2011 MLB Thread
- Thread starter El Justo
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El Justo
Deity
giants look real slow. are they that bad defensively?
El Justo
Deity
bold prediction: Ben Francisco belts 25 homers, knocks in 85, plays a nice RF and makes phillies fan forget about j-dubb. Ben Fran is for real, boys 
Strider
In Retrospect
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bold prediction: Ben Francisco belts 25 homers, knocks in 85, plays a nice RF and makes phillies fan forget about j-dubb. Ben Fran is for real, boys
That is rather bold. I'd half those numbers and bet that's a more likely possibility. The phillies are the team to beat in the NL period, but they are going to have a lot of games that come down to 1-run. That offense is just average and inconsistent. I'd prepare yourself for a lot of heartbreakers this season.
El Justo
Deity
halve them? at 500+ ABs? i'll take the over, thank you. talk to me at the end of the year with those low ball predictions. average and inconsistent offense? maybe you would care to elaborate some on this?
Scratch
ça ne fait rien
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I'm going to wait and see on Francisco. There's no way he can replace Werth's production, but I'll be satisfied if he hits 20+ homers and puts up an OPS around .800. But I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers will end up being 15 to 20 homers and an OPS around .775.
El Justo
Deity
dude has never really had a chance to play every day outside of a half a season in cleveland where he had guys like travis hafner and other dead weight protecting him in the lineup. is ben fran as good a defender as werth? probably not. is he as much a threat on the base paths as werth? probably not. but stick him into the middle of that lineup and it's a good fit, especially for that ballpark.
let's not lose sight of the fact that werth was a part-timer his whole career when chollie finally gave him a chance (mainly being able to hit half decent against RHPs).
let's not lose sight of the fact that werth was a part-timer his whole career when chollie finally gave him a chance (mainly being able to hit half decent against RHPs).
El Justo
Deity
just thought i'd post for the record that philly fans aren't always the most barbaric sports fans.
Scratch
ça ne fait rien
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There are some differences between Werth and Francisco though. In 2007 and age 28, Werth put up an OPS of .863 in 304 plate appearances. Francisco last year and age 28 had an OPS of .768 in 197 plate appearances. He had a more promising outlook at the end of 2008 when he had an OPS of .779 over 459 plate appearances. I'm not sure we can say with any certainty that his stagnation or slight regression in OPS was due to less playing time in 2010, but I feel it's significant that he didn't show any progression.
Based on that, it's extremely unlikely that Francisco will have any sort of production that will replace Werth's. That doesn't mean I don't think Francisco won't have value, I think he will be valuable for the amount of production he gives for the salary he is signed to.
I'll just be happy if he has an OPS of somewhere between .775 and .800. If he gets above .800, then we're getting some gravy on top of the potatoes.
In a very realistic sense, it's not so much about Werth versus Francisco, but Werth versus Lee. Not signing Werth as a free agent made money available to sign Lee. The projections for Werth this season are for somewhere between 4 to 5 WAR, and Lee's projections are over 6.
We'll see what happens. In all sports, you never really know who might get knocked down with an injury.
Scratch
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He's on pace for 54 right now. That's a pace being set during unfavorable weather conditions for homers as well, so if we adjust for that, he might be more on pace for 70 or so. You might end up eating 3 shoes if he matures and swings big lumber all season long.
El Justo
Deity
gonna hold you to that one, downtown 
@scratch
then what do you envision from him? sure it's fiscally reasonable to compare werth and lee. but with the hole left by werth's departure, i'm more apt to look at who fills that slot in the production scheme. adding lee onto the books is gravy imo (with regard to the already stacked halladay-oswalt-hamels trio). i don't buy into 'on pace' stuff at this time of the year.
25 homers and 85 rbi's are not gargantuan numbers, fellas. and in that park, with the way the ball flies out of there when the weather warms up. mmm, i like it!
like i mentioned before, we'll all talk again about this at the end of the year, for better or for worse
@scratch
then what do you envision from him? sure it's fiscally reasonable to compare werth and lee. but with the hole left by werth's departure, i'm more apt to look at who fills that slot in the production scheme. adding lee onto the books is gravy imo (with regard to the already stacked halladay-oswalt-hamels trio). i don't buy into 'on pace' stuff at this time of the year.
25 homers and 85 rbi's are not gargantuan numbers, fellas. and in that park, with the way the ball flies out of there when the weather warms up. mmm, i like it!
like i mentioned before, we'll all talk again about this at the end of the year, for better or for worse
Scratch
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My guess, and that's what it is pretty much, is that Francisco will hit somewhere between 15 to 20 homers if he gets over 500 plate appearances, and his OPS will be somewhere between .775 and .800. I don't know, maybe getting to play everyday will help him figure something out about major league pitchers and how to select for his pitch to hit, and he'll climb up over an .800 OPS. But he won't get anywhere near the numbers that Werth can put up, don't forget that Werth was also very smart and selective and drew a fair number of walks. Francisco doesn't have that same discipline.
Is 25 homers impossible? No, not impossible, I don't think, but very unlikely. Just as much as Francisco will get an opportunity to learn more about the pitches while playing every day, so will the pitchers be learning about Francisco.
Interestingly enough, Jayson Werth is the 10th most comparable hitter to Francisco through age 28, based on similarity scores. But only Jayson Werth of those 10 has ever hit 25 or more homers in a season. And I think if you look at their career paths side by side, you can see that Werth showed a lot more promise as a hitter at age 28 than Francisco did.
So that's why it'll be a huge surprise if Francisco knocks 25 or more out. But if he does, I hope downtown posts a Youtube video of him eating a shoe.
Is 25 homers impossible? No, not impossible, I don't think, but very unlikely. Just as much as Francisco will get an opportunity to learn more about the pitches while playing every day, so will the pitchers be learning about Francisco.
Interestingly enough, Jayson Werth is the 10th most comparable hitter to Francisco through age 28, based on similarity scores. But only Jayson Werth of those 10 has ever hit 25 or more homers in a season. And I think if you look at their career paths side by side, you can see that Werth showed a lot more promise as a hitter at age 28 than Francisco did.
So that's why it'll be a huge surprise if Francisco knocks 25 or more out. But if he does, I hope downtown posts a Youtube video of him eating a shoe.
El Justo
Deity
youtube works better in my browser, downtown
If you take Francisco's year where he had 405 ABs he projects at around 22 HR that year, if he kept that pace. (Which is a better pace than his previous year where he had more at bats and the same amount of homers.) He is now 29 turning 30 and thus his AVG and SBs are probably on a downward trend while his power numbers might be maintained, or fall, as is the trend for most players.
Nothing really jumps out in his numbers to indicate he is much more than an average outfielder--not a big OBP guy, has average power, can steal some bases, so so avg. He is pretty run of the mill if you ask me.
He is at the end of the Bill James golden years of 25-29, so we shall see. 29 going on 30 is kind of late to be learning and gaining experience and expecting some big jump in his skillset but I guess it is possible. I don't see much progression for him to be honest, beyond just seeing what he can do with a full season of at bats. (So 20+ HR, 70ish RBI seems more realistic I think. Not bad but not great.) FWIW CBS projects him at 12 HR and 43 RBI...
Not to say he's a bad person to have on the roster, at that salary he looks pretty good in fact as Scratch mentioned.
Nothing really jumps out in his numbers to indicate he is much more than an average outfielder--not a big OBP guy, has average power, can steal some bases, so so avg. He is pretty run of the mill if you ask me.
He is at the end of the Bill James golden years of 25-29, so we shall see. 29 going on 30 is kind of late to be learning and gaining experience and expecting some big jump in his skillset but I guess it is possible. I don't see much progression for him to be honest, beyond just seeing what he can do with a full season of at bats. (So 20+ HR, 70ish RBI seems more realistic I think. Not bad but not great.) FWIW CBS projects him at 12 HR and 43 RBI...
Not to say he's a bad person to have on the roster, at that salary he looks pretty good in fact as Scratch mentioned.
El Justo
Deity
i don't buy those site projections. they were probably done early in the pre-season and i'd venture to say that they figured rookie RF domonic brown would snatch ABs against righties. ain't happenin' any time soon due to a busted wrist. it will be hard for brown to crack the lineup even when he returns. i can see brown going to AAA for a final year and francisco, barring a catastrophe or major issues against RHPs, will be the starting RF for the whole season. so take that for what it's werth 
sophie
Break My Heart
Meh, the Ross injury just messed everything up. Huff looks really awkward out in Right Field, and Zito is a contact pitcher. Things should get easier once we get Ross back so Huff can take his more comfortable Left Field position. On the bright side, Zito looked REALLY good last night. Aside from essentially 3 bad pitches (one to a guy who has clear ownage on him), he only had 1 jam, and it was smooth sailing for the rest of the game. I chalk it up to the pornstache
.Romo looks a lot better than he did last year. He's still got his stuff, plus a changeup. Still needs to work on some control issues, but I like what I've seen out of him so far.
Mota and Casilla seem to be their same old wishy washy selves. Great stuff when they're on form, but you never really know what you're getting when they come out of the bullpen.
Lopez is once again proving to be one of our best gets from last year. That guy is absolutely nasty.
Uggh Rowand. I want to hate his guts (and lord knows he deserves it), but he's been looking really good lately. Bleh. Expect him to crap out in the next few weeks, as always.
Panda's looking decent. Definitely better at plate discipline (though at the same time, not). He launched a shot last night. His right handed batting is still shoddy at best, though
.Tejada is certainly living up to his role as Uribe replacement. I liked how he swung at the first pitch he saw (which was in the dirt) with the bases loaded on two outs against a guy who had thrown 4 of his last five pitches for balls and was generally showing control issues (and had just walked in a run).
Belt is mah bbi. I love that guy so much. Left handed first basemen ftw!
All in all, not a game we should have lost. In fact, all of those games were winnable.
Oh well, we still have plenty of baseball to go
.
El Justo
Deity
giants will have the best BP in the NL once wilson gets back. loaded with nasty arms and is the key imo for SF to be successful.
huff is clearly out of position. can that belt kid play OF? they may be better served trying youth out there. huff's bat is ok. so no need to get him out of the lineup per se. it's just brutal watching the miscues. announcers on espn radio last night were wondering whether boche was going to the mound or motioning for someone to come in to replace huff, all mid-inning of course
rowand is a cult hero in the Delaware Valley. not sure why he's regressed so fast the last year or so. was he banged up last year? when healthy, he's solid. there were whispers in philly this past winter that the phils were sniffing around trading for him. iirc, philly writer claimed SF wanted philly to pick up too large a portion of the remaining contract.
tejada does not excite me. seems like his bat speed is nowhere near what it once was.
huff is clearly out of position. can that belt kid play OF? they may be better served trying youth out there. huff's bat is ok. so no need to get him out of the lineup per se. it's just brutal watching the miscues. announcers on espn radio last night were wondering whether boche was going to the mound or motioning for someone to come in to replace huff, all mid-inning of course
rowand is a cult hero in the Delaware Valley. not sure why he's regressed so fast the last year or so. was he banged up last year? when healthy, he's solid. there were whispers in philly this past winter that the phils were sniffing around trading for him. iirc, philly writer claimed SF wanted philly to pick up too large a portion of the remaining contract.
tejada does not excite me. seems like his bat speed is nowhere near what it once was.
Aaron Rowand cannot leave town soon enough. What an overpriced disaster. As CBS aptly describes him, he is the most expensive 4th or 5th OF in the majors.
Over the hill and overrated. Dude had two good years in a long career. One of the deals that makes me wonder why experts like Peter Gammons call Sabean one of the best GMs in the business.
Over the hill and overrated. Dude had two good years in a long career. One of the deals that makes me wonder why experts like Peter Gammons call Sabean one of the best GMs in the business.
sophie
Break My Heart
giants will have the best BP in the NL once wilson gets back. loaded with nasty arms and is the key imo for SF to be successful.Undoubtedly. Also Runzler made the team. He had insane stats during Spring Training. WHIP under 1
huff is clearly out of position. can that belt kid play OF? they may be better served trying youth out there. huff's bat is ok. so no need to get him out of the lineup per se. it's just brutal watching the miscues. announcers on espn radio last night were wondering whether boche was going to the mound or motioning for someone to come in to replace huff, all mid-inning of course
Belt can play OF, but the thing is, Belt is a very very good defensive 1B. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a golden glove or two in the next couple years. I'd rather develop Belt as a force at first base than put him in right field.
If I were Bochy, I think I'd probably put the very capable Schierholtz in right field, and possibly shift Huff over to Left field.
I despise Rowand. He's one of the three highest paid players on our bankroll but he puts up absolutely nothing for us. Sure he was good for the first month of last year, but he just went downhill from there. His stance is so janky, I don't know why he insists on sticking to it.
Nor I. Unfortunately there's nothing on the market, and we don't have much in the farm system. What I'd prefer is a patient batting SS, one who's not going to swing at the first pitch he sees, but rather one that's going to work the count. That's what I like in Belt and Posey; they're guys that are going to make a pitcher earn an out. Watching Belt draw that 2-out walk in the 8th last night was just awesome.
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