2013 NCAA Football Thread

[MacAttack]

Maybe things will get so bad that college football expands the playoffs, scratches that idea and turns to soccer's promotion/relegation system that takes the human analysis out of the equation

On the A&M defense, they are young and inexperienced. I think we should pass judgement on how bad it really is after a couple of seasons. Once all these guys are juniors and seniors. If they are not there by the time they are juniors and seniors will be very telling too. On the recruiting side, Snyder and Sumlin have the "you can get playing time early!" card can be played as often as the "you get to play in the SEC and still live in Texas" card.

On Azale's seeing the light, I mean changing loyalties, it's like witnessing a pagan converting to Christianity. We accept him with open arms!

Thanks and Gig 'Em!

 

[downtown]

The only potential stumbling block I see is if the playoff committee proves unwilling to allow more than one team from a single conference to join the playoff party. That would result in talent -- both player and coach -- migrating from the many great programs in the SEC to the best team in each conference. If only the best team from each conference can advance it's better to be the best team in a second tier conference than the second best team in a first tier conference.

I don't think there is evidence of that, and given the proliferation of southern tinted voices on the committee, I doubt they would let that happen. It's almost a certainty that the playoff expands to 8 teams in the next 4-5 years or so (given that multiple ADs have already said thats what they want), so that will probably become moot.

I agree with A&M, this is a pivotal offseason for the team, given that everybody is going to try and hire Sumlin away, Manziel is gone (and their star QB recruit for this year is absolutely not mobile at ALL), and Texas will be making a huge change that could impact their recruiting advantage. They've done a great job so far, but their long term staying power is far from secure I think.

 

[JollyRoger]

I saw an article somewhere that analyzed what picking the 4 teams would have been like since 1998. It seems that there would have been great controversy over the 4th team in for most years. A couple of years like that might push it to 8 teams quicker. I think 8 is about ideal. You don't even have to make it too complicated - conference champions from the big 5 conferences, the top ranked team that isn't a member of a big 5 conference, and the top 2 ranked remaining teams. If you can't fit any of those criteria, you probably don't deserve a shot at the title (except for Texas Tech in 2008, of course).

 

[ummmm........]

Maybe things will get so bad that college football expands the playoffs, scratches that idea and turns to soccer's promotion/relegation system that takes the human analysis out of the equation

I love love love the idea of promotion/relegation, but it would just never work in CFB. Economics aside, the sport is just too cyclical. Alabama's on top right now, but there have been plenty of times in the past twenty years when we weren't one of the best sixty teams in the country . . .

I don't think there is evidence of that, and given the proliferation of southern tinted voices on the committee, I doubt they would let that happen. It's almost a certainty that the playoff expands to 8 teams in the next 4-5 years or so (given that multiple ADs have already said thats what they want), so that will probably become moot.

Winning a conference championship is listed as a point of emphasis with the playoff committee. There are a lot of points of emphasis, but I think the fact that it is there is telling. We'll have to wait and see.

An eight team playoff would be tragic . . .

I saw an article somewhere that analyzed what picking the 4 teams would have been like since 1998. It seems that there would have been great controversy over the 4th team in for most years. A couple of years like that might push it to 8 teams quicker. I think 8 is about ideal. You don't even have to make it too complicated - conference champions from the big 5 conferences, the top ranked team that isn't a member of a big 5 conference, and the top 2 ranked remaining teams. If you can't fit any of those criteria, you probably don't deserve a shot at the title (except for Texas Tech in 2008, of course).

Whether it's one, two or three depends on the year, but speaking for myself I can't think of a year when the fourth best team deserved a shot at the title

I was watching the Alabama/Arkansas replay from tonight and ESPN popped up a stat that McCarron's 1 INT for every 77.4 passes is the second best in NCAA history, but they didn't say who was first. Does anybody know offhand . . ?

 

[MacAttack]

Depends on the parameter of the statistic. I do not think it would be fair to compare Cam Newton type players (one and done) to AJ McCarron type players (4 year + redshirt).

 

[ummmm........]

It's just math. INTs per attempt. Someone's better than 1/77.4 and I'm curious as to who it is . . .

 

[downtown]

I don't think Mariota has thrown an interception yet?

 

[ummmm........]

Not this year. He threw six last year, so that would put him at 1/88.3 according to cfbstats' numbers. But according to their numbers McCarron's at 1/79 instead of 1/77.4. I'm suspicious of ESPN's stat at this point . . .

 

[ummmm........]

If/when Tampa Bay fires Schiano, do colleges come calling? Would a big-time program like USC or Texas be interested . . ?

 

[MacAttack]

Mack Brown beat Oklahoma. If he gets a bowl game, Mack is safe.

For now.

 

[downtown]

Mack Brown beat Oklahoma. If he gets a bowl game, Mack is safe.

For now.

There is now way this is true, especially if Mack Brown ends up at 7-5. His athletic director is leaving, and there is a major change in the board of directors at Texas, people that have protected him for a long time are leaving, and new individuals who will want their own man are coming in.

I kind of doubt Mack gets actually FIRED this year unless the team wins less than 8 games (which is still possible). I strongly suspect that he will be asked to resign or retire, so the school can hire Baylor's coach, James Franklin, or Chad Morris.

 

[downtown]

If/when Tampa Bay fires Schiano, do colleges come calling? Would a big-time program like USC or Texas be interested . . ?

Sorry, double post. I think both of those programs will have access to a higher caliber, and less risky pool of potential coaches. I certainly think that middle-tier schools will give him a call though, like perhaps UConn (Schiano had great success in the Northeast before), Mississippi State if they fire Dan Mullen, Vandy if/when James Franklin leaves, Miami (OH), or others.

After this spectacular of a flameout, he's not going to get a top-tier offer until he shows he can lead without poisoning the culture.

 

[Azale]

Schiano has the taint of this Bucs stuff, but also I'm starting to wonder how much of it started at Rutgers and got covered up. If interested schools do some digging, Schiano might find himself a position coach at Florida International.

Which would make me immensely happy.

 

[Wrymouth3]

Mack Brown beat Oklahoma. If he gets a bowl game, Mack is safe.

For now.

If they go 6-6 or 7-5 I'm pretty sure Brown gets canned. Fans and pundits are still calling for his head, and when Major Applewhite and Greg Robinson are your coordinators, you have problems.

 

[Wrymouth3]

Schiano has the taint of this Bucs stuff, but also I'm starting to wonder how much of it started at Rutgers and got covered up. If interested schools do some digging, Schiano might find himself a position coach at Florida International.

Which would make me immensely happy.

Hey man, FIU has THE RON TURNER as the head man now, and they beat Southern Mississippi! They clearly are heading in the right direction

 

[MacAttack]

There is now way this is true, especially if Mack Brown ends up at 7-5. His athletic director is leaving, and there is a major change in the board of directors at Texas, people that have protected him for a long time are leaving, and new individuals who will want their own man are coming in.

I kind of doubt Mack gets actually FIRED this year unless the team wins less than 8 games (which is still possible). I strongly suspect that he will be asked to resign or retire, so the school can hire Baylor's coach, James Franklin, or Chad Morris.

I seriously doubt Chad Morris. Mainly because he is an Aggie. The Longhorn boosters and alumni would revolt over the hiring of an Aggie.

 

[ummmm........]

I think James Franklin is overvalued. He's a good recruiter/motivator/molder of men, but some of his in-game decisions are Les Miles-worthy headscratchers . . .

 

[ummmm........]

It's opposite day in the second half in College Station. Seemingly every Aggies possession ends in a turnover, while Vandy can't convert short yardage on the ground . . .

EDIT: Alabama's got only seven defensive linemen available to play today . . .

 

[ummmm........]

Finally, SDSU/Fresno is over and I can proceed with a new ranking

1. Florida State -- Here by default. The only team in the top three that did what it was supposed to do today . . .
2. Alabama -- Great first half, but fumbled at the goal line -- AGAIN -- and was ineffective after halftime despite leaving the starters in until late in the 4th quarter . . .
3. Oregon -- Let UCLA hang around far too long. It's good that they were able to slam the door in the 4th, but today's performance didn't inspire confidence in their ability to bring their 'A' game when it's needed . . .
4. Ohio State -- Now THAT is what a title contender is supposed to look like. But with the schedules being what they are, I still think they are out of the conversation until someone in the top three slips up . . .
5. Stanford -- Oregon State has improved greatly since losing to Eastern Washington to open the season but still, Stanford is coming back down to earth a little bit for me. Utah losing to USC doesn't help either . . .
6. Missouri -- Ah, Mizzou. We play four quarters here in the SEC. Still in charge of the East, they've tossed away their margin for error. But through the first three quarters they were just as impressive as the team that wowed me last week . . .
7. Clemson -- Took a long time to close out Maryland, but I'm writing that off to the FSU hangover . . .
8. Auburn -- Did what they were supposed to do vs. FAU today. Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama remain . . .
9. UCF -- How are they not in the top 20? They seem to have gained confidence by beating Louisville last week . . .
10. Baylor -- Another meaningless blowout of another meaningless opponent. Happily that's the last time I'll be able to say that about Baylor this year. Any future blowouts will be quite meaningful. We'll learn a lot about Baylor in November . . .
11. Oklahoma -- I still don't know anything about the Big XII, and I've watched them a lot . . .
12. Texas Tech -- My opinion of TT grew a lot today. They lost, but performed well against the first strong opponent of the season. Okie State, KState and Baylor up next . . .
13. Michigan State -- I am embarrassingly ill-informed about Michigan State football. But I know losing to Notre Dame isn't good . . .
14. Oklahoma State -- Exacted vengeance on Ames for 2011, but it's tough to erase that WVU loss . . .
15. Michigan -- Nothing from Michigan today, either they or Michigan State will be off the list next week and we'll know more . . .
16. Miami -- Oh, Wake. Will you always disappoint me? Still, the fact that they came that close exposes Miami even further. They are not long for this world. Or at least this list . . .
17. Louisville -- Everybody focuses on Bridgewater and okay, they're not facing great offenses, but their defense has only given up more than thirteen points once this year . . .
18. Houston -- So I was wrong about Houston. Today's performance was especially impressive to me since Houston was coming off that loss to BYU last week. So, better than I thought, but Louisville and UCF are still to come . . .
19. Northern Illinois -- There's really nothing NIU could have done today to improve my opinion of them . . .
20. Fresno State -- Still hanging their hat on wins over Rutgers and Boise, both of which look worse after today. Taking SDSU into OT doesn't help much either . . .
21. Ball State -- Lost to North Texas, has beaten no one . . .

Nebraska, VaTech, UCLA and Oregon State all fell from the ranks of the once-beaten this week, and all in more or less spectacular fashion . . .

There are a lot of teams with off weeks this week, but notable games include:

Michigan/Michigan State in the middle time slot. Will eliminate one one-loss team and hopefully give me a chance to watch some Michigan State football . . .
TT/Okie State in the evening will likewise eliminate one one-loss team, and will make the Big XII a little less confusing . . .
FSU/Miami will play against TT/Okie State and will be hyped as the marquee game of the week, but will provide no suspense and result in Miami's first loss -- by a wide margin . . .

 

[Wrymouth3]

Lol Missouri, what a damn joke that was. Also in other news, uh....: http://fansided.com/2013/10/27/mack-brown-burns-tyrone-swoopes-redshirt-win-tcu/