2016 NCAA football thread

[ummmm........]

There is also the not entirely insignificant hope that the ratings potential represented by Ohio State's presence could persuade the CFP committee to include them in the final top four even if they don't win their division . . .

 

[Commodore]

There is also the not entirely insignificant hope that the ratings potential represented by Ohio State's presence could persuade the CFP committee to include them in the final top four even if they don't win their division . . .

I don't know. I think if the committee did that, the playoff system would instantly lose any legitimacy it has. So as much as I would like the committee to do that as a Buckeye fan, I don't want them to do that because such a move would be extremely harmful to all of college football.

 

[ummmm........]

Idk, to me it would restore a lot of value to the regular season if winning a conference was no longer a prerequisite to a playoff berth under the current four team system. But most of the scenarios where Ohio State finds its way back in without winning the Big Ten are pretty unlikely.The Big Ten champ is definitely in given that scenario, so that takes up one slot right there. Then figure Alabama and Clemson are both in given the relative ease of their remaining paths and only one spot remains. If WVU or Washington win out, they are definitely going ahead of Ohio State bc no way the committee puts a one loss team that didn't win its division in ahead of a one loss P5 conference champ. Even if it doesn't play out that way and two of the P5 conferences have champs with more than one loss, you've still got to consider whether they would pick Louisville over Ohio State, given the fact that they have the best player in the country and their only loss would be to their conference champ. Ohio State would have resume on its side there, but I don't know if that trumps the other two. Basically, a lot of weird crap has to happen to get Ohio State back in. But then a lot of weird crap happened Saturday, so who knows . . ?

However it turns out, it's pretty clear that this is going to be yet another year where there are not four truly 'deserving' contenders and we would have been better off with fewer teams . . .

 

[Commodore]

We wouldn't need weird crap to happen if Michigan would have just taken care of business against Iowa.

The conspiracy theorist part of my brain wants to believe Michigan lost that game on purpose just to screw OSU out of any chance of making the playoff.

 

[ummmm........]

Or if y'all had taken care of business against Penn State. That would have worked too . . .

Tough break for Michigan, losing their QB this late. Door cracks a little wider for Penn State . . .

Alphonse Taylor, who suffered a concussion way back in the Arkansas game, is not expected to return this season. I don't get how that happens . . .

JK Scott, third punter in the nation statistically, doesn't make the Ray Guy final ten . . .

 

[Commodore]

Or if y'all had taken care of business against Penn State. That would have worked too . . .

Yeah, that too. This will be two years in a row now that the Buckeyes decided to have their bad day against a division opponent that is going to end up winning the tiebreakers because of it. I mean, come on Buckeyes, if you're going to lose one game a year, make sure it's against a non-conference opponent. And if you insist on losing to a conference opponent, at least make sure it's a team from the other division to avoid all this tiebreaker mess.

 

[ummmm........]

You know how I like my fun facts, so . . :

According to Alabama beat writer Michael Casagrande, opponent's drives following the last six Alabama turnovers have netted a total of seventeen yards, and that's including a twenty-three yard drive Miss State had this past Saturday. That's pretty impressive . . .

 

[Commodore]

Pat Forde at Yahoo seems to think the committee would be entirely justified in putting Ohio State in the playoff over a potential Penn State conference champion. He seems to think Penn State has absolutely no legitimate case to be considered for the playoff even if they win the Big Ten. While I do like hearing stuff like that, I have to disagree with him. I fully agree with the committee's standing position that conference champions should be favored heavily when determining playoff teams.

However, I do see a distinct possibility of two Big Ten teams making the playoff this year. It would be the conference champion and the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game. If all the current teams that are "in the hunt" win out, I see the playoff being Alabama, the Big Ten champ, the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game, and the ACC champ. With how weak the Pac-12 and Big 12 have been this year, I really do see both of their champions being left out of the playoff.

EDIT: I mean, the stated goal of the playoff committee is to put who they think the four best teams in FBS are in the playoff and I just don't see how anyone could reasonably say any team in either the Pac-12 or Big 12 could be considered one of the four best teams in FBS.

 

[ummmm........]

Gee, several points to make here . . :

First of all, the parallels with 2011 Alabama are strong. Ohio State is certainly one of the four most qualified candidates to fill the available playoff slots at this time, but all that does is prove we have more available slots than we have qualified candidates . . .

Second, 'the Big Ten champ' and 'the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game' are only likely to be different teams if Ohio State wins the Ohio State/Michigan game. If Michigan wins, they will likely be the Big Ten champ . . .

That said, there does seem to be a consensus at this time that Ohio State will make the playoffs. Ofc, there are still games to be played. But from my perspective, I would also be heartened by Ohio State's inclusion as it would restore some of the meaning to the regular season that was destroyed by the 'conference champions' requirement . . .

But I also agree with you that including Ohio State would destroy what little legitimacy the playoffs have. Ignoring a terrible loss like Ohio State's loss to VaTech in 2014 was bad enough, but this would be the playoff basically saying that the best way to determine a champion is by having a playoff, then ignoring the results of a regular season divisional race, which is nothing if not a playoff. It's kind of absurd . . .

I still think you're off-base on the Pac-12 and Big XII champs though. If either Washington or WVU ends up as a one-loss conference champion, there is no way Ohio State goes in ahead of either of them, if only because of the weight the committee gives to championships won . . .

Finally, I also think these weekly ratings are a load of crap, just as we have seen in the first two years. We won't know what the committee is actually going to do until those championships have actually been won, in the few days before the final ranking is released . . .

Oh, one other thought. If Ohio State does get in, it better be as a second Big Ten team. If Ohio State gets in at the expense of the actual Big Ten champ, my head just might implode . . .

 

[Commodore]

Second, 'the Big Ten champ' and 'the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game' are only likely to be different teams if Ohio State wins the Ohio State/Michigan game. If Michigan wins, they will likely be the Big Ten champ

Unless it's Wisconsin that gets another crack at Michigan. They only lost by a touchdown last time and completely shut down Michigan's high scoring offense in the Big House. Just imagine what Wisconsin could do on a neutral field. Wisconsin also has a very strong case for being in the playoff if they win the Big Ten despite having two losses.

That said, there does seem to be a consensus at this time that Ohio State will make the playoffs. Ofc, there are still games to be played. But from my perspective, I would also be heartened by Ohio State's inclusion as it would restore some of the meaning to the regular season that was destroyed by the 'conference champions' requirement

I don't think I could enjoy it though, even if the Buckeyes went on to win the title again because in the back of my mind would be that nagging little voice that says "how can you call yourselves the national champion when you didn't even win your conference?"

I still think you're off-base on the Pac-12 and Big XII champs though. If either Washington or WVU ends up as a one-loss conference champion, there is no way Ohio State goes in ahead of either of them, if only because of the weight the committee gives to championships won

I don't know. I think these weekly rankings gives us a little insight into what the committee is thinking, and judging by the rankings, it seems they really do not have any respect at all for what Pac-12 and Big 12 teams are doing. Especially the Big 12 since the top team there isn't going to get to cap off the season with that signature conference title game victory that the committee seems to be so impressed with.

Finally, I also think these weekly ratings are a load of crap, just as we have seen in the first two years. We won't know what the committee is actually going to do until those championships have actually been won, in the few days before the final ranking is released

As I said above, I do think the weekly rankings give us insight into the committee's leanings and thought process. The fact that they have Ohio State at 2 and Michigan at 3 indicates to me they intend to put the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game in the playoff regardless of who ends up winning the Big Ten.

Oh, one other thought. If Ohio State does get in, it better be as a second Big Ten team. If Ohio State gets in at the expense of the actual Big Ten champ, my head just might implode

Agreed. All the potential Big Ten champs right now, with the exception of Nebraska, have very strong cases to be in the playoff if they win the title so keeping them out just to put Ohio State in would be absolutely outrageous.

 

[ummmm........]

I'll be interested to see how Michigan's QB situation resolves itself . . .

The issue with the weekly ratings is that they by necessity do not take conference championships into account, and that has been such a huge factor for the committee in the first two years. All of the Pac-12 title contenders are in easy striking distance of the top four except Wazzu, and I promise you that if they beat Washington they will suddenly find themselves within easy striking distance of the top four in the penultimate poll. The Big XII's position is a little more precarious, but the WVU/Oklahoma winner will get a big boost, and if it's Oklahoma they'll have another chance to jump if they beat Okie State . . .

But you are correct that the weekly polls do give us some insight into the committee's reasoning. Without them we wouldn't know that the committee places such a large emphasis on conference champions, or that they value quality wins over bad losses . . .

 

[Commodore]

I just don't want to hear any Pac-12 teams crying about "east coast bias" if their champ does get left out. I've already been hearing that kind of talk from fans of Pac-12 teams and my response is that the committee doesn't have an east coast bias, they have an anti-crappy conference bias.

 

[ummmm........]

I think I may be able to explain my point better from the other way around . . .

If Michigan beats Ohio State, Ohio State is not going to the playoffs, and Michigan is not going to the playoffs unless they also win the conference -- the committee is definitely not inviting a team that just lost its conference title game, I don't care who they are . . .

Ohio State has a better chance as a non-conference champion precisely because they would not have just lost their conference title game. So let's say they beat Michigan and Penn State advances to the conference title game. Now Ohio State is sitting at home while Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State and Washington or Wazzu is playing USC, Colorado or Utah. There is no reason to believe that winning that conference title game wouldn't be enough to vault them into the top four bumping out idle Ohio State the same way Ohio State's conference title win vaulted them into the top four bumping out a TCU team that had just played a dominating win over a weak ISU team that same weekend in '14 . . .

There is still no way to know what the committee will actually do this year, I'm just pointing out that precedent is not on Ohio State's side . . .

 

[IglooDame]

I don't think I could enjoy it though, even if the Buckeyes went on to win the title again because in the back of my mind would be that nagging little voice that says "how can you call yourselves the national champion when you didn't even win your conference?"

Just a thought - it'd be the same as when a pro team doesn't win their division but gets into the playoffs as a wildcard and goes on to win the seriesbowlfinalscup?

 

[ummmm........]

Yes, it would be exactly that bad . . .

 

[Commodore]

Just a thought - it'd be the same as when a pro team doesn't win their division but gets into the playoffs as a wildcard and goes on to win the seriesbowlfinalscup?

I don't think it's really the same since in professional sports, the talent levels between the teams are much more even, so one can still reasonably call themselves the champion if they win the title game even if they don't win their conference/division.

 

[ummmm........]

If I were to offer a more serious reply than my first, I would point out that our sport is better than all the other sports so when someone points out something that makes our sport more like another sport, while it may not actually be a step backwards it should certainly be approached with caution . . .

As to why we value game results so much more highly than other sports I think it may have something to do with the large number of teams and relatively few games played, but more than that I think it's just the culture of the sport where every game matters. So when Louisville and Clemson play each other that result controls which team has an opportunity to advance regardless of which team is perceived to be better. The winner may later play themselves out of that opportunity, but if they don't then the actual game result is what matters. That idea is fundamental to the history of CFB in a way that it is not in any other sport, imho . . .

Okay, I was still thinking about this today so I'm going to try again. There seems to be general consensus that Alabama is the best team in the country this year. At the very least, there is less dissent about that than there is in a typical year. But if Alabama loses in the semifinal, the idea of allowing us to play in the final anyway would be absurd. Just as if we lost in the final but were awarded the national title anyway. I think where the disconnect comes with people who come to CFB from other sports is that here, all of the games are supposed to matter that much, not just the last two. The regular season is not a single elimination tournament like the postseason is, but the results of the games are still supposed to count . . .

And again, none of this is meant to say that Ohio State isn't one of the best four teams, it's just another example of why expanding to four teams was such a bad idea and why expanding to eight will be even worse. And the really frustrating part is we had this exact same example in 2011 and we ignored it and expanded anyway, so when it comes time to expand to eight teams I have zero confidence that anyone will remember the warning this year is giving us either. If we keep going down that path CFB will turn into MBB where no one needs to pay attention until tourney time . . .

 

[ummmm........]

It's possible Louisville may have forgotten to steal Houston's game plan . . .

Eh, three more touchdowns and they've got it, no problem . . .

Got to watch out for those Thursday night games . . .

 

[IglooDame]

If you aren't all that interested in playoffs, I think you might as well just hand the trophy to Alabama now instead of waiting for another six weeks...

 

[Commodore]

If you aren't all that interested in playoffs, I think you might as well just hand the trophy to Alabama now instead of waiting for another six weeks...

Depends on who makes the playoff. Both Ohio State and Michigan are capable of beating Alabama, so if either one of them makes the playoff, the title is still up for grabs. If they don't, then I completely agree with your statement.