Zardnaar
Deity
So election here in about 8 days.
Zards political theory essentially says if you go to far left or right you lose the election. In USA or UK you have swing seats here its swing voters. And that economic stuff is more important than social. Fix the economic side of things the social stuff will fall into line. Otherway round well you see inequality fueling extremism.
Note NZ is around 20-30 years ahead of most of the anglosphere. Eg various issues overseas popped up here in the 70s, compensation started flowing in the 90s. We're not perfect it's an ongoing process.
We're also proportional voting, one of the least corrupt nations on the planet yadda yadda yadda. No gerrymandering, independent political commission generally very high placing on those type of metrics one of the most liberal nations in the world. Etc etc etc.
Here's the current polling
www.1news.co.nz
It's been consistent for months. The center left is going to get beaten quite convincingly. How badly we will find out. Last time Zard did a split vote Greens/Labour BTW. For the second time ever considering not voting (2002 Labour landslide 1st and only time).
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/04/poll-labour-stagnates-peters-still-needed-by-national/
Online this means one should lurch left apparently. Labour+Greens combined are on 39%. Last time in 2020 they got 59%. Long story short cost of living crisis and labour crapping the bed basically. There's been a trickle go from Labour to Green but a massive 20% have gone the other way. Greens only poll high here when Labour's polling badly.
Zards evil realpolitiks here. They're the middle those dastardly centrists.
The Greens usually get around 5-10% of the vote. On election day they always come in lower than polling (they have polled as high as 16%) They're you're progressives in American terms. Labour's your center left.
The big winners here are the far right parties. Specifically NZ First and ACT. They're pushing the anti woke type messages, National has swung right on economic type stuff they don't say much on social type stuff. National legalized gay marriage here for example. Calling them socially liberal is an exaggeration but they're not completel bastards like GoP/Conservatives.
NZ First/ACT are on 16%. They're attractive to the hard core neo libs, gun nuts, anti caxers, anti woke type crowd. NZ First has siphoned votes off ACT and probably sone centre voters not wanting a NACT coalition which us hard right austerity, sell properties to foreign buyers, tax cuts, screw the poor the usual right wing playbook not to different than over seas.
ACT was a 0.5% party not to long ago NZ First was out of parliament. ACT is the more dangerous of the 2 they will actually implement what they're talking about. Winston in NZ First is very good at pushing buttons but doesn't do much once in Parliament (eg he has campaigned on anti immigration, gets in then immigration goes up).
Labour's odds were around 15% iirc now they apparently are 0.5% of winning. NZ elections are very easy to pick the winners you just look at the polls and who the media's talking about. That pattern has remained unchanged since 1996.
Labour's botched explaining the "woke stuff" eg Three Waters/Co governance. They've backed down on pretty much everything else apart from Co Governance. The leaders of ACT and NZ First have basically crushed them. Their big policies as such are removing GST off fruit and vegetables, free dental care for under 30s and free prescriptions (they cost $3 USD per drug).
Rights promising pocket change tax cuts but great things if you're a landlord. Their policies are inflationary and will increase rent/mortgages but that $2-$12 a week will help right? I don't expect them to deliver much on tax cuts. Pro landlords and weakening employment law they're good at that.
So cost of living crisis, anti woke, perceived Labour incompetence, desire for change add up. Anemic tinkering vs austerity riveting stuff fml. Backlash on big Labour promises from 2017/20 as well our version of hope and change. They over promised under delivered.
So CFC how do ou think my political theory will hold up this election. There's a bit more going on I can dig up relevant articles/polls on request if I can locate them. Cost of living seems to have peaked so looks like the right will get to claim "victory" for that.
Young Zard would be thinking of sodding off to Australia.
Zards political theory essentially says if you go to far left or right you lose the election. In USA or UK you have swing seats here its swing voters. And that economic stuff is more important than social. Fix the economic side of things the social stuff will fall into line. Otherway round well you see inequality fueling extremism.
Note NZ is around 20-30 years ahead of most of the anglosphere. Eg various issues overseas popped up here in the 70s, compensation started flowing in the 90s. We're not perfect it's an ongoing process.
We're also proportional voting, one of the least corrupt nations on the planet yadda yadda yadda. No gerrymandering, independent political commission generally very high placing on those type of metrics one of the most liberal nations in the world. Etc etc etc.
Here's the current polling
Poll: Labour stagnates, Peters still needed by National
With 10 days left until election day, Labour is staring at defeat, while National's hopes of a two-party coalition are on thin ice.
It's been consistent for months. The center left is going to get beaten quite convincingly. How badly we will find out. Last time Zard did a split vote Greens/Labour BTW. For the second time ever considering not voting (2002 Labour landslide 1st and only time).
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/04/poll-labour-stagnates-peters-still-needed-by-national/
Online this means one should lurch left apparently. Labour+Greens combined are on 39%. Last time in 2020 they got 59%. Long story short cost of living crisis and labour crapping the bed basically. There's been a trickle go from Labour to Green but a massive 20% have gone the other way. Greens only poll high here when Labour's polling badly.
Zards evil realpolitiks here. They're the middle those dastardly centrists.
The Greens usually get around 5-10% of the vote. On election day they always come in lower than polling (they have polled as high as 16%) They're you're progressives in American terms. Labour's your center left.
The big winners here are the far right parties. Specifically NZ First and ACT. They're pushing the anti woke type messages, National has swung right on economic type stuff they don't say much on social type stuff. National legalized gay marriage here for example. Calling them socially liberal is an exaggeration but they're not completel bastards like GoP/Conservatives.
NZ First/ACT are on 16%. They're attractive to the hard core neo libs, gun nuts, anti caxers, anti woke type crowd. NZ First has siphoned votes off ACT and probably sone centre voters not wanting a NACT coalition which us hard right austerity, sell properties to foreign buyers, tax cuts, screw the poor the usual right wing playbook not to different than over seas.
ACT was a 0.5% party not to long ago NZ First was out of parliament. ACT is the more dangerous of the 2 they will actually implement what they're talking about. Winston in NZ First is very good at pushing buttons but doesn't do much once in Parliament (eg he has campaigned on anti immigration, gets in then immigration goes up).
Labour's odds were around 15% iirc now they apparently are 0.5% of winning. NZ elections are very easy to pick the winners you just look at the polls and who the media's talking about. That pattern has remained unchanged since 1996.
Labour's botched explaining the "woke stuff" eg Three Waters/Co governance. They've backed down on pretty much everything else apart from Co Governance. The leaders of ACT and NZ First have basically crushed them. Their big policies as such are removing GST off fruit and vegetables, free dental care for under 30s and free prescriptions (they cost $3 USD per drug).
Rights promising pocket change tax cuts but great things if you're a landlord. Their policies are inflationary and will increase rent/mortgages but that $2-$12 a week will help right? I don't expect them to deliver much on tax cuts. Pro landlords and weakening employment law they're good at that.
So cost of living crisis, anti woke, perceived Labour incompetence, desire for change add up. Anemic tinkering vs austerity riveting stuff fml. Backlash on big Labour promises from 2017/20 as well our version of hope and change. They over promised under delivered.
So CFC how do ou think my political theory will hold up this election. There's a bit more going on I can dig up relevant articles/polls on request if I can locate them. Cost of living seems to have peaked so looks like the right will get to claim "victory" for that.
Young Zard would be thinking of sodding off to Australia.
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