Alternate History Thread III

[Disenfrancised]

Displacing the entirety of the native population? Impossible with sedentary agricultural civilizations. There are simply too many of them to wipe out entirely; they would simply become slightly different looking Chinese, but not wiped out. And I beg to differ in the first place, because a wide open continent, with the people literally falling dead at your feet conveniently opening up huge tracts of land, most of it exceptionally fertile... Well, it wouldn't be that bad. Especially since they'd be on the gold-bearing side of the New World...

I'd say that if they could find a decent cross-current (admittedly not an easy task), then they would certainly attempt settlement.

Coming in from the rocky side of the continent would make things rather slower, plus the fact that the agricultural package of Min China isn't that well suited for california would result in things not going quite as quickly as the europeans did on the other side.

 

[North King]

Coming in from the rocky side of the continent would make things rather slower, plus the fact that the agricultural package of Min China isn't that well suited for california would result in things not going quite as quickly as the europeans did on the other side.

There's a veritable array of climates up and down the coasts of the Americas, so I don't really see a reason not to believe that they could settle there. In addition, though the land on the Rocky Mountain side is a "thin strip" by comparison to the rest of the Americas, it's not really all that thin, being over a hundred miles wide and thousands of miiles long. I'd say they could achieve settlement about as quickly as the Europeans (who weren't very quick)... If and only if they set their mind to it. Ming Chinese were too locked in the xenophobic mindset to try and invest in a colony across an ocean, so it would be more likely in the Song era.

 

[das]

There are simply too many of them to wipe out entirely; they would simply become slightly different looking Chinese, but not wiped out.

That works too, doesn't it? Assimilate, integrate, kill all those who resist. I believe that alex994 already wrote in favour of Sheep's use of this conquest strategy in ITNES. Only, the Chinese are somewhat more numerous than the Carthaginians...

IMHO the very IMPORTANCE of a colony far overseas is way overstated; distant colonial empires often took up resources that could be put to much better use elsewhere, for little return. South-east Asia is MUCH closer, thus easier to colonize and control despite the stronger natives, whereas establishing a serious presence in California would simply not be cost-efficient. It would be rightly seen as useless by any reasonable Chinese government - possibly a tertiary priority, but not above that, certainly not until later.

 

[North King]

That works too, doesn't it? Assimilate, integrate, kill all those who resist. I believe that alex994 already wrote in favour of Sheep's use of this conquest strategy in ITNES. Only, the Chinese are somewhat more numerous than the Carthaginians...

IMHO the very IMPORTANCE of a colony far overseas is way overstated; distant colonial empires often took up resources that could be put to much better use elsewhere, for little return. South-east Asia is MUCH closer, thus easier to colonize and control despite the stronger natives, whereas establishing a serious presence in California would simply not be cost-efficient. It would be rightly seen as useless by any reasonable Chinese government - possibly a tertiary priority, but not above that, certainly not until later.

When contemplating conquest, one has to not only take into account your own strength, but the strength of your targets. In the Americas, 95-99% of the population dies upon your arrival. The societies left over are crippled, leaving behind vast amounts of fertile farmland, bountiful fishing grounds, and so on. In Southeast Asia, there is no such disease advantage, the states are fully civilized and much more advanced than the stone age. The only thing that is required to colonize the Amercias is a steady source of investment--wether private or government directed. The land is open and free, compared to Southeast Asia, where thousands of Ming soldiers fought and died to suppress the single nation of Dai Viet. In all estimation, the Americas was a much weaker target, allowing far more expansion there. Especially after the discovery of the gold empires, because the Chinese were no less lusty for the yellow rock than the Europeans were, and the silver in Peru could make a considerable improvement on their silver trading deficit.

 

[das]

I repeat - all of America's advantages are outweighed by its distance. Crossing the Pacific Ocean wasn't impossible, but consider the logistics and the price of actually crossing it on a regular basis to bring in colonists and supplies, and even then without guarantee of success.

Also, how fertile are the fields of California? Dis already brought up the issue of varying agricultures.

 

[North King]

Fertile enough that despite its dense population, it's the fruitbasket of America. Also fertile enough that thousands of Chinese immigrants came there in the 19th century, using their own farming techniques to quite some success. It's a mild Mediterranean climate, most of it getting a decent amount of rain.

And I repeat--the only difficulties are finding a sufficient cross current (voyages of around half a year aren't impossible, though they do tax ships greatly) and finding investment. The former wouldn't take too long, the latter was quite availible during the Song era.

The advantages are only too apparent, once you find them empires of gold.

 

[das]

You still have only partially addressed the problem of distance. And how does one conquer "empires of gold" without transporting an army there (which also needs to be supplied)?

 

[North King]

Same way as the Spanish did--march in even as they're being leveled with smallpox. This isn't particularly hard. And you are somewhat exaggerating the distances involved. The Song were accomplished sailors with some of the best ocean-faring craft in the world, and around the same time, Polynesians in outriggers were colonizing Hawaii.

 

[das]

I do not doubt that the Song (although, what the hell are they doing here? We were discussing the althistorical Min Dynasty, if I recall correctly...) could have DISCOVERED America; but I doubt that they could have established a large, permanent settlement in California. The Viking chances for establishing themselves in Vinland were higher, but they too failed, and I doubt that the Chinese had any chances of being more succesful, at least until more advanced technology appears.

I also still think that America just isn't cost-efficient; there are many closer regions on which resources and troops could be expended, regions that are far more important for China's well-being and safety.

 

[North King]

I was dicussing the possibility of China discovering America, and colonizing it. They certainly could have discovered it, and I have no doubt that they could have colonized it, too. Viking warships were, forgive me, but rather technologically pathetic compared to the ships of the Song dynasty. Much larger and more seaworthy, the Son would be well equipped for expansion across the Pacific Ocean so long as they had a reason (America), and investments (easy to come by).

And given the fact that it would be self motivating (as, indeed, most European colonization was; Song Dynasty China had a large middle class and enough investors to make sure that it would be a funded colonization effort), the fact that the government would expend relatively little effort is meaningless. After all, three caravels were a pittance to the King of Spain, but they opened up a whole new world. A few thousand soldiers, again, very little, were enough to conquer Mexico, and only a few hundred to conquer Peru. England's actual navy had little effect on the colonization of the Americas until much later. It was private investment that fueled expansion into the Americas, and so it would be for a Song Empire (which, given the fact that it's practically under siege by the Jin, would have plenty of motivation to seek out new lands).

 

[Cuivienen]

Given the sheer size of the Chinese population, it would be entirely possible for a group of 5,000 or so Chinese to settle the Californian coastline and Central Valley under a Ming or Song colonization plan, then, once the government at home got sick of wasting effort on trans-Pacific voyages, them being stranded there. Of course, they would then establish a separate civilization and probably intermingle with whatever native survivors of smallpox and other diseases there were, but a culturally Chinese California would not be out of the question.

I think you are badly underestimating the Central Valley's fertility; it is easily the most fertile part of the United States, and is probably second only to Las Pampas in terms of fertility worldwide.

 

[das]

Viking warships were, forgive me, but rather technologically pathetic compared to the ships of the Song dynasty.

Again, that doesn't matter - it is rather easier to cross the north Atlantic than to cross the Pacific.

(which, given the fact that it's practically under siege by the Jin, would have plenty of motivation to seek out new lands)

Then why didn't it seek them out in OTL at all? Not even Taiwan. Colonialism just wasn't as profitable for China - even Song China (which was notoriously peaceful anyway) - as it was for European powers, which is why China limited itself to simple commerce on all occassions when it was a maritime power.

And this discussion started out with the specific situation of Min China in mind (with alex994 asking about the possibility of discovering America).

 

[North King]

But yes, it does matter. The vast technological superiority of the fu-chan over the longship negates the ease of crossing the Atlantic. The Song can just as easily cross the Pacific.

Taiwan, as you no doubt know, is not at all like the Americas. The natives didn't die off, the land was small and fairly poor, and it was, all in all, less profitable with more risk than the Americas would be.

Not to mention, if some records can be believed, the Chinese did seek out new lands in the East, but black treachery by a fleet admiral negated that plan.

And I don't care where the discussion started out.

 

[das]

Taiwan is far CLOSER. It is just off-shore. It doesn't make sense at all for the Chinese to colonize California if they didn't even colonize Taiwan.

China has never pursued the policy of colonizing oversea territories. Like all the Asian powers, it, in the times of its greatest maritime involvement, concentrated on commerce. The Song merely traded; the more ruthless Ming traded and imposed puppet rulers where necessary, and I suppose that they could have founded a pseudo-colonial empire like the OTL European ones in South-East Asia. IMHO China just isn't a colonial power by its nature - it is too agrarian, its population (in its majority) is too tied to the land (admittedly, there were disturbances in the population pattern in the times of the Song; but they simply resettled the refugees from the north in southern China, and saw no need for further lebensraum). At maximum they could have established trade outposts in the Americas, but I rather doubt that this would have been all that profitable, so it is far more likely that a maritime Chinese empire would concentrate on the Indian Ocean - as it did in OTL - gradually securing all the key trade centers in the region. It would take a severe overpopulation crisis to force China to build a REAL colonial empire, but even then, it is easier to build it in, say, Australia, Manchuria and other sparsely-populated territories, or in South-East Asia, which could have been conquered if the Chinese really needed extra territory all that badly

Not to mention, if some records can be believed, the Chinese did seek out new lands in the East, but black treachery by a fleet admiral negated that plan.

If the human factor can prevent (note: prevent, not delay or hinder) an event, then it probably isn't a terribly likely event.

 

[alex994]

*looks at all the above posts, records them down for future reference*

Ah, you do understand that South East Asia has the most annoying terrain of all right? Those blasted Jungles that make such excellent defense and destroys Chinese armies by the hundreds of thousands every century or two makes things quite ah... unprofitable.

Manchuria would have been hardly a choice for expansion for land for China. They never was able to defeat the Mongols and the other nomads until the Qing Dynasty. (as you may attest to das, destroying my Manchurian colonies in ITNES )

There were indeed several overpopulation crisises during China's history, but even then nothing was done about it. The fact that the Emperors by then had become corrupt and decadent beyond imagination pretty much let the common people rot. Of course, if there was a different Emperor....

 

[das]

...then he would have been poisoned in early age, and rightly so.

 

[Lord_Iggy]

The Viking chances for establishing themselves in Vinland were higher, but they too failed, and I doubt that the Chinese had any chances of being more succesful, at least until more advanced technology appears.

The Vikings were less city-based than the western European colonizers, so they carried fewer diseases and had less of the 'depopulation' advantage.

 

[alex994]

...then he would have been poisoned in early age, and rightly so.

*sniff* Most likely by powerful enunchs who didn't want an active Emperor. That reminds me, how powerful are the enunchs in Min China?

The Vikings were less city-based than the western European colonizers, so they carried fewer diseases and had less of the 'depopulation' advantage.

And their weapons technology was also pretty much at the same level as the people they found.

 

[Thlayli]

China could colonize America in the 16th century, or it could perhaps not. It'll depend on several factors, including luck, preparation, investment, technology, and the quantity of the bribe payments I receive.

 

[alex994]

If it makes you feel better thlayli, I'll leave Guangfei to another country in LINESII as a "bribe"