Bamspeedy
CheeseBob
That is an interesting interpretation of what the phases mean. But I think them both mean the latter. I even used the former to describe the statement of the latter in the article. Do you have any proof they don't?
It depends on the actual words.
"When police shoot someone, it is four times more likely to be a black person" would mean 80% of the people shot are black.
"A black person is four times more likely to be shot by police than a white person" would mean the probability of someone being shot...like I said 40% of the people shot if they are 10% of the population.
Do you really think if a medical person said for example "Blacks are 30% more likely to die from heart disease" that means that the number of blacks who have heart disease outnumber the number of whites who do despite whites far outnumbering the number of blacks? No, it means if whites have it happen an average of say 10 per 1000 white people then blacks would have it happen 13 per 1000 black people, or a rate 30% higher.
http://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/templates/content.aspx?ID=3018
The only study I can find on the BJS site that indicates anything like what the Tampa Bay article posted was "Policing and Homicide, 1976-98: Justifiable Homicide of Felons by Police and Murder of Police by Felons" and that supports my contention that it is "Four times more likely", not "Four times as often".
1976-Blacks 52%, whites 46%
1998-Blacks 35%, whites 62%
If we went a figured out the % of the population each race had in those years then maybe '8 times as likely' for the 70's and '4 times as likely' for more recently are accurate.
That would appear to count only felons, but I would appreciate if you could find a study that fits the criteria we want.
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=829
'Arrest related deaths' (which includes all shootings because they don't need to be technically arrrested for it to count) shows whites outnumbering blacks but doesn't go back to the 70's, includes deaths not by gunfire (white suicides outnumber black suicides by a 4-1 margin, but all other causes for death are pretty close to 50-50).
Your few examples of limited areas and specific crimes are irrelevent and anectdotal, except for possible proof of that specific area may have a bias or have a bias against blacks for certain crimes. I agree racism can play a part in some of the disparity if you will admit that there could be other reasons for some of the disparity (blacks are over represented among the poor so more likely to be a criminal........ of course I say this because they are poor not because of the their skin color.)