It's at home, so I give us a bit of a chance. We're pretty hard to beat at home.
Even so, a win against Duke is not strictly necessary. I'd say we need to finish 10-6 in conference to secure a bid. We should be able to handle Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech at home; I give us a decent shot at Miami and Wake and home against VT, and some shot at home against Duke. At Maryland and at VT not likely. Still, 10 ACC wins is very doable. Or, on the other side, we could collapse like we did earlier this season and win only 1 or 2 more. It's impossible to tell.