Ahriman
Tyrant
I have done some autoplays with my local version, which is about to become 1.5.4. The Fremen are in serious trouble.
I wonder if some of this is from being forced to adopt Paradise civic and build catchbasins in every city, and the -3 water kills their economy? Without terraforming, catchbasins are useless, and in your proposed design where terraform rates within your bordrs depend weakly on catchbasins controlled by all civs, rather than strongly on your own catchbasins, catchbasins will still be very weak and the AI will suffer from building them.
I also strongly, strongly suggest that you deactivate the slavery/serfdom/imperial levy whip/drafting for any autoplays, you can get very misleading results without them. Catchbasins also have a magnified effect with whipping; you build a catchbasin, use whipping a lot, and so have a small population which magnifies the % loss of -3 water (ie: city with 10 population bringing in 20 water, -3 is a 15% reduction; city with 3 pop and 6 water, -3 water is a 50% reduction).
I see AI moving crysknife fighters and bladesmen across desert tiles, but not attacking with them; the Fremen assault stacks seem to consist of suspensor transports and escorts, with siege units, vehicles and guardsmen; but no melee troops.
So yes, the AI seems to be confused by the sandrider promotion: Fremen need to lose the transports, gain sandrider on their guardsmen, and get some new assault AI.