Zardnaar
Deity
Well it 53 days to the election iirc. Somewhat fair recap.
www.rnz.co.nz
Polling
Polling.
National 37% (center right)
Labour 29% (center left)
ACT 13% (neo liberalism right)
Greens 12% (progressive left)
NZ First 4% (reactionary right)
Maori Party 3% (racial left)
3 minor parties 3% combined.
Labour+Greens is the left wing block along with Maori party. NZ first lacks a party seat and needs to hit 5% to get in. Maori party will likely win at least two Maori seats and get in via electorate seats.
No one really wants to work with NZ First. NZ First have ruled out working with Labour, ACT has ruled out working with them, National doesn't want to but hasn't ruled it out.
The polls over last 6 months have shown a swing to the right.
Labour+Greens have gone from 59% to 41%. Magic number is 51% in theory in reactive.
Biggest issue is cost of living crisis. Labour at best is out of touch, National+ACT will likely make it worse with austerity measures and removing various restrictions designed to cool the housing market.
Labour's big issues are perceived incompetence, ministerial scandals (one minister allegedly bullying her staff, PM defends her, more accusations, crashes her car drunk resigns). Poor performance around race type issues, perceived soft on crime (cultural report let's violent offenders get home detention then they repeat a violent office).
Neither leader is particularly popular. NZ tends to vote more on charisma vs policy. Or the electorate gets bored.
I was planning on voting Labour but it's rough. ACT and NZ first are dogwhistling around US culture war stuff, National probably incompetent as well just hide it better, Greens incompetent plus social policy turn offs. ACTs the most competent party but they're bastards- right wing slash and burn austerity, tax cuts for rich, pro corporate pro immigration. Their leader got them from 0.5% up to 12-13% in 6 years though appealing to anti vaxers, gun nuts, currently dig whistling around trans rights type stuff.
Basically labour's taken a historic high win only time a party has won outright majority in MMP history and thrown it away in a single 3 year term. If they lose its the first time we have had a 2 term government in 33 years. That government was also labour. They daikedvon various key policies big one was campaigning on cheaper housing in 2017. Have ruled out tax rises 3 times however and couldn't deliver on anything important. To be fair may have over promised.
Greens racist comments from Co leader, activist branch lead coup attempt against current leadership, sexist and racist leadership rules (have to gave 1 women and 1 Maori for co leaders. Two women are fine can't have two men). Their most effective leaders are white women and man however including NZs youngest MP who was elected at 25. She's a very good MP should be co leader/primary leader. She's the only one with an electorate seat.
National is basically ACT lite and have moved right since previous National government. Looking at the most far right government we have had since 1990 if they win.
NZ First is essentially a one man band lead by an almost 80 year old reactionary campaigning on anti woke. Oldies love him. Got kicked out of National early 90s and has been hanging around politically as NZ First since 1993. Political zombie that keeps coming back from the dead.
Maori party is broadly left wing Maori nationalists party with terrible policies. Eg 8% property tax (Auckland house prices are near a million dollars). Recently took down claims of Maori genetic superiority from their web page. Have some decent policies.
Bryce Edwards: Is it now all over for the Labour government?
Opinion - A flurry of polls are delivering bad news for Chris Hipkins' hopes for Labour to win a third term. Bryce Edwards looks at the political weather and predicts storm clouds on the horizon.
www.rnz.co.nz
Polling
Polling.
National 37% (center right)
Labour 29% (center left)
ACT 13% (neo liberalism right)
Greens 12% (progressive left)
NZ First 4% (reactionary right)
Maori Party 3% (racial left)
3 minor parties 3% combined.
Labour+Greens is the left wing block along with Maori party. NZ first lacks a party seat and needs to hit 5% to get in. Maori party will likely win at least two Maori seats and get in via electorate seats.
No one really wants to work with NZ First. NZ First have ruled out working with Labour, ACT has ruled out working with them, National doesn't want to but hasn't ruled it out.
The polls over last 6 months have shown a swing to the right.
Labour+Greens have gone from 59% to 41%. Magic number is 51% in theory in reactive.
Biggest issue is cost of living crisis. Labour at best is out of touch, National+ACT will likely make it worse with austerity measures and removing various restrictions designed to cool the housing market.
Labour's big issues are perceived incompetence, ministerial scandals (one minister allegedly bullying her staff, PM defends her, more accusations, crashes her car drunk resigns). Poor performance around race type issues, perceived soft on crime (cultural report let's violent offenders get home detention then they repeat a violent office).
Neither leader is particularly popular. NZ tends to vote more on charisma vs policy. Or the electorate gets bored.
I was planning on voting Labour but it's rough. ACT and NZ first are dogwhistling around US culture war stuff, National probably incompetent as well just hide it better, Greens incompetent plus social policy turn offs. ACTs the most competent party but they're bastards- right wing slash and burn austerity, tax cuts for rich, pro corporate pro immigration. Their leader got them from 0.5% up to 12-13% in 6 years though appealing to anti vaxers, gun nuts, currently dig whistling around trans rights type stuff.
Basically labour's taken a historic high win only time a party has won outright majority in MMP history and thrown it away in a single 3 year term. If they lose its the first time we have had a 2 term government in 33 years. That government was also labour. They daikedvon various key policies big one was campaigning on cheaper housing in 2017. Have ruled out tax rises 3 times however and couldn't deliver on anything important. To be fair may have over promised.
Greens racist comments from Co leader, activist branch lead coup attempt against current leadership, sexist and racist leadership rules (have to gave 1 women and 1 Maori for co leaders. Two women are fine can't have two men). Their most effective leaders are white women and man however including NZs youngest MP who was elected at 25. She's a very good MP should be co leader/primary leader. She's the only one with an electorate seat.
National is basically ACT lite and have moved right since previous National government. Looking at the most far right government we have had since 1990 if they win.
NZ First is essentially a one man band lead by an almost 80 year old reactionary campaigning on anti woke. Oldies love him. Got kicked out of National early 90s and has been hanging around politically as NZ First since 1993. Political zombie that keeps coming back from the dead.
Maori party is broadly left wing Maori nationalists party with terrible policies. Eg 8% property tax (Auckland house prices are near a million dollars). Recently took down claims of Maori genetic superiority from their web page. Have some decent policies.
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