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Will Israel attack Iran in 2012?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Loppan Torkel, Nov 12, 2011.

  1. Loppan Torkel

    Loppan Torkel Deity

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    Spoiler :
    ...
    Successive Israeli governments have made it clear they will not "allow" Tehran to develop and possess a nuclear weapon.

    In anticipation of the latest report from the IAEA, the Israeli media was full of rhetoric and opinion about whether or not Israel, and its allies, should bomb the Iranian sites.

    Israel, of course, is widely believed to have its own nuclear arsenal but says that a nuclear device in the hands of the Tehran regime would destabilise the entire region and cannot be tolerated.
    ...
    In a radio interview about the military "option", Mr Barak acknowledged there would be Israeli casualties.

    "There is no way to prevent some damage. It will not be pleasant," said the defence minister.

    But, he added: "There is no scenario for 50,000 dead, or 5,000 killed and if everyone stays in their homes, maybe not even 500 dead."

    Israel says it supports the idea of an even tougher regime of economic and political sanctions against Iran but suspects that would not stop Tehran's by now advanced nuclear programme.

    Any military response would, ideally, be a united attack by the United States and other Western countries against Iran.

    Failing that, Israeli leaders say they are prepared to go it alone if they have to.

    It is a stance that opinion polls suggest is supported by a large number of Israelis, even though it could be constituted as an "act of war".

    Recent sabre-rattling statements by Israeli officials could just be rhetoric, but they are alarming - the idea of a new conflict in the Middle East between two regional powers, even more so.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15662122

    Spoiler :
    Seventeen soldiers have been killed in an explosion at a military base near Iran's capital Tehran, officials say.

    The blast occurred when weapons were being moved inside a Revolutionary Guards depot, a spokesman for the elite unit told state TV.

    Windows in nearby buildings were shattered and the blast was heard in central Tehran, 40 km (25 miles) away.

    Two hours after the explosion a fire still raged and there were traffic jams on nearby roads, a local reporter said.

    The death toll was revised down from an earlier figure released by the Revolutionary Guards of 27.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15705948

    Could there be an attack on Iran next year? How would you see the following events play out in such case?
    What's your current opinion on a pre-emptive strike on Iran?
     
  2. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    There clearly are signs that Israel is getting ready. It's pilots are practising long range bombing runs, the military tested a ballistic missile recently (I assume they're trying to reduce its CEP so that it can be used as a conventional precision bombing weapon), and the Israeli cabinet has allegedly agreed to strike against Iran.

    Now, I assume Israel is at this point just trying to pressure the West into doing this. However, if the US drags its feet, then maybe Israel will do it itself. It has already done it twice (once in Iraq and a few years back in Syria), and Iran poses by far the greatest threat to Israel.

    I don't know whether it will strike next year or later, but I think the probability of it is rising.

    ---

    What will happen? Well, assuming the strike is successful, Iran will be POed and it will retaliate by any means available it it. That is, ballistic missiles strikes against Israeli cities (so IDF better boost their ABM defences), Hezbollah will be ordered to start shelling northern Israel again, and Hamás will likely follow suit. If Iran wants to risk a greater war, it will attempt to stop oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, possibly by attacking oil tankers, mining the Straits of Hormuz, or some such mischief. It will surely be interesting.
     
  3. Loppan Torkel

    Loppan Torkel Deity

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    From what I've heard, Israeli missiles won't reach very far into Iranian territory and that they'd have to bomb them to do some damage. So there's a situation where Iran could lob missiles at Israel, while Israel would have to fight for air superiority in the Middle East.

    Edit: what's known about the ballistic missile tests?

    edit2:
     
  4. amadeus

    amadeus Civ2 / Law and Order!

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    Well, if they fly over Iraqi airspace, then the Iraqis have the right to shoot them down. I say Iraq because of the U.S.-installed government there, and if the Iraqis fail to protect their airspace then the U.S. could be seen as complicit in the attacks, and we don't need or want another Middle East war.
     
  5. Loppan Torkel

    Loppan Torkel Deity

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    You're on your way out now, though. By New Year's Eve Iraq should be free from American troops.
     
  6. Marla_Singer

    Marla_Singer United in diversity

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    Triggering a revolution so that the Mollah's regime falls in Iran would be smarter IMHO.
     
  7. Imrahil91

    Imrahil91 Prince

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    It seems like the two countries are on a collision course. IMO Iran has clear intentions on getting nuclear weapons, and it is also definitely in their interest to have them. If Israel is as sure on not allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons as Winner says, and they also have a large part of the Israeli population supporting stopping Iran with force - we must assume there will be some kind of armed conflict.
    The question is if they can come to some compromise. It's also interesting to see what the US, Europe, Turkey, the Saudis, Russia and Pakistan will do if things do escalate. Hopefully Chávez will say something funny, as Gadaffi has said his last crazy remark on international affairs.

    Yeah, that would be a smoother solution from a USraeli perspective.
     
  8. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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    Originally, I would have said that I really don't know when Israel would attack, but after reading the above, I now guess that, barring the U.S. leaving Iraq later than scheduled, Israel will attack anytime between now and New Years Eve. I say this because I'm sure Israel realizes that the U.S., when pressed, will help Israel defend itself. Because of that, the U.S. will let Israeli bombers fly through Iraqi airspace. To wait later would be to risk the Iraqis shooting down Israeli bombers.

    Then again, Iraq probably isn't all that fond of Iran, so they may just let Israeli bombers fly through anyway. I guess only time will tell...
     
  9. ATC1983

    ATC1983 Chieftain

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    Iraq will not be able to hinder Israeli use of its airspace as it is known that it has neither an airforce nor any anti-aircraft capability. It's ground force can barely contain sectarian terrorism in its cities. It would therefore be child's play for Israel to fly over Iraq and strike Iran. The US has already supplied Israel with several dozen bunker-busting HE bombs earlier this year which is obviously with such an attack in mind.

    I would wager an attack will take place by April at the latest; any delay will be designed to test how de-stabilising sanctions will be both to the regime and its nuclear programme.
     
  10. CELTICEMPIRE

    CELTICEMPIRE Zulu Conqueror

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    Imagine the embarrassment for Ahmedinajad if he loses a war with Israel.
     
  11. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Jokerfied Western Male

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    That's pretty much a battle against time.
    If Israel can find and reach the main sites where Iran is developing the bomb they'll most likely attack, if Iran manages to finish the bomb there probably won't be an attack.
     
  12. keli

    keli Prince

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    In the middle of a second Great Depression we really need to bomb a huge oil exporter just to make sure that the world economy collapses.
     
  13. Loppan Torkel

    Loppan Torkel Deity

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    Flying over Iraq might not be difficult, but bombing Iran - would it be "child's play"? The Iranian air force doesn't seem to be total crap and they probably have prepared for this the last decade. I'm not sure it will be a success for the Israelis. Definitely not a child's play.
     
  14. civver_764

    civver_764 Deity

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    Israel starting a clear war of aggression is defending itself?
     
  15. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    How convenient the US is getting out of Iraq now, so that nothing stands inthe Israeli airforce's way. As for Iraqis actually managing to shoot down an Israeli aircraft, yeah right :lol:

    Hasn't that been tried already? Presently there is not much chance it would succeed, the regime is far stronger than the one Syria, and you can see what's happening there.

    Not really. Iran is close to producing highly enriched uranium and perhaps plutonium so that it can start trying to manufacture a warhead. It will take some time, mainly because their missiles can't carry much weight if they are to have any chance of reaching Israel - therefore the warheads need to be small and relatively light. Although Iran probably has Chinese and other blueprints for that, I'd be surprised if they mastered the technology in a year or two, and without any testing.

    And even if they had a usable nuke or two, would they use it against Israel in retaliation for a strike against their nuclear enrichment facilities? Only if they were utterly suicidal, since the Israeli nuclear counterstrike would pretty much knock Iran back into the middle ages.

    If Israel successfuly destroys all their enrichment facilities, it will delay their programme by many years. It's not really that easy or cheap to rebuild them.

    Of course he is defending the Israeli right to protect its existence. All sane people do...
     
  16. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    Ahmedinajad isnt' the commander of the Iranian forces.

    Also, assuming Israel doesn't launch a ground invasion (pretty reasonable assumption), how would you be able to define Iran losing a war against Israel?
     
  17. ATC1983

    ATC1983 Chieftain

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    You're forgetting that Israel is kitted out with the best equipment the US and EU can supply. Its airforce would be only marginally behind that of a west European country. The Arab states, on the other hand, are using last generation equipment; can't source equipment and raw materials due to sanctions; and, as owing to the cold war, they became dependent on imports of equipment, have little developed infrastructure for developing, producing and maintaining in field condition a large supply of complex tactical armaments.

    With the exception of Saudia Arabia, every Arab state suffers this problem. It comes from having backed the losing side in the cold war which, after 1990, ceased to exist and continue greasing the palms of its dependents with cash, equipment and materials.

    It's striking that despite the Iranian 'threat' it only recently produced a rocket capable of hitting Israel: The Israelis were using this technology in the 1970s. If they attack Iran, there will be little contest.
     
  18. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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    Yeah, your right. Still, I think Israel would want to do it while we're in Iraq anyway, just so that if a pilot has to eject, he can still have a chance of making it to a friendly border.

    I think he's saying that it would be child's play to fly over Iraq. Period. Actually bombing Iran is another matter.

    Precisely.
     
  19. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    I'd say the Israeli air force is ahead of most of its Western European counterparts. Especially in terms of training and experience.

    The problem with hitting Iran is the distance. Aerial refuelling would be needed, and that's not done easily over hostile territory. (Ideally, the US would help with this.) Also, it would very much depend on catching the Iranians off guard, since Israel doesn't have stealth aircraft. I am sure the air defences around key nuclear sites are very heavy. It will be very risky for Israeli pilots.
     
  20. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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    Which is why I think they will want to do the bombing mission while we're still in Iraq. We can help out, and provide a safe haven for downed pilots.
     

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