Alternate Timeline Building Experiment, v1.0

[Symphony D.]

I'm very aware that larger, more cramped populations make disease epidemics much more severe- however, living in urbanized situations will have increased the number of diseases a group is exposed to.

Intrude: Imagine that your population has been continually exposed to Influenza, such that you are by and large resistant to it. I then introduce Ebola. Most of you die regardless.

There is no "generic" defense against diseases. You have a defense against whatever is around you. If something totally foreign shows up, you're screwed. Eurasian diseases were, and would always be in any scenario, totally foreign to the people of the Americas. It doesn't matter how many people the Americas have, they will still die in droves. The only question is whether any significant diseases cross back to Eurasia and do similar damage.

[EDIT] Try finding examples of where exposure to one disease confers some identifiable benefit against some other, totally different disease. You will find hardly any at all.

 

[Disenfrancised]

however, living in urbanized situations will have increased the number of diseases a group is exposed to.

Till the mid-18th century (in europe, later elsewhere) cities were always population sinks, as more people (especially infants) died from disease and poor sanitation than could be replaced by population growth. They had to be topped up from the countryside (who came for the jobs and fun of the city)

Your also rather missunderstanding disease - each one is unique, you do not get a blanket immunity from having faced more. Thus the more populated americas will have faced more disease, but that will not give them any immunity to the independently derived eurasian ones.

Edit: Symphony wins again!

 

[Lord_Iggy]

Okay, I see. So even if there was some resistance due to some similar strains of diseases on opposite sides of the ocean (IE: Cowpox offering immunity to Smallpox), it wouldn't be enough to prevent terrible epidemics. Now, I suppose that what we can take from this situation is that:

A: The Americas didn't have many diseases, because nothing significant spread into Eurasia.
B: The Old World didn't press its advantage at the very beginning, allowing the still heavily-damaged New world to recover and rebuild somewhat before the human onslaught began.

 

[Disenfrancised]

Okay, I see. So even if there was some resistance due to some similar strains of diseases on opposite sides of the ocean (IE: Cowpox offering immunity to Smallpox)

The diseases on different megacontinents, having crossing from animal populations in independent events are very unlikely to have immunological similarities.

Plus you don't just 'recover' from having 90% of your population wiped out - you crash down to a lower technological level like the Mississippi cultures did (and the Mesoamericans and Incans would have if the Spanish hadn't curb stomped them first).

 

[Symphony D.]

(IE: Cowpox offering immunity to Smallpox)

Intrude: Both cowpox and smallpox are on the same side of the ocean. There are no cows in the Americas. Smallpox is a cousin of cowpox (and likely descended from it or something very much like it) which is why the inoculation works--not that anyone but milkmaids got cowpox anyway prior to the discovery of immunization--modern disease prevention theory has no place here. A disease and its cousins are either somewhere, or they aren't. Given the overwhelming devastation of Eurasian diseases on the Americans, it can be easily deduced that no relatives were present locally.

B: The Old World didn't press its advantage at the very beginning, allowing the still heavily-damaged New world to recover and rebuild somewhat before the human onslaught began.

I'm quite curious how one rebuilds from losing 95% of one's population within a few centuries, when it took at least ten thousand years to build up such a population in the first place. While having things like "Republics" in the aftermath too (that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish).

 

[Lord_Iggy]

I was thinking that some bovine diseases might exist in both old and new worlds, given the use of Buffalo in several American Countries (I do not know if that is possible- mutations would probably happen quickly, and the diseases would become separate strains requiring different antibodies). As for rebuilding- I'd wait until Daft gave a specific number for a death rate before getting into a discussion about rebuilding.

 

[Symphony D.]

I was thinking that some bovine diseases might exist in both old and new worlds, given the use of Buffalo in several American Countries (I do not know if that is possible- mutations would probably happen quickly, and the diseases would become separate strains requiring different antibodies).

Intrude: Buffalo aren't domesticated or even tamed. Cross-species disease transfer occurs only in routine and extremely frequent contact (ie: in wintering stalls). The Americas have no domesticable megafauna other than alpaca and llama--therefore the odds of a disease transferring are exceptionally low. In fact, none did.

As for rebuilding- I'd wait until Daft gave a specific number for a death rate before getting into a discussion about rebuilding.

We're talking in the general here rather than as relates to this in particular, as it's evident that none of this has happened to the degree it would have. The casualty rate would be about the same even with plus or minus 200 years deviation from OTL point of contact. 90-95% fatality rates from the witch's brew of diseases Eurasians have would be about the average--you can't really get around it.

Again, just to make it clear, I'm not criticizing Daft's decisions, and I understand them, I (and I believe Disenfrancised) are simply explaining how this actually works. qoou's comments are from a realist position--while that has little bearing on what Daftpanzer has chosen to do, it's important to understand why they're important and not just a "verbatim repeat of the OTL."

 

[qoou]

As a sort of a side note, it's kind of disconcerting to me that you seem hell-bent on completely destroying my nation from more than just a role-playing perspective. No one likes god-moders who use commands like "I just annexed you" or "The diseases killed off all your people". This isn't a competitive game, you don't need to try so hard to make your case.

Sorry if I gave you that impression: "my 'kill those damn natives already' attitude" was referring to the almost-constant warfare in the last two turns (that was actually a really bad way to express myself). I really don't expect daft to even notice this little discussion: I just posted that for argument's sake.

Wow, this much sleep deprivation really sucks: first I'm mean to Sheep on the dipNES thread and now this . Damn addicting LAN Counter-Strike that takes up so much of my time that could otherwise be devoted to sleep...


Edit:
Oh, well it looks like Symph and Dis already won my argument for me. Time to get back to focusing on my actual orders.

 

[qoou]

Imperial Aarut Republic
Modernize the navy as much as possible. Also modernize and enlarge the army (try to introduce naval innovations, such as machine guns maybe, into the army). Strongly focus on industrializing the homeland (and the colonies).
Continue our policy of economically annexing friendly native states until we can politically annex them later. Also continue our vast privateering activities. Start using the privateer fleet, and the royal fleet too, to wreak havoc against natives that hate us. Make the backwards Argine hand over all vestiges of authority over their colonies to us.
Continue our wars against the Panto and Dahukat (get ships in the great lakes somehow?). We can probably use our fleet to annex the whole Panto coast, so do that. Sail some ships up the Mississippi and wreak havoc there too. Any who surrender and agree to become de jure politically annexed by us will be spared. Any others shall die.
Continue our economic and political expansion into [Canada].

Due to the Savisians' actions (and other things), I foresee that a wave of liberalism will sweep Europe, and maybe the Middle East. The Aarut people will react to this by wanting a bit more, but dissent will not grow much as the Aarut are already pretty liberal compared to their neighbors. The Aarut government may or may not make the Imperial Republic more liberal; depends on specifics like the North American war, the Amestrian war if the Aarut enter, etc.


Rosk Empire
Advance military as fast as possible. Deluge some more. Ask all of the Amestrian Empire's neighbors for help, except for the dirty democrats (will be explained later) in Furotoca. Just keep waging war on them until they collapse. Only sign a peace with them when they're reduced to a little scrap of an empire and the Rosk Empire extends all the way to the south.

The Rosk will react to the wave of liberalism through pure hate. Thanks to governmental propaganda, and maybe victories against the Amestrians, most people will hate democracy with passion. Those few that are smart enough will mostly remain quiet, unless/until a disaster strikes Rosk.

If the Rosk manage to extend their borders to the Furotoca, they will quickly sign a peace with the Amestrians. They will then start a... "war on democracy" (they'll only war with the source, Furotoca, not all their neighbors too). This will lead to a significant worsening of relations with their more liberal neighbors. Battle-hardened, propaganda-fed Rosk troops will start pouring into the Furotoca, immediately killing all who have a position in the government of Furotoca and violently putting down pro-democracy revolts.


Poneb Empire
The Poneb Empire will start a wave of industrialization and modernization. They'll keep expanding east and into the Marzhung empire if possible.

The wave of liberalism should be weakened by the time it hits them. The government will react with indifference and ignore the existence of these new ideas. The people will mostly remain ignorant too, although some will campaign for liberalization.


Olan in the former Lanverg Kingdom
If significant industrialization/modernization reaches the former Lanverg Kingdom, the people there will get very angry and even go as far as to form unorganized rebellions. If the Aarut agree to stop industrialization/modernization, most rebel will lay down their arms; otherwise, they'll remain irate.


Geldut Kingdom
Shake in fear. Try to industrialize when they're not busy diplo-ing for their life.

The Geldut government will react to the wave of liberalism with pure fear and give in to the demands of the people.

 

[Daftpanzer]

Thanks for the orders

I'll be online for about another hour, if there is anymore input/orders/etc. Doesn't have to be more than a few words.

---

About the disease issue... I admit I'm no expert on how diseases work, and yes for situational interest I didn't want to have an update where all the native American states suddenly got wiped out.

Anyway, heres a quadruple of limp retrospective excuses: First, we have the Waeluta people sailing around the north pacific, making a possible bridge for diseases from around 650 AD. And later, others going to Iceland and even to north-west asia. Assuming that’s even possible, I like to naïvely think it would soften the blow as Lord Iggy said. Although, Symphony D's posts are making me doubt on that.

Second, natives are more organised, starting earlier in history, so even though societies might revert a few steps due to disease or whatever, they rarely return to a completely tribal/nomadic lifestyle. There's a wider zone of civilized culture between mexico and southern US area, with more influences and exchanges going on, which tends to prevent collapse in the wake of deadly plagues.

Thirdly, the first foreigners had no real ambitions beyond trade. No militant Christianity, for example (no shared religious/imperial tradition like OTL Rome).

Fourthly, I do wonder if the effects of disease, and old world superiority in general, have been slightly (just slightly ) exaggerated in certain books that Symphony D. and others may have read. Again I'm very far from being an expert, but I have seen some counter-opinions expressed online.

Combine that with the decay of time/space integrity caused by the presence of Space Hamster bases on the far side of the moon, and I think we can explain anything that’s happened so far .

As for the Panto 'Republic', I went with Nick014's name, to avoid making up some random term. The top level of power is something like the traditional idea of a republic, but I imagine the rest being a mix of tribal peoples and urbanised areas, all with different levels of technological development. Not sure if there's any OTL term to describe that.

 

[LightFang]

Tiandishi Empire

Too much power in the hands of Mingdebu fanatics should probably have led to a war that was way over their heads with the Takaraji (sp?) Union...but as such a thing did not happen I will assume that the influx of technology tempers their fanaticism.

Also it would be nice to push the remaining Saikara influence off the East Coast of OTL China.

Sorry for the terrible orders but I have a paper which I've been procrastinating for literally months to work on!!

 

[flyingchicken]

Fourthly, I do wonder if the effects of disease [...] have been slightly (just slightly ) exaggerated

The King of the North will have your head for this!

 

[Nick014]

As for the Panto 'Republic', I went with Nick014's name, to avoid making up some random term. The top level of power is something like the traditional idea of a republic, but I imagine the rest being a mix of tribal peoples and urbanised areas, all with different levels of technological development. Not sure if there's any OTL term to describe that.

The way I saw it was sort of like a bunch of culturally and politically autonomous
regions united with one military. Perhaps "confederation" would be a better term.

@qoou- no hard feelings aginst you personally, but the Aarut swine will be purged from our lands at all costs!

 

[Luckymoose]

Alright, lets go!

 

[North King]

Plus you don't just 'recover' from having 90% of your population wiped out - you crash down to a lower technological level like the Mississippi cultures did (and the Mesoamericans and Incans would have if the Spanish hadn't curb stomped them first).

No, the Mississippian cultures generally fell before the Europeans ever got to North America. That is to say, Cahokia collapsed before then, because there really was no other urban settlement of Mississippians. Generally a nation was either conquered immediately after the epidemics came through, or another group rose to prominence. There was some recovery, it just wasn't by the same power elite, and in some cases not by the same groups at all.

There was therefore often a fall in sophistication, but not always. Another problem is that we really don't have a good example from a heavily urbanized culture; most of them fell to Europeans before they could recover.

Oh, and Daft, the potency of the diseases is not exaggerated. Smallpox alone was responsible for the deaths of at least 90%, if not 95-98% of Native Americans. As noted above, I could see a recovery to some degree, but it would be very dicey. If I were you, I'd just say this world lucked out.

 

[Daftpanzer]

I've been meaning to update tonight and the past couple of nights, but just haven't had enough time Hopefully I'll get it finished tomorrow.

Oh, and Daft, the potency of the diseases is not exaggerated. Smallpox alone was responsible for the deaths of at least 90%, if not 95-98% of Native Americans. As noted above, I could see a recovery to some degree, but it would be very dicey. If I were you, I'd just say this world lucked out.

Where do you get those figures from? I don't doubt that its very high, but that seems a little too high. What about all the effects of slavery, warfare, and birth-rates falling due to change in lifestyle and being forced out of traditional areas etc? And then there's interbreeding with foreigners and adoption of their culture, which surely accounts for another portion of the 'disappeared' natives. So yeah, I'd say above 90% deaths is not realistic.

 

[North King]

Then you'd be disagreeing with demographers, epidemiologists, and statisticians. You can do that, you'd simply be wrong.

Sorry, but I don't want to have to debate this again, so refer to this as it's the most concise post in a longer argument.

 

[Daftpanzer]

Hopefully I'll get it finished tomorrow.

That turns out to be more Epic Failure, but here is map preview:

-EDIT: update is now posted on next page-

Then you'd be disagreeing with demographers, epidemiologists, and statisticians. You can do that, you'd simply be wrong.

OK I recognize you actually have some substantial stuff on your side, but I still maintain that the exact truth is unknowable and the best any of us can have is an educatated guess biased by our personal opinions .

 

[mythmonster2]

Wow, looks like my Empires did rather well!

 

[Symphony D.]

OK I recognize you actually have some substantial stuff on your side, but I still maintain that the exact truth is unknowable and the best any of us can have is an educatated guess biased by our personal opinions .

Intrude: Yeah, that "evidence" and "science" and "facts" stuff has never done anybody one whit of good and is all just guessing, isn't it?