A great thinker (um, the moderator of the Russian althist forum actually) once said that the key to alternate history is in parallels. Or something like that. The exact wording isn't important, what is important is that by this method, lots of interesting PoDs could be found.
For instance, there are numerous parallels between the French and the Russian revolutions. No, they weren't at all identical, but IMHO its undeniable that there WERE some parallels, until a certain point anyway. Very possibly that "certain point" was foreign military adventures; Revolutionary France, in the end, did manage to break through the Coalition lines, advancing into Austrian Netherlands and Italy, while Spain was forced to reconcile with the Republic - whereas Russian invasion of Poland, in the end, proved a failure. On the other hand, there are also domestic differences; French Republic never was particularily stable until a certain Corsican First Consul fixed things up and transformed it into an Empire in the process, whereas in Russia, despite all,
Furthermore, there are some great people who, in our world, failed to fulfil their potentials fully. More specifically, we have Joseph Fouche (in OTL, Napoleon's minister of police) and Mikhail Nikolaevich Tukhachevsky (in OTL, a prominent Red Army commander). Both of them had skills and ambitions, but didn't have one vital thing - luck.
That allows us to see two possible alternate timelines:
a) (Inspired by Stefan Zweig's "Fouche") After assisting the downfall of Robespierre in 1794, Fouche doesn't hesitate and seizes the opportunity to fill in the vacuum personally. Heads of Jacobins and enemies of the state roll, but apart from that, under Fouche's rule, France like in OTL Thermidorian period becomes more moderate and relaxed, for a while anyway. The Directory still forms, but Fouche, though unofficially, is the one really in charge. Military adventures are less extravagant - no invasion of Egypt will take place, instead, France will concentrate on fighting in German and Italy. Eventually, the Second Coalition will regroup, and will make temporary gains, but will then once more be repulsed, even though French counteroffensives, due to executions of several key military commanders that followed a failed military coup, wouldn't get very far neither. Eventually, Europe will stabilize in the period of so-called "phony war", with France (plus Belgium, Rhineland, Catalonia, Piedmont), sister republics (Batavia, Helvetia, Cisalpine Republic, Venice, Rome, Naples) and aligned countries (Spain) on one side and a coalition of Britain, Portugal, Prussia, Austria, Holy Roman Empire (a.k.a. lots of tiny German states) and Russia (for a while; afterwards, Russia will turn towards fighting Turks, feeling that its interests are no longer threatened; very possibly Pavel I will hold on to power in this world, and in that case Russia will turn towards colonialism in Asia altogether, fighting a rather more intense Great Game with Britain). A few other ideas - Britain will have more problems in this world, for the lack of Trafalgar or Battle of the Nile (i.e. French fleet remains a threat). If we do leave Pavel I alive, it will also have problems in Central Asia, combined with inevitable strife with USA. For all we know, it might collapse due to overstretch if it fails to crush the French Republic economically. Speaking of France, after Fouche's death it will either stagnate like USSR in OTL, either will be led into a new, decisive revolutionary war against the rest of Europe. By then, it probably won't have to fight Russia, but on the other hand will have to face Metternich's Austro-Prussian Alliance that might end up in a revived, powerful Holy Roman Empire (in response to the French threat). Sardinia and Sicily might be rather like Taiwan in OTL, hiding the governments of Piedmont and Two Sicilies respectively.
b) The "Wonder on the Vistula" never happens - Polish forces are crushed by superior numbers and superior mobility, and Tukhachevsky enters Warsaw triumphantly. This frightens the Entente leaders, who agree to revise the Versailles Treaty, fearful that the alternative would be a communist Germany. Just as the Russian Civil War ended, a new round of violence begun with an European coalition amassed against Soviet Russia, combined with renewed rebellions back at home (Kronstadt and the "Little Civil War"). In the Far East, however, the anti-communist forces face problems as USA clearly doesn't want to get involved in another intervention, but also protests the very possibility of Japan intervenning and thus taking over the Russian Pacific coast. So the Soviets struggle on; the revolution in Germany fails and the Soviet invasion thereof is pushed back, but on the other hand the Baltic States are "put on the socialist path of development". After Lenin's death, the anti-communist Entente launches another offensive, coordinated with a "White Polish" rebellion that pushes the Reds out of Poland altogether. Trotsky briefly takes over but is overthrown by Stalin, Bukharin and Kalinin (who introduce an even more liberal (when compared to OTL; in ATL, Lenin wasn't alarmed enough to introduce it in his lifetime) version of the NEP). The star of Tukhachevsky alarms the "triumvirate of the Politburo", but their attempts to ruin his popularity by sending him into unnecessary military adventures fail as he reconquers Bessarabia and defeats the Entente forces in one of the first real tank battles, at Radom. Eventually, Tukhachevsky takes over Russia himself, annexes the lesser Soviet Socialist Republics into the greater, new Russian Socialist Republic (RSR) and signs a peace treaty with the Entente, recognizing the existing situation (with Poland in Russian hands once more). Emigres are invited to return to Russia, continued economic and social reforms take place, foreign relations are stabilized (trade and other cooperation with the ever-neutral USA becomes particularily widespread (this existed in OTL, but here it is to a much greater extent)) and under this facade, a new war machine was being prepared (along the lines of OTL Blitzkrieg; Tukhachevsky's ideas were pretty much along the same lines). The Red Army was replaced with the New Russian Army (NRA
). Said army prepared for a final assault on Europe that begun in 1933, just after a particularily questionable election in Germany was challenged by a left-wing coalition backed by Tukhachevsky. WWII begun...
As you might have noticed, both ideas are just that, ideas - rough and undeveloped. But they most definitely COULD be developed into something quite interesting (for instance, the Tukhachevsky scenario could be a nice setting for a NES a la stalin006's Toukon). Secondly, I ofcourse didn't change histories of USSR and France blindly - Fouche, for instance, is neither Lenin nor Stalin, if anything he's more similar to Beria, and the geopolitical situation of France isn't exactly like that in the OTL history of USSR as you might have noticed. And Tukhachevsky isn't a copy of Napoleon neither, and a disastrous autumn retreat from Paris probably wouldn't happen. After all, there is only so far that a parallel between two rather different situations could be led.
*goes back to write about the War of French Succession in a world where Conde came to power after the Fronde...*
