Okay.
Do you think that vaccines save lives? Do you think that you need to vaccinate X number of kids in order to prevent Y deaths? Do you think that these organizations successfully vaccinate children?
Like, are you skeptical that organizations have budgets and actually deliver a product?
Are you quibbling over the dollar amount I gave? Like, if we prevented one malaria death per $50k spent, would that change anything? Would you still be insisting that losing a kidney was a superior alternative?
Medicine advances. I'm afraid I don't see how it is based upon 'statistical lives' or how regular people should be expected to predict which inventions will bear fruit.
Medicine doesn't just 'advance'. It advances through a variety of inputs. One of those inputs was long-term thinking by people who said "we should spend money on kidney donation research".
We literally couldn't be in the position of having a discussion about whether we've an onus to donate a kidney but for the people who first donated money.
20th Century Mouthwash then said "don't spend money on 'probabilities' or by 'giving money to organizations with mandates'". So, the underlying research didn't happen.
Your thought experiment requires that people not have done what you're suggesting be done.
Impossible to live in modern society without them, but hopefully in about twenty years I'll have cut out most.
Then we're back to my original observation. Usually people who poo-pooh the idea of effective altrusism are people who'd prefer to spend the money on themselves. But I want to point out how many options you have.
- you can chastise family and friends for taking vacations
- you can chastise family and friends for getting ZTE or Samsung phones
- you can chastise family and friends who have saltwater aquariums
- you can chastise family and friends who buy clothes made in Bangladesh