A different prediction for today's elections

[klazlo]

Ok, this is about the media. The goal of the corporate media is to keep up the tension as long as they can because this is how they boost ratings.
This means that they will call all the states where the result is predictable and hold back the call on battleground states. Now this will be tricky, because according to most predictions, if McCain loses one big battleground states, it's over. But let's say for the sake of avoiding surprises, that losing two battleground states is the indication that Obama wins.

The battleground states are Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana. Let's count Virginia and Pennsylvania here too. (I know there are some in the West too, but by the time we get there it will be over.)
The polls will close in Virginia and Indiana first at 7.00 ET. Ohio and North Carolina will follow at 7.30. The rest of the battleground states will close the vote at 8.

So when do you think the media will call the vote? I say they will wait at least until 9.00 ET even if Obama sweeps most battleground states. That will still leave one hour in prime time for the pundits to talk/analyze.

This was a race kept close by the media, especially in the last two weeks, so I don't expect them to do differently tonight.

 

[Masquerouge]

Ok, this is about the media. The goal of the corporate media is to keep up the tension as long as they can because this is how they boost ratings.
This means that they will call all the states where the result is predictable and hold back the call on battleground states. Now this will be tricky, because according to most predictions, if McCain loses one big battleground states, it's over. But let's say for the sake of avoiding surprises, that losing two battleground states is the indication that Obama wins.

The battleground states are Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana. Let's count Virginia and Pennsylvania here too. (I know there are some in the West too, but by the time we get there it will be over.)
The polls will close in Virginia and Indiana first at 7.00 ET. Ohio and North Carolina will follow at 7.30. The rest of the battleground states will close the vote at 8.

So when do you think the media will call the vote? I say they will wait at least until 9.00 ET even if Obama sweeps most battleground states. That will still leave one hour in prime time for the pundits to talk/analyze.

This was a race kept close by the media, especially in the last two weeks, so I don't expect them to do differently tonight.

Funny, I had that exact same discussion yesterday. Basically yeah, it's in the networks' best interest to call the race as late as they can, even though the odds are it will not be a close race.

 

[knowltok2]

Fox has got local news at 10:00 (at least in Ohio). I think that's the time frame. They'll want to call it at 9:40ish if they can to leave time to talk and to beat the other networks.

The other networks will be up against the same preasure since they won't want to be too far behind.

 

[klazlo]

Fox has got local news at 10:00 (at least in Ohio). I think that's the time frame. They'll want to call it at 9:40ish if they can to leave time to talk and to beat the other networks.

The other networks will be up against the same preasure since they won't want to be too far behind.

Yep, I kind of wonder which one will call first. IIRC CNN has always called 1-2 minutes before NBC in the democratic primaries.

 

[Supr49er]

It seems wrong to call a race while precincts on the west coast, Alaska and Hawaii are still open.

 

[holy king]

It seems wrong to call a race while precincts on the west coast, Alaska and Hawaii are still open.

but realistic.

 

[BasketCase]

Ok, this is about the media. The goal of the corporate media is to keep up the tension as long as they can

Whatever the motive of the media, I agree with this approach. The results should be kept off the record until EVERYBODY has voted.

Why? Because in some past elections, when early-voting states turned in their results first, later voters saw the early returns and decided not to bother casting their ballots. When your polling station hasn't even opened yet and you see Ronald Reagan already has the Magic 270, it kinda sucks the wind outta yer sails, ya know?

 

[cubsfan6506]

I would still vote for ohuse and senate.

 

[klazlo]

It was over when Ohio was called (around 10 ET). They stayed on for an hour more to wait for the 270 delivered by the West Coast.

 

[Mark1031]

It was over when Ohio was called (around 10 ET). They stayed on for an hour more to wait for the 270 delivered by the West Coast.

Actually it was over when Penn was called.

 

[Speedo]

They aren't going to officially call it before the lower 48 finish voting, they've recieved a good bit of criticism for that in the past.

CNN at least all but unofficially called it around 9:30ish after both Penn & Ohio were given to Obama; they had a guy playing with the map thing trying to come up with a way for McCain to realistically win - they couldn't do it.