What are the key factors behind the rise and fall of civilizations?

I agree with everything you just said except for the Viktor Grishin thing because I barely know who he was so I'm not qualified to say whether he was an adequate leader. :)

I don't know that much about him either, save he was probably going to be leader if it wasn't for Gorbachov, he was hardline and apparently ruthless beyond belief. But very old, so maybe he would have only been around for a year or two, as was the style of the time.
 
Hard work...and Self Respect, and most of All integrity, with your self... before others..
 
Agreed. But I dont buy into the whole "the USSR was inherently unviable BS". Viktor Grishin takes over after Chernenko, everything goes differently. It can easily be argued that without the political crisis, those problems likely would not have led to the collapse.

The Soviet Union as a superpower counterpart to the United States was unviable. No matter what, they would have to lose the Warsaw Pact and significantly reduce military expenditures to turn their economy around. That, the collapse of the Soviet Empire, was inevitable.

It didnt help, but it was a tiny factor in the collapse, and would likely be long forgotten now if it hadnt happened reasonably closely to the end.

Among other things, it demonstrated the worthlessness of non-Russian elements of the Soviet Army, a problem that would have taken vast amounts of money and time to fix. The Central Asian divisions that they tried to initially use for the campaign proved themselves utterly incapable of any operation more complex than roadbuilding, and had to be replaced with Russian units, who weren't that great either, entire divisions getting lost in the invasion of Hungary for example.
 
Tell me, did you read Spengler's famous book, or did you arrive independently at the same stupid conclusions?

I did not read his book. But I have just Google'd his name and identified the book he wrote.

I have actually thought about demographic destruction of the West relatively recently. Than I picked up these modern books: "Death of the West" and "America Alone" - which basically filled me up on detail and facts.

Why are they stupid conclusions? What is wrong with them? They seem so accurate and reliable that you couldn't even counter them - you just did a lazy smear :D
 
I did not read his book. But I have just Google'd his name and identified the book he wrote.

I have actually thought about demographic destruction of the West relatively recently. Than I picked up these modern books: "Death of the West" and "America Alone" - which basically filled me up on detail and facts.

Why are they stupid conclusions? What is wrong with them? They seem so accurate and reliable that you couldn't even counter them - you just did a lazy smear :D

Honesty I never read the whole book - I had had enough of that style from a modern derivative (minus pessimism) by Huntington. Just enough to see that his method did not made sense.
Spengler's fault was in attempting to paint world history has a war between civilizations - only it that contexts could it make sense to warn about an impending "decline of the west". As this was the basis for his book, the whole thing is garbage. The "civilizations" of the world are far more intertwined that Spengler and the others lime him believed. I could easily argue that "the west" has influenced so much the rest of the world that now there is a single civilization, with some traditionalist pockets resisting on marginal locations - the "old west" ("old Europe", as some have called it :lol:) lost relevance because it is no longer unique, lost that uniqueness through its own success in converting others. But even that is wrong, because there never was one "western civilization".
 
To be fair, Spengler's work was a lot better then his fan's make it out to be, and a touch more complicated then you're giving him credit for.
He was still wrong, but he was just too hopped up on Hegelianism. If you really asked Spengeler why he thought Civilizations collapsed, he'd say they don't collapse, they die and they die because they're organic.
And in fact Demography and the like wouldn't really factor into his picture for him, these are simply symptoms of the bigger picture. If I could summarize Spengler's view very shortly, he would say that Civilizations are basically ideas, and ideas begin to loose their appeal after they've been thoroughly explored. For example, according to him we've taken the Principle Idea of Western Civilization which is sort of a spiritual reaching out into endless space, and gone just about as far as we can go with that.
 
Why are they stupid conclusions? What is wrong with them?

If these are the same conclusions as the opinions you expressed in this thread, then it's already been thoroughly explained what's wrong with them there, principally in this post.

Ultimately, however, these sorts of views are not simply mistaken but fundamentally stupid, not to mention immoral, for the reasons that innonimatu alluded to: they involve thinking that "civilisations" and "cultures" are real, concrete things that are actually involved in some kind of life-or-death struggle, and that their survival matters. Which is absurd when you give it the slightest thought - these things are pure abstractions and have no reality or significance beyond those which individual human beings give them in their own heads. The sooner human beings learn to stop reifying their own opinions and acting as if they have some kind of objective existence, the sooner they'll stop turning them into ideals and killing each other over them.
 
If these are the same conclusions as the opinions you expressed in this thread, then it's already been thoroughly explained what's wrong with them there, principally in this post.

Ultimately, however, these sorts of views are not simply mistaken but fundamentally stupid, not to mention immoral, for the reasons that innonimatu alluded to: they involve thinking that "civilisations" and "cultures" are real, concrete things that are actually involved in some kind of life-or-death struggle, and that their survival matters. Which is absurd when you give it the slightest thought - these things are pure abstractions and have no reality or significance beyond those which individual human beings give them in their own heads. The sooner human beings learn to stop reifying their own opinions and acting as if they have some kind of objective existence, the sooner they'll stop turning them into ideals and killing each other over them.

Yes well you may believe that cultures, identities and civizations are "just in the heads of people" that may be ok for you a avoved rootless cosmopolitan. But when a significant amount of the population believe in their own superioty of their civilisation - they don't want to go down your nihilist hedonistic lifestyle of pic and mix culture. Who are the masses going to follow? Someone who doesn't believe in anything "all cultures, identies and civilisations are all equal" or someone who says "I belive in this IAM RIGHT" - who are people going to follow? The weak horse or the strong horse? People will go to the strong horse.
 
Yes well you may believe that cultures, identities and civizations are "just in the heads of people" that may be ok for you a avoved rootless cosmopolitan. But when a significant amount of the population believe in their own superioty of their civilisation - they don't want to go down your nihilist hedonistic lifestyle of pic and mix culture. Who are the masses going to follow? Someone who doesn't believe in anything "all cultures, identies and civilisations are all equal" or someone who says "I belive in this IAM RIGHT" - who are people going to follow? The weak horse or the strong horse? People will go to the strong horse.

Well then, you have nothing to worry about, do you?
 
Rise:
1. Increase in food supply---due to a paradigm shift, resulting increase in population
2. Improvement in military technology/tactics

Fall:
2. Lack of political will to survive
2. Successive \ critical military defeats
3. Subjugated peoples experience their own rise
 
Yes well you may believe that cultures, identities and civizations are "just in the heads of people" that may be ok for you a avoved rootless cosmopolitan. But when a significant amount of the population believe in their own superioty of their civilisation - they don't want to go down your nihilist hedonistic lifestyle of pic and mix culture. Who are the masses going to follow? Someone who doesn't believe in anything "all cultures, identies and civilisations are all equal" or someone who says "I belive in this IAM RIGHT" - who are people going to follow? The weak horse or the strong horse? People will go to the strong horse.

This isn't a demagoguery competition, you know. Whether "the masses" are going to "follow" me isn't relevant to whether I'm right or not. Also, shouting louder, or pandering to people's prejudices, doesn't make someone stronger any more than it makes them more right.

Your comment just illustrates what I said, though. You didn't take in my point at all. I didn't say all cultures are equal. I don't believe that. What I said is that cultures aren't things at all, that "culture" is an abstraction, and that whether a "culture" persists or not is of no importance at all. That doesn't mean I think they're all equal. You seem to think that someone who doesn't believe that a culture is a concrete thing must, in virtue of that fact, be a nihilist. You obviously didn't notice that I called this belief in cultures immoral, which a nihilist could never say. A nihilist holds no values at all. I hold plenty of values. And among those values is the belief that following a non-existent thing, and making that non-existent thing into an ideal, is simply idolatry. It is wrong because it makes a fabricated thing, a creature of the mind, into something that is more important than people and their welfare. Surely the history of the twentieth century shows us where this belief in one culture versus another, or one civilisation versus another, or indeed one race versus another, takes us.

Plus, of course, it leads to absurdity, such as your apparent belief (I may be wrong in attributing this to you, but it is hard to follow what you said) that everyone should believe their own culture to be superior to everyone else's. The irrationality of that is self-evident.

Also, I can't think why you call me a hedonist, or - come to that - what would be wrong with it if I were.
 
Well, Sociologist know people are prone to define themselves and their immediate surroundings. And they are prone to group themselves. And a civilization can be one of definitions and groupings.

Of course, Romans and Greeks didn't think of themselves as of civilization, but you know they were very interested in disassociating themselves from Barbarians. And what individuals think is very important. I wouldn't underestimate sense of ˝belonging˝. And sense of being part of a larger group in members of that group can make that group organic. Because as individuals change their minds so can groups (basically all members of the group change their minds on a similar way, for instance: French hated Germans pre WWII, then they've changed their mind and now they hate Americans).

I haven't really expressed myself well. But I disagree with Plotinus's statement: ...these things are pure abstractions and have no reality or significance... What happens in people's heads may play an important role in history.

I do agree, that word Civilization is somewhat of an idiom and that itself is an modern invention. Nevertheless, Romans regarded themselves as Romans and that played a tremendous role in their history. On the other hand, Slovenians never regarded themselves as Slovenians (until late 19th century) and that also played tremendous role in our history.
 
I haven't really expressed myself well. But I disagree with Plotinus's statement: ...these things are pure abstractions and have no reality or significance... What happens in people's heads may play an important role in history.

I do agree, that word Civilization is somewhat of an idiom and that itself is an modern invention. Nevertheless, Romans regarded themselves as Romans and that played a tremendous role in their history. On the other hand, Slovenians never regarded themselves as Slovenians (until late 19th century) and that also played tremendous role in our history.

Then the significant thing is the belief (or lack of it), isn't it? Not the abstraction itself. There's no contradiction in saying that something isn't real while also acknowledging that belief in it affects history. Joan of Arc's belief in God was an important factor in history, but that's so even if God himself doesn't exist. Similarly, the Nazis' belief in the superiority of the Aryan race was an important factor in history, but that doesn't mean that the Aryan race is really superior (or even that it exists). The same goes for the nationalist sentiments you mention.
 
Ultimately, however, these sorts of views are not simply mistaken but fundamentally stupid, not to mention immoral, for the reasons that innonimatu alluded to: they involve thinking that "civilisations" and "cultures" are real, concrete things that are actually involved in some kind of life-or-death struggle, and that their survival matters. Which is absurd when you give it the slightest thought - these things are pure abstractions and have no reality or significance beyond those which individual human beings give them in their own heads. The sooner human beings learn to stop reifying their own opinions and acting as if they have some kind of objective existence, the sooner they'll stop turning them into ideals and killing each other over them.

Marxism ftw :goodjob:
 
I hold plenty of values. And among those values is the belief that following a non-existent thing, and making that non-existent thing into an ideal, is simply idolatry.

What an interesting statement! How far do you really take this? Couldn't the same thing be said about ideals in themselves? I would argue that they're even less "real" than civilizations, cultures and nations. At least cultural groups are composed of patterns of behavior and belief that have a demonstrable reality. There's no way you can demonstrate the reality of a human right. Even the concept of 'welfare' is an extremely amorphous idea.

On a more mundane level, do you think supporting a football team, feeling a kinship with your family or having a sense of belonging to a particular circle of friends are forms of idolotry? If not, why are football teams or families a friendship groups any less real than other kinds of cultural identity?

Is our own personhood even 'real'? To have a coherent sense of self we need to create a narrative and believe in ourselves as continuous entities stretching from birth to death, even though virtually all the physical molecules which compose us will be different, our personalities will have utterly changed and our memories are unreliable and prone to reinvention.

Personally I don't think humans can even conceive of each other or anything worthwhile without valuing abstractions. We can't make sense of the world without abstractions.
 
In our time the whole of Greece has been subject to a low birth rate and a general decrfease of the population, owning to which cities have become deserted and the land has ceased to yield fruit, although there have neither been continuous wars nor epidemics....For as men had fallen into such a state of pretentiousness, avarice and indolence that they did not wish to marry,or if married to rear the children born to them, or at most as a rule but one or two of them, so as to leave these in affluence and bring them up to waste their substance, the evil rapidly and insensibly grew -- Polybius

This was the state of Greece circa 150BC and is the condition of most parts of Western civilisation today only areas of USA and Australia are for now immune to this death process. The main differance now is that we have tons of Muslim immigrants who after living in the West for decades have tasted it and found out they do not like it and reacted to it by metamorphasising into insular Muslim conservative self sustaining communites. That is our future.
 
What an interesting statement! How far do you really take this? Couldn't the same thing be said about ideals in themselves? I would argue that they're even less "real" than civilizations, cultures and nations. At least cultural groups are composed of patterns of behavior and belief that have a demonstrable reality. There's no way you can demonstrate the reality of a human right. Even the concept of 'welfare' is an extremely amorphous idea.

On a more mundane level, do you think supporting a football team, feeling a kinship with your family or having a sense of belonging to a particular circle of friends are forms of idolotry? If not, why are football teams or families a friendship groups any less real than other kinds of cultural identity?

Is our own personhood even 'real'? To have a coherent sense of self we need to create a narrative and believe in ourselves as continuous entities stretching from birth to death, even though virtually all the physical molecules which compose us will be different, our personalities will have utterly changed and our memories are unreliable and prone to reinvention.

Personally I don't think humans can even conceive of each other or anything worthwhile without valuing abstractions. We can't make sense of the world without abstractions.

There's a difference between making observations that humans tend to behave in certain ways and accommodating such behaviour in your thinking, and making such observations and then drawing unnecessary conclusions based on the assumption that the observations have a basis in objective rules without there being sufficient proof of that.
 
What an interesting statement! How far do you really take this? Couldn't the same thing be said about ideals in themselves? I would argue that they're even less "real" than civilizations, cultures and nations. At least cultural groups are composed of patterns of behavior and belief that have a demonstrable reality. There's no way you can demonstrate the reality of a human right. Even the concept of 'welfare' is an extremely amorphous idea.

I do think that ideals are at best meaningless and at worst an active impediment to morality if they cannot be cashed out in concrete terms. The notion of "human rights" that you mention is a good example. There's no such thing as a "right" if we take that to mean a thing in itself. However, the language of "rights" gains its meaning and its moral force from the fact that it is really verbal shorthand for obligations: to say that you have a right to something is to say that other people have an obligation to give it to you or not to prevent you from having it. And these general obligations themselves must ultimately come down to particular obligations to do or refrain from doing particular actions. Personally I think that any ideal that is worthwhile at all must ultimately be about improving people's lives or preventing them from getting worse, because I think that some kind of act consequentialism is the only kind of morality that can really be rationally defended in a satisfactory way. And so I think that ideals that can't be cashed out in such a way are indeed misguided.

On a more mundane level, do you think supporting a football team, feeling a kinship with your family or having a sense of belonging to a particular circle of friends are forms of idolotry? If not, why are football teams or families a friendship groups any less real than other kinds of cultural identity?

What are "supporting", "feeling kinship", and "a sense of belonging", though? At least in the case of one's personal relations to immediate families or friends there is personal contact, shared experience, and similar concrete things. Talk of "kinship" or "belonging" are just rather abstract ways of referring to these particular experiences, histories, or feelings. Perhaps something similar could be said for supporting a football team, to the extent that one has some actual connection to that team, although it's not a notion I really comprehend at the best of times. What I would regard as idolatrous in the broad sense I indicated above are forms of "identity" that break free from personal connection and appeal instead to vaguer supposed links, such as tribal or national affiliations. Those are cases where there isn't really any real connection between members of the supposed group, but the group is nevertheless treated as if it is a real thing, and in extreme cases is regarded as something of moral worth in its own right - perhaps of even greater moral worth than actual people. When the group in question is a nation, that's what we call fascism, and I don't see treating other groups in the same way as morally distinct from that.

Is our own personhood even 'real'? To have a coherent sense of self we need to create a narrative and believe in ourselves as continuous entities stretching from birth to death, even though virtually all the physical molecules which compose us will be different, our personalities will have utterly changed and our memories are unreliable and prone to reinvention.

That's a very different issue. We do not arbitrarily think that somebody today is the same person they were yesterday or ten years ago despite all the changes you mention; as long as there are substantial and psychological continuities to some degree we non-arbitrarily treat them as the same individual. Philosophers have spilled much ink over trying to establish precisely what criteria we do use. But this isn't really to the point: there's no denying that a given individual is an individual (in some sense at least). An individual person is not an abstract entity in the same way that a club or a nation is.

Besides, I'm not sure how your example is supposed to counter what I'm saying. It sounds to me like you're agreeing with me that things we often talk about as if they were real are not actually real after all. In which case I have no argument with you.

Personally I don't think humans can even conceive of each other or anything worthwhile without valuing abstractions. We can't make sense of the world without abstractions.

Your second sentence doesn't support your first. It is no doubt true that the way we perceive and conceive of the world and its contents relies heavily upon abstraction. That's been a non-controversial philosophical tenet at least since Aristotle. But it doesn't follow that we are obliged to value those abstractions in a moral way. It may be, for example, that for me to recognise the difference between a bald man and a hirsute man, I must at some mental level create and use abstract concepts such as "baldness" or "hirsuteness". Perhaps I have to create mental objects such as "bald men in general" or "hirsute men in general". But even if all that is true, it wouldn't follow that I must think the groups "all bald men" or "all hirsute men" have moral value. I wouldn't have to start thinking that bald men are superior to hirsute men or vice versa. I wouldn't even have to think that these groups have any existence outside my mind's categorising activities. To use an abstraction is not to suppose that it has objective existence, any more than dreaming up stories about dragons is to suppose that they exist. Once you start thinking that these mental conveniences and playthings have existence in their own right, not only have you become deluded about the way the world is put together, but you are halfway down the road to giving these things moral weight - and that's when people start to lose any sense of right and wrong.
 
What are "supporting", "feeling kinship", and "a sense of belonging", though? At least in the case of one's personal relations to immediate families or friends there is personal contact, shared experience, and similar concrete things. Talk of "kinship" or "belonging" are just rather abstract ways of referring to these particular experiences, histories, or feelings. Perhaps something similar could be said for supporting a football team, to the extent that one has some actual connection to that team, although it's not a notion I really comprehend at the best of times. What I would regard as idolatrous in the broad sense I indicated above are forms of "identity" that break free from personal connection and appeal instead to vaguer supposed links, such as tribal or national affiliations. Those are cases where there isn't really any real connection between members of the supposed group, but the group is nevertheless treated as if it is a real thing

On what grounds do you believe that a concept of a group whose members you have a personal connection is not idolatrous while a concept of group whose members you don't have a personal connection with is idolatrous? Why does personal connectedness determine the extent of the reality of a descriptive term? You wouldn't say the terms "the trees in Shepherds Bush" and "the trees in Nottinghamshire" refer to concepts more or less real simply because I can have a personal experience of the composing members of one but not the other, why should it be different for the terms we use to describe groups of people?

An individual person is not an abstract entity in the same way that a club or a nation is.

Why? Let's say I describe a rabbit I saw yesterday. Then I describe a group of rabbits I saw yesterday. I don't see why the rabbit is any less abstract than the rabbits. One term refers to something with a single consciousness and one refers to a number of somethings with separate consciousnesses. I don't see how the term 'rabbits' is more abstract than the term 'rabbit'. I think the difficulty comes if I start to talk of the interests of the rabbits since to talk of the interest of something that has no single consciousness is highly problematic. However the existence of that 'interest' is not the same thing as the existence of the group itself.

Your second sentence doesn't support your first.

I meant that our concept of an individual human being is so fused with abstract concepts that our relationships with others and even our concept of ourselves are themselves abstract concepts. If we didn't value abstract concepts we wouldn't be able to place any value on who we are and how we relate to others, i.e. we wouldn't have any moral values.

Why I think identity and relationships are abstract concepts: (ignore if you don't need persuading)
Spoiler :
First of all there is no way we can comprehend the overhwhelming vastness and multi-faceted complexity of a person, so we have to ignore huge amounts of what we might possibly perceive. Secondly, we can't make sense of a person without viewing them as part of a story, with beginnings, middles and ends (populated with abstract concepts like 'lost', 'purposeful', 'victorious', 'curious') and relationships (similarly populated by social constructs like 'ally', 'enemy', 'son', 'comrade', 'superior', 'equal', 'lover', 'victim', 'lost', 'purposeful').


It may be, for example, that for me to recognise the difference between a bald man and a hirsute man, I must at some mental level create and use abstract concepts such as "baldness" or "hirsuteness". Perhaps I have to create mental objects such as "bald men in general" or "hirsute men in general"... I wouldn't even have to think that these groups have any existence outside my mind's categorising activities.

But bald men and hirsute men do exist. It's a logical category describing specific real characteristics. If bald men and hirsute men don't exist, what can we possibly describe as genuinely existing?

Besides, I'm not sure how your example is supposed to counter what I'm saying. It sounds to me like you're agreeing with me that things we often talk about as if they were real are not actually real after all. In which case I have no argument with you.

I just don't think it's possible to have a moral theory that is based on only valuing 'real things' (which is what I understood you to be saying) because I don't think it's possible for humans to directly experience reality. That reality is completely inhuman anyway. The world of motivation and values is necessarily built with imaginary building blocks.
 
This was the state of Greece circa 150BC and is the condition of most parts of Western civilisation today only areas of USA and Australia are for now immune to this death process. The main differance now is that we have tons of Muslim immigrants who after living in the West for decades have tasted it and found out they do not like it and reacted to it by metamorphasising into insular Muslim conservative self sustaining communites. That is our future.
Yeah, because Polybios wasn't a biased observer trying to justify collaborationism with the Romans or anything, and so exaggerating the problems within a Greece bereft of Rome's guiding hand. Totally. :rolleyes:
 
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