The State of the World, 1280 AD
Let's start off with a look at the map:
So I now have 11 cities, which is more than enough to pursue a cultural win.
To help in that potential regard, I deliberately avoided spreading Confucianism to my new cities using missionaries. I had better things to spend hammers on and the shrine in Edirne ensured that some of those cities converted on their own. But if you look closely, you might notice that Bursa managed to pick up Buddhism!
That could be helpful in several regards. Obviously, if I go for a cultural victory, the more religions, the better (they've all been founded now, by the way). In addition, Cyrus, Frederick, and Ragnar are Buddhists, so I could potentially join their diplomatic block by converting.
I'm hoping some of my other new cities will pick up another religion or two on their own. Judaism would be nice, since that would give me the choice between the Buddhist or the Jewish diplomatic blocks. Hinduism would be nice for culture, but I'm sure everybody else already hates Monty and I have no desire to join his club. However, if and when Monty gets Astronomy, that will likely spell trouble for me.
On another note, I haven't settled that northeast island yet. Should I bother at this point? I don't have any Settlers ready to go (though I am building a Galley), and I wouldn't be surprised if Cyrus beat me there.
The domestic advisor:
A mix of builds, but all of them civilian. I figure I'm safe from military incursion for some time, and besides, what would I throw at them if I was invaded? Nevertheless, a conversion to Buddhism to gain some allies is sounding more attractive the more I think about it.
Civics:
It would be nice to have and run one of the religions civics, but that clearly isn't an option yet. This is going to be one of those games where I bypass a lot of techs, I think. I'm not even thinking about wonders anymore. I'll be lucky just to survive, let alone win.
However, I think it's time I switched to Caste System, agreed?
Diplomacy:
Yeah, I suppose it would be helpful to see how everybody feels about everybody else, though you can gather some of that. Cathy and Huayna are tolerating Monty (they have Open Borders agreements with him), while the Buddhist block is clearly not happy with him (no OB). And Monty is the one who likes me the least. As I said, if and when he gets Galleons, I'm going to have to watch out.
Technologies... brace yourself!
Mind you, I could potentially do without a lot of those techs, like Hunting and Archery, for example. I don't even need Alphabet in a big hurry since (a) everyone else has it and (b) I have no techs to trade anyway.
I don't see any way to rectify this situation in a hurry. I'm thinking I should finish Civil Service, then research Calendar so I can get my sugar plantations going for some more trade, hopefully, once everyone else starts getting Astronomy. After that, I'm thinking Machinery and Engineering in order to defend myself just in case someone gets any funny ideas.
Active trade deals:
Religion:
So I have 3 cities which could, potentially, still acquire another religion. I suppose that's an argument in favour of settling more cities, but I really think I need to focus on building up the ones I have. I mean, my research is down to 10%! Granted I expanded pretty quickly in the last few turns, but any more cities, especially further away on that rock, for example, and I might start losing the units I need to boost happiness in my cities.
Victory conditions:
The one bit of good news there is the land area I have, and keep in mind several of my newest cities have not experienced their first border pop. That, I think, bodes well: I have a lot more land--and very good land at that--than several of the other civs. I just have to stay alive long enough to benefit from it.
The power graph:
Not so good. Even vassalized Huayna looks like he could kick my butt. If, of course, he had Galleons. But Catherine can't be far away from getting those. There's a problem: if I convert to Buddhism, it'll tick her off, and who's to say my Buddhist buddies would come to may aid? Nevertheless, some allies are better than none.
Demographics:
As I said, the good news there is that I've got land, lots of land: I'm #2 in land area. And I'm number 1 in my approval rating. Well, all that indicates is that, as usual, I'm probably not whipping enough. I guess the other bit of good news here is that they're nowhere to go but up!
And we finally have some information about who built all those wonders:
Cathy's been a busy girl. And here I was thinking it was an Industrious leader, but clearly the only leader with that trait--Huayna--has been falling down in that regard (and several others, evidently, since he's now a mere vassal). Though he did manage to build Chichen Itza; well, big whoop, Mr. Industrious, you built the worst wonder in the game! I'm dead last but at least I managed the Oracle! Russia must have sources of both stone and marble, I'm thinking.
Anyway, that's where things stand. On the positive side, I think I can get the cottage economy going to restore my economy and research. I don't think the tech lead is as insurmountable as it looks so long as I pick my techs carefully.
In that regard, I have a choice: I can either plod along and pick up techs I need that the AI civs already have, or I can gamble on more expensive and advanced techs in hopes of trading them. Frankly, at this point, I'm so far behind that the former approach makes more sense. By the time I nab a tech, everyone else is likely to have it. The only exception might be lightbulbing, but we'll see. I truly believe that a late-game Internet bee-line will be required for a space race win.
The key, I think, is going to be avoiding an invasion, or dealing with one if and when it does occur. Diplomacy is going to be very important. So a conversion to Buddhism might be the key first move in the next round.