Zards Political Theories In Action

Zardnaar

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So election here in about 8 days.

Zards political theory essentially says if you go to far left or right you lose the election. In USA or UK you have swing seats here its swing voters. And that economic stuff is more important than social. Fix the economic side of things the social stuff will fall into line. Otherway round well you see inequality fueling extremism.

Note NZ is around 20-30 years ahead of most of the anglosphere. Eg various issues overseas popped up here in the 70s, compensation started flowing in the 90s. We're not perfect it's an ongoing process.

We're also proportional voting, one of the least corrupt nations on the planet yadda yadda yadda. No gerrymandering, independent political commission generally very high placing on those type of metrics one of the most liberal nations in the world. Etc etc etc.

Here's the current polling


It's been consistent for months. The center left is going to get beaten quite convincingly. How badly we will find out. Last time Zard did a split vote Greens/Labour BTW. For the second time ever considering not voting (2002 Labour landslide 1st and only time).


https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/04/poll-labour-stagnates-peters-still-needed-by-national/

Online this means one should lurch left apparently. Labour+Greens combined are on 39%. Last time in 2020 they got 59%. Long story short cost of living crisis and labour crapping the bed basically. There's been a trickle go from Labour to Green but a massive 20% have gone the other way. Greens only poll high here when Labour's polling badly.

Zards evil realpolitiks here. They're the middle those dastardly centrists.

The Greens usually get around 5-10% of the vote. On election day they always come in lower than polling (they have polled as high as 16%) They're you're progressives in American terms. Labour's your center left.

The big winners here are the far right parties. Specifically NZ First and ACT. They're pushing the anti woke type messages, National has swung right on economic type stuff they don't say much on social type stuff. National legalized gay marriage here for example. Calling them socially liberal is an exaggeration but they're not completel bastards like GoP/Conservatives.

NZ First/ACT are on 16%. They're attractive to the hard core neo libs, gun nuts, anti caxers, anti woke type crowd. NZ First has siphoned votes off ACT and probably sone centre voters not wanting a NACT coalition which us hard right austerity, sell properties to foreign buyers, tax cuts, screw the poor the usual right wing playbook not to different than over seas.

ACT was a 0.5% party not to long ago NZ First was out of parliament. ACT is the more dangerous of the 2 they will actually implement what they're talking about. Winston in NZ First is very good at pushing buttons but doesn't do much once in Parliament (eg he has campaigned on anti immigration, gets in then immigration goes up).

Labour's odds were around 15% iirc now they apparently are 0.5% of winning. NZ elections are very easy to pick the winners you just look at the polls and who the media's talking about. That pattern has remained unchanged since 1996.

Labour's botched explaining the "woke stuff" eg Three Waters/Co governance. They've backed down on pretty much everything else apart from Co Governance. The leaders of ACT and NZ First have basically crushed them. Their big policies as such are removing GST off fruit and vegetables, free dental care for under 30s and free prescriptions (they cost $3 USD per drug).

Rights promising pocket change tax cuts but great things if you're a landlord. Their policies are inflationary and will increase rent/mortgages but that $2-$12 a week will help right? I don't expect them to deliver much on tax cuts. Pro landlords and weakening employment law they're good at that.

So cost of living crisis, anti woke, perceived Labour incompetence, desire for change add up. Anemic tinkering vs austerity riveting stuff fml. Backlash on big Labour promises from 2017/20 as well our version of hope and change. They over promised under delivered.

So CFC how do ou think my political theory will hold up this election. There's a bit more going on I can dig up relevant articles/polls on request if I can locate them. Cost of living seems to have peaked so looks like the right will get to claim "victory" for that.

Young Zard would be thinking of sodding off to Australia.
 
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I don't think stitching together a couple of self flattering centrist brain farts counts as being a political theorist.

Especially when you're running an entirely circular definition where "went too far left" is measured by the metric "loses an election" which is explained by "went too far left" which is measured by the metric "loses an election" that is measured by....
 
Oh, and they "went too far left" but also are going to lose because they didn't effectively intervene economically to reduce the impacts of high cost of living, apparently.
 
Elections are often more an assessment of the performance of the incumbent.

IMO Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden mainly because he was perceived as being
both incompetent in dealing with Covid and indifferent to those suffering from Covid.

There is also the question of honesty. If the supposedly left party is going to
deliver right wing policies, why not vote for the right wing party in the first instance?

I am unclear what left wing policies the left ever delivered in New Zealand ?
 
Elections are often more an assessment of the performance of the incumbent.

IMO Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden mainly because he was perceived as being
both incompetent in dealing with Covid and indifferent to those suffering from Covid.

There is also the question of honesty. If the supposedly left party is going to
deliver right wing policies, why not vote for the right wing party in the first instance?

I am unclear what left wing policies the left ever delivered in New Zealand ?

Very broadly speaking NZ was front of the pack for things like women's boying (1893 vs 1920), and built a cradle to grave welfare state (until 1984).

Only country in anglosphere with proportional voting, lots of things progressives in USA want. Eg universal Healthcare, very cheap prescriptions, legal protections for lgbtq rights, relatively robust employment law comparatively etc.

Mainstream right here can't go full culture war they have to settle for kicking the poors.
 
I don't think stitching together a couple of self flattering centrist brain farts counts as being a political theorist.

Especially when you're running an entirely circular definition where "went too far left" is measured by the metric "loses an election" which is explained by "went too far left" which is measured by the metric "loses an election" that is measured by....

Well the middle has gone right.

The two big winners of that process are pushing "anti woke" type announcements.
 
This is so run-of-the-mill as far as political ruminations go, you should attach a hundred million names to it if you want to assign credit. Or, better yet, call it "the average unlearned Joe's political theory."

My sociological theory for political thinking is don't be a boomer if you want to be right.
 
Very broadly speaking NZ was front of the pack for things like women's boying (1893 vs 1920), and built a cradle to grave welfare state (until 1984).

Only country in anglosphere with proportional voting, lots of things progressives in USA want. Eg universal Healthcare, very cheap prescriptions, legal protections for lgbtq rights, relatively robust employment law comparatively etc.

Yes, thank you for the history, but what has the left delivered in the 21st century ?

Mainstream right here can't go full culture war they have to settle for kicking the poors.

The mainstream right in most places are dominated by the financial right who care very little about trans or not,
and they really love the culture war because it means that the so called left gets distracted from defending the poors.
 
Yes, thank you for the history, but what has the left delivered in the 21st century ?



The mainstream right in most places are dominated by the financial right who care very little about trans or not,
and they really love the culture war because it means that the so called left gets distracted from defending the poors.

Helen Clark put up tax in 1999 voter out in 2008. One if the first things repealed when she lost. Labour brought in working for families as well (more cash to support kids).


Lately
Reasonably good at covid response, dampened hoising prices. Lots of little small eg free prescriptions, renters rights, employment contract law.
Changed tax laws around investors being able to write off mortgage costs.

Used motels as emergency housing

Not very sexy though or noticeable outside targeted groups.

Right wants to bring on no clause evictions for renters, end fair pay agreements, repeal laws toning down property on investment and fund tax cuts by revoking various social causes and tax on houses for foreign buyers (20% over $2
million currently illegal to sell to foreigners).
 
Only country in anglosphere with proportional voting,
This is untrue, the Australian Senate, 6 of 8 Australian state and territory parliaments, the Irish Dail, and the legislative assemblies of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have some form of proportional system. So do several English speaking Caribbean states such as Guyana.

If we're just taking anglosphere narrowly to mean mostly English speaking countries, it is really only the United States and Canada and some Caribbean states which lack any proportional legislative chambers.
 
This is untrue, the Australian Senate, 6 of 8 state and territory parliaments, the Irish parliament and the legislative assemblies of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have some form of proportional system.

If we're just taking anglosphere narrowly to mean mostly English speaking countries, it is really the United States and Canada and some Caribbean states which lack any proportional legislative chambers.

I was talking about national level government.

Aussies next best option it seems relative to Canada/UK/USA. Can't blame gerrymandering here or fptp if you lose.
 
I was talking about national level government.

Aussies next best option it seems relative to Canada/UK/USA. Can't blame gerrymandering here or fptp if you lose.
That still leaves Ireland and Australia with national proportional representation elections at the very least.
 
Honestly thinking having a form of proportional representation is some big progressive stance is just hilariously provincial thinking.
 
Honestly thinking having a form of proportional representation is some big progressive stance is just hilariously provincial thinking.

Well it seems popular online and helps moderate extremism.

Downside is you can't really fo big ideas like previous governments.

Those big ideas were why we got MMP.
 
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Zards political theory essentially says if you go to far left or right you lose the election.
How does that square with this?
The big winners here are the far right parties. Specifically NZ First and ACT. They're pushing the anti woke type messages, National has swung right on economic type stuff they don't say much on social type stuff.
 
How does that square with this?

They're fringe parties doubling down on their base.

Labour or National can't do that they have to campaign in the middle more.

70-80% tend to swing that way what's left can do this.

The minor parties pretty much ate stuck at 5-10% for decades (Greens and ACT). Greens gave been in parliament since 1999, ACT 1996 iirc. They're inherently limited as to how high they can go.

NZ First got 13% once and never again. They've been in and out of parliament since 1993.

When National or Labour put up a hard right or trade unionists type their support tends to collapse to 20-25%. They usually do this first term after getting voted out 2002 for National, 2011 and 14 Labour).
 
They're fringe parties doubling down on their base.

Labour or Mational can't do that they have to campaign in the middle more.
So going to the right, in this case, seems to be working for them?

Because getting in is all that matters? Or not?
 
So going to the right, in this case, seems to be working for them?

Because getting in is all that matters? Or not?

Around 20% has gone right. A trickle gave gone from Labour to Greens.

You can swing left or right the main parties get punished if they do that.

National was polling a lit higher few weeks ago but they weren't putting policy out. Then they did and NZ First shot up in the polls.

They've been downplaying what they're planning but it's harder now but pr9bably to late 8 days out.

They can blame ACT if they get in though next election.

They had to specifically rule out things like abortion etc I don't see them repealing fay marriage for example. There's parties further to the right of ACT/National they're on 2%. None of the 3 main right parties can go full on USA culture war at least publicly.

National dodges it. NZ first dogwhistles throws out occasional hot take, ACT play up some aspects of it eg gun rights or anti Vax.
 
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If we're just taking anglosphere narrowly to mean mostly English speaking countries, it is really only the United States and Canada and some Caribbean states which lack any proportional legislative chambers.
And actual England. Since leaving the EU we are FPTP at all levels (except the lords).
 
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