Daftpanzer
canonically ambiguous
OK, there are now 72 hours (AKA 3 days) to get your input in.
Lord_Iggy said:What about Sezat?
I sense a note of bitterness![]()
Call me biased if you want, I'm afraid I just don't see a way around the effects of their relative isolation throughout history, and it will be harder for them to match the eurasian powers. It seems that whatever happens, eurasians have more influences to draw from and more inspiration/incentives to change things. That said, I do imagine the Panto as being more advanced in many ways than the Argine Empire for example.
Maybe just a tad
I dunno, the whole development of the Americas is so radically different from the OTL that I guess I thought it would be less of a "Europe crushes and subjugates" theme and they would be on a more even footing (or at least closer to one).
Luckymoose said:Daft can you wait until tomorrow for me to send my orders? I am on a celebration day right now.
Nick014 said:I dunno, the whole development of the Americas is so radically different from the OTL that I guess I thought it would be less of a "Europe crushes and subjugates" theme and they would be on a more even footing (or at least closer to one).
The disease period has already passed.
I know, but:
The Americas had ~70 million inhabitants when Columbus arrived from what I remember. Let's say that in this alt-timeline that number was larger: ~100 million (also, daft forgot about terra preta until after the Columbian exchange, so South America's population wasn't as large as in OTL, but w/e). 90-95% mortality rate means that ~5-10 million survived. Let's say that they had a fast natural growth rate (not accounting for other factors yet): 100% every 100 years. That means they'd have ~30-45 million. However, that's not accounting for my "kill those damn natives already" attitude. Almost-constant warfare, imo, would... halve the growth rate maybe, which would bring the population to ~15-20 million. By those guess-timations, the Panto would have ~5 million people right now.
Intrude: This is not a cogent argument, and it's the second time I've seen it used. Some things happen the same way no matter what other changes are made because of the iron law of statistics. Disease is one of them.If I wanted a verbatim repeat of the OTL I'd go read one of my old history books.
Intrude: Um, no--that worsens it significantly. I'm going to hazard a guess and say you know nothing at all about how diseases spread.I would keep in mind that contact in this NES happened quite slowly, and that North America was particularly well-developed and populous, thus significantly, though by no means completely, cushioning the blow of disease.
I'm very aware that larger, more cramped populations make disease epidemics much more severe- however, living in urbanized situations will have increased the number of diseases a group is exposed to. Livestock in the Americas is certainly different than Old-World livestock, but surely it would also confer some immunological improvement. In combination with a long time between contact and colonization, I would expect that Native American civilization would come out much better than it did in our timeline.Intrude: Um, no--that worsens it significantly. I'm going to hazard a guess and say you know nothing at all about how diseases spread.
Having more people means more vectors for spread of the disease, even if contact is less frequent. It will spread faster, they will have just as little (read: no) immunity, and far more of them will die, more quickly (having bigger and more interconnected populations). All the resistance they gain to diseases is from local sources, not Eurasian ones--given a lot of human diseases originate with our livestock, even a greater local resistance will not help them in the slightest, because their livestock will be different. Biological warfare is a zero-sum game. Think of it like you would MAD. Two populations will exchange diseases, crippling one another. The bigger one with greater genetic variation will win. Eurasia beats America on that every single time.
Furthermore, if contact is sporadic, and one-way, a high population density in the Americas functions like a slow version of biological "shock and awe"--waves of disease rippling across the continent with little chance of blowback. Again, you want to do it for situational interest, fine. Just don't go defending it as if it has some basis in reality, because it doesn't.