What new countries will we see in the next 20 years

What new countries will we see in the next 20 years?


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there's a substantial difference in demographics, where country subsidizes, and even language between different parts of canada. these things are not guarantees that a country breaks up, but they are risk factors. i think if the above actually happens, quebec would break away too...or rather either one happening would encourage the other to follow suit as it implies insufficient stability for canada as it is today to stop it.

i put canada breaking up this way as more likely than puerto rico (they have virtually no incentive to go independent right now), but less likely than quite a few of the others on the list.
Quebec has been threatening to leave for decades, and I remember how shocked people were here when the Parti Quebecois won provincially there, back in 1976. Suddenly there were many people here sporting bumper stickers on their vehicles that said "My country includes Quebec."

Does their country include Alberta? Apparently not, since they already pretend to be their own country and pass draconian language laws almost guaranteed to keep anglophones from even wanting to visit, let alone settle there. The latest language law gives immigrants/refugees 6 months to become fluent in French and after that they will not receive any services in any language but French. So good luck with trying to explain medical issues in a language where you lack the vocabulary to explain the problem or understand the reply. Good luck accessing the courts, or dealing with a social worker... all the people involved may know the person's language but would be forbidden to speak it with them.

And then we get to the indigenous peoples' objections to this language law. But I suppose it will force our Governor-General to step up her efforts to learn French. She's from Quebec and never learned French because it wasn't taught at the school she had to attend (she's indigenous). But since she's had an apparently distinguished career as a diplomat for 20-odd years before becoming GG, people have been wondering why she never learned during those years. Surely any Canadian diplomat at that level would have learned it, if only to foster diplomatic relations with the francophone countries around the world. The GG is required to be bilingual, and I guess in her situation that's technically true... but outside of Canada there's no real call to communicate in Inuktitut. She promised to learn French only after she was sworn in as GG.
 
Agonising over the precise characteristics of the governor general instead of trying to abolish the position and become a republic seems to be kind of a weird cul de sac to get lost in. I don't even know who our governor general is, just that they shouldn't be.

In answer to the original question, Bougainville will be independent by 2027ish. They need to negotiate the exit with PNG and that'll be delicate, but 98% in a referendum isn't something PNG can outright ignore.
 
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Scotland seems to be a given. Apart from that, for the other options, independence seems to be a bargaining chip in domestic politics more than an actual goal (Flanders), diplomatically complicated enough that all the major powers would prefer to just kick the can down the road (New Russia ), or something I just plain don't know anything about (Ambazonia? Is that a thing?)
Boy, did this age poorly.
 
Unity is a "power-play" word but we could sure use a common enemy idk. like "Aliens" to stop wars among each other. Wars are horrible and are bound to happen over the Earth's dwindling resources, if not for them than for a petty division and just our basic human impulses. Sadly .....anything that can happen will happen given time ......As for the countries I could only hope to see one : Earth - but that is a dead man's dream AFAIK. We just cannot unite on our own, our nature is just like that, we need to have an enemy to unite - It is a far shot , but that's my understanding on how countries formed in the first place , banding together under one banner to fight another banner - we humans are just so horribly aggressive.
 
Video on which countries may be indepedent by 2030


TLDW

1. West Papua
Situation
: Controlled by Indonesia. Was given to Indonesia at the end of the Dutch East Indies. Voted to remain part of Indonesia after a sham election.
Reasons why it might become indepedent: Has been fighting for independence for decades. Might be becomming too much of a problem to be worth Indonesia hanging on to.
Reasons why it might not: Indonesia so far has shown no inclination to let it become independent.

2. Bougainville
Situation
: Island controlled by Papua New Guinea
Reasons why it might become indepedent: Voted overwhemingly for independent. Papua New Guinea accepted the result and said they would rubberstamp its independent in 2027.
Reasons why it might not: Politicians lie?

3. New Caledonia
Situation
: Island controlled by France. Has had 3 recent votes for independence. All 3 votes were lost, the first 2 narrowly, the 3rd heavily as pro-indepence parties boycotted the vote due to the pandemic.
Reasons why it might become indepedent: Support for independence increased between the 2018 and 2020 votes, might have crossed the required threshold in the third vote under normal circumstances.
Reasons why it might not: They have lost 3 independence votes in the last 5 years.

4. Catalonia
Situation
: Controlled by Spain.
Reasons why it might become indepedent: Voted for indepedence in 2016. Pro independence Catalonia parties still control more seats then parties which support remaining part of Spain.
Reasons why it might not: Spain says any indepedence vote is illegal. It is said by some that the international community recognizing unsactioned declaration of indepedence will set a bad presedence (though some will also say that has already happened with Kosovo).

5. Ambazonia
Situation
: Controlled by Camaroon. Inhabitants speak English unlike the rest of the country which speaks French. They say that after European colonial powers withdrew they were just immediatley occupied by an African colonial power instead.
Reasons why it might become indepedent: Cameroon has effectively lost control of the area (similar to the sitiuations in Transnistria, Somaliland, and until recently Nagorno-Karabakh).
Reasons why it might not: No sign of Cameroon accepting Ambazonia independence currently.


I guess almost no one knows anything about Bougainville as they appear to be by far the most likely country to become independent in the next 20 years but currently only 10% of people think they will!
 
If Florida left the union, it might help the electoral college issue and relieve the Government from all that hurricane disaster relief money. DeSantis could then be king.
 
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