This is not a sports question, even though it might look like it at a glance.
The premise is that you are a player of American football, coming out of high school. You have three college offers to choose from. To remove these as considerations we will assume up front that all three will offer you the same quality of education, in an equally attractive location, at an equal after scholarship cost. Your personal abilities as a player will also start the same, obviously, and less obviously will wind up the same no matter where you go.
So what is the difference? It is not just a matter of expectations, it is a matter of me as the questioner being able to provide an absolute certainty about outcomes.
If you choose school A, the team will be in competition for a National Championship every year, and you will in fact graduate four years later with a national championship ring of your very own. You will rise and fall on the depth chart, playing a third string role in the year of the championship, making occasional appearances on special teams throughout your four year career.
If you choose school B, the team will be successful to a reasonable degree. They will win more than they lose, but never be mentioned as a contender for a championship. The high point of your college football career will be an invitation to the Aqua Velva Turtle Bowl in Podunk at the end of your junior year, where you will face off with another 8-4 team in a game recorded and shown after midnight on ESPN 2. You will rise and fall on the depth chart and make frequent game appearances, even getting a stretch as a starter due to a rash of injuries.
If you choose school C, they are gonna suck. Your senior year, when they win four games, will be the high point where they win more games than in the three previous seasons combined. No championships, no invitations to bowl games, your team is among the teams that big name schools put on their schedule so they can demonstrate their ability to run up the score on a cream puff. You will rise rapidly through the depth chart, becoming a starter late in your sophomore season and holding that position through the rest of your college career. In your senior year you will be recognized as the bright spot in the darkness and credited as the biggest contributor in all four of those wins.
Thanks Tim... interesting thought exercise that has some very specific, very personal relevance for me... and is actually a question that I've pondered on numerous occasions throughout my life, specifically because I have actually experienced something pretty damn close to the scenarios you mention.
More specifically I have been a starter/captain on multiple championship caliber football teams, at the youth and high school level, gone to championships, lost some state championship games, and won some championship trophies that are/were as tall as I am. I've also been a rookie/backup on a high school football team that stunk and had little hope of sniffing 4 wins. I also worked my way up from scrub to earn a starting spot on that awful team, so I got to also experience being a starter on a terrible, sub-four-win team. So I got to experience becoming a starter midway through my sophomore year and remaining a starter through the rest of high school. Finally, I've also experienced being a backup player on a NCAA division champion football team, and have a championship ring of my very own to show for it. I've also got a State championship ring for coaching... the relevance of which I'll get to.
Anyway... So having experienced some similar iteration of all the different scenarios you mention, I'd have to say I learned so much from all of them that I wouldn't give any up. But for the purposes of this game, I'll say that if I were a college kid again, my 18 year old self would choose
to be a starter and never look back. I'd want
to play, damn sitting on the bench, wins be damned, championships be damned...
I'm not sitting on the bench, I want to be out there playing my heart out.
Now the old man me... looking back on my life... I'm really glad to have a championship ring of my very own, its a really nice ring, and I'm very appreciative to have it... although I almost never wear it. See the thing is, I'm definitely prouder of the
lost State Championship game
where I was a starter and played every single down of the game. It was a loss, but I feel more like I earned those bragging rights, as opposed to being along for the ride on a team that happened to be good. Same goes for the coaching ring. I feel more proud of that one than of my college ring, because I feel like I actually did more to earn it. Don't get me wrong... you learn
a ton about the proper way to run a program and winning technique, attitude, team culture, etc., just being part of championship caliber programs, but its different when you are an actual starter on the team (or a coach)... you feel like you personally deserve it more. Its a fuller, more satisfy feeling. So again, if I had it to do all over again, I think I would have rather been a starter in college on a team that wasn't great, than have a fancy ring. But if you're asking the old man... I like having the ring... I mean, I've already got it and its purty.
However... all that being said... you learn alot being part of winning programs, and that experience helps you coach etc, long after your playing days are done. And in a more abstract sense, being a bit player in a well run operation is more meaningful on a macro level than being the sole bright spot in a dumpster fire operation.