Are we experiencing the calm before the storm?

[Lillefix]

The last decades have been relatively peaceful for the western world. There have been no great war between developed country for decades. And apart from former Yugoslavia, there haven't been any civil wars in the western world either. Of course there's has been the occasional terror attack, but compared to a real war that's nothing.

But now I feel that tensions are rising. At the moment economies seem to be crumbling. I think the current situation will be solved, but as some guy once said: When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

But seriously. What will happen if capitalism has finally run it's course for the western world, and the European and American economies completely fail. Is it possible that some countries will elect untrustworthy politicians into office, like the Germans did in 1933, and everything will escalate from there? Or will we just live with our miserable economies like the Japanese have done for the last twenty years?

 

[luiz]

Why would the Japanese feel desperate? Yes, their economy is stagnant for decades, but they still have very high living standards, low unemployment, etc. It's the same with Europe. There's no urge to radicalize, as in the 30's, because people have too much to lose. Even during the bad times.

 

[emzie]

It's hard looking forward to see where and how a war between developed nations would break out. Maybe 40 years hence, with hindsight, this post will look extremely naive.

 

[Cutlass]

The economies will come back eventually. But the best times may not return for a long long time. There's been far too much of a turn to conservatism. However the governments of all the major powers remain stable. So no one can fall into a situation like the rise of the Nazis and have the power to export that through war. Only China and India have the physical power to be a threat to other strong nations on their borders. Russia could take some weak nations on its border, but not to the extent of kicking off a major powers war.

 

[wilycoyote]

The last decades have been relatively peaceful for the western world. There have been no great war between developed country for decades. And apart from former Yugoslavia, there haven't been any civil wars in the western world either. Of course there's has been the occasional terror attack, but compared to a real war that's nothing.

But now I feel that tensions are rising. At the moment economies seem to be crumbling. I think the current situation will be solved, but as some guy once said: When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

But seriously. What will happen if capitalism has finally run it's course for the western world, and the European and American economies completely fail. Is it possible that some countries will elect untrustworthy politicians into office, like the Germans did in 1933, and everything will escalate from there? Or will we just live with our miserable economies like the Japanese have done for the last twenty years?

I think this entire post is hyperbole and overly pessimistic. The EU and USA economies are still the two largest in the world. It will take a century of recession to even see them surpassed, let alone completely fail. I am not of the opinion that China's economy will grow like it has forever. But, even if it does, the EU and USA economies will still be top three.

 

[Godwynn]

The American people and their righteous might will not allow another Great War to happen.

 

[wilycoyote]

The American people and their righteous might will not allow another Great War to happen.

You mean, unless aliens invade, and then we will save the world, right?

 

[aelf]

I'm under the impression that the Nazis did not rise to power chiefly because Germany was in dire economic straits but because of the Nazis' clever exploiting of fear. In that regard, there sure is the potential for something similar in the near-ish future, although that doesn't mean something like the Holocaust or WWII would happen.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Capitalism will not have run its course until things actually start to break down or an alternative is presented capable of raising mass support. And both isn't on the horizon nor does anything indicate so.
Fiscal defaults are no such sign, it just means some tough years and tough doesn't mean hungry-tough, just relative bad job-opportunities-tough. Historically, no big deal. You need hungry-tough.
The second option: a viable alternative (viable in the sense of perceived as viable by a "critical mass") is - unfairly - summarized in the past Eastern bloc and hence lacks any serious legitimacy.

Now and as long those two options are not met, I predict that the Western world continues to live in relative peace. But of course, things can be crazily unpredictable. Always.

 

[Core Imposter]

The last decades have been relatively peaceful for the western world. There have been no great war between developed country for decades. And apart from former Yugoslavia, there haven't been any civil wars in the western world either. Of course there's has been the occasional terror attack, but compared to a real war that's nothing.

But now I feel that tensions are rising. At the moment economies seem to be crumbling. I think the current situation will be solved, but as some guy once said: When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

But seriously. What will happen if capitalism has finally run it's course for the western world, and the European and American economies completely fail. Is it possible that some countries will elect untrustworthy politicians into office, like the Germans did in 1933, and everything will escalate from there? Or will we just live with our miserable economies like the Japanese have done for the last twenty years?

The Japanese and the EU and to some extent many others have been subsidized by US deficit defense spending which will at some point recede. So don't expect the US and EU economies to been able to choose the Japan route to economic zombiedom.

The actual plan is a slow burn: controlled inflation designed to reduce the debt. The key there is keeping an ignorant public in its natural state. This will however not work. A day will come when the public catches on and in an instant every dollar will chase any percieved safe harbor from gold to property to a case of booze. Thus the emperor's new suit of clothes will be recognized as the hoax it is and the panic will be out of hand.

Then follows after that the consequences. Whole populations having seen the complete and utter evaporation of what they thought was wealth, life savings, nest eggs and safety nets will then be ushered into the same world now inhabited by the working poor and street level gang worlds. Hence, any thug offering a sense of pride and the ability to make the trains run on time will be hailed with fervor and awe.

Yes. It is happening again. With the delicious happenstance that we are all nuclear capable on the front end now.

You should try to think it through though. Capitalism isn't the problem. Markets don't fail. They simply operate. GIGO. Garbage in garbage out. All the woes stem from moral failure just as it has from the mists of the beginings of our time.

Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Central government, the desire for it or the desire to sustain it is always the catalyst for the slaughter of the innocents and the destruction of liberty.

 

[Godwynn]

The Japanese and the EU and to some extent many others have been subsidized by US deficit defense spending which will at some point recede. So don't expect the US and EU economies to been able to choose the Japan route to economic zombiedom.

The actual plan is a slow burn: controlled inflation designed to reduce the debt. The key there is keeping an ignorant public in its natural state. This will however not work. A day will come when the public catches on and in an instant every dollar will chase any percieved safe harbor from gold to property to a case of booze. Thus the emperor's new suit of clothes will be recognized as the hoax it is and the panic will be out of hand.

Then follows after that the consequences. Whole populations having seen the complete and utter evaporation of what they thought was wealth, life savings, nest eggs and safety nets will then be ushered into the same world now inhabited by the working poor and street level gang worlds. Hence, any thug offering a sense of pride and the ability to make the trains run on time will be hailed with fervor and awe.

Yes. It is happening again. With the delicious happenstance that we are all nuclear capable on the front end now.

You should try to think it through though. Capitalism isn't the problem. Markets don't fail. They simply operate. GIGO. Garbage in garbage out. All the woes stem from moral failure just as it has from the mists of the beginings of our time.

Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Central government, the desire for it or the desire to sustain it is always the catalyst for the slaughter of the innocents and the destruction of liberty.

That'd make a great fiction novel. Hell, I'd read it before any of the Harry Potter books.

 

[Murky]

There is a rough ride ahead, but I doubt if it will result in another world war. The main things that are dragging the world down is massive amounts of debt and crony capitalism.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

I'm under the impression that the Nazis did not rise to power chiefly because Germany was in dire economic straits but because of the Nazis' clever exploiting of fear. In that regard, there sure is the potential for something similar in the near-ish future, although that doesn't mean something like the Holocaust or WWII would happen.

What does "similar" mean, exactly? Victor Orban? Fear and hope and their (more or less) clever exploitation are the main ingredients of any political movement btw.

@MisterCooper
I can see you to be a great replacement for Glenn Beck's show. Have you ever been an alcoholic or did you ever rape a girl by any chance?

 

[Core Imposter]

The economies will come back eventually. But the best times may not return for a long long time. There's been far too much of a turn to conservatism. However the governments of all the major powers remain stable. So no one can fall into a situation like the rise of the Nazis and have the power to export that through war. Only China and India have the physical power to be a threat to other strong nations on their borders. Russia could take some weak nations on its border, but not to the extent of kicking off a major powers war.

I must tip my hat to you for your absolutely blemishless record of never having once uttered a single word or thought here that was anything other than exactly and perfectly wrong. You leave me baffled as to how you manage it so well. Odds would seem to suggest you would get something right once in a blue moon by mistake, but no. You run a tight ship.

Perhaps among mortal men only Paul Krugman is your equal in purity of delusion.

Just your statement alone that governments have remained stable is a display of denial that is so preposterous one can't be sure you aren't just leveling us in every respect.

 

[aelf]

What does "similar" mean, exactly?

Repressive authoritarian regimes built on fear and hatred?

 

[Cutlass]

The Japanese and the EU and to some extent many others have been subsidized by US deficit defense spending which will at some point recede. So don't expect the US and EU economies to been able to choose the Japan route to economic zombiedom.

The actual plan is a slow burn: controlled inflation designed to reduce the debt. The key there is keeping an ignorant public in its natural state. This will however not work. A day will come when the public catches on and in an instant every dollar will chase any percieved safe harbor from gold to property to a case of booze. Thus the emperor's new suit of clothes will be recognized as the hoax it is and the panic will be out of hand.

Then follows after that the consequences. Whole populations having seen the complete and utter evaporation of what they thought was wealth, life savings, nest eggs and safety nets will then be ushered into the same world now inhabited by the working poor and street level gang worlds. Hence, any thug offering a sense of pride and the ability to make the trains run on time will be hailed with fervor and awe.

Yes. It is happening again. With the delicious happenstance that we are all nuclear capable on the front end now.

You should try to think it through though. Capitalism isn't the problem. Markets don't fail. They simply operate. GIGO. Garbage in garbage out. All the woes stem from moral failure just as it has from the mists of the beginings of our time.

Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Central government, the desire for it or the desire to sustain it is always the catalyst for the slaughter of the innocents and the destruction of liberty.

If you think markets never fail then you've never learned anything about markets. Market failures is freshman level stuff. You can't reach the point of advanced study of markets without full knowledge that market failure is as common as dirt.

 

[Cutlass]

I must tip my hat to you for your absolutely blemishless record of never having once uttered a single word or thought here that was anything other than exactly and perfectly wrong. You leave me baffled as to how you manage it so well. Odds would seem to suggest you would get something right once in a blue moon by mistake, but no. You run a tight ship.

Perhaps among mortal men only Paul Krugman is your equal in purity of delusion.

Just your statement alone that governments have remained stable is a display of denial that is so preposterous one can't be sure you aren't just leveling us in every respect.

The US has had how many revolution since the traitors were put down in 1865?

 

[Antilogic]

Has anyone been paying attention to Hungary recently? Some of their constitutional changes are alarming to say the least. However, Hungary isn't exactly the foreign country that tops the "fear list".

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Repressive authoritarian regimes built on fear and hatred?

Fear from what? Hatred against whom? I am asking those questions because the reasoning (a hyperbole, I beg your forgiveness) "uncertain economic times -> fears -> that's something the Nazis used -> authoritarian regimes built on fear and hatred" strikes me as very simplistic and inconclusive.
@Antilogic
Yeah, it is pretty outrageous that the EU hasn't drawn a line in the sand. At least it is my understanding that the EU requires members to in principle embrace it, which Hungary seems to have ceased doing. But, like Romania and other nations, Hungary never stroke me as a settled democracy to begin with.

 

[Masada]

I'm already positioning myself for a fascist takeover. Just saying. That's where the smart (Goldman Sachs') money is.