What if Germany was unified under Austria?

[brachy-pride]

What would have happened?

Would Germany have become the great industrial power?

/////////////////////////////////////////// military power?

Would ww1 and ww2 have happened?

Would the interaction with the magyars and slavs Austria ruled + Austrians being catholic, had made racism far weaker?

What would the political organization have been? with all those many little states.

Would Otto Von Habsburg be Holy Roman Emperor nowadays?

 

[Adler17]

At first Austria left Germany in 1848/66 as they were unwilling to join a German Reich by not giving up the Balkan possessions and Hungary. To incorporate a whole Austria into Germany, with Hungary and the Balkan was not possible in 1848 nor in 1866. Austria was not willing to enter Germany with the German lands (in that times today Austria, South Tirol, parts of Italy and Slovenia, Bohemia and Moravia), so instead they even tried to stop any unifications. So it was impossible that they united under Austrian rule.
But what if...
1. Germany was as militaristic as all other nations. There was no difference. Only that the German troops could fight and were lead by excellent officers...
2. Germany was on the way being industrialized. That would have happend anyway.
3. Being in catholic Austria with so many minorities and problems not solved it was clear the racism would grow. But not so in the tolerant, protestantic Prussia, where racism was not very common. You have to compare Berlin and Vienna in the time of the end of the 19th century: While Berlin was very tolerant, only a dislike on catholicism, as you could in Prussia be everything: Jew, Protestant, Muslim, Atheist- but no catholic, in Vienna antisemitism grew and was very common, like the long time mayor of Vienna was a strong Racist. Here also a certain Austrian was formed, who later became German chancellor...
A unification under Austria was really not possible. But if that happened either it would have had a similar constitution like in 1871, as this based upon the constitution of 1848/ 49, which was never in force.

Adler

 

[Tank_Guy#3]

WWI without question because they (the Austrians) fired the first shot per se (retaliation-wise) and Hitler still probably would have experienced much of what he did. And I do blieve that WWII would come to pass as well, because I believe that as long as the side Hitler was fighting for in WWI lost, he would do what he did.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Two things:

1) German Unification is ultimately an expression of nationalism. Nationalism is inherently deadly to the Austrian Empire because it is multi-ethnic. For the Austrians to suddenly decide to embark on a nationalist adventure like German Unification is extremely risky, because in the process they would not only have to compete with Prussia, but would likely lose all of their balkan and eastern european posessions.

2) I don't buy that if Austria had somehow unified Germany, Germany would be less aggressive. Besides the argument that domestic factors aren't the determinant of foreign policy, I could make the simpler argument that Austria was often just as aggressive as Prussia, but was in a much weaker position and could not get as much done.

 

[Harleqin]

Sorry for butting in. Adler17, can you recommend a good book in English about the German unification process? As a teacher with history as specialty I know quite a lot about the troubles around Slesvig and Holsten in 1848 and 1864, but my knowledge of the wars with Austria and France is much more hazy and I'd like to learn more about it. Something focusing on this period and maybe up to the outbreak of the first world war.

 

[Adler17]

Harleqin, I am sorry but I know only good German books but not English.

Adler

 

[exile2]

Hitler, of course, was Austrian. He regarded Austria's refusal to join with Prussia in the 19th C as a big mistake. Had Austria become part of the German Reich in 1870-ish it would only have added 10% to its population and would have had little influence - as happened in 1938. Put it this way - it would have made more difference to Austrian history than to German history - for instance Austria would not now exist and would be a southern Land of Germany like Bavaria - Catholic, with a different dialect, but still German.

 

[Reno]

Hitler, of course, was Austrian. He regarded Austria's refusal to join with Prussia in the 19th C as a big mistake. Had Austria become part of the German Reich in 1870-ish it would only have added 10% to its population and would have had little influence - as happened in 1938. Put it this way - it would have made more difference to Austrian history than to German history - for instance Austria would not now exist and would be a southern Land of Germany like Bavaria - Catholic, with a different dialect, but still German.

Why would Austria-Hungary even consider joining Germany under Prussian rule? Since that would mean they would basically have to give up all of their balkan posessions. The rest of Germany wouldn't really want to unite into a Germany under Austrian rule either.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Austria was more interested in retaining the status quo. Had they been victorious in 1866 things probably would have continued on as it has been since 1814 with 'Germany' being a loose alliance of independent states under Austrian dominance. German unification was in direct conflict with what the Austrian government wanted.

Austria was basically a dying empire by that point anyways. They were better off than Turkey, but not in very good shape by any means. They couldn't hold their empire together as it was.

Assuming it did happen, the big winner is probably France. France never really recovered from the loss in the Franco-Prussian War and the Communist insurrection afterwards, and it could be possibly be argued that even World War I wouldn't have been as bad for them (even though it would likely still happen) as Austria-Germany would be far less united than the German Empire. France was the most powerful nation in Europe under Napoleon III in the 1860s. If he doesn't get ousted in 1870, France is a much stronger nation for the next 50+ years.

 

[brachy-pride]

couldnt bavaria and the southern catholic states join austria?

 

[Adler17]

Well, Bavaria and Hessen were catholic but not Baden and Württemberg, which had a majority or at least strong minority of Protestant. After 1866 Germany was already united in a singel state, the North German Confederation of 1867. The south German states were tied to it strongly but they did not enter the state. This happened in 1870/71. As because of the secret mutual defense pacts with the French declaration of war on Prussia, all German states were at war with France, even the frankophil Bavaria. But King Ludwig II. was also lacking in money, so Bismarck paid a sum for his depts and he finally agreed to join the Reich.
Austria had one chance in 1848 to lead Germany but they rejected it in favour of their Balkan territories. So I do not see any possibility of Austria becoming the leading power in a united Germany. Indeed they wanted to preserve the status quo and left Germany de facto in 1848, at last in 1866.
France on the other hand was the big looser of the German unification. Napoleon III. as emperor did not dare to declare war on Prussia before 1870. But on the diplomatic front he did everything to stop the German unification. In that times the French soldiers were thought to be the best of the world but the wars did not lead to a significant victory for the French. Mexico was lost and the war with Austria in 1859 was more or less only won due to Austrian incompetence.
Nevertheless Napoleon expected another 7 years war in 1866 and so did not join the war. But after Königgrätz war was over in 7 weeks. Austria out of Germany, which now was united under Prussian rule, with the exception of (parts of) Hessen, Baden, Württemberg and Bavaria. So it was clear that France had to fight to stop the German unification.
Bismarck on the other hand had no chance to avoid a conflict. But when it happened no side was really ready for it. The German naval program just started. Although the world´s mightiest warship of that time, SMS König Wilhelm, was a German ship, built in Britain for Turkey but not paid and so bought by Germany, only 2 other battleships and 2 monitors were ready to fight together with some smaller cruiser and gunboats. Nothing to defend the German coasts properly but enough to keep Denmark out of the war as the Danes had no armoured frigate (=battleship) at all. And both armies were in peace when it came to war.
But unlike the French the Germans could mobilize very quickly. Trains brought troops from all of Germany to the west. Because of diplomatic reasons Russia stayed neutral and so only 2 corps were needed to guard the German Danish and German- Austrian borders. But from East Prussia and Upper Silesia and from Schleswig to Bavaria all German troops of all German states were mobilized quickly. The Frenc h on the other hand believed in a fast victory. They had even no maps of France with them. Although they made the first attack on German soil, these troups were fastly retreated after meeting resistance. But then came the German attack. At Sedan France was beaten and most of the army had to surrender. But the French refused to make peace and so the war lasted until Paris finally surrendered- for the third time within 60 years.
Napoleon III. had big internal problems so he needed a foreign diplomatic success and in that times humilating the Germans would be a good PR- but he did not notice the Germans were not so weak like centuries before...

Adler