts might realize that MIA is starting to sweep up. The problem with the Agros joining is I think they are stronger together than the Alliance of Science can safely handle.

But in the end, if we are all researching the same things, then the GL is useless, and will only hurt TNT's economy by delaying marketplace and library.

The trick will be to let them off lightly. I think the 'bean-counter skepticism' is a good approach.

Chamnix · Mar 31, 2006

peter grimes said:
But it seems like there is a lot resting on the past performance of KISS and DNUTs research regimens. I'm not convinced that KISS and DNUTs (the Agros) won't turn around in 5 turns, notice us, and then go flat out in conjunction with eachother.

You are absolutely right about this. But I do think that KISS and DNuts are operating in conjunction with each other already – they are going for different research paths and planning to exchange. At this point what would make them combine their efforts on just the military leg? I’m not sure – doing that is essentially an all-or-nothing gamble. By ignoring the top leg, they would be betting that they can destroy us with cavalry before we get to the Industrial Ages. I don’t think KISS would do that because I think they would realize that killing us completely would not be that easy.

So how fast will their research be? So far it is not impressive, but it is very hard to extrapolate since we don’t know why it hasn’t been impressive so far (spending cash on other things, deliberately choosing slow research, general economic malaise, etc.). Based on the supposition that they are not gifting techs anymore (DNuts don’t have Feudalism yet, but who knows – they might next turn), the number of techs granted by the Great Library will be based on the slower researcher, and it is hard to imagine them both being a lot faster than expected.

General_W · Mar 31, 2006

On the bright side…

KISS/Nuts are not behaving as smart as they should be!
Our fears of a massive cavalry attack in 50 years are looking far less scary.

Since TNT is already invested in a wonder pre-build, we could suggest that they save 100 shields and pick up the Knights Templar instead. The Crusaders (5-3-1) will serve as free pikemen on defense with a wicked counter-punch if necessary. This wonder may actually prove to be more valuable to the TNT/MIA alliance than the GL!
It's not a great wonder – but it may be just the ticket for TNT. The shield cost will easily pay for itself before it expires (only 50 turns to recoup the shield value in pikemen, 40 to get in it MDI… though a Crusader is better than BOTH those units) and frankly, I'd be happy to see TNT get a little help with their defenses.

Either way – it may be best to have a chat with them, but if Fe can't catch them, here's a quick proposal for a letter…

Dear TNT,

We hate to even bring this up…

But our bean counters have been re-examining the Great Library deal. (I know! I know!)

Anyway, based on the current research trends of KISS and Dnuts, it is becoming increasingly apparent that while they ARE working together, they are splitting their research up both sides of the Middle Ages tree.
What does all this mean?
It means it is extremely unlikely the Great Library will give more than 2 techs, and there is a good chance it will only give one.

Now – we can still go ahead with the plan, but it seems like a tremendous waste of shields for you. If you want to reconsider this deal, that's fine by us – after all, everyone wants to do what is best for the Alliance.
If we do decide to go ahead with the Great Library – we'll certainly need to reconsider the timing, and delay building it for as long as we safely can… of course, this only ties up an important city for you even longer, and that's certainly not ideal.

We're thinking you might want to consider using your current pre-build and go for something like The Knights Templar… those Crusader bad boys (5-3-1) are pretty sweet and we're sure would make a fine addition to your defensive and counter-offensive forces (and it lasts till Steam Power!).

Anyway – we recognize that this is kind of a large bomb to be dropping so late in these negotiations – but we just this turn found out the true nature of the Nuts and KISS research paths.

No matter what, we think we should go ahead and sign the peace deal part of the treaty here very soon. No reason to hold that up.

Looking forward to hearing back from you!
Send any hate mail to our bean-counters.

All the best,
Your friends and Allies,
MIA

Thoughts?

Chamnix · Mar 31, 2006

I have to say... you write a nice letter, General_W!

I'm not all that worried about their "pre-build" if you can call it that. They mentioned they were using their capital, and nothing appears on F7, so apparently they don't even have the 120 shields for a colosseum yet. They may even be able to switch to a marketplace without wasting anything. Although I agree the Knight's Templar would be a good choice for us them, I don't know if we want to suggest it formally - they might feel we are being too pushy, and they know they have plenty of potential wonders to choose from. That is probably something that comes across better in a chat.

And instead of "back out", I might use a word like "reconsider". "Back out" sounds a little demeaning to me. But it looks good if Fe3333au can't talk to them. Does this mean we have agreement that we are better off with the GL Gambit? I'm not trying to force this on anyone, and if anyone wants to poke holes in my argument, please do.

peter grimes · Mar 31, 2006

I like the letter, G_W! I agree with most of what Chamnix said, but I don't think we need to break it to them in a chat, as you have a real buttery way of forcing the horse-pill down their throats

I think possession of the KT would really be decisive for them. They need all the help they can get tactically. Of course, just having a steady stream of units isn't worth anything if you a) dont' use them effectively, and b) lose the city!

Certainly we should wait for more input, but I see no reason to not send the letter in 6 hours or so, with a little editing as per Chamnix.

General_W · Mar 31, 2006

Well, I think Chamnix's logic is good - the GL just dosn't make much sense anymore.

I've changed "back out" to "reconsider"

But I think the refrence to the Knights should remain. We're not telling them... just offering a suggestion. (one that we would like to see them take... it IS in their best interest after all)

For a diplomacy shift this big, I really think Fe ought to expressly approve it - and probably be the one to send it.

Thoughts?

Here is my edited propsal...

Dear TNT,

We hate to even bring this up…

But our bean counters have been re-examining the Great Library deal. (I know! I know!)

Anyway, based on the current research trends of KISS and Dnuts, it is becoming increasingly apparent that while they ARE working together, they are splitting their research up both sides of the Middle Ages tree.
What does all this mean?
It means it is extremely unlikely the Great Library will give more than 2 techs, and there is a good chance it will only give one.

Now – we can still go ahead with the plan, but it seems like a tremendous waste of shields for you. If you want to reconsider this deal, that's fine by us – after all, everyone wants to do what is best for the Alliance.
If we do decide to go ahead with the Great Library – we'll certainly need to reconsider the timing, and delay building it for as long as we safely can… of course, this only ties up an important city for you even longer, and that's certainly not ideal.

We're thinking you might want to consider using your current pre-build and go for something like The Knights Templar… those Crusader bad boys (5-3-1) are pretty sweet and we're sure would make a fine addition to your defensive and counter-offensive forces (and it lasts till Steam Power!).

Anyway – we recognize that this is kind of a large bomb to be dropping so late in these negotiations – but we just this turn found out the true nature of the Nuts and KISS research paths.

No matter what, we think we should go ahead and sign the peace deal part of the treaty here very soon. No reason to hold that up.

Looking forward to hearing back from you!
Send any hate mail to our bean-counters.

All the best,
Your friends and Allies,
MIA

fe3333au · Mar 31, 2006

One thing that has not been mentioned is the ramifications of either KISS or Nuts building the GL ...

Correct me if I am wrong, if a GL is built it gives ALL techs known by two civs until neutalised by Education.

So when it is built ... ALL middle age techs doubly known are collected apart from those that require Education as a pre-requisite?

So it sounds like a logical tactic for them the build it, if we get too far ahead.

I for one am not comfortable if the above scenario is the case.

Thoughts ...

I will hold off on sending for 24 hours (Doesn't matter in the long run) ... But will endeavour to chat this out with TNT in the interim.

End result could well be that TNT hide Knights Templar with a Great Library ... because that wonder may be a good fallback option for TNT either way.

General_W · Mar 31, 2006

You're exactly right Fe
- but the problem is that KISS and Dnuts appear to be working on separate halves of the tech tree... meaning that even if KISS or Nuts do build the GL, the don't have much to gain from it.
Only thing that would make it useful for them, is if they stop their current pattern and focus on one branch of the tree.

Specifically, Dnuts appear to be researching the peaceful techs at this time, with KISS grabbing the more military oriented ones.
For whatever reason, KISS/Nuts are not working together that closely, and appear to want to just trade techs.

Still – it seems like a prudent plan to have TNT working on some kind of wonder. If KISS/Nuts wakes up and start cooperating better… then it would make sense again for TNT to drop back into the GL.
However – if Nuts continue on their current path to Education… TNT will be much better off with the Knights Templar.

So it’s a bit of a pickle. But based on current research trends, the GL is not a wise build. (And, oddly enough, will cost MIA the most)

Anyway - hopefully you can chat with TNT about it anyway. I just wanted to make sure you really understood why the GL has become much less appealing.
Hopefully I made sense.

fe3333au · Apr 1, 2006

All I'm saying is that it is too early to abandon GL ... KISS only just gained Feudalism.

Therefore I suggest adding a clause about mutal agreement to abandoning GL gambit.

General_W · Apr 1, 2006

That would be great… but if TNT is going to end up dropping the Great Library, then they should really be researching the military techs to trade with us… not stockpiling gold.

Unfortunately… it’s mutually exclusive! (If we want to get the most out of this alliance.)

We need to figure out what is most likely, and plan accordingly.

We thought it was most likely that KISS/Nuts would focus on military techs… making the GL a great plan.

Now there is good evidence to suggest that KISS/Nuts will research broadly… making the GL a bad plan.

I’m not sure how we can effectively hedge our bets… unless you think we can out-tech KISS and Nuts combined while TNT contributes almost nothing?

General_W · Apr 1, 2006

Had a great Chat with the Most excellent Fe3333au...

Discussed the merits of the Great Library gambit with TNT.
Posted here if you're interested!

Spoiler :

fe3333au · Apr 1, 2006

Chat with TNT

fe3333au: hey
donsigw: hello

Adding a clause to treaty
fe3333au: we are thinking of adding a clause about mutal agreement to abondon GL ... we have to await developments but it seems KISS have not yet passed on feudalism
donsigw: what would the mutual clause be like?
fe3333au: so perhaps with a clause like that you could switch to Knights Templar
fe3333au: Ummm ... if both parties agree the GL build could be switched to whatever you want.

Question about Techs
donsigw: what about the techs though? We'd have one?
fe3333au: Well we can sell tech at a very good rate

Reasoning
fe3333au: a letter will be sent to explain better ... just that if they are not swapping techs before GL is built ... negates the reason to build in the first place.
donsigw: ok - as long as it's a mutual thing and not unilateral. The only unilateral one should be if we get attacked
fe3333au: and in the long run it may be a better use of your resources ... We have time to nut these things out anyway ... excuse the pun

KISS and Nuts are they united?
donsigw: so, why wouldn't they be trading techs?
fe3333au: This has only been discussed due to Nuts not having Feudalism yet ... so it is still early days ... but we will send you something
donsigw: KISS prolly asking too much
fe3333au: Possible reason they are not as tight as we thought

<I think TNT are going for Knights to get aggressive>
fe3333au: However I think they could be going for Chivalry ... It requires Monotheism (I think)
fe3333au: Suffice to say we are currently working on the next draft of the Treaty
donsigw: Yeah, I'm sure the Nuts want chivalry.
fe3333au: Be a big surprise when you get it :-D
donsigw: surprise with the treaty?
fe3333au: No ... surprise when Nuts get Chiv and think they have it over you ... when suddenly on your command ... we send it to you

<Are KISS and Nuts trading techs?>
donsigw: Do you think they both researched engineering?
fe3333au: I don't think they are researching the same techs ... they have a loose understanding ... but at the moment they have a bit of catching up to do
donsigw: but they both have engineering - I figured they traded something
fe3333au: Monarchy?
donsigw: that doens't seem to make sense - we'ree all republics now
fe3333au: something that benefits KISS ... having religious trait
donsigw: maybe the nutters researched engineering and traded it to the Galls for republic?
fe3333au: Yeah possible ... don't know .. we got republic from KISS when we were buddies ... and were ripped off IMO

<Bit of History>
fe3333au: KISS were slow burning on Republic while stockpiling much gold ... and then planted embassies on us all

Nuts to give Mono to KISS
donsigw: I'm thinking they treaded engineering for republic and now the Gallas are waiting on the Nuts to finsih monotheism so they can swap fuedalism for mono.
fe3333au: I think so too ... it will be interesting to see what they go for next
donsigw: well, if they want chivalry we're not making it an y cheaper for them
fe3333au: exactly ... good call on your part

GL gambit not abandoned yet
fe3333au: so I'm not saying to abandon the GL gambit ... but if we add a clasue about mutal agreement to swap to something else it will be better for us both
donsigw: I can't see us objecting to such a clause. I'm just not sure we'd be willing to switch out of it. We like the idea of taking that threat away from the Science Alliance. If we build the GL then there's no way they'll catch us in tech
fe3333au: That is a point I share with you ... however having such a clasue will enable us to react to changes in the game ... and in the spirit of shring information ... I thought I'd let you know of the thoughts we are having

Theology soon
donsigw: how far away are you from learning theology?
fe3333au: we have Theology in 6ish ... maybe less ... depending on the slider
donsigw: sounds like you'll have education before we finish the GL
fe3333au: Yes ... or we may go slow on Education ... not sure ... but possibly better if we get it fast, that way we can neutralise it in case they beat us in the build ... Whatever happens we will be at parity

How is it for TNT
fe3333au: So how is it for your empire?
donsigw: ?
donsigw: we're a republic now
fe3333au: How are the builds going and spread on new cities?

<What we know about others>
fe3333au: KISS are spreading fast ... Nuts are moderate ... We are closing the gaps in the border between KISS and us
donsigw: We're trying to settle our western frontier now. We want some coastal cities so we can have a better chance of seeing any purple or dark green ships coming our way
fe3333au: Good move

<Diplomacy with TNT>
fe3333au: Have Nuts replied to you yet?
donsigw: No. They proposed a 5 turn peace extension but we haven't signed anything yet ... so we built another set of walls last turn.
fe3333au: walls and pikes are very good

Document will come soon
fe3333au: So we will send you something very soon ... do you know who has the save?

Defence and beyond
donsigw: should do nicely agains mounted warriors ... but hopefully we won't go there
fe3333au: yes hopefully ... and by the time they get aggressive it may be too late for them as you will be well fortified and together we will be way ahead in tech ... and then we may think about becoming aggressive ourselves ... who knows
donsigw: things could get rather interesting is we get the Gl and can zipp off to military tradition
fe3333au: yes

Who's turn?
fe3333au: Do you know who has the save?
donsigw: it is KISS's turn
fe3333au: ok ... good
donsigw: After chatting with you last night I forgot to post that I had played our turn
fe3333au: no you mentioned it
donsigw: Yeah but I posted it about ten hours after playing it and way after our 24 hours was up ... oh - doh - but you knew I played it ... I see ... I've been up too long I guess
fe3333au: was that the one about not sending Engineering?
donsigw: I think so ... I was waiting on playing hoping our deal would be finalized so I could send it ... but it seems now you're not in such a hurry to get engineering
fe3333au: at the moment not a big rush ... better to get the treaty worded the best way possible
donsigw: yeah - and like we said - if you get attacked we can sent it over without the treaty

Treaty deadline
donsigw: we should get this treaty done in a few turns though
fe3333au: absolutely
donsigw: our pre-build will be up shortly and if this deal falls through we want to know before the pre-build is up
fe3333au: what is deadline?
donsigw: about five turns. we can stall the prebuild a little by reducing shields and upping food - but we don't want to be counter productinve to the gambit
fe3333au: that's good ... we will certainly have something way before then
donsigw: ok - well, I've got to go get some sleep
donsigw: good night

Classical Hero's fantastic April Fool's on Regentman ... now removed
fe3333au: before you go ... Classical hero did a good April Fools ... He requested to join Epsilon in MTDG cIV and was accepted and added twice on the list
donsigw: whatr was it? ... twice on the same team or on two teams?
fe3333au: twice on same team ...
donsigw: lol
fe3333au: better if he had asked to join another LOL
fe3333au: anyway happy April fools day ... be careful out there
donsigw: I'm still learning CIv III - don't quite understan all of cIV yet
fe3333au: I don't even have it LOL
donsigw: I guess it's after midnight but April Fools is tomorrow (after I sleep)
donsigw: I'm out
fe3333au: cya
donsigw signed off at 6:17:15 PM.

Chamnix · Apr 1, 2006

donsigw: I think so ... I was waiting on playing hoping our deal would be finalized so I could send it ... but it seems now you're not in such a hurry to get engineering
fe3333au: at the moment not a big rush

Personally, I am in a hurry for Engineering - I am tired of wasting worker and settler turns every time we cross a river. It is costing us.

donsigw: things could get rather interesting is we get the Gl and can zipp off to military tradition

I'm not sure what he means by this - does he think the GL will give Military Tradition? The thing to realize with the GL is that KISSNuts will neutralize it without giving any more techs once it has been built so that the only techs it will give are the ones that 2 civs know at the time it is built - it will not stay in operation for long.

I have to admit, I never seriously considered the possibility that DNuts are heading for Chivalry and not doing the top half of the tree, but it is possible. That might change things again, but it probably wouldn't - the GL will still be built too early to get much from the bottom portion of the tree which is all we care about.

fe3333au · Apr 1, 2006

I think the comment about Military Tradition ... was a comment about the Alliance of Science beating all to this tech.

I hear what you say about Engineering ... appologies :blush:

I guess more incentive to get them the proposal

Chamnix · Apr 1, 2006

I guess there are 2 distinct reasons to consider TNT's building the Great Library.

1. To get free techs. This is only worthwhile if we get more free techs from the Great Library than we would get by having TNT research. Although it requires a lot of guesswork regarding TNT's research rate, timing of the GL build, KISSNuts research rate, and KISSNuts willingness to trade with each other, my best guess is still that we will get at least as many techs from TNT researching as from the Great Library although I would love to hear if anyone disagrees.

2. To prevent KISSNuts from getting the GL. This one is harder to figure. If the KISSNuts will both have Education reasonably soon, then this is useless. However, until they both do have Education, we cannot afford to push our tech pace, and this is a real concern.

No solution again, just trying to lay out the arguments for further discussion...

General_W · Apr 1, 2006

Chamnix said:
my best guess is still that we will get at least as many techs from TNT researching as from the Great Library although I would love to hear if anyone disagrees.

If this is true - the the GL may still be better... just for the insurance!

Do you think TNT would tell us what their economic output is?
Then we could roughly calculate what techs they could get vs. how long it will take them to build the GL.

TNT Files - Term 6

meh

In whom I trust

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...

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Deity

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Deity

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Councilor & Merlot Noble

Deity

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Deity

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