Will there be a nuclear war?

[Elrohir]

As I see it, there are only two ways nuclear weapons will be used in the immediate or fairly close (50 years) future. First, an accidental firing by most likely an aging Russian weapons systems, and since most of them are still aimed at the US, a nuclear exchange could follow. (That option isn't terribly likely, but still possible) The second is with a crazy group using a small nuclear device, probably against an American city, Washington DC or New York most likely. (This too isn't very likely, but the odds go up significantly if Russia doesn't secure their arsenal or Iran goes nuclear)

The idea of any two nations starting a nuclear war is absurd. Even at the heighth of the Cold War, neither side truly wanted to, or planned on attacking the other; MAD held both sides in check. Even this holds true. The most likely country to be the US enemy in a serious war would be China; they possess about 300 nuclear weapons. That's enough to wipe out most major US bases and military complexes. In comparison, the US has about 40 times that, roughly 12,000 nuclear warheads. That's enough to turn all of China into a giant radioactive desert. Either way, both sides would lose. (It's just a matter of losing really badly, or losing really really badly) Even the Politburo isn't nuts enough to launch a nuclear attack on the US, even during a time of war, and the US wouldn't launch nukes as a first strike. MAD.

 

[North King]

Nuclear weapons will not be used and in fact are strategically irrelevant these days, except as a symbol of what we could do, thus, they are only useful as an intimidation tactic.

This world that we now live in, for all the cynicism of its leaders, has billions of people who now finally believe that the mass destruction of other human beings is completely immoral. Thus, they will deplore the usage of a nuclear holocaust, and a nuclear strike is certain to lead to economic sanctions and such. In this highly globalized world, this is a very potent threat. Not even the vaunted USA can survive sanctions.

Therefore, nuclear weapons are only useful as a demonstration of what technology a nation does have. It is much like the gigantic civic buildings of the empires of old--useful for making a point, but not really as weapons.

 

[Winner]

No, if we're talking about global nuclear war between superpowers (future China vs. USA or Russia vs. USA), but I can see them being used in regional conflicts (such is the potential war between India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran or France and Britain... err, forget the last one, please ).

 

[C~G]

I just have stopped worrying and started to love the bomb.

What would be better way to go than smile in the end knowing that it all ends there and then for everyone.

In all seriousness, we'll see use of nuclear device in smaller scale during our life time.

 

[azzaman333]

All it takes for a nuclear war is 1 person uncaring enough to worry about the consequences in a major position of power.

 

[silver 2039]

If a nuclear war occurs we can all retreat to the underground bases. There we will choose the most fit of the human species, and have them reproduce. I suggest a ratio of 10 women to 1 man....oh yes...HEIL!!

We can restore earth to its orignal pouplatialtion im about a 100 years and the USA to its orignal GDP in a few decades.

MEIN FURHER I CAN WALK!! (Anyone seen this movie? It was pretty amusing)

 

[happy_Alex]

As long as nationalism exists, countries will seek to arm themselves to the teeth with the latest modern weaponry.

Only a form of trans-national democracy can elimanate nuclear arms globally.

 

[C~G]

MEIN FURHER I CAN WALK!! (Anyone seen this movie? It was pretty amusing)

What movie you are talking about?

Sounds cool though.

 

[silver 2039]

What movie you are talking about?

Sounds cool though.

Dr.Strangelove: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

 

[A'AbarachAmadan]

I don't think there will be a global one anytime soon, though I agree a regional one is possible. Most likely Israel/Iran. Another potential scenario is terrorism. I think if a missle defense system truely comes into operation by two superpowers, the likelihood for use greatly increases as someone may think they can actually win.

 

[Kozmos]

Shall we play a game? How about a nice game of chess?

 

[sysyphus]

This world that we now live in, for all the cynicism of its leaders, has billions of people who now finally believe that the mass destruction of other human beings is completely immoral. Thus, they will deplore the usage of a nuclear holocaust, and a nuclear strike is certain to lead to economic sanctions and such. In this highly globalized world, this is a very potent threat. Not even the vaunted USA can survive sanctions.

Since when do the powerful care what the people think?

 

[Sidhe]

Im a great believer in the assured destruction of the Earth being a factor in preventing them ever being used, which is why I propose we make weapons that are so powerfull they don't even leave a hope of the continued survival of humanity, I've noticed people mistakenly believe that humanity may survive a global nuclear holocaust no matter how unlikely that is.

So in order to drum the vestigaes of continued survival out of the human races insignificantly unwise brains, let's build anti matter bombs that anihilate the Earth completely and leave nothing but a huge vaccum in a 12 AU radius. Now that's MAD for you. and it's just crazy enough to work too I reckon.

 

[The Thracian]

In my eyes countries build nuclear weapons to make them look Hard as they have no real purpose apart from destroy. Sounds simliar to chavs. Let's hope it dosen't happen

 

[North King]

Since when do the powerful care what the people think?

Whenever their thoughts coincide with something they want. Which means that destroying a rival nation through economic sanctions would be a popular action that the politicians would enforce.

Otherwise, there are a few politicians who actually care what the people want.

 

[sysyphus]

So in order to drum the vestigaes of continued survival out of the human races insignificantly unwise brains, let's build anti matter bombs that anihilate the Earth completely and leave nothing but a huge vaccum in a 12 AU radius. Now that's MAD for you. and it's just crazy enough to work too I reckon.

MAD is only one additonal check and balance in the process of aversion of nuclear holocaust, and a very effective one too. Nonetheless, it is not a guarantee against it. It is completely plausible that a force which does not care about the extincition of the human race could gain control of such weapons, and if it suits theire agenda to use them they will.

The law of averages says this has to eventually happen, then onyl question is how long it will be before it does. Could be this year, could take a full millenium, but it IS coming.

 

[Alpine Trooper]

Yes I think there will eventually be a war which uses nuclear weapons. Why not? The U.S. already uses them on a small scale. Furthermore, American policy is no longer to use nukes in retaliation but pre-emptively.

Also, for all of those who think the world is uni-polar now... I think you need to put down the conservative literature from 1991.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

I will boldly predict that strategic nuclear weapons will never intentionally be used for warfare in my lifetime. Yes, MAD is that strong.

Tactical nuclear weapons, on the other hand, I think we'll see used within my lifetime.

 

[Spartan117]

interesting paper..take a look


http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/sndeterrence.htm

 

[Sidhe]

That's an interesting read, I noticed that although the implications of North Koreas invasion or it's own invasion of South korea are gone into in depth, the invasion of Iran is mentioned but the repurcussions aren't only to say that military action is not viable. It's kind of like saying the US could take Iran but it would be a very bad idea(shows a distinct lack of strategic foresight on this subject, as if no ones really considered it in depth or in fact has the intel to do so) Why's that guys and girls?

I didn't read it all I'm saving it for when I have more than a few minutes to read it porperly.