Alternate History Thread III

[Reno]

@Cuivienen Was there still a Finnish immigration influx to Ingria (Area south of Sankt Petersburg), thus making the area a Finnish majority area in this PoD?

Yes, I know. It's nitpicking, but it would greatly effect the strategy for whoever rules Finland.

 

[das]

Err... what immigration influx? The Ingrians were there for milleniums.

 

[Cuivienen]

@Cuivienen Was there still a Finnish immigration influx to Ingria (Area south of Sankt Petersburg), thus making the area a Finnish majority area in this PoD?

Yes, I know. It's nitpicking, but it would greatly effect the strategy for whoever rules Finland.

I think so. Though the Swedes (and later, the Scandinavians) never paid much attention to the area, after Finland became independent rather uneventfully (Scandinavia now being more concerned with Britain and colonial affairs), it paid more attention to the area. Finland has aided Poland-Lithuania in wars against Russia and thus retained Ingria.

 

[Reno]

Err... what immigration influx? The Ingrians were there for milleniums.

I'm not talking about Izhorians. I'm talking about Lutheran Ingrian Finns, which in OTL moved there after Sweden gained a hold on the area in the peace of Stolbova 1617.

@Cuivienen Thanks.

 

[Dachs]

Partly to liven up the thread, and partly because I may soon have a good deal of time, I will post an althist with a 1759 PoD sometime in the next week.

Britain and Prussia, obviously, will benefit.

 

[Luckymoose]

Well after playing a game of Civ 2, the WW2 scenario to be exact just a few minutes ago. With a little cheating. I discovered that what if Spain had supported the Axis early enough to be mobolized. Would it have made a huge difference in the war on the axis side?

Spoiler map of civ2 game :

 

[silver 2039]

Well the Spanish could have certainely taken or neautalized Gibrlater with German help thereby closing British naval precence in the Mediterrean, preventing from reinforcing Egypt easily. Also the Germans and Italians would look likley have had Spanish help in North Africa so they could proably have taken Egypt and the Suez Canal thus cutting Britian off from India the Jewel in its Crown and preventing it from reignforcing its Asian holdings which would have fallen even more easily to Japan who would have been able to spare more resources against China, US, and Australia, the vast majority of Britians prosperous colonial Empire would have been lost at the very least... and Britian would lack the manpower and resources it drew from the colonies to support its war effort. The entire course of the war could be drastically changed.

 

[Reno]

Considering the state that Spain was in before and after the civil war, I'd say they'd be the same as the Italians, not ready for a war until later. Their contribution would vary depending on when they would join the Axis, Gibraltar is one of the only major contributions from them. Their colonies in Africa were quite small along with their military presence in there so I don't really think it would effect in the Italian war success and would mean that Rommel would still have to be sent to Africa to save Italy from Defeat. However with Gibraltar closed the British couldn't supply the area as easily, and Rommel could avoid the supply shortage that he faced in OTL. However the Brits still could supply through the Middle East and the suez though not as fast.

 

[Israelite9191]

In this thread I have been debating with luiz what would have happened should the Inka have somehow survived Pizarro and the Spanish conquest of their empire. It was originally started to post a short essay I did last year on Amerindians during the Andean Revolutions, but it somehow ended up on this totally different topic. Here is the link, now discuss!

 

[alex994]

Actually I agree with Luiz. Your comparison with China and the Incas and how the Incas with more dynamic leadership could have prevented what the Qing dynasty failed at is completely incorrect. Do you know why the Europeans didn't make any large efforts to formally conquer huge swathes of Chinese territory? Simply too much people in China, a situation that is completely different then in the Incan Empire. And the fact that conquering China would be contrary to their goal of opening her markets to trade unlike in the Incas where they just wanted all their gold and etc

You must understand, that Europeans saw things out of the potential profits of success, hopeless optimists if you ask me most of the time but let's see. A nation filled with gold, silver, and all other sorts of rare and valuable metals. Sure, they've fought off one small invasion force of less then a thousand men. How long will it take for them to send more? And more? Let's say Spain sends a 5,000 man army a year or two after pizzaro and is defeated.

You think the other Europeans are just going to sit there and let the Incans be? If I were them, this would be a prime time to strike as the Spanish forces should have weakened them severely enough so that when "we" attack we'll destroy them. Not to mention that the Spanish themselves are a very stubborn and determined people. Lose once? They'll just keep on coming at the Incans. Just look at their wars with the Dutch

That's not even mentioning about the pride and piety of the Spanish royalty and her nobility. We got beat by a bunch of primitive barbarian pagans? It's a test by God to determine our faith in converting these pagans (and taking their money) that, and they won't let someone like the Incas get away with insulting them. Yes, the English got away with it, but England isn't made up of people using bronze as weapons, have no gunpowder to speak of and have as rumors have it mountains of gold/silver/ and etc.

 

[EQandcivfanatic]

I have been toying with an alternate history idea. It may seem insignificant at first, but here it is. In the 16th century the French Huegenots established Fort Caroline, a base near the present day city of Jacksonville, Florida. In response the Spanish sent one of their greatest admirals, Menendez to Florida to establish a base and destroy the French. Menendez founded the city of St. Augustine (today the US's oldest city), and wiped out the French force. However much of this was luck. The French fleet defending Fort Caroline was wiped out by a freak storm, while the French garrison was unprepared for an attack and mistakenly opened the wrong gate, allowing the Spanish an easy victory.

Changing either of these factors would definitely result in a French victory in Florida, and like enough result in Florida becoming a Protestant French colonial possession in North America. This has several effects:

1. Spanish Galleons would have had a VERY tough time of making it back to Spain without the base at St. Augustine. We can expect that the Spanish wealth would have been considerably diminished in this timeline compared to OTL.

2. In OTL the Spanish were incapable of mantaining several fronts and Florida was always considered a backwater by the royalty. Therefore in ATL it is likely Florida would remain a French possession and a refuge for French Protestants until the Seven Years' War which likely would have resulted in the historical transfer of Florida to Britian.

3. The lack of the established Catholic Church in St. Augustine would have made a considerable difference in immigration to Florida. Quite likely Protestants from around Europe would have found a home there under the Huegenots, more or less. The English occupation indubitably would have encourged immigration as well.

Therefore, by 1776, likely enough Florida would be a heavily Protestant colonial possession, far more populated than in the OTL. The majority of its citizens would likely be ethnic French, though the English likely would have come en masse after the Seven Years' War, perhaps from the more northern colonies as well.

The Revolution goes as historically with a difference. A predominantly French Florida would be unhappy with the British taxes and Stamp Act as much, if not more than, as the English speaking colonies to the north. Therefore, what if the Revolution began with the Revolt of the 14 Colonies?

So where could it go from there?

 

[Israelite9191]

I think you should first explore the effect of more limited funds on Spain. St. Augustine was definately of necessity to the Spanish connection with their American colonies. Without St. Augustine and Flordia, Spain would be significantly less wealthy. The effects of this i don't know, but it should definately be explored.

 

[EQandcivfanatic]

Perhaps an earlier revolt in Latin America? Or even civil war in Spain. Definitely can consider bankruptcy at some point and perhaps even a lack of the Spanish Armada against England.

 

[Luckymoose]

What about a more powerful Spain which plays a key role in a world war?

I have become fond of Spain lately.

 

[Disenfrancised]

The Revolution goes as historically with a difference. A predominantly French Florida would be unhappy with the British taxes and Stamp Act as much, if not more than, as the English speaking colonies to the north. Therefore, what if the Revolution began with the Revolt of the 14 Colonies?

So where could it go from there?

Ah but would britiain impose taxes and stamp act, they didn't in Canada IIRC, and the British colonial rule (again going by Canada) was seen as preferable to French for a number of reasons. Perhaps it wouldn't have joined the Revolt, becoming independent later on as inevitable differents with britain build up, maybe even taking over french possesions further west?

 

[Israelite9191]

Perhaps Florida might be the center of a later American revolt including the British Caribbean. As I remember it, the Colonists in America tried to persuade the islands to join them, but the islands refused for various reasons. Perhaps with a more importnat Florida more heavily involved with the British Caribbean (seeing as it would be British I would assume that Florida would become a major stop on the trade routes running from New England to the islands) a second American Revolultion centered in the Caribbean might be possible.

 

[EQandcivfanatic]

You may be right, also possible is another British Dominion like Canada or Australia, which would indubitably have side effects when manifest destiny comes along.

 

[das]

Florida is indeed likely to become a second Canada, only perhaps even more loyal (the point about religious differences backfires; I remind you that one of the main causes of the American War of Independence was the Quebec Act and the religious tolerance/retention of French laws in Quebec associated therein). A revolution would be rather unlikely, rather, it will become a key British forward position in the Carribean. This will have an effect on the War of 1812 and the earlier events; the British might easily use it as a springboard for an invasion of Louisiana to preempt the American acquisition thereof, or, if they miss that golden opportunity, it could be used for an earlier and more succesful invasion of Louisiana in 1812.

As a version, the British might check the American expansion westwards operating from Florida; that will ruin Anglo-American relations and reduce the Monroe Doctrine to irrelevance. And that definitely would have lots of interesting consequences... If you're curious, I might try and outline some of them.

 

[Dachs]

That all looks interesting...Paradoxically, I have virtually no understanding of American history, so I'll stay silent on this one.

However, my lack of time has become apparent, and I can't do that Minden PoD althist that I wanted to. Can someone outline or write an althist where there is no George, Lord Sackville (later Germain), whose immediate effects will be felt in a greater Prussian victory at Minden...and later, a greater chance of British success in any later American revolution?

 

[EQandcivfanatic]

@ das, i'm wagering that it would be more likely that Florida would remain without expansion, though I had not previously considered the effects in the War of 1812. My own personal opinion is that the greatest effects would come in the slave-free debates, as the South would be one state short. Polk would likely still go after Mexico as historically, though it is probably also reasonable to consider a later war for Florida like nearly occured in Oregon. However there is to be considered that Florida wouild remain still mostly undesirable land, so unlikely to be a contested region.

The War Between the States would also likely be drastically different if not only for the possibility of a different turn out of the free-slave debates. Perhaps the war could have occured as early as 1856 instead.