Tour de France 2011

As much as I'm desperate for Evans to win , it has been inspirational ( to my untrained eye) to watch Voekler try to hang in there . He is definitely my second pick and I assume most peoples sentimental favourite .

My heart had sunk today when that lead got out to 4 minutes and I was quite angry at what I felt was the lack of initiative showed by Evans . As he started to claw back the seconds it was very exciting .

What is a realistic deficit heading into the TT that I can expect Evans to make up ? Can I take it as a given that he would pick up SOME time from the Schleks and Voekler ?
 
Because of Andy's ride today, the grupetto finished out of the time limit. 88 riders would've been eliminated, but they were spared at the cost of 20 points, which puts Cavendish just 15 ahead of Rojas now.
 
Rugbyleaguefan said:
What is a realistic deficit heading into the TT that I can expect Evans to make up ? Can I take it as a given that he would pick up SOME time from the Schleks and Voekler ?
Click to expand...
Normally, Evans should be able to gain a minute or more on Schleck. But everyone thought he would be able to win it in 2008 as well and then he blew it. Voeckler is not good at all in TT.
 
I'd say 1 minute and 30 seconds for Evans on TT. But Evans worked just as hard as Andy today and tomorrow's ride looks better suited for Andy. I think Andy can stretch his lead out by another minute or two.

Contador better get more of the tainted meat and fast if he has any hopes of winning.
 
Rugbyleaguefan said:
it has been inspirational ( to my untrained eye) to watch Voekler try to hang in there . He is definitely my second pick and I assume most peoples sentimental favourite .
Click to expand...

Absolutely not!

According to just about every (non-french) rider and most journalists, Voekler is one of the most annoying, arrogant and vindictive people in the sport today...

But his performance so far, hanging on way beyond what he is usually capable of, has been very impressive.
 
Rugbyleaguefan said:
My heart had sunk today when that lead got out to 4 minutes and I was quite angry at what I felt was the lack of initiative showed by Evans . As he started to claw back the seconds it was very exciting .

What is a realistic deficit heading into the TT that I can expect Evans to make up ? Can I take it as a given that he would pick up SOME time from the Schleks and Voekler ?
Click to expand...
Many commentators stated that Evans was too passive, but he really was not.

Andy attacked very, very early. If Evans would have gotten him right away, Fränk would have attacked. He was between a rock and a hard place!

Andy gained two minutes while climbing the Izaord, won two minutes between the Izoard and the Galibier, whereas Evans gained two minutes back at the Galibier.

In normal cycling tactics, when a rider gains a few minutes early on, others will usually be abale to regain them later on. This is exactly what Evans did! If that does not seem to be possible, you simply congratulate the former.
The real difference was that Andy gained the extra two minutes in between. That was due to good strategy, as a team mate (Monfort) was there (sent forward) to assist him. Evans was alone. He had Contador and Sanchez to help, but they were no good. Fränk obviously didn't do too much and Voeckler simply decided to pick Evans' wheel (right decision imho).

This strategy did it! It is really is not brilliant. IIRC, Evans' team acted accordingly by sending Burghardt. But he simply couldn't follow when Posthuma (Andy's team) accelerated, whereas Monfort could.

If Evans would have decided to take the lead (of the group of followers) firmly, he probably would have been exhausted somewhere on the Galibier.


kronic said:
Normally, Evans should be able to gain a minute or more on Schleck. But everyone thought he would be able to win it in 2008 as well and then he blew it. Voeckler is not good at all in TT.
Click to expand...

Well, two week ago, I figured Voeckler wasn't any good at climbing either....
 
It's quite bizarre to work in a fairly " blokey" place like a car dealership , where right at the business end of the footy season and some big weekend games coming up , and all anyone wants to talk about is the Tour de France (I've adopted " La Tour" for extra credibility ) .

And thanks to CFC , I'm now the " go to guy " on all matters of tactics , generally blatantly plaguerising you guys .
 
Darkness said:
Absolutely not!
According to just about every (non-french) rider and most journalists, Voekler is one of the most annoying, arrogant and vindictive people in the sport today...
Click to expand...

I thought that was Evans. ;)

Rugbyleaguefan said:
What is a realistic deficit heading into the TT that I can expect Evans to make up ? Can I take it as a given that he would pick up SOME time from the Schleks and Voekler ?
Click to expand...

I'd say it is entirely possible that Andy Schleck already thinks he has enough on everybody. And it is entirely possible Evans thinks the same, so this opens up the possibility of an anti-climatic finish today. Evans can lose a minute to Fränk today and be alright, so he can focus on controlling Andy. The unknown factor is Voeckler. If Fränk attacks and Voeckler responds he'll drag everyone with him and will make the race more unpredictable and harder to control from Evans's point of view.
To answer the original question, in my opinion 1'30'' (or even 2 min) on Fränk Schleck is doable, I'm not sure on Andy. It's possible 57'' is already too much, but he'll only lose faith if Andy adds 30'' more or so.
As for Voeckler no one knows. :p As kronic says he isn't (was never) much good at TT. But he also never had to take a Tour de France TT seriously in his life. But he'll probably lose at least a few seconds more today.
 
Holy ****!!

What's happening to Cadel? Contador and Andy Schleck running away now right at the beginning at the stage, Ullrich-Pantani 1998 style.
 
What a stage, WHAT A STAGE!

As much as the Pyrenees were a dissapointment, the Alps are delightful.
 
Yeah, exciting situation. Too bad I have to leave now. :(

Oh, and Voeckler is awesome. But I'm afraid he'll have to pay at Alpe d'Huez.
 
Voeckler is going to lose all chances of a podium today.
But still admirable.
Evans is pushing deep now. Schleck earlier on seemed to be waiting to see if they had a gap big enough or not to make it worth cooperating.
It all depends on how tired everyone is going to be in the final climb, but sureley no one bar Contador was planning this this morning. :)
 
Great stage!

I think we haven't seen racing like this in a long time btw. In the sense that they ride hard but then bonk, everyone looks wasted at the end, etc. I always thought the biological passport was more of a PR exercise than anything else, but maybe, just maybe, these guys are actually consuming less juice than they used to in the Indurain and Armstrong eras. Looking at Contador and Sanchez, two top class climbers, wobbling all over the road near the end, you need to go back to the late 80s to see the last time this sort of thing was happening on a regular basis. At the very least, there's nothing in the péloton today that compares to the US Postal/Discovery train...

Rolland would have won the Tour had he been the one in Voeckler's place after that escape. :lol: Great prospect! But Voeckler too has been immense.

Finally the Schlecks were just too physically wasted to try anything meaningful at the end. I think Andy was afraid that if he tried an acceleration he wouldn't be able to follow Evans's wheel at the end. So better keep what you have and ride tempo with your rival at bay.

Normally I'd be tempted to think Schleck had done enough to win, but Evans looks fresher and stronger than he's ever looked before at the end of the 3rd week of racing. I think he'll crack the safe tomorrow. Andy's advantage is that he's in yellow so the last to start.
 
MCdread said:
Normally I'd be tempted to think Schleck had done enough to win, but Evans looks fresher and stronger than he's ever looked before at the end of the 3rd week of racing. I think he'll crack the safe tomorrow. Andy's advantage is that he's in yellow so the last to start.
Click to expand...

Normally I would agree with you, but Andy looked really, really drained after the last 2 stages. I wonder how he recovers tonight...

Evans seems the main contender right now (to me anyway). Andy has 57 seconds on him, but barring another TT collapse by Evans, I don't think he'll be recovered enough to maintain the edge on Evans.
 
Yes, Evans has THE chance to prove that he's not a loser tomorrow.
 
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