UNGY-01 Another spy attempt

[ungy]

Nicely done so far. We're getting 400% increase in GG points from those battles within our cultural borders. Monty suiciding on Hastings is great. Looking at the technology screen should be depressive at this point, but I'm sure we'll recover.

I actually didn't check but is it 400 or 300%? Usually it seems like that type of thing in civ does not compound.

I think Monte suiciding on Hastings is likely what we need to have a chance here. I've generally lost this type of game--where I got attacked early (although this wasn't that early) and I didn't have a trap like that. There is a risk that it degenerates into a slugfest which will be fatal as he will substantially outbuild us and a very long war will likely leave us too weak to handle the other AI unless there is a way to get a great kill ratio--which Hastings provides. Unfortunately we are hammer weak and our cities are kind of far away.

As for the tech--I think we'll be OK. The enormous # of Ep's we have are really worth as much or more than our tech deficit.

 

[Rusten]

GW + imperialistic is special. I am a total newbie personally when it comes to the inner mechanics of civ 4, but people with more knowledge than me have stated that when it comes to the great wall you don't get double of the initial number when you're imperialistic, but double of the 200%, which gets us to 400%. Not everything is like this though, for instance the great people pool. If philosophical and running pacifism you get 300% increase iirc.

Will have a good look at the save now and hopefully post a long-term plan before playing.

 

[Rusten]

Had a look at the save and came across an interesting scenario--would like everyone's opinion on this before I play.

Monty is lacking alphabet so we can probably achieve peace at this point. Reason why I'm considering peace is this:

We have an axeman with the possibility of a city raider upgrade and our city down there currently occupied by the chinese is only guarded by a swordsman. It's also important to note that it's size 1, which means that it can't whip another defender. Our Axeman should be able to kill that swordsman with ease and that city is probably worth the -3 diplo with QSH. He's not much liked either as he's doing a solo religion, the only one pleased is Ragnar, most of the other civs are at negative modifiers (Khmer (+)3 - 5, Mansa (+)1 - 4 and so on)

What do you guys think? Do we want to keep pushing against Montezuma's horse archers and aggressive jaguars or do we want a quiet period stealing the key techs and taking back our fish+gems+sugar city? I think it could prove to be too hard to advance into his territory, if only for the war weariness alone, but also his traits and personality. Fighting him without a tech advantage rarely ends up the way you want it to.

Considering how many units we've got already I doubt QSH will be able to give us any trouble if we go to war, especially as we're on a other landmass and he's the builder type. Our power graph is also pretty high, so it shouldn't be that hard to get peace later on for 30-50ish gold.

 

[pigswill]

how likely is Monte to accept peace for alphabet then resume war after 10-15 turns?

 

[Rusten]

Hard to say, but his attitude towards us isn't all that bad, only -1 for close borders (after peace). Best case scenario would be to bribe him into war vs QSH (cautious (+)1 - 4 attitude). We'll have a minimum of 10 turns to steal some good techs that Monty doesn't have before he gets enough on his hands again. From that point in we can use diplomacy to keep him busy with other people as he will be behind in techs.

Edit: We spy-bombed the Khmer, and they're 1 turn away from Feudalism atm. Maybe stealing that would be enough to get Monty vs QSH?
There's also the issue of not getting "we just don't like you enough" when wanting to bribe, so we might have to convert to Buddhism and suffer diplomacy with everyone. Can't say I want that, but we can have a vote on it. As far as I see there are 3 options:

1. Continue the fight with Montezuma
2. Take that city and temporary peace with Monte which will attack again soon
3: take the city and butter up Monte with bribes and war hoping to keep his eye fixed on everyone else

The latter would be easier if it wasn't for the fact that we're sharing landmass and the other AI's are across the sea.

 

[mystyfly]

I think taking our city wouldn't be that bad for us except the diplomacy penalty with QSH ('You declared war on us' and 'You razed one of our cities'). We can avoid city razing penalty by waiting till that cities' borders pop or it grows to 2. If QSH was creative that would be nice as I'd rather fight +20% defence as another Archer (or in some turns, LBows).
If we can steal Feudalism we should be ok defended vs Monty. Pushing on him to get the shrine (and the esp modifier) from Monty would be nice but I don't know if this is possible. If QSH has ABC and some techs others haven't, We could get dogpiled.
If we take peace with Monty, we must make sure we have something to bribe him. To get him to pleased, we do not have to adopt buddhism, we can also gift him something (if we have something, that is...). Then bribe him vs someone and backstab him would be nice. Both for the diplo with the other civ and for a fatal blow that neutralizes Monty.

 

[Rusten]

QSH has no techs on the others--think he's the most backwards of them all. He's researching Feudalism (eta 9) which the khmer, the only threat as to who he could bribe, already finished researching. Also, as I mentioned earlier, only 1 leader likes him (Ragnar) and Ragnar already has enough on his hands, so he's not bribable. I think QSH will be behind all game, so I'm not so worried as to upsetting him. If an other civ settled there we would not have this discussion, but as it's the weakest Civ that nobody likes it could be worth it. That city will bring in so much commerce in the long run.

 

[shyuhe]

Khmer may attack QSH in the long run anyways since they're on the same landmass as far as I can tell (and close borders). If we raze QSH's city, we'll need a settler to reclaim the spot. It's tempting but we'll also have to build a few boats to defend our borders if we declare on QSH.

I think taking peace with Monty then bribing him against QSH after we declare war on QSH will work. Monty is bribable when he's cautious I think. The bribing price is a lot cheaper if you're already at war with the civ.

 

[druidravi]

Lurker comment

You need more than an axe to take that city. You will have odds of 5 vs 6/(1-0.1-0.25+0.5+0.2) or 7.1 vs 6 around 70% odds

Also after you capture Monty's shrine you could send spread Buddhism into your target city for the religion discount for tech stealing .

Early Infiltration works great. It reduces the cost for viewing research so much you are able to view all AI's research very early. I did not know about the Great Wall multiplier to Imperial's GG bonus . Nice game

 

[pigswill]

@ Rusten. I'm kind of curious as to why you're so intent on that city site. It may be my relative inexperience but gems, silk and fish and a bunch of coastal tiles don't appear to have the makings of a super-city.

If possible I'd rather we focus on Monte's capital and then sue for peace. IIRC our great spy has infilitrated Khmer. Sury and Monte should be the focus of our attention and Qin's city is not a short term priority as far as I can see (though I'm open to be persuaded by logic).

 

[Rusten]

@pigswill; it's not the coastal tiles I'm after, but the 7 riverside tiles (excluding the one we settle on). The gems tile alone is 8 commerce per turn, and the others will also be very very high. It will grow easily due to the fish and sugar and loads of riverside+financial = must have (maybe I have gone over to obsession, but I hate to see such superb cities taken away from me). If we get the city we'll have a better choke point too navy-wise. Fish+sugar means we can whip infrastructure and regrow quickly, gems and riverside cottages mean an awful lot of commerce and riverside+coastal means health will never be a problem (so I was contemplating putting moai statues there as it will grow to cap easily).

@druidravi; sure, there's the risk of losing (only 3 out of 10) but even if we do lose we have a bigger stack of units ready to take it in 3-4 turns formerly dedicated to Montezuma. Being able to take the city is of no worry, the diplomacy is.

Both of you seem to suggest going after Montezuma's shrine, that's just nuts and impossible at this point. Even if we manage to break through his other cities and get to the capital can you imagine what its cultural defense will be like? And let me remind you, we do not have construction for siege. Getting that shrine is impossible at this time even if we continue the war. Our commerce output is kinda low, so a period of restructuring couldn't hurt, even if Montezuma re-declares and the QSH bribe fails.

Seems we have mixed feelings, so maybe we should let the team leader decide?

 

[ungy]

Well I certainly agree we're not going to get Monte's shrine anytime soon.

We have a general problem with him as a neighbor with our variant. My general strategy for someone like that is to wait if at all possible until I have a tech advantage--he's going to way outbuild us in terms of units and his start with agg--also he benefits from a mass of jungle which helps his weak spot--the tendency to build the jag.

I also think we can take the Qin city anytime we want.

That said I think if we can get peace with Monte we should take it--at best we could let him crash a few times then sneak in and take his gems city to the S. At worst we could basically lose.

So I'd vote for trying to settle with Monte maybe taking Buddhism and trying to buddy up to him--then might as well take qin sooner rather than later.

 

[Rusten]

Ok, I opened the save and Monty did accept peace for alphabet. He's still annoyed though, even with -1 modifier, so I think we will adopt buddhism indeed. Will attack QSH once I get some axemen from Nottingham just in case the 70% would roll in the AI's favour. Will play the rest of my set as well, updating later.

 

[Rusten]

turn 121 -> 131 (150 AD -> 400 AD)

Got peace with Montezuma for alphabet and revolted into buddhism for diplo points. Monty also researched construction next after mathematics, so the coming battles and attacks on our cities could prove to be disastrous.

turn 122: Monty starts sending missionaries into our lands, great news as the more cities we have with buddhism in them the happier he will be. Ragnar declares war on Sitting Bull.

turn 123: I check the resource screen and notice the Khmer has extra Wine, I immediately seek for a deal (we will get another source of corn hooked up in a matter of 10-15 turns).

turn 124: Ragnar asks us to declare war on Sitting Bull. I strongly considered accepting as Bull is far away from us, but that goes for Ragnar as well and we have enough on our hands as it is with Monty and plans concerning QSH so I don't even want to engage a fake war at this point.

turn 127: I notice Mansa Musa has spare spice, I immediately seek for a deal. Let the whipping party commence, unhappy faces shouldn't be a problem, keep that in mind when taking over shyuhe, hurry as much production as you can. We will get another source of pig hooked up the next turn, it's already fixed by the end of the turnset.

Turn 130: we start stealing, and WOW! these modifiers are great. Our spy bomb means we have so much more espionage than the others, so we'll get it extra cheap. Monarchy for just 226 EP, super! -32 % for espionage spending.

Our spy succeeds, and I also successfully steal feudalism the same turn. I did not have the 50% discount yet (think 30 or 40%) from staying in the city, but our peace treaty with Monty is coming to an end so I needed the tech right away in order to bribe.

I decided to postpone attacking QSH as we'll get that city anyway, it will be up to shyuhe. I figured we'd wait until we could bribe Monty with feudalism. Speaking of which....

turn 131: I've got feudalism and get ready to bribe Monty, but.....

*sigh* we're doomed, I must've miscounted turns......

pheeew, close! I thought I had wrecked it there for a second, but it was still within time limit. We should be safe now, he's probably decided to attack someone else. Hopefully (and probably due to the city on our landmass) it's QSH which lets us kill two birds with 1 stone--getting diplo points with Monty and also getting our great city back.

If you (shyuhe) see a stack apporaching our gems+sugar+fish make sure you attack as well to make sure Monty doesn't get it. For instance declare and move into his borders when Monty is 1 tile away--that way you'll get there before he does and it will also cause Monty to declare war. If we take the city before Monty gets there we won't get any diplo points for military struggle.

Settled 2 cities by they way, both close to the capital so the maintenance cost is low. They're paying for themselves in trade routes alone (corn+fish on desert and 2 south of horses). I suggest we get a couple of more workers as well and farm+connect that wheat east of our capital.

PS: I also made a deal with the Khmer just now. He gets marble and we get 10 gold per turn, very good deal as we don't need that marble right now (nor the Khmer). One of our spies were revealed when stealing techs, so the Khmer are now annoyed at us. We will really need to get close with Monty as QSH and the Khmer are not going to like us. Good part is that we only have 1 front to them and they're on a other landmass.

I didn't revolt to hereditary rule yet as we currently have enough happiness. Figured we'll wait for organized religion or bureaucracy first to take 2 at the same time.

 

[shyuhe]

Looks good. I'm a bit busy so I probably won't get to this until Sunday. Feel free to post comments until then

Monty may have decided to attack us. I've been in a situation where an AI decided to attack me while I had a peace treaty with that civ so it's not impossible... I'm thinking of fortifying the western borders a bit as I don't trust that nut.

 

[Rusten]

Yikes! Didn't know that was possible. You better whip a couple of Longbowmen then. Just disband the archers, they're costing too much in maintenance, perhaps the chariot as well.

 

[ungy]

Good going Rusten!
I think we should build more military--especially now that we have feudalism get some LB up.

I don't see the point in temples--we'll have heavy spy attrition and critical need for hammers for military--and we've currently got the happy.

I agree with getting more workers out--that's just a lot of jungle.

Is it possible that Monte is in WHEOOH over the barb city NE of London? I can't remember if that is possible. Anyway the barb city is well placed and I think building units to take it makes sense.

As for bribing Monte with Feudalism--my understanding is that you only get peace if you give the AI something they ask for--is that correct?

We will surely have relations problems over time due to our espionage---nothing much to be done about that other than I think concentrate espionage on a few AI and give up on diplomacy with them.

Tech priority: currency, also we need to get to caravels so we can still send spies out if we lose OB. Otherwise we'll only be able to steal from Monte.

We also have a GG which I think should be settled --we don't have a clear HE city--maybe the barb city but I think we should settle the GG this set.

 

[pigswill]

@ Rusten: thanks for explanation re gemfish city. Feeling very noobish this game (this insight is good for me).

You can negotiate peace terms with an AI the same as any other trade.

 

[mystyfly]

Feeling very noobish this game (this insight is good for me).

You speak my mind. But I try to contribute as much as I can.

Is it possible that Monte is in WHEOOH over the barb city NE of London? I can't remember if that is possible. Anyway the barb city is well placed and I think building units to take it makes sense.

I think this is possible but not that likely (especially as monty is rather crazy). We don't have OB with Monty (I assume) so he couldn't reach it anyway.

As for bribing Monte with Feudalism--my understanding is that you only get peace if you give the AI something they ask for--is that correct

I don't understand what you mean tbh.

 

[pigswill]

Is it worth swopping to vassalage? CG2 LBs could be useful, free unit maintenance likewise. Maybe settle the GG for later on when we swop to CS.